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May 30, 2006
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
Aletta is moving out to the Pacific:
...ALETTA MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST...TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CANCELED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA
MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.8 WEST OR ABOUT 120
MILES...195 KM...SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.
ALETTA IS MOVING WEST AT 4 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HOWEVER...SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH ALETTA IS DIMINISHING ALONG THE
COASTLINE.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...16.0 N...101.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST AT 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ON ALETTA ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
May 29, 2006
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
...ALETTA WEAKENS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF THE WARNED AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.4 WEST OR ABOUT 120
MILES...190 KM...SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.
ALETTA IS DRIFTING WESTWARD...AND A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN REGIONS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...16.0 N...101.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.
Tropical storm drops rain on Acapulco
From Reuters:
A fierce hurricane season last year devastated New Orleans, ravaged Mexico's Cancun resort and left hundreds of Mayan Indians buried under mud in Guatemala.
Tropical Storm Aletta sat in the Pacific, 135 miles from Acapulco in the western state of Guerrero, with maximum sustained winds of 45 miles per hour, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami, which said the storm could move toward land over the next day."
More here.
Haiti's Storm-Tossed Brace for New Season
Here is a report from Haiti via the Washington Post:
Now, almost two years later, Maitre, a mother of five, still lives in a skeletal dwelling of scrap metal and sticks that won't provide much shelter when the next powerful storm strikes Haiti.
"If we have another storm, I think we're all going to die," she said outside her home in Gonaives, a seaside city of dirt streets and open sewers in a region left vulnerable to storms by decades of deforestation.
Jeanne killed about 3,000 people in Gonaives and displaced many more. Today -- with the start of the new hurricane season just days away -- there is still a large fetid lake formed by floodwaters on the city's outskirts and thousands of people crammed into a shantytown that sprang up to house survivors."
More here.
While I was sleeping... Tropical Storm ALETTA
Technically this isn't a Caribbean storm (it is an Eastern Pacific storm - they have a different set of names), but it is the first named storm of the season, a few days early, and could affect travelers in Mexico:
...ALETTA BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TO THE EAST OF ACAPULCO MAY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST OR ABOUT 85
MILES...140 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
ALETTA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR...AND A
CONTINUED SLOW MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN REGIONS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...16.2 N...101.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.
May 24, 2006
NOAA PREDICTS VERY ACTIVE 2006 NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
On Monday the NOAA released their seasonal forecast:
The amount of storms is about the same as the Accuweather forecast. The release also has some good graphics to back up their predictions, and several links to audio files from the presentation including one from Dr. Max Mayfield.
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
The AP has released a very handy explanation of the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale:
The Saffir-Simpson scale of a hurricane's intensity is used to estimate the potential property damage and coastal flooding. The scale is determined by wind speed, since storm surge sizes depend on the slope of the continental shelf.
Caribbean region prepares for Hurricane Season
From RadioJamaica.com - a little light on the reporting, but at least there is some pan-Caribbean planning going on apparently:
Representatives of a number of international agencies are also attending the meeting.
The experts say this year's hurricane season could match last year's in the number and intensity of storms.
Joe Bastardi's 2006 Hurricane Forecast
"He's a Bastardi, but he's our Bastardi"
Love him or hate him (I like him, even though he is a bit of a maniac) Joe Bastardi has his 2006 Hurricane forecast out. I think Joe is right most of the time - he is passionate about what he does, and he does it well. Accuweather has a link up to his video forecast but it is not working at the moment - if it comes back we will make a post to it. So, what is Joe saying for 2006?
There is more here, and the new Accuweather hurricane section is here.
May 17, 2006
Forecasters find new hurricane clues
There is a very interesting new article on the MSNBC site up about these "hot towers":
Using a satellite last summer to study Hurricane Rita from above, scientists discovered that towering clouds near the storm's eye were good predictors of future storm strength.
If rain falls from clouds soaring to 9 miles high, and the rain persists, winds at the surface are likely to get stronger, the study concludes."
Follow this link for the full article and graphics.
May 9, 2006
Experts See Weaker 2006 Hurricane Season
Well, I don't think anyone was saying that this coming hurricane season was going to be stronger that last year's - but it seems so far the news has been that it has the potential to be at least as strong or as dangerous. This Discovery Channel article is the first one I can recall seeing that seems to go against that consensus:
The latest hopeful sign is the recent demise of the hurricane-boosting La Niña condition in the Pacific. After that is the storm-fueling sea surface temperature in the Atlantic, which is not so hot this year.
Satellite sensors and ocean buoys show that the La Niña condition — the vast pooling of unusually cool surface water in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean — which formed late last year is now almost entirely gone. And while that does not guarantee a hurricane-free year, it's a good sign that the worst possible hurricane-making scenarios are not in the offing."
There is more here.
May 8, 2006
World's largest hurricane conference to begin Monday in Fort Lauderdale
The Sun-Sentinel.com is reporting:
By Ken Kaye
South Florida Sun-Sentinel
Posted May 7 2006
Fort Lauderdale on Monday will play host to the largest hurricane conference in the world, six months after Hurricane Wilma raked this region.
More than 5,000 people plan to attend the five-day Governor's Hurricane Conference at the Broward Convention Center, including emergency, government, law enforcement and medical workers from scores of Florida cities and counties."
More here.
May 5, 2006
Forecasters Predict an Active Atlantic Hurricane Season
From the Environment News Service:
Their updated forecast, released in late April, projects 17 named storms, of which nine will become hurricanes."
There is more here.
May 3, 2006
Mexico to host first world hurricane conference
From The People's Daily Online (Strange, but I didn't see anyone else pick this story up - this is a English language version of a Chinses news site.)
Pedro Flota Alcocer, who is head of public security in the southeast Mexico state of Quintana Roo, said participants would discuss preventative measures on a hurricane emergency.
In particular, the delegates will discuss the risk to public health and the risk of forest fires following a hurricane.
On the delegate list are representatives from countries close to the Gulf of Mexico, as well as 32 directors of Mexico's civil defense forces, and other specialists from Asia, Europe and Latin America.
Quintana Roo was hit by Hurricanes Gilbert and Wilma last year, with heavy property losses and a small number of people killed."
May 2, 2006
Test storm alert causes stir
The Caymanian Compass is reporting the following:
The false report also made the rounds through email in Grand Cayman.
The alert stated that the Government of Cuba had issued a Tropical Storm Watch for western Cuba. The centre of the storm was reported at 17.2 N 84.0 W, or approximately 230 miles southwest of Grand Cayman, and was heading due north at six knots."
More here. This is the first time I have run across this particular website - does anyone know if it is new or anything else about it?
May 1, 2006
Hurricane forecasters refining ability to make predictions
From the Scripps Howard News Service:
Gert was the product of a prolific tropical wave that moved off the west coast of Africa in mid-July. The northern half of the wave generated Tropical Storm Franklin near the central Bahamas July 18, with the southern branch moving across the Caribbean Sea and developing into a tropical depression July 23.
A large team of researchers was close by to measure all the ingredients that went into Gert's formation. The Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes Experiment _ which included scientists from NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Meteorological Institute of Costa Rica and several universities _ worked out of Costa Rica for most of the month using weather aircraft and satellites to study how cloud formations in Central America interacted with storm systems coming off the Atlantic."
More here.
Cubans feeling vulnerable as another hurricane season approaches
From the Kansas City Star:
Yet for several generations, this coastal pocket on the lee side of the Sierra Maestra seemed immune from harm.
"The mountains protected us," said life-long resident Hector Martinez, 67, recalling how tempest after tempest was either deflected or robbed of its punch.
But last July, for the first time in memory, a major storm roared up the Jamaica Channel, cracked the glass in the Cabo Cruz lighthouse, and raked the promontory with winds as high as 145 mph.
Hurricane Dennis killed 16 people in Cuba, including 13 in Granma province, and destroyed or damaged tens of thousands of homes in a nation already reeling under a housing crisis.
Now, on the cusp of another hurricane season predicted to be as busy as the last, many local residents living in barely patched-up houses admit that last July's Category 4 storm shredded a sense of invulnerability that once sustained them.
More here.
