THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DISORGANIZED 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 
19N81W...ONE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE EASTERN END
OF HAITI NEAR 20N76W...AND ANOTHER TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW 
CENTER TO 17N84W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 21N81W ABOUT 110 NM SOUTH OF CUBA. THE MID/UPPER 
LOW OVER W CUBA...AND THE RESULTANT WESTERLY SHEAR ARE KEEPING 
ALL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FROM CUBA TO HAITI AND JAMAICA
AND ADJACENT WATERS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
WERE PRESENT YESTERDAY WERE WITHIN 250 NM SOUTH OF HAITI AND
IN EASTERN JAMAICA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
CONTINUE TODAY WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN 
PENINSULA OF HAITI BETWEEN 71W AND 74W. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE 
THAT FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN HAITI MAY ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW 
THE HEAVY RAINS WHICH MAY CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND 
TONIGHT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN ABOUT
180 NM SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF JAMAICA BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. 
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE AT THE COAST OF 
EASTERN CUBA FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 75W AND 76W. THE UPPER LOW 
IS KEEPING MOST OF THE NW CARIBBEAN UNDER AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING ENHANCED
SOMEWHAT BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW BECAUSE OF THE LOCATION 
OF THE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS EAST OF
THE SFC LOW FROM THE ABC ISLANDS NE ACROSS GUADELOUPE...WHICH IS 
FUNNELING MOST OF THE MOISTURE N OF THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE 
FAVORED AREA OF CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE W CARIBBEAN LATER 
IN THE WEEK AS A DEEP TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND 
DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE ATLC.