June 29, 2006
Tropical storm threat dies in Atlantic
From the News-Press.com:
The low is expected to merge with a frontal system later today, forecasters said, and will likely cause heavy rains and gusty winds through the mid-Atlantic states and New England.
June 27, 2006
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
The NHC has put out a special statement this morning about the system currently off the Georgia coast. It is not a threat to the Caribbean but we will try to follow it and keep you posted.
SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION INDICATE THAT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING TO DETERMINE IF A CLOSED
CIRCULATION EXISTS AT THE SURFACE.
RESIDENTS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE
REQUIRED WITH LITTLE NOTICE. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT FORM INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
ONSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.
June 26, 2006
Hurricane Center: lows over Florida and far out in the Atlantic
From the HeraldToday.com:
"A broad and diffuse area of low pressure extends over the Florida Peninsula. This system, coupled with an upper-level low over the northwestern Bahamas, is enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity," said a hurricane center advisory at 5:30 a.m.
Gusty winds and continued heavy rain are possible for several days, the advisory said.
Far out in the Atlantic toward Africa, "significant development...is not expected" from the low pressure area that is east-southeast of the Windward Islands.
"Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Tuesday," the advisory said."
Things have been quiet, which is great news for Caribbean residents and visitors.
June 18, 2006
Best Caribbean options for hurricane season
From the Charlotte Observer:
Finding a dry Caribbean beach in hurricane season is always a gamble, but travelers can greatly sweeten their odds by choosing the right island.The safest bets: Aruba, Bonaire or Curacao, the so-called ABC islands, all located at the southernmost tip of the Lesser Antilles; Trinidad and Tobago, perched beyond the southern end of the Windward chain; and Margarita Island, just off the coast of Venezuela. Visit any of these islands in hurricane season, and you'll face only a 2 percent chance of encountering a serious storm, according to NOAA.
One reason is that the islands' proximity to the equator prevents the wind conditions hurricanes require. Another is that most of the major storm systems, originating in Africa at about 10 degrees north of the equator, head to the northwest across the Atlantic and are usually at a higher latitude than these islands by the time they reach the Caribbean.
And the islands most likely to be hit?
You may want to think twice about heading to Grand Bahama Island in September, the stormiest month of the year in the Caribbean. By the Caribbean Hurricane Network's accounting, that piece of paradise has been hit by 40 hurricanes over the past 150 years, averaging one every four years. That makes it one of the most storm-prone islands and one of the riskiest to visit during hurricane season. Bermuda and the Virgin Islands also frequently affected by heavy storms and hurricanes, particularly in early September to mid-October.
Weather experts are quick to point out that no island is totally hurricane-free.
"The ABCs are not out of the Caribbean hurricane zone," noted Arthur Dania, director of the Curacao-based Meteorological Service of the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba. "We're at the southern fringe of the zone. Although storms are rare here, they can happen," he added. The last major hurricane to slap this region directly was on Sept. 23, 1877, before storms were given names.
Travelers should also not rule out a summer or fall Caribbean cruise as too risky. Modern cruise ships are equipped with sophisticated storm-warning systems. And they have well-honed procedures in case a storm system gathers while the ship is at sea. They can also outrun hurricanes.
June 13, 2006
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 13
It looks like Alberto will not be a hurricane when it makes landfall, which is great news for Florida:
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
ATLANTIC COAST FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO
ENGLEWOOD...AND WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES... 95 KM...SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 65
MILES...105 KM...WEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.
ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL NEAR MIDDAY
TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR RESTRENGTHENING...
THE LIKELIHOOD THAT ALBERTO WILL BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO
LANDFALL IS DECREASING.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH TODAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
TODAY.
REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...29.2 N...84.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.
You can always find the latest update here.
Tropical Storm Weakens as It Approaches Florida Coast
Bloomberg is reporting:
Alberto's maximum sustained winds were 65 miles per hour (105 kph) at 5 a.m. Florida time, from 70 mph late yesterday, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said in an online advisory. Florida's Gulf Coast from Longboat Key to the Ochlockonee River was under a hurricane warning, indicating hurricane conditions are expected within 24 hours.
``Although some potential still exists for restrengthening, the likelihood that Alberto will become a hurricane prior to landfall is decreasing,'' the center said. Hurricanes have sustained winds of at least 74 mph.
The storm's eye was about 60 miles southeast of Apalachicola, in Florida's Panhandle, and 65 miles west of Cedar Key, and moving toward the northeast at about 9 mph, according to the advisory. Tropical storm-force winds of between 39 mph and 73 mph extended 175 miles from the storm's center.
"There could be minor structural damage," meteorologist Eric Blake said in a telephone interview from the Hurricane Center. "You don't want to be in a mobile home -- it's not a pleasant place to be."
Tropical Storm Alberto Drenches Cuba
As Much As 18 Inches Of Rain Has Fallen In Western Cuba
CBS4 News) WESTERN CUBA Tropical Storm Alberto, the first named storm of the 2006 Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Season, continues heading toward Florida after dumping rain over western Cuba.
The weather system forced the evacuation of at least 27,000 people in western Cuba because of the threat of flooding, Cuba's National Information Agency said on its Web site.
Flooding is making it difficult to travel both by car and by foot and even trucks are having a tough time getting around.
Parts of the country received as much as 18 inches of rain in a 24 hour period ending early Sunday, the official Granma newspaper reported on its Web site.
More here.
June 12, 2006
Hurricane warning now posted for Alberto
...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS ALBERTO LOCATED FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
AND STRONGER...
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO
ENGLEWOOD...AND WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO
BONITA BEACH.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF ALBERTO HAS REFORMED TO THE NORTHEAST OF ITS PREVIOUS
LOCATION.
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT
190 MILES...300 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND
ABOUT 220 MILES...355 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.
ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALBERTO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370
KM...TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LARGE EXTENT
OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MEANS THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE FELT
ALONG THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.
THE HURRICANE HUNTERS RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA...MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF ALBERTO.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...27.1 N...85.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.
Alberto stregthens
Alberto has become a bit better organized and will be a definite threat to Florida. This is no longer a storm that has much to do with the Caribbean, so we probably will not be following it that closely unless something unexpected happens (like it crossing Florida and becoming a problem for the Bahamas - which is not likely). You can go here for the latest Public Advisory - we suggest you bookmark that page, as it will always have the latest update from the National Hurricane Center.
June 11, 2006
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 7
We have the first named storm - Alberto. Right now it looks to be much more of a rain event that anything else. It is a Gulf of Mexico storm at this point and really should not affect the Caribbean.
...DISORGANIZED ALBERTO MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...
AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8
WEST OR ABOUT 375 MILES...605 KM...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND
ABOUT 400 MILES...640 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.
ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THIS TROPICAL STORM ARE WELL REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER...AND EXTEND MAINLY EASTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY.
REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...24.5 N...87.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.
First '06 Storm Likely to Soak Fla., Cuba
From the AP:
By midday, the storm had maximum sustained wind near 45 mph, up 10 mph from early in the morning, but it was not likely to grow into a hurricane, the National Hurricane Center said.
"The satellite presentation of the storm is not very impressive, so not much additional strengthening is anticipated," said hurricane specialist Richard Pasch.
The prospect of a wet storm without hurricane-force wind was welcomed by firefighters who have been battling wildfires for six weeks on Florida's east coast.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
Technically this storm most likely won't be affecting the Caribbean that much - if it becomes a tropical storm the impact will be to Florida and the east coast:
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...FORECAST TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...
INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE
86.2 WEST OR ABOUT 290 MILES...465 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST
FLORIDA AND ABOUT 440 MILES...710 KM...SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND
THIS TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THIS COULD CAUSE DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
WESTERN FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY.
June 10, 2006
Caribbean braced for first storm
From the BBC:
There are warnings of heavy rain, flash floods and mudslides in Cuba, the Cayman Islands and western Florida.
The 2005 season was the most destructive on record with 15 hurricanes including Katrina, blamed for deaths of more than 1,300 people.
The US Climate Agency says this year is expected to be "above normal" but less active than last year.
Between 13 and 16 named storms have been predicted, of which four will be "major storms" of category three or above.
The US hurricane season started on 1 June and lasts until 30 November.
The depression was detected 80km (50 miles) southwest of Cuba's western tip at 1300 GMT, moving northwest at 19km/h.
Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Isle of Youth.
"Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm later today," the US National Hurricane Center said in an advisory.
Tropical depression forms in northwest Caribbean
From the AP and the Palm Beach Post:
The depression was expected to become the year's first named storm — Alberto — as it veers toward Florida but was not expected to become a hurricane.
"It will be relatively weak in terms of wind, but that doesn't mean it's going to be weak in terms of rainfall," senior hurricane specialist Stacy Stewart said.
Last year's hurricane season was the busiest and most destructive in recorded history. Hurricane Katrina alone devastated Louisiana and Mississippi and was blamed for more than 1,570 deaths in Louisiana alone.
The depression that formed Saturday, nine days after the official start of the season, had maximum sustained winds near 35 mph, just below the 39-mph threshold for a tropical storm, according to the National Hurricane Center.
At 5 p.m. EDT, the poorly organized depression was centered in the Caribbean Sea about 50 miles west of Cabo San Antonio on the western tip of Cuba, forecasters said. It was moving north-northwest near 6 mph.
The hurricane center recommended tropical storm warnings for the Cuban provinces of Pinar Del Rio and the Isle of Youth.
Over the next three days, the system was expected to move through the Yucatan Channel into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, then toward Florida where it could make landfall Monday or Tuesday somewhere between South Florida and the western tip of the Panhandle, forecasters said.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 1030 PM EDT FRI JUN 09 2006
1030 PM EDT FRI JUN 09 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN HONDURAS AND WESTERN
CUBA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
EXTREME WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BRINGING SQUALLS AND
ADDITIONAL RAINS TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF CUBA. AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
BECAUSE DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR NEAR CUBA AT ANY TIME ON
SATURDAY...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA.
Tropical system stirs Web bluster
Interesting article about hurricanes and the web from the St. Petersburg Times:
While meteorologists closely watch a low-pressure system near the Yucatan Peninsula, a growing legion of weather bloggers has posted theories about whether this could become the first hurricane to hit the United States this year.
“They’re all very abuzz about this — maybe out of all proportion to what’s going on,’’ said Jack Beven, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
The low pressure system could become a tropical depression today and bring rainy weather to the Tampa Bay area by Sunday.
Hurricane season started June 1. Anyone familiar with what Hurricane Katrina did to Louisiana and Mississippi last year, or what damage was done by the four hurricanes that hit Florida in 2004, knows to keep an eye on weather conditions in the Gulf of Mexico.
Now, besides the usual TV and radio updates, weather blogs such as www.thestormtrack.com and flhurricane.com are blaring out warnings on the Web.
Some of the blogs are put together by qualified meteorologists, while others, such as irishtrojan.com, are the work of amateurs with no formal training. The irishtrojan.com blog is run by a 24-year-old University of Notre Dame law student and self-professed “weather nerd’’ named Brendan Loy.
More here.
First tropical storm may form
From DisasterNews.net:
This system has the potential to become TS Alberto. We will be watching it closely over the weekend.
June 9, 2006
Eight hurricanes forecast for 2006 season
From a Canadian insurance site, CanadianUnderwriter.ca:
• A 74% probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, a 22% probability of a near-normal season and only a 4% chance of a below-normal season.
• An expectation of 14 tropical storms for the Atlantic basin as a whole; 8 of these would be hurricanes, including 3 intense hurricanes.
• A 70% probability of above-normal U.S. landfall hurricane activity, a 22% likelihood of a near-normal season and only an 8% chance of a below-normal season.
• Four tropical storm strikes on the U.S., of which 2 will be hurricanes.
TSR is an award-winning consortium of experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting led by the Benfield Hazard Research Centre at University College London.
Is something brewing?
The latest tropical outlook from the NHC:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES FROM CENTRAL AMERICA
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND PORTIONS
OF CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERING EASTERN YUCATAN AND THE GULF
OF HONDURAS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM LAND.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.
June 2, 2006
2006 Tropical Storm & Hurricane Archive
Here are our archives of the storms we covered in 2006:
Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
And here is the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season archive page from the NHC. Files are available in PDF and MS Word format. A good resource for information seekers and researchers.
Tropical Storm Beryl
Since Beryl never was a Caribbean storm, we didn't cover it. Here is the Wikipedia page for Beryl:
