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November 30, 2005
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST WED NOV 30 2005
...EPSILON CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 54.2 WEST OR ABOUT
650 MILES...1045 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1650
MILES...2660 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.
EPSILON IS MAKING A SMALL LOOP TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 7 MPH...
11 KM/HR. SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT... BUT A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON THURSDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK... EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE
EAST OF BERMUDA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY... AND EPSILON COULD BRIEFLY BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINS BY LATE THURSDAY OR ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220 MILES
...350 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
ALTHOUGH EPSILON IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY AFFECT BERMUDA...
LARGE OCEAN SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
OF EPSILON WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY
SURF AND ROUGH WAVE CONDITIONS AROUND THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...29.8 N... 54.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.
It's over!
Wow - that was a terrible hurricane season. There is going to be a lot written and studied about the 2005 season. Hopefully some lessons were learned and some new scienctific insights were made. The 2006 season is going to be looked at very warily. Epsilon is still kicking around out there in the Atlantic! We will continue to post relative Caribbean hurricane news here throughout the year so keep checking back.
November 24, 2005
Late-season Tropical Storm Delta strengthens in Atlantic
From the AP:
The 25th named storm of the season formed Wednesday and poses a threat only to shipping, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. It was not headed for the United States.
"It's way out there in the middle of nowhere," hurricane specialist Stacy Stewart said.
At 10 a.m. EST, Delta's top sustained winds had strengthened to 70 mph and the storm was expected to intensify. If winds reach 74 mph, it would be the season's 14th hurricane.
Delta was centered about 1,145 miles southwest of the Azores Islands. It was drifting east near 2 mph, and forecasters said the storm could stall over the open water before turning north. The storm was large, with tropical storm-force winds stretching 260 miles from its center.
The 25 named tropical storms and hurricanes this year broke the record for the busiest hurricane season. The previous record was 21 storms, set in 1933. The 13 hurricanes so far this year also broke the record of 12 set in 1969.
The six-month Atlantic hurricane season officially ends Wednesday, but forecasters warn that tropical storms and hurricanes can develop in December.
"There's no way of telling. We could certainly have one, maybe two by Christmas," Stewart said. "But these things usually form way out over the Atlantic, where they're mainly a threat to shipping. Rarely do they make landfall."
Last year, Tropical Storm Otto formed on the last day of the season, Nov. 30, and lasted until Dec. 3. In 2003, two storms, Odette and Peter, formed in December.
According to the National Hurricane Center, the latest hurricane to strike the U.S. was on Nov. 30, 1925, near Tampa.
Hurricane Katrina, which hit the Gulf Coast on Aug. 29, became the most expensive U.S. hurricane ever and the deadliest one to hit America since 1928.
November 21, 2005
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2005
...GAMMA DISSIPATING TO THE NORTH OF HONDURAS...
AT 10 PM EST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT
95 MILES... 155 KM...NORTH OF LIMON HONDURAS.
THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH... 4
KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GAMMA IS DISSIPATING INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 10 PM EST POSITION...17.2 N... 85.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON GAMMA UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
November 19, 2005
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
NOON CST SAT NOV 19 2005
...DISORGANIZED GAMMA AGAIN RE-LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE
FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE MEXICO BORDER...AND FOR
THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
FROM THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUNTA GRUESA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO
TULUM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA.
AT NOON CST...1800Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS
RE-LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST OR ABOUT
220 MILES... 335 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY AND ABOUT
315 MILES... 505 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO.
GAMMA IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD. A NORTHWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...
75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT GAMMA
HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND ONLY
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN BELIZE
AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAIN BANDS TRAILING GAMMA
COULD CAUSE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS
OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.
REPEATING THE NOON CST POSITION...16.2 N... 85.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2005
...GAMMA SLOWLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM
THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE
AND FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUNTA GRUESA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO TULUM.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1 AM EST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT
155 MILES... 250 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY AND ABOUT 185
MILES... 295 KM... SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA GRUESA MEXICO.
GAMMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER... SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY ALSO OCCUR DUE TO WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES... 165 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER BELIZE...WESTERN CUBA...AND
THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS
HONDURAS AND BELIZE LATER TODAY.
REPEATING THE 1 AM EST POSITION...16.7 N... 86.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
November 16, 2005
TD 27 weakens
Good news:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005
...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEPRESSION HAS LOST ITS
CLOSED CIRCULATION...
AT 10 AM EST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST OR ABOUT 370 MILES... 595 KM...SOUTHWEST OF
SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 305 MILES...
485 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...IN SQUALLS MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REMNANTS OF THE
CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED INTO A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 10 AM EST POSITION...14.7 N... 73.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.
November 15, 2005
Caribbean storm triggers mudslides
From CNN:
More here.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST TUE NOV 15 2005
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS DEPRESSION STILL DISORGANIZED...
INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.0 WEST OR
ABOUT 265 MILES... 420 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH... 20 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 1006
MB...29.71 INCHES.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS... NORTHERN VENEZUELA... AND POSSIBLY OVER
ARUBA... BONAIRE... AND CURACAO.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...14.8 N... 69.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
Right now it looks like a lot of rain but not much else is happening:
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST TUE NOV 15 2005
...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...
INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST OR
ABOUT 265 MILES... 425 KM... SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
MOST OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS OCCURRING IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO
RICO... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AREAS OF THE
WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...14.6 N... 66.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
November 14, 2005
Tropical Depression 27
The good news: It is still weak. It appears to be tracking through the middle of the Caribbean Sea. It in most likelihood will spare the Caribbean Islands significant damage.
The bad news: It has to end up somewhere and right now that looks like Central America at possibly hurricane force.
The 5:00 PM NHC update:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON NOV 14 2005
...DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND
AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST OR
ABOUT 235 MILES... 380 KM... WEST OF ST. LUCIA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH... 13
KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
TUESDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 8 INCHES OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...14.2 N... 64.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON NOV 14 2005
...DEPRESSION SLOWLY ORGANIZING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...
INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND
AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-SEVEN WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE
63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES... 280 KM... WEST OF ST. LUCIA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH... 11
KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. WINDS COULD STILL
GUST TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 8 INCHES OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...13.8 N... 63.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST MON NOV 14 2005
...LATE SEASON DEPRESSION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...
INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND
AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST OR
ABOUT 150 MILES... 240 KM... WEST OF ST. LUCIA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS MAY GUST TO TROPICAL STORM-FORCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 8 INCHES OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...13.8 N... 63.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
Tropical Depression Forms in Caribbean
From the AP:
MIAMI Nov 13, 2005 — A tropical depression formed late Sunday in the southeast Caribbean Sea and was expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Gamma on Monday, the National Hurricane Center said.
The storm was expected to be south of Jamaica by the end of the week, over Caribbean waters still warm enough to feed a major hurricane, said hurricane specialist Stacy Stewart."
November 6, 2005
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 06 2005
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT.
LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH THE SIGNATURE CURVATURE MASKED BY AN
UPPER LOW TO THE N. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W S OF 14N MOVING W 15
KT. LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE MOSTLY OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ABC ISLANDS TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 66W-70W.
CENTRAL AMERICAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W S OF 18N MOVING
W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH S UPPER FLOW ON THE W EDGE OF AN
UPPER HIGH. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
13N-20N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 8N29W 11N46W 9N57W 10N65W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG ARE FROM
3N-10N BETWEEN 9W-41W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SW AFRICA.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE GULF
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS
MOVING OUT OF THE PLAIN STATES TO OVER THE E U.S. WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS TEXAS TO N/CENTRAL MEXICO. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL SKIRT THE N GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER REMAINING WELL TO THE N.
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS
THE N GULF N OF 24N. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN/CENTRAL AMERICA
MOVES W. AT A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS N
FLORIDA SW TO THE SW GULF.
CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N82W
COVERING THE THE AREA W OF 75W AND EXTENDS N TO OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE UPPER HIGH IS INTERACTING
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS W
OF 80W. A SECOND SMALLER UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR
16N64W EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA INCLUDING THE W TROPICAL ATLC. THIS
SCENARIO IS LEAVING THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W DRY WITH ONLY
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN
MOVES OUT AND BEFORE THE TROPICAL W E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MOVES IN.
ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 50W WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW FROM 30N72W TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS NEAR 22N76W. A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N72W N TO BEYOND 32N71W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SECOND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS E OF BERMUDA FROM 33N59W TO 27N61W
WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH N OF
THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF
28N FROM 56W-60W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
ATLC MAINLY N OF THE REGION ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. IN THE S/CENTRAL ATLC A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 25N41W
THROUGH A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW NEAR 20N45W TO 13N47W. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS FROM THE E TROPICS FROM S OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 11N25W NNW TO 30N31W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE
W OF THE RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N AND GENERATING
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-26N BETWEEN 34W-44W.
THIS IS LEAVING THE E TROPICAL ATLC VIRTUALLY CLEAR AND DRY.
ALTHOUGH THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGES DO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF
AFRICAN DUST OVER THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH IS
LOCATED JUST N OF THE REGION NEAR 35N30W WITH A BROAD RIDGE
COVERING THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 50W.
