Caribbean-On-Line's Caribbean Hurricane Blog



Stan

TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN ADVISORY NUMBER 17

Published on October 5, 2005 8:08 AM | Comments

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT WED OCT 05 2005

...STAN DISSIPATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...
...STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING...

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 97.3 WEST... OVER THE
STATE OF OAXACA MEXICO.

THE DISSIPATING DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR... AND THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STAN IS DISSIPATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. ISOLATED MAXIMUM
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH STAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...16.9 N... 97.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.



Stan Downgraded, Tammy Forms Off Florida

Published on October 5, 2005 8:04 AM | Comments

Tropical Storm Stan was responsible for over 50 deaths in Mexico, but has been downgraded. Also, Tropical Storm Tammy has formed off the Florida coast. While neither of these are direct Caribbean threats, we will still post updates for them for the next several days.



TROPICAL STORM STAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A

Published on October 3, 2005 3:44 PM | Comments

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT MON OCT 03 2005

...STAN MEANDERING AS IT STRENGTHENS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. ALTHOUGH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE CENTER...AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 92.3 WEST OR ABOUT 330
MILES... 535 KM... EAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO AND ABOUT 265 MILES... 430
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.

STAN HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...HOWEVER...A MOTION
TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 MPH... 90 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
STAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO THE CENTER OF
STAN.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...20.3 N... 92.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 55 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT.



TROPICAL STORM STAN ADVISORY NUMBER 5

Published on October 2, 2005 12:12 PM | Comments

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005

...STAN MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO
CAMPECHE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE
88.1 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 75 KM... SOUTHWEST OF TULUM MEXICO
AND ABOUT 145 MILES... 235 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO.

STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STAN WILL BE MOVING OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR MOST OF TODAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY...BUT REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES
...195 KM FROM THE CENTER...IN RAINBANDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...19.8 N... 88.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.



Tropical Storm Stan hits Yucatan

Published on October 2, 2005 12:10 PM | Comments

From the AP:

MIAMI, Florida (AP) -- Tropical Storm Stan made landfall in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula early Sunday with 45 mph sustained winds, but forecasters predicted it would weaken to a tropical depression as it moves over the region.

A tropical storm warning was in effect for the eastern coast of the Yucatan from Chetumal north to Cabo Catoche, forecasters said.

At 5 a.m. EDT, the center of the storm was about 40 miles south of Tulum, Mexico, and about 75 miles south-southwest of Cozumel, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said.

Stan, the 18th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, was moving to the west-northwest near 6 mph.

Rainfall accumulations from 5 to 10 inches over the Yucatan and northern Belize were expected, forecasters said.

Forecasters predicted the storm could restrengthen to a tropical storm after moving over the Yucatan region and re-entering the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico on Monday.

Meanwhile, tropical depression 19 remained no threat to land as it churned far out in the Atlantic.

At 5 a.m., the depression was about 715 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands and was moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 35 mph.

This is the fourth-busiest Atlantic hurricane season since record-keeping started in 1851. The record for tropical storms in one year is 21, set in 1933. The hurricane season ends November 30.