Caribbean-On-Line's Caribbean Hurricane Blog

NHC Atlantic Wallet 1:




Current Tropical Cyclone Activity


Caribbean & Atlantic Tropical Storms & Hurricanes 2017

Name Start End Tropical Storm Hurricane
Tropical Storm Arlene 4/19/2017 4/21/2017
Tropical Storm Bret 6/18/2017 6/20/2017
Tropical Storm Cindy 6/19/2017 6/22/2017
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Hurricane Harvey 8/17/2017 9/1/2017
Hurricane Irma 8/30/2017 9/11/2017
Hurricane Jose 9/5/2017 9/22/2017
Hurricane Katia 9/5/2017 9/9/2017
Hurricane Lee 9/14/2017 9/30/2017
Hurricane Maria 9/16/2017 9/30/2017
Hurricane Nate 10/4/2017
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney

Caribbean & Atlantic Tropical Storms & Hurricanes 2016

Name Start End Tropical Storm Hurricane
Hurricane Alex 1/13/2015 1/15/2016
Tropical Storm Bonnie 5/27/206 6/4/2016
Tropical Storm Colin 6/5/2016 6/7/2016
Tropical Storm Danielle 6/19/2016 6/21/2016
Hurricane Earl 8/2/2016 8/6/2016
Tropical Storm Fiona 8/17/2016 8/23/2016
Hurricane Gaston 8/23/2016 9/3/2016
Hurricane Hermine 8/31/2016 9/6/2016
Tropical Storm Ian 9/12/2016 9/16/2016
Tropical Storm Julia 9/13/2016 9/19/2016
Tropical Storm Karl 9/14/2016 9/25/2016
Tropical Storm Lisa 9/19/2016 9/25/2016
Hurricane Matthew 9/28/2016 10/9/2016
Hurricane Nicole 10/4/2016
Otto (PDF) 11/20/2016 11/26/2016/td>
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tobias
Virginie
Walter

Caribbean & Atlantic Tropical Storms & Hurricanes 2015

Name Start End Tropical Storm Hurricane
Ana 5/8/2015 5/11/2015
Bill 6/16/2015 6/18/2015
Claudette 7/13/2015 7/14/2015
Danny 8/18/2015 8/24/2015
Erika 8/24/2015 8/28/2015
Fred 8/30/2015 9/6/2015
Grace 9/5/2015 9/9/2015
Henri 9/8/2015 9/11/2015
Ida 9/18/2015 9/27/2015
Joaquin 9/27/2015 10/7/2015
Kate 11/8/2015 11/11/2015

Recent Comments:

Recent Posts:

Maria hanging on

Published on September 24, 2017 9:50 PM | Comments

From Tropical Tidbits:



Hurricane Maria satellite image Tuesday night

Published on September 19, 2017 9:43 PM | Comments

20170919.2115.goes13.x.vis1km_high.15LMARIA.145kts-920mb-166N-636W.100pc.jpg



Tuesday Evening Update on Hurricanes Maria and Jose

Published on September 19, 2017 9:41 PM | Comments

Tropical Tidbits:



MARIA MAKES LANDFALL ON DOMINICA AS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE

Published on September 18, 2017 10:07 PM | Comments

Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 935 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

...MARIA MAKES LANDFALL ON DOMINICA AS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Radar data from Martinique and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft reports indicate that Maria made landfall on Dominica
around 915 PM AST (0115 UTC) with estimated winds of 160 MPH
(260 KM/H).

The next update will be the 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC) complete advisory
package.

SUMMARY OF 935 PM AST...0135 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 61.3W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM SE OF DOMINICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES



Monday Evening Update on Hurricanes Maria and Jose

Published on September 18, 2017 8:48 PM | Comments

Dominica taking a direct hit from a very powerful hurricane this evening. This video, just a couple of hours old, had the track a bit further north than the actual.



Maria set to cross Dominca this evening

Published on September 18, 2017 6:25 PM | Comments

Maria has strengthened and has a distinct eye. This is from around 6:20 p.m. ET:

maria-dominica.jpg

The latest from the NHC:

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

Maria is developing the dreaded pinhole eye. The last reports from
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and radar data from
Martinique indicated an eye with a diameter of about 8-10 n mi, and
this featured has recently become better defined in visible and
infrared satellite imagery. The aircraft data supported an
intensity of 105-110 kt back at 18Z, and all indications are that
rapid intensification is continuing. Thus, the initial intensity
is increased to 115 kt. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
schedule to arrive in Maria about 2330Z, and it is distinctly
possible that it will find a higher intensity than 115 kt.

After an excursion to the left overnight, Maria has resumed a
motion of 290-295 degrees at about 8 kt, and the short-term motion
may be even farther to the right. A weak subtropical ridge to the
north of the hurricane should steer it generally west-northwestward
for the next three days, with the center crossing the Leeward
Islands near Dominica during the next few hours. This is expected
to be followed by a track across the northeastern Caribbean to near
the Virgin Islands, then followed by a passage over or near Puerto
Rico around the 48 h point. Once north of Puerto Rico, the
hurricane should gradually turn toward the northwest and
north-northwest as it approaches a weakness in the ridge. The track
guidance is tightly clustered through 120 h, and the new forecast
track is an update of the previous forecast that lies a little to
the south of the various consensus models.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear favorable for additional
rapid strengthening for the next 24 h and possibly longer. The
intensity forecast, which is at or above the upper edge of the
guidance, now calls for Maria to reach a peak intensity of 135 kt
in about 24 h, and it is possible that the hurricane could reach
category 5 status. Later in the forecast period, land interaction
and less favorable upper-level winds are expected to cause some
weakening. On top of these general trends, there is also the
possibility that eyewall replacement cycles could occur that would
affect the intensity. However, Maria is likely to remain an
extremely dangerous major hurricane through the forecast period.

It should be noted that the despite the great intensity of Maria,
the hurricane force winds are currently confined to a small area
near the eye. The radii forecast assumes that the 64-kt radii will
not expand significantly during the next 36 h. However, if an
eyewall replacement cycle occurs, the hurricane-force winds could
expand to an area larger than forecast.

If radar data from the eastern Caribbean is regularly available,
Tropical Cyclone Updates may be issued this evening.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria will affect portions of the Leeward Islands and the British
and U.S. Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane
during the next couple of days, and hurricane warnings are in effect
for many of these islands.

2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous
major hurricane, and a hurricane warning has been issued for that
island.

3. The potential for a life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by
large and destructive waves, has increased for the Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 15.1N 60.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 15.7N 61.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 16.5N 63.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 17.3N 64.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 18.2N 66.2W 130 KT 150 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO
72H 21/1800Z 20.0N 69.0W 125 KT 145 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 22/1800Z 22.0N 71.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 25.0N 73.0W 105 KT 120 MPH




Maria a Hurricane

Published on September 17, 2017 8:27 PM | Comments

Maria officially became a hurricane and several islands are in her potential path as she continues to strengthen and approaches the Lesser Antilles. Preparations for this storm need to be rushed to completion, especially in Guadeloupe, Dominica, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat and Martinique:

Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 800 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017

...MARIA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER
ANTILLES...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 57.9W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ENE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of France has issued a Hurricane Warning for
Martinique.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* Martinique

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Lucia

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico should
monitor the progress of this system. Additional Tropical Storm or
Hurricane Watches and Warnings will likely be issued tonight or on
Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
by the French radar on Martinique near latitude 14.0 North,
longitude 57.9 West. Maria is moving toward the west-northwest near
15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed
is expected through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Maria will move across the Leeward Islands Monday night and then
over the extreme northeastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, and Maria could be near major hurricane intensity
when it moves across the Leeward Islands Monday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are first expected within portions of
the Leeward Islands by Monday night, with tropical storm conditions
beginning on Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area by Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the tropical storm watch area Monday or Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels near where the center of Maria moves
across the Leeward Islands.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the
Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands, through Wednesday night. Maria is also expected to
produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches for the northern
and central Windward Islands. In all the above areas, these
rainfall amounts could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Lesser Antilles.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.



Tropical Tidbits, September 17th, 2017

Published on September 17, 2017 8:15 PM | Comments

These reports are just excellent:



MARIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY

Published on September 17, 2017 11:02 AM | Comments

The 11 a.m. advisory has been posted by the NHC:

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017

...MARIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 56.2W
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Warning for
Dominica.

The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St. Lucia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Lucia

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* Guadeloupe
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, including the British
and U. S. Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane
Watches and Warnings will likely be issued today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 56.2 West. Maria is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will move
across the Leeward Islands Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Maria is expected to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are first expected within portions of
the Leeward Islands by Monday night, with tropical storm conditions
beginning on Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area by Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the tropical storm watch area Monday or Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels near where the center of Maria moves
across the Leeward Islands.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the
Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands through Wednesday night. Maria is also
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches for
the northern and central Windward Islands. In all the above areas,
these rainfall amounts could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Maria are beginning to affect the Lesser
Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.



Tropical Storm Maria, Advisory Number 2A

Published on September 16, 2017 10:10 PM | Comments

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 800 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

...MARIA MOVING WESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 53.0W
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of France has issued a Hurricane Watch for
Guadeloupe.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
* Dominica
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane
Watches will likely be issued tonight or early Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was
located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 53.0 West. Maria is
moving toward the west near 19 mph (30 km/h). A slower
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, Maria is expected to approach the
Leeward Islands on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Maria is
forecast to be a hurricane when it approaches the Leeward Islands
early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by Monday night or Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
tropical storm watch area on Monday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet
above normal tide levels within the hurricane watch area.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across
portions of the central and southern Leeward Islands through Tuesday
night. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 8 inches will be possible for portions of the northern
Leeward Islands through Tuesday night. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Maria are expected to begin affecting the
Lesser Antilles by Sunday night. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.



Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, September 16th, 2017

Published on September 16, 2017 10:03 PM | Comments

TD 15 has in fact become Maria.



Hurricane Irma Google Map

Published on September 16, 2017 11:19 AM | Comments

Here is a Hurricane Irma Google Map where you can zoom in and see the latest satellite images post Irma.



Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Discussion Number 1

Published on September 16, 2017 11:17 AM | Comments

Have to hope this forecast is just dead wrong:

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure located
several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles has become better
organized with curved banding features now better established.
Since there is still no indication of a well-defined center and
because tropical storm watches have been issued for portions of
the Leeward Islands, NHC has initiated advisories on this system as
a potential tropical cyclone. The initial wind speed is estimated
to be 30 kt based on a blend of the Dvorak classifications from TAFB
and SAB.

The initial motion estimate is 280/19, but this is uncertain due to
the lack of a clear center. A slower west-northwestward motion is
expected during the next several days as a mid-level ridge to the
north of the system weakens but remains nearly stationary. The NHC
track forecast takes the system across the Leeward Islands in a few
days and then near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by the end of
the forecast period. It should be noted that confidence in the
track and forward speed of this system is low due to the spread in
the models and the current lack of a well-defined center.

The disturbance is expected to be in environmental conditions
conducive for strengthening during the next several days as the
shear is expected to be 10 kt or less while the cyclone moves over
warm 29 deg C SSTs. These conditions should allow for at least
steady strengthening, and the models unanimously show that trend.
The NHC intensity forecast is conservative for now, but does show
the system becoming a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by
the time it reaches the Leeward Islands.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The disturbance is expected to intensify and will likely bring
tropical storm and hurricane conditions as well as flooding
rainfall to portions of the Lesser Antilles early next week. These
conditions could also spread into the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
by mid week. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress
of this system and follow any advice given by local officials.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 12.2N 50.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 17/0000Z 12.8N 52.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 17/1200Z 13.6N 55.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 14.3N 56.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 15.0N 58.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 16.3N 61.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 17.6N 64.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 18.7N 67.3W 80 KT 90 MPH



TD Fifteen, A Tropical Storm Watch in effect for St. Lucia, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Dominica

Published on September 16, 2017 11:02 AM | Comments

Hurricane Jose, Tropical Storm Lee, and Tropical Depression 15 are currently active in the Atlantic. Jose is no longer a threat the Caribbean at all, and Lee is forecast to remain a tropical storm and head northwest, but TD 15 could become a named storm this weekend and if so would be a threat to the Lesser Antilles. The NHC is currently forecasting a 90% chance of this - so people should be paying attention and be ready to make preparations quickly if need be.

This storm could - and again could - this is only a long range forecast, become a hurricane and impact several of the same islands that bore the brunt of Irma.

145528_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 50.5W
ABOUT 755 MI...1220 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
St. Lucia.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Martinique and Guadeloupe.

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane
Watches will likely be issued later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 12.2 North, longitude 50.5 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h). A slower west-northwest
motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the system is expected to approach the Leeward Islands on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours. The
disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and
could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Leeward
Islands.

Satellite images indicate that the disturbance has become better
organized, and it is expected to become a tropical cyclone later
today or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within portions of Leeward
Islands by Monday night or Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible on Monday.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches across portions of the central and southern Leeward Islands
through Tuesday night. These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to begin
affecting the Lesser Antilles by Sunday night. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.




Tropical Tidbits, September 15, 2017

Published on September 16, 2017 10:50 AM | Comments