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Published on October 18, 2013 7:58 AM | Comments
With no major Caribbean storms since Gabrielle over a month ago, the Caribbean basin remains quiet and the National Hurricane Center predicts that to remain the situation for the next several days. Overall the season has been much tamer than originally forecast, and the central Caribbean area has seen less named storms than the Gulf of Mexico. A strange season for sure, but certainly welcome. The less hurricanes, the better for everyone.
There is not much left to the season but we will be watching - safe travels!
Published on September 11, 2013 11:06 AM | Comments
There is a lot going on out there, but nothing immediately threatening the Caribbean, which is our focus here. The worst news is that Gabrielle is a Tropical Storm again and is currently over Bermuda. There are several other systems, including Hurricane Humberto, which is way out in the Atlantic and does not appear to be any threat to the Caribbean.
Things seem to be heating up a bit and we are in the heart of the season, which the experts have recently downgraded. We'll be watching closely in the coming weeks.
Published on September 5, 2013 12:37 PM | Comments
Well the mess of weather in the Caribbean basin has turned into Tropical Storm Gabrielle. I don't know about other people but I am having a hard time getting to the NHC website to read the latest discussion, etc.
This is from NBC news:
MIAMI -- Tropical Storm Gabrielle brought heavy rains to Puerto Rico and neighboring islands Thursday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
It had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph as it moved northwest at 8 mph, according to a 5 a.m. ET update that had the storm about 40 miles south-southwest of Ponce, Puerto Rico.
Although it was expected to strengthen slowly through the weekend, experts said it had little chance of growing into the season's first hurricane.
We will be posting more ASAP. The ECMWF does not show anything on their maps so I guess this is not forecast to be a major storm, but obviously it is a lot of rain for the islands in the path.
Published on September 3, 2013 11:50 PM | Comments
The NHC is not making it sound like this has much of a chance to become a tropical cyclone, but it is still a large weather system in the Caribbean basin that could be bring a lot of rain and wind to some islands:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 3 2013
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT INTERACTION WITH THE LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO COULD INHIBIT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND SPREAD OVER
PUERTO RICO BY LATE WEDNESDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE TOMORROW
2. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.
Published on August 15, 2013 7:54 AM | Comments
There are a couple of systems that bear watching at the moment - one is almost certain (according to the NHC) of ending up as a Tropical Storm, but appears to be a Gulf of Mexico storm. The other is way out in the Atlantic, barely off the coast of Africa, but looking fairly well organized at the moment and could be, could be, a Caribbean threat (notice the mention below of the ECMWF model saying it degrades as it hits dry air - the ECMWF has been a very reliable model in the last couple of years). That one is already called TD 5.
From the NHC for TD 5:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
500 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH TOPS
COLDER THAN -80C HAS FORMED NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER...AND
THERE IS OUTER BANDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BELOW TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH...SO THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN A 30-KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS
ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THIS INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/14. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...AND
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL STEER THE
CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE
GUIDANCE DIVERGES. THE GFS...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE
CANADIAN MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM TURNING WESTWARD. THE ECMWF...THE
UKMET...AND THE GFDL SHOW A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION...WITH THE CYCLONE MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS
SHOWN A NORTHWARD SHIFT SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. SINCE THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW DURING
THIS TIME...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A WESTWARD TURN IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. WHILE THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 48 HR...IT IS WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE ECMWF...THE UKMET...THE GFDL...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME
STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE SYSTEM REACHES COOLER WATERS IN 48 HR OR
SO. WHILE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO LEAVE THE COOLER WATERS AFTER
THAT TIME...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER VERY DRY AIR AND WEAKEN...WITH THESE MODELS
SHOWING THE SYSTEM DEGENERATING TO A TROPICAL WAVE BY 120 HR. THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT YET FOLLOW THAT SCENARIO...AS THE
SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW A STEADY-STATE OR STRENGTHENING SYSTEM.
INSTEAD...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW WEAKENING AS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES.
And for the area of disturbance near the Yucatan:
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DECREASED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10
MPH AND SHOULD REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY. BY
FRIDAY...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER WESTERN CUBA...THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND
INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
We'll have more updates and information later in the day - it is a moving day here and we'll be on the road for most of it!
Published on July 29, 2013 6:46 PM | Comments
The NHC is reporting on the remains of Dorian:
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
REMNANTS OF DORIAN...LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO...CONFIRM THAT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...THE DISTURBANCE IS POORLY
ORGANIZED WITH THE LOWEST SURFACE PRESSURES WELL REMOVED FROM THE
MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION TO
OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TODAY...AND COULD
SPREAD ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
To me I think it is sort of strange that they (the NHC) come out with these storm tracks as soon as a storm is formed, when so many of the storms disappear, and they were never on good footing to begin with (meaning, yes, a tropical depression turned into a storm, but the environmental conditions and models clearly showed that it would not last). The ECMWF (which has been spot on with hurricanes the last couple of years) had Dorian as a not event from the beginning, yet their forecast seemed to be pretty much ignored by the NHC.
Published on July 25, 2013 10:40 PM | Comments
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
500 PM AST THU JUL 25 2013
AFTER A BRIEF DISRUPTION IN THE INNER CORE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...DORIAN HAS MADE A COMEBACK WITH A BURST OF
COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. IN ADDITION...A 1728Z TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED A
NEARLY CLOSED LOW-LEVEL EYE HAD DEVELOPED BENEATH A WEAK MID-LEVEL
EYE FEATURE. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 KT
AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...AND AN EARLIER ASCAT-B
OVERPASS AT 1230Z INDICATED SURFACE WINDS OF AT LEAST 48 KT NORTH
OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/16. SEVERAL OF THE MORE RELIABLE
MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS RUN OFF THE NEW WCOSS SUPERCOMPUTER...MADE
A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWARD SHIFT ON THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DID NOT SHIFT SOUTHWARD...BUT RATHER
CONVERGED EVEN MORE TIGHTLY AROUND THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST
TRACKS. AS A RESULT...ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS CONTINUES TO
BE THE FORWARD SPEED OF DORIAN. THE ECMWF IS ONE OF THE FASTER
MODELS SINCE IT WEAKENS DORIAN ALMOST IMMEDIATELY AND MOVES IT
QUICKLY IN THE BRISK EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW...WHEREAS THE UKMET
AND HWRF MODELS MAINTAIN A VERTICALLY DEEPER AND MORE ROBUST
TROPICAL CYCLONE... WHICH MOVES SLOWER IN THE DEEP-LAYER STEERING
FLOW. GIVEN THAT THE GFS-ENSEMBLE MEAN...HWRF...AND UKMET MODELS
HAVE HANDLED THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF DORIAN THE BEST THUS
FAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS CLOSER TO THOSE SOLUTIONS. THE
NEW ADVISORY TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND
IS IDENTICAL TO BUT REMAINS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS
TRACK MODEL TVCN.
AFTER SURVIVING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM PERIOD...DORIAN IS
NOW MOVING OVER 26C SSTS AND TOWARD EVEN WARMER WATERS...AND ALSO
INTO THE CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD. DORIAN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ANOTHER 72-96 HOURS...DURING WHICH TIME
AT LEAST SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES OVER SSTS ABOVE 27C. BY DAY 5...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
IS QUITE UNCERTAIN WITH DORIAN POSSIBLY MOVING INTO SOME MODERATE
TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS. GIVEN THIS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY SHOWS MODEST
STRENGTHENING AND MAINLY FOLLOWS THE LGEM...SHIPS...AND HWRF
Published on July 25, 2013 10:28 AM | Comments
Published on July 25, 2013 10:21 AM | Comments
Published on July 25, 2013 10:15 AM | Comments
Below are some links and web resources.
Tropical Weather Links/Images:
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
From the Global Hydrology & Climate Center (NASA - these images can be animated):
• Infrared Satellite
From the NOAA:
• Water Vapor
• Visible Satellite
• Visible Satellite
From The NHC:
• Infrared Satellite
• Water Vapor
• Comprehensive page of Atlantic and Caribbean Tropical Satellite Imagery here
• Satellite Imagery page (comprehensive satellite images - a great resource)
From The U.S. Navy:
• View the Latest Tropical Discussion
• View the Latest Tropical Outlook
• Go to the National Hurricane Center Tropical Prediction Center
• The U.S Navy's Tropical Cyclone page. Real-time and archived tropical cyclone satellite imagery and forecasts covering the entire globe.
• Hurricane Center Good map for tracking of the whole Atlantic including Africa, so you can see the tropical waves come all the way across the ocean.
• Active Tropical Cyclone page This page is a great resource for tracking charts and infrared images.
From The Weather Channel:
• Infrared image of the Atlantic Ocean
• Infrared image of the Caribbean Sea
• Tropical Update