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Emily

HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 32

Published on July 18, 2005 6:29 PM | Comments

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2005

...EMILY LOST IT PUNCH OVER YUCATAN...EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM BAFFIN BAY TEXAS SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF
TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO...AND DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS
FOR YUCATAN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.0 WEST OR ABOUT 445 MILES...
715 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 480 MILES...
770 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE NEARING THE
COAST OF NORTHEAST MEXICO LATE TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM. A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC STATION JUST NORTH
OF EMILY RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 71 MPH...115 KM/HR.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE
WAS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 INCHES OR LESS
ACROSS YUCATAN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...22.3 N... 91.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.



HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 29

Published on July 18, 2005 12:45 AM | Comments

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE EMILY APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN
PENINSULA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...THEN WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO
CAMPECHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST AND THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
MEXICO EARLY MONDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 230
MILES... 370 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH
...30 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A FEW HOURS AND THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO
EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE
LANDFALL. SOME WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS EMILY MOVES OVER NORTHERN
YUCATAN ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
IN MEXICO.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES.
LESSER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CUBA.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...19.9 N... 86.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.



HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A

Published on July 17, 2005 9:45 AM | Comments

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS EMILY PASSING SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...HEADED FOR THE YUCATAN...

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND
CAYMAN ISLAND...AND HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO
CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CAMPECHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...
155 KM... SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 305 MILES...490 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH
...32 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR
HURRICANES...BUT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
BEFORE EMILY MAKES LANDFALL. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE EMILY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB...27.70 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. COASTAL
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8-12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN MEXICO.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
WESTERN CUBA. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO
12 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...18.3 N... 82.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 938 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.



HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A

Published on July 16, 2005 9:35 AM | Comments

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE EMILY BEGINNING TO PASS SOUTH OF JAMAICA ...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...
230 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 395
MILES... 635 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM. FOR JAMAICA...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY
OCCUR IN GUSTS LATER TODAY ALONG THE COASTS...WITH POSSIBLE
SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 3000 FEET.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.

EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER
JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...15.9 N... 76.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 947 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM EDT.



HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 21

Published on July 16, 2005 12:47 AM | Comments

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST FRI JUL 15 2005

...MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY AGAIN STRENGTHENS TO CATEGORY 4...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD
TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST OR ABOUT 265
MILES... 425 KM... SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 545
MILES... 880 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH
...30 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE
PASSING NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA ON SATURDAY.

DATA FROM A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 135
MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS NOW A DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM. NOAA BUOY 42058 IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH...TROPICAL STORM FORCE.

THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER
JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...15.1 N... 74.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 954 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST.



Emily Now A Category 4 Hurricane

Published on July 15, 2005 7:20 AM | Comments

HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST FRI JUL 15 2005

...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE EMILY CHURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND JAMAICA...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL OF JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CARACAS WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CARACAS. PORTIONS OF
THIS WARNING AREA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS
WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE
ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...
AND ARUBA. PORTIONS OF THIS WARNING AREA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.2 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES...
620 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 580
MILES... 930 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

EMILY MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. EMILY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER JAMAICA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...13.9 N... 69.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 952 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.



Hurricane Emily Update

Published on July 14, 2005 1:32 PM | Comments

Emily is getting stronger now but made it through the southern Caribbean islands as a tropical storm and without inflicting major damage. She is now forecast to be south of Jamaica and just clip the Yucatan Peninsula. Here is the latest update from the National Hurricane Center:


HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST THU JUL 14 2005 ...EMILY STRENGTHENING IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER. THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA
MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF
CUMANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND
ARUBA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST OR ABOUT 560
MILES... 905 KM... SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 100
MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...NORTHERN
VENEZUELA...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL BE DECREASING TODAY.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...12.7 N... 64.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 976 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.



HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A

Published on July 14, 2005 8:46 AM | Comments

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST THU JUL 14 2005

...EMILY MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CONDITIONS IN
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IMPROVING...

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. VINCENT AND
THE GRENADINES IS DISCONTINUED...AND THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
GRENADA IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA
MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF
CUMANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTH
COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATER THIS MORNING.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES... 135
KM... WEST-NORTHWEST OF GRENADA.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...NORTHERN
VENEZUELA...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...12.4 N... 62.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.



Emily weakening -

Published on July 13, 2005 4:20 PM | Comments

TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM AST WED JUL 13 2005

CORRECTED TO ADD TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TRINIDAD.

...EMILY NOT STRENGTHENING...HURRICANE WARNINGS DOWNGRADED...

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS...AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR TRINIDAD HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 2 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR MARTINIQUE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...TOBAGO...
TRINIDAD...GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...ST. LUCIA...AND
THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO
CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO CARACAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS
NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 59.0 WEST OR ABOUT
130 MILES... 210 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 150
MILES...240 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF TRINIDAD.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR...AND A WEST
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IT NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT EMILY WILL REACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH BEFORE IT CLEARS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
...150 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
COASTAL AREA OF VENEZUELA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER.

REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...11.3 N... 59.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.



TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A

Published on July 13, 2005 8:06 AM | Comments

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST WED JUL 13 2005

...OUTER BANDS OF EMILY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TOBAGO...GRENADA...
THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
TRINIDAD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA...FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO
CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 57.2 WEST OR ABOUT 200
MILES... 320 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 280 MILES... 450
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF TRINIDAD.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND EMILY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE CENTER OF EMILY VERY
SHORTLY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
COASTAL AREA OF VENEZUELA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER.

REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...11.3 N... 57.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.



Emily's path pushed southward

Published on July 13, 2005 7:40 AM | Comments

This morning the NHC's forecast has Emily on a bit or a more southern tack, with an eventual landfall in the Yucatan penisula. This is good news for some people, not so good for others. Of course it can and probably will change.

emily7.13.05.am.gif



TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 9

Published on July 12, 2005 11:07 PM | Comments

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST TUE JUL 12 2005

...EMILY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND MOVING WESTWARD...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS CHANGED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR TOBAGO TO A
HURRICANE WARNING...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR TRINIDAD.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...
TOBAGO...GRENADA...ST. VINCENT...THE GRENADINES...AND ST. LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
TRINIDAD.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 54.7 WEST OR ABOUT
370 MILES... 590 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 450
MILES... 720 KM...EAST OF TRINIDAD.

EMILY IS MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE REACHING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND EMILY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1-3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...10.7 N... 54.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
AST.



TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 8

Published on July 12, 2005 5:45 PM | Comments

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST TUE JUL 12 2005

...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED AS EMILY CONTINUES WESTWARD...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS...BARBADOS...
GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT AND ST. LUCIA.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF TOBAGO.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR MARTINIQUE.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 52.8 WEST OR ABOUT 475
MILES... 765 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE REACHING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EMILY TOMORROW MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES
... 85 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1-3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...11.1 N... 52.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY
AT 11 PM AST.



TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 7

Published on July 12, 2005 1:09 PM | Comments

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE JUL 12 2005

...EMILY STRENGTHENING...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
BARBADOS...GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...AND ST.
LUCIA...BY THE APPROPRIATE GOVERNMENTS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF TOBAGO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 51.3 WEST OR ABOUT
575 MILES... 925 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND EMILY HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES
... 85 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...11.0 N... 51.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT
5 PM AST.



TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 6

Published on July 12, 2005 9:10 AM | Comments

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST TUE JUL 12 2005

...EMILY MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 48.6 WEST OR ABOUT 845
MILES...1360 KM... EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...11.4 N... 48.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.



TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 5

Published on July 12, 2005 12:01 AM | Comments

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST MON JUL 11 2005

...EMILY BECOMES THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 47.0 WEST OR ABOUT
1000 MILES...1610 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...11.3 N... 47.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM AST.



Tropical Storm Emily

Published on July 11, 2005 11:59 PM | Comments

It's official:

Tropical Storm Emily Develops in Atlantic

MIAMI (AP) -- A tropical depression developed into Tropical Storm Emily late Monday in the Atlantic Ocean, a record fifth named storm for this point in the still-young hurricane season.

Emily was 1,000 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles, the chain of small islands between the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic.

''It's the record for the first five named storms so early in the season,'' said Stacy Stewart, hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

The storm, with winds of about 45 mph, was moving west at 13 miles per hour. It is expected to strengthen and speed up Tuesday while gradually turning toward the west-northwest.

A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when its top sustained winds reach 74 mph.