June 2005 | Main | August 2005
July 31, 2005
Forecasters watch march of tropical waves
From FloridaToday.com :
Currently, the systems have not shown indications of rapid development. However, a hurricane hunter aircraft may be dispatched to one as the waves march westward.
Here, according to a statement from hurricane forecasters, are the waves:
A tropical wave is producing widespread cloudiness and scattered showers from Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the northern Lesser Antilles northward over the Atlantic for a few hundred miles.
Upper-level winds are only marginally favorable and development, if any, should be slow to occur over the next couple of days.
Another tropical wave is moving westward at 20 mph through the central and southern Lesser Antilles. This system remains poorly organized.
Upper-level winds are only marginally favorable for some
slow development to occur. However, an Air Force Reserve unit
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon, if necessary.
July 30, 2005
Tropical system fails to pick up steam
From FloridaToday.com:
The system, located between Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, is drifting westward.
"Upper-level winds are not favorable for significant development," forecasters said in a statement today.
"Although the potential for the formation of a tropical depression has disminished, squalls producing brief periods of heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds ... are possible over the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola today," forecasters said.
A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.
July 29, 2005
Tropical Waves
There are a couple of tropical waves out there right now - the one that is passing by the Virgin Islands today does seem to have the potential to turn into something that may effect the Eastern Caribbean early next week (Jamaica). It will be interesting to see the NHCs take on this and when (if ever) they call it a tropical depression or not. We may get a break for awhile from the Atlantic waves after this one, though tropical weather may pop up in the Gulf of Mexico and the Eastern U.S. coast.
(PS - I am not a weatherman - just someone who is interested in the weather - the above is my opinion only from the reading and watching of the reports of the current conditions).
Image courtesy of http://www.wsi.com
July 28, 2005
Noted forecaster says warm Atlantic could be a hurricane alley
An article about my favorite hurricane forecaster, Joe Bastardi of AccuWeather, from the Herald Tribune (Florida):
AccuWeather's Joe Bastardi is calling for 18 named storms this season, with the United States being hit another six times in the months to come.
He says much of his call for more East Coast action has to do with water temperatures in the Atlantic.
Bastardi leads a parade of long-range hurricane forecast revisions due out at this time each year.
July 27, 2005
Franklin a non event for the Caribbean
Tropical Storm Franklin is still meandering about out in the Atlantic. It is a little stronger today and expected to drift to the Northeast. We have not been covering it too closely since it was never much of a threat to the Caribbean once it pulled away from the Bahamas (technically the Bahamas are not even considered "Caribbean" islands). Below is the latest warning from the NHC:
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST WED JUL 27 2005
...FRANKLIN MOVING NORTHWARD AND RE-STRENGTHENING...
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST OR ABOUT
285 MILES... 455 KM... WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED...EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM...MAINLY SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...33.9 N... 69.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.
July 23, 2005
Tropical Storm Franklin Update
Franklin is no threat to the Caribbean at this time, and is pulling away from the Bahamas also. It may still have an impact on Bermuda.
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005
...FRANKLIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS...
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST OR ABOUT
200 MILES... 325 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND AND
ABOUT 695 MILES...1120 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FRANKLIN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AND
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...29.1 N... 75.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.
July 22, 2005
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005
...CENTER OF FRANKLIN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS GREAT ABACO ISLAND
IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NEW PROVIDENCE AND THE
BERRY ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS FOR ELEUTHERA... THE ABACOS... AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST OR OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 95
MILES... 150 KM...EAST OF FREEPORT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.
FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE
CENTER OF FRANKLIN NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FRANKLIN REMAINS A SMALL STORM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
FRANKLIN MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...26.7 N... 77.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.
July 21, 2005
Tropical Storm Franklin
He was a long time coming, but here he is:
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 2... CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005
...CORRECTED TO ADD INITIAL POSITION...
...SIXTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
FORMS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
FOR ELEUTHERA... NEW PROVIDENCE... THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE
ABACOS... AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 PM EDT... 0000Z... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND OF ELEUTHERA IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED...IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES
... 45 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
FRANKLIN COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...25.8 N... 76.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.
July 18, 2005
Hurricane lashes Mexico's popular Riviera Maya resorts
By Mark Stevenson
The Associated Press
PLAYA DEL CARMEN, Mexico � Hurricane Emily ripped roofs off luxury hotels along Mexico's Mayan Riviera, stranded thousands of tourists and left hundreds of local residents homeless today, forcing many to remain in crowded, leaky shelters.
Read the rest here
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2005
...EMILY LOST IT PUNCH OVER YUCATAN...EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN...
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM BAFFIN BAY TEXAS SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF
TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO...AND DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS
FOR YUCATAN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.0 WEST OR ABOUT 445 MILES...
715 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 480 MILES...
770 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE NEARING THE
COAST OF NORTHEAST MEXICO LATE TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM. A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC STATION JUST NORTH
OF EMILY RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 71 MPH...115 KM/HR.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE
WAS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 INCHES OR LESS
ACROSS YUCATAN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE.
REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...22.3 N... 91.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE EMILY APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN
PENINSULA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...THEN WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO
CAMPECHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST AND THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
MEXICO EARLY MONDAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 230
MILES... 370 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH
...30 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A FEW HOURS AND THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO
EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE
LANDFALL. SOME WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS EMILY MOVES OVER NORTHERN
YUCATAN ON MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
IN MEXICO.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES.
LESSER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CUBA.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...19.9 N... 86.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.
July 17, 2005
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS EMILY PASSING SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...HEADED FOR THE YUCATAN...
AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND
CAYMAN ISLAND...AND HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO
CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CAMPECHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA.
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF EMILY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...
155 KM... SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 305 MILES...490 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH
...32 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR
HURRICANES...BUT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
BEFORE EMILY MAKES LANDFALL. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE EMILY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB...27.70 INCHES.
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. COASTAL
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8-12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN MEXICO.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
WESTERN CUBA. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO
12 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...18.3 N... 82.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 938 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.
July 16, 2005
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE EMILY BEGINNING TO PASS SOUTH OF JAMAICA ...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...
230 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 395
MILES... 635 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM. FOR JAMAICA...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY
OCCUR IN GUSTS LATER TODAY ALONG THE COASTS...WITH POSSIBLE
SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 3000 FEET.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.
EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER
JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...15.9 N... 76.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 947 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM EDT.
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST FRI JUL 15 2005
...MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY AGAIN STRENGTHENS TO CATEGORY 4...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD
TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST OR ABOUT 265
MILES... 425 KM... SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 545
MILES... 880 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH
...30 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE
PASSING NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA ON SATURDAY.
DATA FROM A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 135
MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS NOW A DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM. NOAA BUOY 42058 IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH...TROPICAL STORM FORCE.
THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.
EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER
JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...15.1 N... 74.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 954 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST.
July 15, 2005
Emily Now A Category 4 Hurricane
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST FRI JUL 15 2005
...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE EMILY CHURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND JAMAICA...
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL OF JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CARACAS WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CARACAS. PORTIONS OF
THIS WARNING AREA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS
WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE
ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...
AND ARUBA. PORTIONS OF THIS WARNING AREA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.2 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES...
620 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 580
MILES... 930 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.
EMILY MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. EMILY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER JAMAICA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...13.9 N... 69.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 952 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.
July 14, 2005
Hurricane Emily Update
Emily is getting stronger now but made it through the southern Caribbean islands as a tropical storm and without inflicting major damage. She is now forecast to be south of Jamaica and just clip the Yucatan Peninsula. Here is the latest update from the National Hurricane Center:
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST THU JUL 14 2005 ...EMILY STRENGTHENING IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER. THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA
MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF
CUMANA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND
ARUBA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST OR ABOUT 560
MILES... 905 KM... SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 100
MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.
EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...NORTHERN
VENEZUELA...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL BE DECREASING TODAY.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...12.7 N... 64.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 976 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST THU JUL 14 2005
...EMILY MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CONDITIONS IN
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IMPROVING...
AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. VINCENT AND
THE GRENADINES IS DISCONTINUED...AND THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
GRENADA IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA
MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF
CUMANA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTH
COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATER THIS MORNING.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES... 135
KM... WEST-NORTHWEST OF GRENADA.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...NORTHERN
VENEZUELA...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...12.4 N... 62.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.
July 13, 2005
Emily weakening -
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM AST WED JUL 13 2005
CORRECTED TO ADD TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TRINIDAD.
...EMILY NOT STRENGTHENING...HURRICANE WARNINGS DOWNGRADED...
AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS...AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR TRINIDAD HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
AT 2 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR MARTINIQUE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...TOBAGO...
TRINIDAD...GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...ST. LUCIA...AND
THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO
CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO CARACAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS
NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 59.0 WEST OR ABOUT
130 MILES... 210 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 150
MILES...240 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF TRINIDAD.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR...AND A WEST
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IT NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT EMILY WILL REACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH BEFORE IT CLEARS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
...150 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
COASTAL AREA OF VENEZUELA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER.
REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...11.3 N... 59.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST WED JUL 13 2005
...OUTER BANDS OF EMILY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TOBAGO...GRENADA...
THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
TRINIDAD.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA...FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO
CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE.
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 57.2 WEST OR ABOUT 200
MILES... 320 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 280 MILES... 450
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF TRINIDAD.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND EMILY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE CENTER OF EMILY VERY
SHORTLY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
COASTAL AREA OF VENEZUELA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER.
REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...11.3 N... 57.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.
Emily's path pushed southward
This morning the NHC's forecast has Emily on a bit or a more southern tack, with an eventual landfall in the Yucatan penisula. This is good news for some people, not so good for others. Of course it can and probably will change.
July 12, 2005
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST TUE JUL 12 2005
...EMILY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND MOVING WESTWARD...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS CHANGED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR TOBAGO TO A
HURRICANE WARNING...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR TRINIDAD.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...
TOBAGO...GRENADA...ST. VINCENT...THE GRENADINES...AND ST. LUCIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
TRINIDAD.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE.
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 54.7 WEST OR ABOUT
370 MILES... 590 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 450
MILES... 720 KM...EAST OF TRINIDAD.
EMILY IS MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE REACHING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND EMILY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1-3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...10.7 N... 54.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
AST.
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST TUE JUL 12 2005
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED AS EMILY CONTINUES WESTWARD...
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS...BARBADOS...
GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT AND ST. LUCIA.
AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF TOBAGO.
AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR MARTINIQUE.
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 52.8 WEST OR ABOUT 475
MILES... 765 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE REACHING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EMILY TOMORROW MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES
... 85 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1-3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...11.1 N... 52.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY
AT 11 PM AST.
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE JUL 12 2005
...EMILY STRENGTHENING...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
BARBADOS...GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...AND ST.
LUCIA...BY THE APPROPRIATE GOVERNMENTS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF TOBAGO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 51.3 WEST OR ABOUT
575 MILES... 925 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND EMILY HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES
... 85 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...11.0 N... 51.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT
5 PM AST.
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST TUE JUL 12 2005
...EMILY MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
EMILY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 48.6 WEST OR ABOUT 845
MILES...1360 KM... EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...11.4 N... 48.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.
OCHA Situation Report No. 5 Hurricane Dennis - Cuba
1. Between 7-9 July, Hurricane Dennis, classified as a category IV event, has devastated some 600 km of territory in Cuba, triggering a serious sea surge, flooding, landslides and heavy rains. The maximum sustained winds reached above 200 km/PH with extreme gusts.
2. According to the UN Resident Coordinator’s office in Havana, Hurricane Dennis has caused extensive damage in 11 provinces, affecting some 8 million persons, out of the total population of 11.1 million, rendering this one of the most devastating natural phenomena affecting the country in the last decades.
3. The most affected areas are: Guamà, II and III Frente in Santiago de Cuba province, Pilon, Niquero, Media Luna, Campechuela and Manzanillo in Granma province, Santacruz del Sur, and Vertientes in Camaguey province, Trinidad, Tunas de Zaza y Mèdano in Sancti Spiritus province, Manicaragua in Vila Clara province and all municipalities in Cienfuegos province, Cienaga de Zapata and Jaguey Grande in Matanzas province.
4. According to official figures received from the National Civil Defense, 10 persons have been killed, while 1,535,545 have been evacuated, of which 129,626 were students and 16,873 tourists. Major damages are reported in the housing, agriculture electricity, water supply, telecommunication and transportation sectors.
5. A preliminary assessment of the National Civil Defense indicates that 46,318 houses were damaged. 14,617 houses suffered total destruction, of which 6,327 collapsed and 8,290 with destroyed roofs. Consequently 73,000 persons are left homeless and 158,500 persons are without adequate shelter as the roofs of their homes were completely destroyed.
DAMAGE SUFFERED BY KEY SECTORS
6. Housing
Cienfuegos Province
Total houses affected 11, 163
Total collapse 1, 092
Partial collapse 2, 146
La Habana Province
Total house affected 4, 165
Total collapse 73
Partial collapse 269
Ciudad de la Habana Province
Total house affected 334
Total collapse 0
Partial collapse 7
Matanzas Province
Total house affected 3, 284
Total collapse 193
Partial collapse 325
Sancti Spiritus Province
Total house affected 1, 777
Total collapse 278
Partial collapse 1, 499
Ciego de Avila Province
Total house affected 1, 069
Total collapse 17
Partial collapse 30
Camaguey Province
Total house affected 5, 436
Total collapse 172
Partial collapse 512
Santiago de Cuba Province
Total house affected 4, 090
Total collapse 502
Partial collapse 1, 000
7. Agriculture
In the provinces of Villa Clara and Cienfugos, the mango, papaya, orange and banana as well as the irrigation systems, suffered considerable damage. In Granma Province several thousands hectares of grains, cabbages and corn were destroyed.
8. Water supply
In Granma Province 70% of the water supply is contaminated. The provincial authorities have organized an emergency distribution of water.
9. Transportation
The principal road connecting the Provinces of Santiago de Cuba and Granma has been blocked due to a collapsed bridge.
10. Communications
The telephone lines in 28 locations in the provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus and Matanzas are interrupted.
NATIONAL RESPONSE
11. The national authorities mobilized 140,000 persons and 4,348 transportation means and public works machinery to face the hurricane’s consequences and to assist in evacuation of more than 1.5 million persons.
12. The Government activated 978 food distribution centers and 1,804 emergency shelters, of which 805 in the schools. All houses are currently evaluated in terms of safety for returnees. Priority attention is also required for sanitation requirements. 42 out of 53 major food shops were evacuated and 478,053 animals have been relocated to safe areas.
UN SYSTEM RESPONSE
13. The UN Resident Coordinator’s Office and the National Civil Defense Office have established a coordination and information mechanism to facilitate coordination of disaster response activities and information flow.
14. The same office convened several coordination and information meetings with all UN agencies, NGOs, cooperation agencies and foreign embassies.
15. Following the request of the UN Resident Coordinator UN-OCHA has released USD 50,000 for emergency response coordination and purchase of relief items.
16. OCHA remains in close contact with the UN Resident Coordinator’s Offices in Cuba and will continue reporting as further information is made available.
17. For tracking and further information, please refer to the Website of the National Hurricane Service in Miami at www.nhc.noaa.gov, and www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/Gif/atl.latest.gif.
18. This situation report, together with further information on ongoing emergencies, is also available on the OCHA Internet Website at http://www.reliefweb.int
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST MON JUL 11 2005
...EMILY BECOMES THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 47.0 WEST OR ABOUT
1000 MILES...1610 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...11.3 N... 47.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM AST.
July 11, 2005
Tropical Storm Emily
It's official:
MIAMI (AP) -- A tropical depression developed into Tropical Storm Emily late Monday in the Atlantic Ocean, a record fifth named storm for this point in the still-young hurricane season.
Emily was 1,000 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles, the chain of small islands between the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic.
''It's the record for the first five named storms so early in the season,'' said Stacy Stewart, hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
The storm, with winds of about 45 mph, was moving west at 13 miles per hour. It is expected to strengthen and speed up Tuesday while gradually turning toward the west-northwest.
A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when its top sustained winds reach 74 mph.
The potential Emily & Franklin are on the move...
My favorite hurricane person/weather man Joe Bastardi says that T.D. 5 and what will become T.D. 6 (just rolling off Africa) look like the potential hurricanes Emily and Franklin. It is pretty far out time wise but the European model is showing these two storms making their way through the region as hurricanes. We will keep you posted and look forward to any updates you can send our way as the week progresses.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON JUL 11 2005
...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION CONTINUES WESTWARD...
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST OR ABOUT
1030 MILES...1655 KM... EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH
...22 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY NOT WELL ORGANIZED...BUT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...10.6 N... 46.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON JUL 11 2005
...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WESTWARD IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 44.7 WEST OR ABOUT
1120 MILES...1800 KM... EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
ON TUESDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...10.3 N... 44.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.
July 8, 2005
Satellite photo of Hurricane Dennis
Hurricane Dennis about to make landfall on Cuba. Image from the NOAA
HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005
...DENNIS WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES HAVANA
AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...
CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A
HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA MAY
BE CANCELLED SATURDAY MORNING.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND
FLORIDA BAY.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE
PEARL RIVER. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM ANCLOTE KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD.
AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONCHARTRAIN.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM NORTH OF ANCLOTE KEY NORTHWARD TO EAST OF THE
STEINHATCHEE RIVER.
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...AND FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DENNIS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT 20
MILES... 30 KM...EAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 110 MILES... 180
KM...SOUTH OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF DENNIS NEAR HAVANA AND INTO
THE STRIATS OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN NEAR THE
DRY TORTUGAS ON SATURDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY
INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE UPON REACHING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES...100 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM. KEY WEST FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 44 MPH WITH A GUST TO 54 MPH. TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WIND
GUSTS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN SQUALLS AS FAR NORTH AS THE MIAMI AREA.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.
DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER CUBA AND CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA.
HIGHER VALUES OF STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BAYS AND INLETS. A
STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. A
STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 7 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...23.0 N... 82.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 962 MB.
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM EDT AND 3 AM EDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.
HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005
...DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE DENNIS CONTINUES TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS... VILLA CLARA...
CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A
HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO
OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY.
AT 800AM EDT...1200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF
GOLDEN BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO LONGBOAT KEY.
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FLORIDA...AND THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES...
370 KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 285 MILES...460 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR.
DENNIS HAS MADE A SLIGHT WOBBLE AND HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...A GENERAL MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST...
ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED TO RESUME
LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE EYE OF DENNIS WILL REACH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA
LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE LANDFALL IN CUBA.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.
DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER CUBA...WITH LOCAL 15 INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE SIERRA
MAESTRA MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
IS EXPECTED OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA...JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CUBA EAST OF
CABO CRUZ. A MUCH LARGER STORM SURGE OF NEAR 20 FEET IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA WEST OF CABO CRUZ. A STORM SURGE
OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.
REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...20.9 N... 79.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM EDT.
July 7, 2005
More from Jamaica
I was alarmed to learn that Dennis had grown overnight to Category 2, considering this had been a tropical storm up to yesterday. I had felt prepared for Category 1, but above that would give me some concern and mostly for persons who had not yet fully recovered from Ivan last year. But my reading of the maps indicated to me that Dennis would pass north as indeed it did.
We have had flooding in low-lying or coastal areas, and people have needed to take refuge in shelters. Some bridges have been inundated or have been washed away. My electricity blinked off and on numerous times during the day, and I realized the winds were to blame. But Dennis has moved on and some of us have been given another chance so we can be better prepared for the rest of the season. Someone said that she was not taking Dennis too seriously as hurricanes at this point in the season are "amateur" and don't come to maturity till about September. Dennis seems intent on proving her wrong by already moving to a high category 3.
Thanks again to Yvonne for an insightful report. Jamaica seems safe for now as Dennis heads for Cuba and the U.S.
HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2005
...HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WESTWARD. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...
CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE
WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING PROVINCES OF CUBA
INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE
LA HABANA...AND HOLGUIN.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 11 AM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY. ALSO AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN
BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST AND SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH ON THE
WEST COAST.
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD...ALL OF
JAMAICA...AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST OR ABOUT 80
MILES... 125 KM... EAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 155 MILES...
250 KM...SOUTH OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR JAMAICA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES.
DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA...AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF JAMAICA. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. A MUCH LARGER STORM SURGE
OF 12 TO 14 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA FROM
CAMAGUEY WESTWARD.
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...18.0 N... 75.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 968 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY
July 6, 2005
Report from Jamaica
We received this about 11:30 PM EST from Yvonne in Jamaica:
Batteries seemed the most popular item, and after that water containers, tarpaulin, lanterns, and candles. I had come to purchase the plastic sheeting that I had picked up weeks ago when the shop was quiet. I had put it back thinking I had time to shop around, and then planned to return because no other shop seemed to stock this item. I needed it to line my bath so the water could not leak past the bath stopper.
I had picked up the rest of my hurricane supplies some weeks ago, and this morning I decided to add to my stock a roll of duct tape, some binding wire (I could need that to hold my windows firm in the event of heavy winds) and a length of rope that could come in useful though I still am not sure for what.
After I returned home, the rain stopped, and the skies cleared and the sun came out. For a while in the afternoon I thought the place felt the kind of stillness that I associate with an impending hurricane. Then I heard the birds singing in my garden and felt reassured. Evidently they still felt safe.
Dennis is now at hurricane strength. At this moment (10:32 PM) all is quiet. Not even a drizzle or the stirring of any wind.Just some very distant thunder. But I expect I will wake up to some very different conditions tomorrow morning.
The light and power company says we should keep our electricity if the hurricane does not go much beyond category 1, so I expect to be staying on-line and staying in touch.
Thanks Yvonne - stay safe!
HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 10
HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005
...DENNIS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD...ALL OF
JAMAICA...ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA
FOR THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE
AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST OR ABOUT 245
MILES... 400 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 280
MILES... 455 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR JUST
EAST OF JAMAICA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES DENNIS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A STRONG CATEGORY 2
HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES JAMAICA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF JAMAICA. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...16.5 N... 73.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.
Tropical Storm Dennis Advisory 6A
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2005
...ADDED MISSING TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...
...DENNIS CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND FOR
EASTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO
DE CUBA...GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN.
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.8 WEST OR ABOUT
255 MILES... 410 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
AND ABOUT 440 MILES... 710 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS
TRACK...DENNIS WILL BE NEAR JAMAICA EARLY THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 65 MPH... 100 KM/HR... WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...15.2 N... 70.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.
July 5, 2005
Tropical Storm Dennis
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005
...CARIBBEAN DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM DENNIS...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD AND THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI
FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER AND PORT-AU-PRINCE WESTWARD.
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM. JULY 5 IS THE EARLIEST DATE ON
RECORD FOR 4 NAMED STORMS TO HAVE FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST OR ABOUT
355 MILES... 570 KM... SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...13.3 N... 66.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.
Recent Tropical Weather
Tropical Storm Cindy is in the Gulf of Mexico and no threat to the Caribbean. The storm to watch this week will be what is now Tropical Depression Four and could become a Hurricane (probably Dennis) sometime during the week as it nears Cuba.
