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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT SUN SEP 5 2010
The former Gaston needs watching:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 5 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND THE LOW COULD
REDEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS IF ADVISORIES ARE
RE-INITIATED. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT... OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
2. SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 AM EDT SAT SEP 4 2010
September is traditionally the busiest time of hurricane season, and this season is no different. The remnants of Gaston are making noise, and unfortunately the earlier track had this heading straight into the Caribbean basin. We'll have to wait and see if it reforms into a Tropical Storm again and what the new track is, but it bears watching. There is also another potential system behind it.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 4 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 105 MILES
EAST-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.
1. THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE NEAR AND TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. IF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
FORM NEAR THE CENTER...THEN ADVISORIES COULD BE RE-INITIATED ON
THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.
3. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
4. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA IS
LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION OF THIS
SYSTEM. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
3 tropical storms at one time is really too much to handle - and as I write this, there appears to be a large wave coming off the coast of Africa yet again. First the good news for the Caribbean - Earl is gone from the region, and Fiona is quickly pulling away.
The bad news is newly formed Gaston. Sometimes with this much activity there isn't a lot of fuel left for storms that come behind others on the same track, but the NHC is talking about this reaching hurricane status even though there is a lot of dry air around.
It is a little early for the tracking but at this point it appears to be heading toward the northern Leeward Islands. The best hope is that the ridge that steered Fiona north is still in place by the time Gaston gets close and it follows the same path. But it needs to be watched closely for now.
This is a recent photo - you can see the remains of Danielle, Earl, what is to become Fiona, and the system behind. The red indicates the warmth of the water, which feeds the strength of these hurricanes.
Hurricane Earl is pretty much done with the Caribbean. There are still some watches up for the Turks & Caicos and Bahamas, but it is pulling away an will be an east coast U.S. problem for the next several days. It appears it was a property damage type of storm on most islands - I have not seen any reports of deaths. There are several islands without power, etc. and it may take some weeks for all to be back to normal.
Tropical Storm Fiona is forecast to veer northward and not reach hurricane status - there are some >watches and warnings up for Leeward Islands but this doesn't look like a serious storm at the moment.
There is also another area that the NHC is watching off the Cape Verde islands. So, considering that the tropics are "hot" as they say in meteorological circles, you should be actively monitoring the situation as a resident or tourist.
And don't forget that trip insurance is only good if you buy it before a storm is named. If you are traveling to the Caribbean between now and the end of hurricane season (November), buying trip insurance is probably not a bad idea (yes - we sell it as an affiliate - and we use it ourselves too!).
Also please remember that you can take your email off this list at any time by using the unsubscribe option in the left column of this page.
Let's hope the NHC has the science right on this one - so far it looks weak, and tracking further north than Earl. That would be good:
TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
500 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2010
...TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 48.7W
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FIONA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.7 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON WEDNESDAY. ON
THIS TRACK...FIONA COULD BE NEAR OR JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
Islanders have set up emergency shelters and airlines have canceled flights as Hurricane Earl continues to churn toward the northern Caribbean. Cruise lines have diverted ships to avoid the storm's path.
Hardware stores have done a brisk business in plywood and boards as residents and hotel employees prepare to safeguard windows and doors against Earl.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said late Sunday Earl has strengthened into a category two hurricane with winds of 160 kilometers per hour. The storm is expected strengthen further.
Weather forecasters predict Earl will be a major hurricane by late Monday as it approaches the northernmost Leeward Islands.
OUTER RAINBANDS OF EARL APPROACHING THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
2:00 PM AST Sun Aug 29
Location: 17.4°N 58.9°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 978 mb
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010
...OUTER RAINBANDS OF EARL APPROACHING THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA AND
BARBUDA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 58.9W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
BY A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE
58.9 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...
24 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
TUESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
Miami, Florida (CNN) -- Forecast to gain "major" Category 3 status, Hurricane Earl was bearing down on the northern Leeward Islands Sunday, the National Hurricane Center said.
Earl became a Category 1 hurricane on Sunday. As of 11 a.m. ET, its center was located about 225 miles (360 kilometers) east of Antigua and about 315 miles (510 kilometers) east of St. Martin. Packing maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 kph) and higher gusts, Earl was heading westward at near 17 mph (28 kph).
EARL HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN A HURRY
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010
...EARL HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN A HURRY...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 54.2W
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENTS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...AND
ANGUILLA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND FOR
THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.2 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL APPROACH
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE
ON SUNDAY. A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE AREA SOON AND GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY
AND SIZE OF EARL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
Earl is expected to become a hurricane within 24 hours. Here are the latest watches and warnings:
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010
...EARL CONTINUES HEADING WESTWARD AT A GOOD CLIP...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 51.2W
ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.2 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EARL COULD APPROACH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
We have an active storm cycle - two named storms, and one brewing. Earl could impact the Caribbean and needs to be watched. The system behind it, if it tracks lower than Earl, can also pose a risk to the region.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 27 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 585 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...AND ON
TROPICAL STORM EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 1525 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS.
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
The tropics are heating up - this storm arrived ahead of forecast:
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010
THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...TROPICAL STORM EARL...HAS
FORMED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...ONE WEEK EARLIER THAN CLIMATOLOGY.
HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS
CONTINUE TO GROW AND THE CONVECTION...BOTH IN CLUSTERS AND CURVED
BANDS HAS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB
AND SAB HAVE REACHED 3.0 AND 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE INDICATING
THAT THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 35 KNOTS. MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS SHIPS GUIDANCE DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT OF
RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE LOW SHEAR
COMBINED WITH UNUSUALLY WARM OCEAN WOULD FAVOR A GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR EARL TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN ABOUT TWO DAYS.
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/14 KNOTS. MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM AFRICA TO NEAR 60 DEGREES WEST. THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL
LIKELY KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3
TO 4 DAYS. A GRADUAL TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE REACHES THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FIVE DAY FORECAST
POSITION WAS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT...AND IS BASICALLY ON
TOP OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF LOCATION FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. THIS WAS
BASED ON THE REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF THESE TWO RELIABLE MODELS
IN FIVE DAYS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A
LITTLE BIT...THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS TO
THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. LETS SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN THE
NEXT MODEL CYCLE.
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