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  • A little noise to end the week (1)
Viola G Daantje Neumann wrote: Anthony I congratulate you with your site,this show me all that I want to know about this Huricane... [more]

  • Tropical Storm Erika Open Thread (4)
Anthoy wrote: Thanks for the updates Eric! It took me about 5 minutes to load this page to read these - hopefully ... [more]

  • GOES Atlantic Floater 2 (3)
Phyllis Hall wrote: I am located on St. John and so far, the sun is shinning and no showers. We're expecting rain tonig... [more]

  • THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS (2)
Anita wrote: Hi Anthony, thanhs for the update. will keep in touch enjoyed your week bye bye... [more]

  • TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 (2)
Anthony wrote: I would just pay attention to the NHC website - most people are using their info anyway: <a href="h... [more]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102009 500 AM AST THU OCT 08 2009

ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED NEAR THE
ESTIMATED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...THE CONVECTION IS POORLY
ORGANIZED AND PROBABLY TRANSIENT. HENRI HAS A VERY SMALL
CIRCULATION THAT CONTINUES TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...DIAGNOSED AT AROUND 20 KT BY THE SHIPS MODEL.
THEREFORE...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN
12 TO 24 HOURS IF NOT SOONER. THE SHEAR IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OR SHEAR AXIS SITUATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...
HENRI OR ITS REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
200 MB ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST EAST OF FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH THE
SHEAR OVER HENRI OR ITS REMNANT DISTURBANCE WILL PROBABLY LESSEN
SOMEWHAT IN A DAY OR TWO...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE SHOULD PRODUCE A LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE FOR RESTRENGTHENING.

SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE MOTION CONTINUES AT AROUND 285/13.
HENRI OR ITS REMNANT LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR
EVEN A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BECOMES
INFLUENCED BY A STRONG MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EXTREME
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

MIAMI (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Henri formed in the Atlantic Ocean, east of the Caribbean's Leeward Islands, on Tuesday, but was expected to dissipate within two days, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

The eighth tropical storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season had sustained winds of 40 miles per hour (65 km per hour) and was located about 600 miles east of the northern Leewards at 5 p.m. EDT (2100 GMT), the hurricane center said.

The system was moving to the west-northwest at 18 mph on a path that would keep it well north of the Caribbean islands in the near future, the center added.

Henri was moving through an area with high wind shear, forecasters said. Wind shear is a difference in wind speeds at different altitudes that can tear apart nascent cyclones.

"The cyclone is expected to weaken to a depression over the next 24 hours and most of the global model fields show Henri dissipating by 48 hours," the hurricane center said in a statement.

Computer models disagreed on the future for the remnants of the cyclone. Several took it to the southwest in the direction of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, the island shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic. One had it headed out into the open Atlantic.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082009 500 PM AST FRI SEP 25 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED SUFFICIENT CONVECTION AND CIRCULATION TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES BASED ON BANDING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND 25 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO GOOD IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING 10-15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AFTER 12 HR OR SO...WITH THE FORECAST TRACK LIKELY TAKING THE CYCLONE NEAR AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BY 48 HR. THIS...COMBINED WITH A TONGUE OF COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE ENCOUNTERING CONDITIONS THAT SHOULD CAUSE DISSIPATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 12 HR...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HR AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 96 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/12. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS GENERAL MOTION TOWARD AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAKNESS IN THE LOW/MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO...THEN TURN NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS BEFORE DISSIPATION.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED... CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.

2. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL SOON BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED IS
CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 2009

...ERIKA FORMS EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES ISSUED...

AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF ST. MAARTEN.

AT 5 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST.
KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA.

AT 5 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...U.S. AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST OR ABOUT 390
MILES...625 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.2N 57.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS COULD BE DEVELOPING A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM TO SEE IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS FORMED. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR...MORE LIKELY...A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE... GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THOSE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

2. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...BUT IT
STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION
CENTER. HOWEVER...SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM DANNY...LOCATED ABOUT 355 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANNY...LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

1. A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT
350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009 500 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT DANNY IS VERY DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE IN A BAND 100-150 N MI FROM THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 1500 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 49 KT AND ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 40-45 KT FROM THE SFMR. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT. THE AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 300/10...UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THE STORM SEEMS TO BE DECELERATING...AND THE CENTER MAY BE OCCASIONALLY RE-FORMING DUE TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. DANNY IS NORTH OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA AND SOUTHWEST OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTER EAST OF BERMUDA. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER DANNY GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO. AFTER THAT...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES MOVING EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE DANNY TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES. WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE SCENARIO...THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT LAND AREA DANNY MAY AFFECT. THE ECMWF... UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST THE CENTER TO PASS NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AND THEN MAKE LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS AND GFDL SHOW THE CENTER PASSING EAST OF HATTERAS AND THEN PASSING NEAR OR OVER CAPE COD. THE HWRF AND NOGAPS...AS WELL AS THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODELS...SHOW THE CENTER PASSING EAST OF CAPE COD AND NEAR OR OVER NOVA SCOTIA. OVERALL..THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE U. S. EAST COAST...AND ANY DEVIATION FROM THE TRACK COULD MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN WHAT AREAS GET IMPACTED BY DANNY. THEREFORE...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS TOO MUCH ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL LOWS NORTH AND SOUTH OF DANNY CONNECTED BY A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS. THIS IS NOT A IDEAL PATTERN FOR STRENGTHENING...AND IT MAY TAKE 24 HR OR MORE FOR THE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. IN ADDITION...THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE STORM FAVORS SLOW STRENGTHENING AT BEST. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 36 HR. IT THEN SHOWS A FASTER STRENGTHENING FROM 36-48 HR AS CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. AFTER 48 HR...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN U. S. TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE INCREASED SHEAR AND INITIATE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WHICH COULD START BEFORE DANNY REACHES THE LATITUDE OF NEW ENGLAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DANNY TO REACH 65 KT IN 72 HR...THEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 96 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS WEAKER THAN THE FORECASTS OF THE GFDL AND HWRF.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE WAVE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 20 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST AT THE BORDER BETWEEN COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

1. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 275 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009 500 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2009

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT BILL HAS JUST ABOUT FINISHED ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE... AND NOW HAS A 48 N MI WIDE EYE. THE AIRCRAFT ENCOUNTERED 120 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL...AND A DROPSONDE IN THE AREA SUGGESTS SURFACE WINDS OF 90 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 960 MB. BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 90 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.

BILL HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 345/19. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE. BILL IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR BETWEEN A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AFTER 48 HR...THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD IN THE WESTERLIES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 48 HR DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE NEW FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

BILL SHOULD REMAIN IN LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...AND THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME. AFTER 24 HR...COLDER SSTS AND INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE BILL TO WEAKEN. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT ABOUT THE 48 HR PERIOD AND BE COMPLETE BY 72 HR...AND THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF BILL ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY CROSS THE ATLANTIC.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY BILL ARE BEGINNING TO ARRIVE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...CAUSING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE MASSACHUSETTS COAST...AND THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT NOW SHOWS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THAT AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL TRACK DEVIATIONS TO THE WEST WOULD REQUIRE ADDITIONAL WARNINGS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009 1100 AM AST WED AUG 19 2009

A NOAA P-3 PLANE ON A RESEARCH MISSION HAS BEEN PROVIDING EXCELLENT DATA FROM BILL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE WAS A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 132 KNOTS TWO HOURS AGO AND THE SFMR REPORTED PEAK WINDS AROUND 105 KNOTS. DATA FROM THE PLANE ALSO SHOW THAT BILL HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD AND A 30 NMI WIDE EYE. THE LATEST EXTRAPOLATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 950 MB. ALTHOUGH THE RING OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE T-NUMBERS REMAIN AROUND 6.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115 KT IN THIS ADVISORY. THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION SINCE BILL IS HEADING FOR A WARMER OCEAN AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. HOWEVER...MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY IN THIS PERIOD CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE OCEAN IS COOLER AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN... BUT BILL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH FIVE DAYS.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING CURRENTS AND BILL CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS AROUND THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...FORCING BILL TO TURN NORTHWARD A GOOD DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...WHICH IN FACT HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT IN TURNING BILL NORTHWARD FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

BECAUSE BILL IS A LARGE AND STRONG HURRICANE...SWELLS TRIGGERED BY THE HURRICANE SHOULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...BERMUDA AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009 500 AM AST TUE AUG 18 2009

...BILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.7 WEST OR ABOUT 810 MILES... 1305 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND BILL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION... LOCATION...15.5N 49.7W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.