Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) anticipates Atlantic basin and U.S. landfall hurricane activity will be 40% above the long-term (1950-2005) norm in 2006. The TSR prediction includes:

• A 74% probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, a 22% probability of a near-normal season and only a 4% chance of a below-normal season.

• An expectation of 14 tropical storms for the Atlantic basin as a whole; 8 of these would be hurricanes, including 3 intense hurricanes.

• A 70% probability of above-normal U.S. landfall hurricane activity, a 22% likelihood of a near-normal season and only an 8% chance of a below-normal season.

• Four tropical storm strikes on the U.S., of which 2 will be hurricanes.

TSR is an award-winning consortium of experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting led by the Benfield Hazard Research Centre at University College London.