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August 29, 2006
Ernesto off the Cuban coast this morning
Ernesto's center is just off the coast of Cuba this morning. It now looks to be set to track straight into Florida as a tropical storm, not a hurricane, which is good news for Florida and Georgia.
August 28, 2006
Tropical storm Ernesto slams into Cuba en route to expected landing in Florida
From the AP:
Ernesto leaves Haiti, heads for Cuba
Ernesto is now a tropical storm, but it forecast to regain hurricane status and make it up the east coast of Florida:
August 27, 2006
Ernesto now a hurricane
Ernesto looks a little disorganized on the satellite images this morning, but has reached hurricane force:
...ERNESTO...NOW A HURRICANE...APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA
OF HAITI...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF
HISPANIOLA...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI
FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN
EASTERN CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA
AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST OR ABOUT 115
MILES...180 KM...SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT
210 MILES...340 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS
EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING ...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA
MONDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF CUBA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
APPROACHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA.
REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...17.3 N...73.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
August 26, 2006
Satellite image of Ernesto
Tropical Storm Ernesto shown in this photo collected at 11:45 PM EDT Aug. 25, 2006 which is provided by the Naval Research Lab. Ernesto formed Friday over the Caribbean as it moved toward Jamaica and the Cayman Islands and could develop into the first hurricane of the 2006 Atlantic season, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said. From the AP.
ERNESTO STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
...ERNESTO STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA LATER TODAY.
A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER
THIS MORNING. INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.6 WEST OR ABOUT 245
MILES...395 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 455 MILES...730 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON
JAMAICA.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF ERNESTO WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...80
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 997 MB...29.50 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ERNESTO ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND JAMAICA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...15.0 N...70.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
August 25, 2006
Ernesto earns his name
TD 5 has now become Ernesto. This storm could definitely impact Jamaica, the Caymans and perhaps Cuba. More from Reuters:
The storm was forecast to reach the Gulf of Mexico early on Wednesday and could threaten oil and gas production that has not yet fully recovered from last year's hurricanes.
Max Mayfield to retire as director of hurricane center
Big news today in the tropical weather community - Max Mayfield announced his surprise retirement. From the Miami Herald:
''No one event has caused this,'' he told shocked forecasters during the usual afternoon ''map discussion'' to review conditions in the hurricane zone. "'I've been here 34 years and as Forrest Gump said in the movie, 'I'm tired and I want to go home.' ''
The staff expected to hear only about Tropical Storm Debby and Tropical Depression 5, which is expected to grow into Tropical Storm Ernesto as it moves through the Caribbean.
Along with that, they heard the bombshell announcement, which took less than a minute.
''My last day is going to be Jan. 3,'' he told his forecasters and support staff. "Let's give it everything we've got. Now, get back to work.''
More here.
Tropical Depression 5
This thing is starting to look serious and could definitely impact the Caribbean over the next week or so:
...DEPRESSION ALMOST A TROPICAL STORM...
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST OR ABOUT 345
MILES...560 KM... SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH AND A MOTION
GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM SHIP OBSERVATIONS IS
1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...13.4 N...65.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
Tropical Storm May Form Over Caribbean, Center Says
There is a new area of concern that the NHC has their eyes on:
Tropical Depression 5 was about 345 miles (560 kilometers) south of San Juan, Puerto Rico, shortly before 5 a.m. local time, according to an online advisory from the National Hurricane Center in Miami. The system's maximum sustained winds of 35 miles per hour were just 4 mph short of tropical-storm strength.
"Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or tonight,'' the center said. "The depression is moving toward the west near 20 mph and a motion generally toward the west-northwest with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next day or so.'' If it becomes a storm, it will be called Ernesto.
More here from Bloomberg.com
August 24, 2006
Debby is no threat to the Caribbean
Debby is churning away out in the Atlantic and seems to be no threat to the Caribbean at this time:
...DEBBY REMAINS NO THREAT TO LAND...
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.8 WEST OR ABOUT 955
MILES...1535 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...20.4 N...37.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
August 23, 2006
Tropical Storm Debby Forms in Atlantic
It is a long way off and may not affect the Caribbean, but the AP is reporting:
This general direction was expected to continue for the next 24 hours, the National Hurricane Center said.
The storm had maximum sustained winds near 40 mph, with some strengthening forecast for the next 24 hours.
Cape Verde is 350 miles off the African coast.
Long-range forecasts show the storm nearing Bermuda in about a week. But it was still too early to tell if it would hit land, senior hurricane specialist James Franklin said.
It is the fourth named storm of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season.
August 4, 2006
CHRIS PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS
Winds are only 35 MPH, but Chris keeps going:
...CHRIS PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE
EXUMAS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN CUBA...AS WELL AS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHRIS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES... 30 KM...NORTH
OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND AND ABOUT 285 MILES...460 KM...EAST OF
CAMAGUEY CUBA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH... 20 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL TAKE THE CENTER OF CHRIS WEST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA ON
SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY INCREASE IN STRENGTH WOULD BRING CHRIS BACK TO
TROPICAL STORM STATUS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS...HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 4
INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...21.5 N...73.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.
Tropical Storm Chris loses steam
From the AP:
Despite early concerns, the Bahamian government discontinued a hurricane watch in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, the National Hurricane Center said Thursday.
The watch, discontinued at 5 a.m. EDT, included the Acklins, Crooked Island, The Inaguas, Mayaguana and the Ragged Islands. Tropical Storm Chris was expected to move away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands sometime Thursday, forecasters said.
Its top maximum sustained winds were at 45 mph, down 15 miles from Wednesday night, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. The center of the storm was about 315 miles east southeast of Grand Turk Island and about 135 miles north of San Juan.
At 11 p.m. Wednesday, wind speeds had reached as high as 60 mph, the hurricane center said.
Authorities in the Bahamas, an archipelago of 700 islands accustomed to stormy weather, had urged people to stock up on water and canned food and to board up their windows as the third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season approached.
In Staniel Cay, about 75 miles south of Nassau, the Bahamas' capital city, boat owners secured their vessels and tracked the storm's progress through the eastern Caribbean.
"We're just battening down the hatches and tying everything down," said Ernie Sullivan, a boat owner at the Staniel Cay Yacht Club. "You just can't say if this thing will pick up steam."
Some 600 tourists evacuated Culebra and Vieques, small islands off Puerto Rico's east coast, as the storm approached. The storm was projected to pass at least 100 miles north of Puerto Rico, but could produce strong wind gusts and up to 8 inches of rain, creating the risk of flash floods and mudslides.
People in the islands of Antigua and St. Maarten awoke to a light rain. There were no reports of major flooding or other damage from the storm.
Royal Caribbean, the cruise line operator, said it was altering the itineraries of three ships -- the Navigator of the Seas, the Explorer of the Seas and the Freedom of the Seas -- to avoid the storm.
In Anguilla, Chris brought heavy rain and strong winds overnight but the storm was much less severe than expected because it shifted to the north at the last minute, said Elizabeth Klute, director of the disaster management agency for the British Caribbean territory.
"It just kind of skirted us," Klute said. "It's moving on."
Richard Pasch, a hurricane specialist at the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami, said the storm was likely to churn past the island of Hispaniola, which is shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, where even minor storms can send water gushing down denuded hills.
"It would seem that it would stay on the fringes of the island as we're seeing this storm on a more westward track," Pasch said. "But it's a little uncertain at this stage."
The first named storm of the 2006 season, Tropical Storm Alberto, swept over Florida in mid-June, then plowed northward along the U.S. coast past the Outer Banks. It was blamed for one death.
Last season was the worst in more than 150 years of records. A record number of tropical storms and hurricanes formed, including the devastating Hurricane Katrina.
August 3, 2006
Good news for the Caribbean
This morning Chris is barely a tropical storm:
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI TO CABO
ENGANO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.8 WEST OR ABOUT 285
MILES...460 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.
CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR...AND A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.
CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES THROUGH TODAY.
The next update from the NHC is at 11:00 AM EST.
August 2, 2006
Tropical Storm Chris Update
At about 10:00 PM here on St. Thomas we have some bands of moderate to heavy rain, with not much in the way of wind. This seems to be about the worst the US Virgin Islands will see from this storm as it is well north of us and moving past. Chris does appear to be headed for hurricane status however, and the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas are now or soon will be under a hurricane watch.
All quiet on the Chris front
At 4:00 PM in the US Virgin Islands there is just a whisper of wind, and while the sky is pretty dark there really has not been much rain either. That should change later today and tonight as some of the feeder bands on the south side of the storm swing through, but the center of the storm seems well enough north of the Virgin Islands to make this a pretty much non-event here. The Turks & Caicos and The Bahamas may not be as lucky as we were however. We will keep a close eye on this storm until it is out of the Caribbean region.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...165 KM...NORTHEAST OF ST. THOMAS.
CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME
OF THE STRONG RAIN BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS MAY AFFECT
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CHRIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES...120 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...19.5 N...64.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
Topical Storm Chris better organized, but skirting the islands
So far the Caribbean islands have dodged the bullet with Tropical Storm (soon perhaps to be hurricane) Chris. It has slowed downed (10 MPH) and gotten a bit stronger (60 MPH winds) but is far enough north of us here on St. Thomas to be not much worse that some of the recent tropical waves that have passed through (lots of rain - always good - and some gusty winds). Tropical Storm warnings are already coming down in Antigua. This storm still has to be watched and will continue to affect the Caribbean for several more days at the least. Remember to check out our Caribbean webcams page for up to the minute images of the region.
CORRECTED STORM MOTION SECTION
...CHRIS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT SKIRTS THE NORTHERNMOST
LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANGUILLA...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN...AND
ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...
ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES... 95 KM...NORTHEAST OF ST. MARTIN.
CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING...AND REMAIN NORTH
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONG RAIN BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS
MAY AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND CHRIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES...120 KM
...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...18.8 N...62.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.
August 1, 2006
Tropical Storm Chris forms near Caribbean islands
From Reuters:
Chris, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (64 kph), was about 135 miles east of Antigua at 8 a.m. EDT (1200 GMT), the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said.
The hurricane center said Chris was moving to the west-northwest at about 9 mph (14 kph) on a path that would take it north of Puerto Rico and the island of Hispaniola, which is shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
It would reach the central Bahamas by Sunday, headed toward the southeast Florida coast, forecasters said.
A tropical storm warning, telling residents to expect storm conditions within 24 hours, was issued for Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Barthelemy and St. Martin.
Puerto Rico, a U.S. territory with about 4 million people, was under a storm watch, meaning possible storm conditions in 36 hours. The U.S. and British Virgin Islands were put under the same alert.
Forecasters said the storm had the potential to strengthen.
The second storm of the season, Tropical Storm Beryl, skirted the North Carolina coast and blew over Nantucket Island and other popular northeastern U.S. tourist playgrounds in July.
The first storm of what is expected to be a busy June to November hurricane season was Alberto, which moved ashore harmlessly in the Florida Panhandle in mid-June.
Forecasters have predicted up to 17 tropical storms and hurricanes this year. Last year saw a record 28, including Hurricane Katrina, the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history. It devastated New Orleans and other parts of the Gulf Coast and killed more than 1,300 people.
Tropical Storm Chris
Well that was fast. Yesterday the news was that this thing would not develop - today:
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM CHRIS...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...
AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS HAVE ISSUED
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...
ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AT 5 AM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.2 WEST OR ABOUT
175 MILES...280 KM...EAST OF ANTIGUA.
CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL HEADING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR
NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE A MORE
ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF CHRIS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
NEAR 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CHRIS.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...16.6 N...59.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.
