June 28, 2005
Tropical Storm Calvin
There is another Pacific storm, Calvin, off the coast of Mexico. This poses no threat to the Caribbean.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2005FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CALVIN...LOCATED ABOUT 135 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
June 18, 2005
NOAA DEPLOYS SEVEN NEW HURRICANE BUOYS
June 17, 2005 — The NOAA National Data Buoy Center launched six new weather data buoy stations designed to enhance hurricane monitoring and forecasting. The buoys have been deployed in key locations in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean. The center also deployed a seventh buoy off the coast of Pensacola, Fla., re-establishing a former station. Click here for the full story.
June 15, 2005
Hurricane Center keeping eye on area of thunderstorms southeast of Jamaica
THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A DISORGANIZED 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 19N81W...ONE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE EASTERN END OF HAITI NEAR 20N76W...AND ANOTHER TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 17N84W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N81W ABOUT 110 NM SOUTH OF CUBA. THE MID/UPPER LOW OVER W CUBA...AND THE RESULTANT WESTERLY SHEAR ARE KEEPING ALL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FROM CUBA TO HAITI AND JAMAICA AND ADJACENT WATERS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT YESTERDAY WERE WITHIN 250 NM SOUTH OF HAITI AND IN EASTERN JAMAICA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI BETWEEN 71W AND 74W. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN HAITI MAY ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW THE HEAVY RAINS WHICH MAY CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF JAMAICA BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE AT THE COAST OF EASTERN CUBA FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 75W AND 76W. THE UPPER LOW IS KEEPING MOST OF THE NW CARIBBEAN UNDER AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW BECAUSE OF THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS EAST OF THE SFC LOW FROM THE ABC ISLANDS NE ACROSS GUADELOUPE...WHICH IS FUNNELING MOST OF THE MOISTURE N OF THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE FAVORED AREA OF CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE W CARIBBEAN LATER IN THE WEEK AS A DEEP TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE ATLC.
June 11, 2005
Arlene
Arlene is just about out of the Gulf of Mexico now and clear of the Caribbean. The next named storm would be Bret. Right now tropical development is not likely in the next few days, even though there is a lot of unsettled weather in the Eastern Caribbean and a lot of rain. Frankly we need more on St. Thomas, it somehow keeps managing to miss us. We still need more reporters too if anyone is interested. Even if you just want to email us reports occaisionally and/or local pictures and not become a full blown "reporter", please just me know. Thanks -
June 10, 2005
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
Arlene is pretty much over as far as the Caribbean is concerned. If anyone has any pictures from the Cayman Islands, Jamaica or Cuba they would like posted here please send them to us.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005...ARLENE STRENGTHENS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...
AT 11 AM...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
TO ST MARKS FLORIDA...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. ALSO AT 11 AM
...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER TO PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
DURING THE NEXT 36 HR.
AT 11 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CUBA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
SATELLITE IMAGES...AIRCRAFT DATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF ARLENE HAS REFORMED A LITTLE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER
OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 440 MILES... 705 KM... SOUTHEAST OF
THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 470 MILES... 755
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.
ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE WILL ARRIVE MUCH EARLIER THAN THE CENTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ARLENE COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES
...240 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH RAINS WITH ISOLATED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS TO OVER 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH ARLENE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING.COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...24.0 N... 84.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.
June 9, 2005
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2005 ...POORLY ORGANIZED ARLENE AFFECTING WESTERN CUBA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO THE CITY OF HAVANA AND HAVANA PROVINCES...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES... 175 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE SHOULD CROSS NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS ARE ALREADY MOVING ONSHORE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ACCOMPANIED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA... AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY THE FLORIDA KEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CUBA. GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS WILL POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. SOME COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...20.4 N... 84.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005...WEATHER SHOULD WORSEN OVER WESTERN CUBA TODAY AS ARLENE
APPROACHES...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FROM
PINAR DEL RIO TO CITY OF HAVANA AND HAVANA PROVINCES...INCLUDING THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST
OR ABOUT 190 MILES... 305 KM...WEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 165
MILES... 270 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING THE CENTER NEAR
OR OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
AIR FORCE PLANE WILL CHECK ARLENE THIS AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS...IS SPREADING ACROSS THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA KEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ARLENE....MAINLY TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...19.4 N... 84.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.
Tropical Storm Arlene Forms in Caribbean
Thursday June 9, 2005 1:16 PM
MIAMI (AP) - Tropical Storm Arlene developed Thursday in the northwest Caribbean Sea, edging closer to western Cuba as the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm.
Arlene strengthened from a tropical depression that formed Wednesday. By Thursday morning, it had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.
At 8 a.m. EDT, the storm's center was about 190 miles south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba. It was moving north at about 8 mph, and this motion could bring the storm's center near western Cuba as early as Thursday night, forecasters said.
The Cuban government has issued a tropical storm watch for the western province of Pinar Del Rio to the capital of Havana.
The depression was causing heavy rains and squalls across the Cayman Islands and western and central Cuba. Forecasters warned that very heavy rains in Nicaragua and Honduras could cause flash floods and mud slides.
Tropical storms have top sustained winds of 39 mph to 74 mph.
June 8, 2005
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2005...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN...AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO
AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE
83.9 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES... 340 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND
CAYMAN AND ABOUT 290 MILES... 470 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE
WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH
... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY IN RAIN BANDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS...SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.MOISTURE FLOWING FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE DEPRESSION IS PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...PARTICULARLY
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...17.6 N... 83.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.
First tropical depression forms
From CNN:
Wednesday, June 8, 2005 Posted: 8:45 PM EDT (0045 GMT)
MIAMI, Florida (AP) -- The first tropical depression of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season formed Wednesday in the northwest Caribbean, prompting Cuba to issue a tropical storm watch.
Read the rest here.
NOAA UNVEILS ‘STORM TRACKER’ TO FOLLOW TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES
Here is something new from NOAA:
We may have a system brewing...
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING
BETWEEN HONDURAS AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. EVEN IF THE
SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
AFFECTING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
June 6, 2005
Latest Tropical Outlook
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THIS WEATHER
REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.
June 3, 2005
All quiet
The latest tropical outlook confirms that not much is happening yet:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA...FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.
A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDINESS AND
A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
FORECASTER AVILA
June 2, 2005
Weary Floridians brace for another season of storms
From the Gainesvill Sun:
Last year's lackadaisical attitude early on was somewhat backed up by decades of little inland impact from a hurricane. In Alachua County, for example, it had been 40 years since a hurricane did more than blow loose a shingle here and there.
Today, the 2005 hurricane season begins, and there's a decided difference in the way inland Floridians are approaching this six-month period of anxiety that ends Nov. 30.
2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Here are our archives of the storms we covered in 2005 (we closely cover Caribbean storms - storms that start in the Gulf of Mexico or the North Atlantic and do not directly threaten Caribbean islands will not have as many mentions here):
Arlene
Emily
Dennis
Franklin
Harvey
Irene
Katrina
Nate
Philippe
Rita
Stan
Tammy
Wilma
And here is the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season archive page from the NHC. Files are available in PDF and MS Word format. A good resource for information seekers and researchers.
June 1, 2005
First Day of Hurricane Season
Today, June 1, marks the first day of hurricane season in the Atlantic. The season runs until the end of November. Here is an article from the St. Thomas Source this morning with more information. We will be keeping you posted here as the season progresses.
Latest Tropical Discussion
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15
KT. THE WAVE IS LOCATED WITHIN AN AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND DIFFLUENCE. AS SUCH...CONVECTION IS RATHER ACTIVE
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-10N
BETWEEN 32W-36W.
W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ALONG
82W/83W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION WITH LITTLE SATELLITE PRESENTATION. ANY ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION IS MASKED BY THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND S FLOW AT
THE UPPER LEVELS.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 9N21W 10N35W 6N49W 7N60W. IN
ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
36W-41W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM S OF
THE AXIS FROM 14W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 41W-47W. CLUSTERS
OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM
51W-60W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA
COURTESY OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING S FROM AN UPPER
LOW THAT HAS MOVED N INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA ACROSS THE N GULF
COAST TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 89W. THE ATTENDANT
STATIONARY FRONT IS MEANDERING ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES ALONG
31N/32N FROM THE W ATLC TO A 1004 MB LOW ALONG THE SE COAST OF
LOUISIANA AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SSW ALONG 25N88W TO A
1006 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 19N93W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FORM 1004 MB LOW W
INTO TO TEXAS. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO IGNITE A STRONG
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WHICH IS BEING PROPAGATED E/NE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS FORMING OVER THE NE GULF WITHIN THE
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT REGION SE OF THE SURFACE LOW. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES AN OVERALL MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NE AND THIS
AREA OF ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING MOST OF FLORIDA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD INTO THE W ATLC AND THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS MORNING.
EXPECT PERIODS OF SQUALLS ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL N OF CUBA FROM 76W TO THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS BEING RE-ENFORCED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING SE FROM OVER TEXAS WITH A SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE GULF TIL FRI WHEN THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS THE AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID-WEST MOVES TOWARD THE NE UNITED
STATES. THUS...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
AT ANY TIME OVER THE E GULF FOR TODAY. ACTIVITY COULD BE MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND EXTREME S
FLORIDA WITH DEEP LAYERED S FLOW AND AN ALREADY MOIST ATMOSPHERE
KEEPING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ABOVE AVERAGE...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. W OF THE UPPER TROUGH...
MID/UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRYING WILL PRODUCE
TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE
VICINITY OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING TEXAS.
CARIBBEAN...
A WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA NNW OVER CENTRAL CUBA. FURTHER
E...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS S INTO E CARIBBEAN FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO JUST N
OF VENEZUELA. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CONFLUENCE
RESULTING IN SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL TO E CARIBBEAN. DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE S
OF 15N FROM 75W-82W. AN ACTIVE ITCZ COUPLED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 18NW OF 76W. W OF
82W...DEEP-LAYERED S FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
ENHANCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N
ACROSS W CUBA. ELSEWHERE...HAZY SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH AFRICAN
DUST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN... ESPECIALLY
E OF 75W. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE W CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE/WET AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS OVER THE AREA AND THE UPPER FLOW REGIME
BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT.
ATLANTIC...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS FLORIDA EARLIER THIS
MORNING IS AGAIN MOVING INTO THE W ATLC WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N W OF 78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS N OF
23N. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL BE GENERATED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
EXTREME S FLORIDA AS DEEP LAYERED S FLOW AND AN ALREADY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE ARE IN PLACE KEEPING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ABOVE AVERAGE... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN MAINLY POLEWARD
OF A STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERING ALONG 31N/32N E OF BERMUDA.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE W ATLC...AMPLE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ASSIST THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
PROPAGATE OVER THE BAHAMAS FURTHER INTO THE W ATLC. LOOKING
UPSTREAM....THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE NE
UNITED STATES COAST IS FORECAST TO SKIRT THE N PORTION OF THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL ATLC...RE-ENFORCING THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH PATTERN
CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL PUSH THE NOW STATIONARY FRONT SE STARTING LATER TODAY
ENTERING THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AS EARLY AS THU WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS
THROUGH 30N48W SW INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH ASSOCIATED
DIFFLUENCE GENERATING A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM OF 22N58W. IN THE E ATLC...
MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SPAIN SW TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR
29N25W AND A SECOND LOW NEAR 23N37W TO WEAK THIRD LOW NEAR
20N41W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTING
NE WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN ITS WAKE FROM AFRICA
WESTWARD ALONG 10N. UPPER DIFFLUENCE NEAR THE W PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE IS ASSISTING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ITCZ. THE
ITCZ...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WAVE ALONG 34W SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD. AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD W ACROSS THE ATLC WITH A WELL-DEFINED
AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES SW ALONG 32N35W TO A
1025 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N52W THEN W TO THE
BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN
LATER IN THE WEEK AS AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC. FINALLY...AN EXPANSIVE PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST
SPANS THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...GENERALLY S
OF 25N TO THE ITCZ.
