Caribbean-On-Line's Caribbean Hurricane Blog

Tropical Storm Karl:




Current Tropical Cyclone Activity


Caribbean & Atlantic Tropical Storms & Hurricanes 2016

Name Start End Tropical Storm Hurricane
Hurricane Alex 1/13/2015 1/15/2016
Tropical Storm Bonnie 5/27/206 6/4/2016
Tropical Storm Colin 6/5/2016 6/7/2016
Tropical Storm Danielle 6/19/2016 6/21/2016
Hurricane Earl 8/2/2016 8/6/2016
Tropical Storm Fiona 8/17/2016 8/23/2016
Hurricane Gaston 8/23/2016 9/3/2016
Hurricane Hermine 8/31/2016 9/6/2016
Tropical Storm Ian 9/12/2016
Tropical Storm Julia 9/13/2016
Tropical Storm Karl 9/15/2016
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tobias
Virginie
Walter

Caribbean & Atlantic Tropical Storms & Hurricanes 2015

Name Start End Tropical Storm Hurricane
Ana 5/8/2015 5/11/2015
Bill 6/16/2015 6/18/2015
Claudette 7/13/2015 7/14/2015
Danny 8/18/2015 8/24/2015
Erika 8/24/2015 8/28/2015
Fred 8/30/2015 9/6/2015
Grace 9/5/2015 9/9/2015
Henri 9/8/2015 9/11/2015
Ida 9/18/2015 9/27/2015
Joaquin 9/27/2015 10/7/2015
Kate 11/8/2015 11/11/2015

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Recent Posts:

Tropical Storm Karl forms

Published on September 15, 2016 11:44 PM | Comments

It won't get close to the Caribbean until next week, and right now the forecast is wobbly - but Karl has formed (giving us 3 names storms at the same time!) in the far eastern Atlantic.

Right now forecast models seem to have it north of the Caribbean islands as it approaches the region next week, but again it is a long way off and there is a lot of time for things to change - we'll be keeping an eye on it.

TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 PM AST THU SEP 15 2016

During the past six hours, a significant increase in the amount and
the organization of the deep convection has occurred near and over
the well-defined low-level circulation center. The southwestern edge
of the cold cloud canopy, characterized by tops as cold as -89C, has
continued to expand southwestward over the center despite
southwesterly vertical wind shear of 20-25 kt. The initial intensity
has been increased to 40 kt based on a constrained Dvorak satellite
estimate of 35 kt form TAFB, but with a data T-number of T3.0/45 kt
using a shear pattern. A 15/2247Z partial ASCAT-B pass indicated
several 35-36 kt surface wind vectors in the northeastern quadrant
more than 60 nmi from the center. Based on continued improvement in
the satellite presentation since the ASCAT pass, the initial
intensity is set at 40 kt, making Karl the eleventh named storm of
the season.

Karl is moving westward or 275/11 kt. The cyclone is expected to
move westward and then west-southwestward around a strengthening
Atlantic subtropical ridge for the next 48-72 hours. After that
time, the ridge is forecast to weaken some, allowing Karl to turn
back toward the west and then west-northwest by day 5. The new NHC
forecast is essentially on top of the previous advisory track, and
lies close to the multi-model consensus TVCX and the Florida State
Superensemble model.

Karl is expected to remain in a moderate to strong vertical wind
shear environment for the next 36 hours or so, which should inhibit
significant intensification. After that time, however, the shear is
forecast to decrease to around 5 kt for the remainder of the
120-h period. That would normally result in more robust
strengthening while the cyclone is moving over 28-29C SSTs.
However, Karl will also be moving through a very dry mid-level
moisture regime during that time, so the intensification trend is
forecast to be much slower than the climatological rate of 20 kt
per day, and lies close to the SHIPS intensity forecast.

The large 34-kt wind radius in the northeastern quadrant is based on
the aforementioned ASCAT wind data.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 17.9N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 18.0N 34.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 18.0N 37.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 17.8N 39.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 17.5N 42.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 17.1N 47.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 17.8N 52.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 19.0N 57.0W 60 KT 70 MPH



Tropical Storms Ian and Julia

Published on September 13, 2016 11:19 PM | Comments

A couple of storms formed in the last 48 hours - Ian is an Atlantic storm that is way out to sea and not forecast to become a hurricane - this storm looks to be a shipping concern only.

Julia popped up late today in the very northeastern corner of Florida and is heading almost due north - forecast to fall apart to a tropical depression by Thursday.

So things are active but the Caribbean region is in good shape.

There is one more active tropical wave way out across the Atlantic:

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, located a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers. Slow development of this disturbance is possible during the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday.

We'll be keeping an eye on it!



Disturbance to Watch

Published on September 10, 2016 9:27 PM | Comments

There is some messy weather in and around the Caribbean basin that is not anything major, but the National Hurricane Center is tracking a system (number 1 in the image - 90% chance of tropical formation within the next 5 days) that is still about 1,000 east of the Lesser Antilles that should be monitored:



Atlantic 2 Day Forecast September 10, 2016



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is moving slowly northwestward. Satellite imagery
indicates that the circulation has become better defined today, but
the associated thunderstorm has not become any better organized in
the past few hours. Conditions are still favorable for a tropical
depression to form by during the next day or two while this
disturbance moves toward the northwest over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

2. An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located north of Hispaniola
remains disorganized. There are no signs of a surface circulation,
and conditions are not expected to be conducive for significant
development of this system while it moves generally west-
northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

3. A weak area of low pressure located over the extreme southeastern
Gulf of Mexico remains devoid of thunderstorm activity. Upper-level
winds are not favorable for development, and the low is forecast to
weaken while it moves westward to west-southwestward at 5 to 10 mph
into the central Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent



Another disturbance in the region

Published on September 4, 2016 6:18 PM | Comments

There is a tropical wave oving across the Lesser Antilles - development chances are slim, so hopefully it just brings the always much needed rain for cisterns (along with some windy conditions):

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Hermine, located off of the mid-Atlantic coast of the United
States.

1. A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure, is
moving across the Lesser Antilles. This wave continues to produce
a large area of showers and thunderstorms and gusty winds.
Significant development of this system appears unlikely while it
moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the Caribbean Sea during the
next several days. Regardless of whether or not development occurs,
this wave will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty
winds over portions of the Lesser Antilles through early Monday and
should spread over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent



Three Storms

Published on August 31, 2016 8:31 PM | Comments

There is a lot of Tropical weather action in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, but no direct threats to the Caribbean region:

  1. Hurricane Gaston - category 2 storm, but way out in the Atlantic
  2. Tropical Storm Hermine - headed for the Florida panhandle and then through the lower Atlantic states... could spoil the holiday weekend in NJ and NY
  3. Tropical Depression 8 - off the North Carolina/Virginia coast and headed further out to the Atlantic
  4. atlantic storms august 30 2016.png

    So nothing much for the Caribbean to worry about for the next several days.



    Tropical Weather Update

    Published on August 23, 2016 9:11 PM | Comments

    We have had some people ask so here is what is going on currently:

    • FIONA is done - the NHC issued their last advisory at 11 EST today -

    • GASTON is a tropical storm and expected to get to hurricane strength by Wednesday, but tracking well east of Bermuda -

    • There is another tropical depression east of the lesser Antilles - this is the only system that could threaten the Caribbean currently, and it could strengthen but the forecast is not confident - yet. This area bears watching (from the NHC):

      As of 8:00 pm EDT Tue Aug 23 2016... Satellite images, surface observations, and radar from the Lesser Antilles indicate that a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave a couple of hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles has become a little better defined. Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for development, this system could become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph near the Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles. Conditions could become more conducive later this week while the system moves near the southeastern and central Bahamas. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this disturbance tomorrow, if necessary. Interests from the islands of the northeastern Caribbean Sea to the Bahamas should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Gusty winds, heavy rains, and possible flash floods and mud slides could occur over portions of these areas regardless of tropical cyclone formation.


    Tropical Storm Gaston

    Published on August 23, 2016 8:42 AM | Comments

    TD 7 has become Tropical Storm Gaston. It doesn't look likely this far out that this storm will be an issue of the Caribbean region or The Bahamas, and may even skirt east of Bermuda. The season has begun to heat up, but the current trend at least is favorable to the Caribbean.



    Multiple Disturbances

    Published on August 22, 2016 9:55 PM | Comments

    The NHC is reporting on several systems - Tropical Depression Fiona is weak and looks to be meandering safely between The Bahamas and Bermuda.

    There is a depression behind Fiona, and then there is TD seven, which looks like it could become a hurricane eventually but seems to be tracking east of Bermuda. So - lots of disturbed weather but nothing that looks too threatening to the Caribbean at this moment. We'll keep an eye out this week for sure -



    Tropical Storm Fiona

    Published on August 17, 2016 10:07 PM | Comments

    The bad news - Tropical Storm Fiona has formed in the Atlantic. The good news - it doesn't seem to be tracking anywhere near the Caribbean. The bad news - it is far out and several days away, but it looks to be on a bee line to Bermuda.

    BULLETIN
    TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016
    500 PM AST WED AUG 17 2016

    ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO SIXTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON OVER
    THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC......

    SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...15.1N 37.8W
    ABOUT 920 MI...1480 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was
    located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 37.8 West. Fiona is
    moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A motion toward
    the northwest or west-northwest with some decrease in forward speed
    is expected during the next couple of days.

    Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
    higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the
    next 48 hours.

    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
    from the center.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None.

    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.



    Hurricane Earl Summary

    Published on August 17, 2016 9:58 PM | Comments

    Hurricane Earl was the deadliest Atlantic hurricane to impact Mexico since Hurricane Stan in 2005. The fifth named storm and second hurricane of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season, Earl formed from a tropical wave south of Jamaica on August 2. The precursor to Earl brought torrential rainfall and flooding to the Lesser Antilles. Upon classification, tropical storm warnings were issued for the coastal areas of Belize, Honduras, and the southern portion of the Yucat√°n Peninsula. The warnings were extended and upgraded when Earl reached hurricane status. On August 4, Earl made landfall south of Belize City. Upon landfall, some of the warnings were discontinued. Following this, Earl exited in the Bay of Campeche and followed the coastline as it restrengthened slightly. This prompted more tropical storm warnings for the Mexican coast.

    Prior to Earl becoming a tropical cyclone, 13 people died in storm-related incidents across the Dominican Republic. Striking Belize as a Category 1, the hurricane caused extensive damage; losses to agriculture exceeded US$100 million. Heavy rain in Mexico triggered many landslides, several of which proved fatal in the states of Puebla, Hidalgo, and Veracruz; at least 54 people died in the country. Lesser effects were felt in neighboring countries in Central America.

    hurricane-earl-satellite-image-2016.jpg




    Disturbance in The Atlantic

    Published on August 16, 2016 9:15 PM | Comments

    It's way out there - and who knows at this point where it will end up, but the NHC seems to think the chance of organization is high. We'll be keeping an eye on it:

    Atlantic Ocean Satellite

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
    located about 650 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
    have become more concentrated and better organized during the past
    several hours. If this development trend continues, advisories
    would be initiated on a tropical depression tonight or Wednesday.
    This system is expected to move generally northwestward over the
    open waters of the central Atlantic during the next several days.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent




    2 Lows in the area

    Published on August 6, 2016 10:20 AM | Comments

    The NHS is posting info on two separate areas of unsettled weather this morning. Neither look to have much potential to develop into anything major at this point, and if they do they don't look like they would affect the Caribbean basin - the larger one could become an issue for the Bahamas by sometime next week. We'll keep an eye out but it looks like if you live or are traveling to any Caribbean islands this weekend you'll be fine!

    Caribbean Tropical Outlook

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    800 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Depression Earl, located well inland over Mexico west of Veracruz.

    1. An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a trough of
    low pressure is located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Some
    gradual development is possible before the system moves inland over
    the southeastern United States in a couple of days. Regardless of
    development, heavy rainfall over northern Florida is anticipated.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

    2. A tropical wave is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers
    just north of Puerto Rico and the adjacent Atlantic. An area of
    low pressure could form in the middle of next week between
    Florida and Bermuda while the activity moves west-northwestward
    and then northward over the Atlantic.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent



    Earl makes it to hurricane status

    Published on August 3, 2016 11:16 PM | Comments

    It isn't a very powerful storm and isn't forecast to maintain hurricane status for long, but unfortunately it will probably be quite an issue for Belize and parts of Guatemala and Mexico, with rainfall totals up to 18 inches!

    HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
    1000 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016

    Earl has been under close surveillance by Air Force and NOAA
    Hurricane Hunter planes and the Belize Meteorological Service radar
    this evening. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters found peak 700 mb
    flight-level winds of 72 kt which converts to a surface wind of 65
    kt, and this is used for the advisory intensity. Belize radar
    imagery shows that the eyewall has been fluctuating between an open
    and closed structure over the past several hours. There is little
    time left for Earl to strengthen before the center reaches the
    coast, and no significant intensification is anticipated before
    landfall. A steady weakening trend will commence after the
    tropical cyclone moves inland. Based on the latest track
    guidance, the center is forecast to only barely emerge into the
    extreme southern Bay of Campeche on Thursday, and this should limit
    reintensification at that time. Earl is expected to become a
    remnant low and dissipate over the high mountains of south-central
    Mexico by the weekend or sooner.

    Earl continues to move slightly north of due west or 280/13 kt.
    The cyclone remains embedded in a well-defined steering flow to the
    south of a large and slow-moving mid-tropospheric high pressure
    system. Little change has been made to the previous official
    forecast track and the current NHC forecast remains close to the
    multi-model consensus.

    After landfall, the biggest concern with Earl is rainfall. Global
    models depict the system becoming enveloped within a much
    larger-scale cyclonic gyre that will cover much of southern Mexico
    in a couple of days. This weather pattern will likely lead to
    copious rains, with isolated precipitation totals of 18 inches
    possible.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 04/0300Z 17.4N 87.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
    12H 04/1200Z 17.7N 89.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
    24H 05/0000Z 18.2N 91.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
    36H 05/1200Z 18.5N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
    48H 06/0000Z 18.8N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
    72H 07/0000Z 20.0N 98.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
    96H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED



    Tropical Storm Earl forms in the western Caribbean

    Published on August 2, 2016 10:21 PM | Comments

    Tropical Storm Earl finally cropped up today in the western Caribbean Sea:

    TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
    500 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

    An Air Force reconnaissance plane investigated Earl a few hours
    ago and measured flight-level winds of about 54 kt in the northeast
    quadrant on its last leg. It also measured a minimal central
    pressure of 1002 mb. Another Air Force plane will be in Earl
    tonight along with the NOAA P3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft. The
    satellite presentation has not changed significantly during the day,
    and Dvorak T-numbers, along with the plane data, yield an initial
    intensity of 45 kt. Global models have consistently forecast a
    little better environment, and the NHC forecast calls for some
    strengthening. Earl could be near hurricane strength as it
    approaches the Yucatan peninsula and Belize.

    It appears that Earl has slowed down as anticipated, and is
    now moving westward or 275 degrees at 14 kt. The cyclone is
    embedded within the deep easterly flow on the south side of a ridge.
    This flow pattern will continue to steer Earl on a general west to
    west-northwest track with a gradual decrease in forward speed across
    Belize and the Yucatan peninsula during the next 2 days or so. After
    that time, Earl will likely move over the southern portion of the
    Bay of Campeche where it could re-intensify some. There is good
    confidence with this track scenario, and the NHC forecast very
    closely follows the multi-model consensus.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 02/2100Z 16.4N 81.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
    12H 03/0600Z 16.5N 83.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
    24H 03/1800Z 17.0N 86.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
    36H 04/0600Z 17.5N 88.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
    48H 04/1800Z 18.0N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
    72H 05/1800Z 19.0N 94.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
    96H 06/1800Z 20.0N 98.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
    120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

    This storm doesn't look like it will have much more effect on the Caribbean islands we cover here, so we probably won't be doing much more reporting on it.



    CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING WARNING

    Published on August 1, 2016 4:29 PM | Comments

    The NHC is discussing but not naming a strong area of weather that is currently in the Caribbean basin. This morning on the satellite images it definitely looked like something, here is what they are currently saying:

    A strong tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic with axis extending from 21N71W to a 1007 mb low near 16N72W to 12N72W. A gale warning is in effect for the southwest area within 90 nm and 45 nm from the wave's axis. The tropical wave and low are moving west at about 15-20 kt with numerous showers and thunderstorms from 14N-20N between 68W-74W affecting Hispaniola at this time. This system has a high chance of tropical development within the next 24-48 hours. Please see the Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details.

    See this page also - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php - there is a high chance that this turns into a named storm and tracks to the Yucatan peninsula.

    And here is the latest outlook:

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    1. A strong tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea, centered
    about 275 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, continues to
    move quickly westward at about 20 mph. Thunderstorm activity
    associated with the wave remains organized, but the system still
    appears to lack a closed surface circulation. Environmental
    conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development,
    and a tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight. An
    Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to
    investigate this system late this afternoon. Regardless of
    development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, perhaps to
    tropical storm force, will continue over portions of the Dominican
    Republic and Haiti through this evening. Tropical storm conditions
    are likely to occur over Jamaica by this evening, and could reach
    the Cayman Islands overnight. Interests in these areas and
    elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor
    the progress of this disturbance. For additional information, see
    High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

    High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
    found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
    the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

    Forecaster Brown