Caribbean-On-Line's Caribbean Hurricane Blog



Hurricane Dean

Death toll from Hurricane Dean rises

Published on August 25, 2007 7:23 AM | Comments

From the AFP:

Officials in central Mexico said they found a ninth victim of Hurricane Dean, bringing the overall storm death toll to at least 26.

The man, a 65-year-old shepherd, drowned when he was swept into a drainage canal overflowing with water from Dean, officials in the state of Hidalgo said.

Hurricane Dean had earlier killed at least 17 people during its rampage across the Caribbean.

Several rivers burst their banks on Thursday in Hidalgo, cutting off roads and damaging farmland. More than 10,000 people in the state were evacuated to higher ground as river levels continued to rise.

Dean first slammed ashore on Mexico's Caribbean coast on Tuesday as a monster hurricane of the topmost category five. It gradually lost steam as it crossed the Yucatan Peninsula before swirling over the Gulf of Mexico and heading inland once more.

At its peak on Tuesday, Dean packed maximum sustained winds of 270 kilometres per hour, making it the first category 5 Atlantic hurricane to hit land since Andrew ravaged the US state of Florida in 1992.



Hurricane Dean Update from Jamaica

Published on August 25, 2007 5:01 AM | Comments

Following is a detailed update from Jamaica with property reports, the condition of golf courses, power and road conditions, etc.

Hurricane Dean Update
JAMAICA TOURIST BOARD - UPDATE #24

Published on 8/24/2007 12:00:00 AM
Kingston, Jamaica - Friday, August 24, 2007 – 5:30 p.m.

SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS ON THE TOURISM SECTOR IN JAMAICA


Information compiled from US based public relations agencies, JTB, and TEOC Assessment.

The Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM) is reporting that there is currently a total of 64 shelters opened across the island, housing some 1,986 persons.

ROAD ACCESS:

Mount Rosser, Flat Bridge, the South Coast as well as the Negril to Montego Bay routes are all accessible to regular traffic.

Treasure Beach roads are now cleared, but caution is needed due to downed poles.

The main roads from Ocho Rios to Montego Bay and Negril are all clear.

POWER

Over 40% of Jamaica Public Service (JPS) customers now have their power supply, as a result of the efforts of JPS technical teams and contractors who have continued to work steadily to restore electricity to the island since the passage of Hurricane Dean on Sunday, August 19.

JPS remains optimistic that by Sunday, August 26, power will be restored to most areas in the following parishes: Kingston & St. Andrew, St. Catherine, St. James, Westmoreland, Hanover, Trelawny and St. Ann. The Company expects to have power supply restored to most customers in St. Thomas, Portland, and St. Mary by the end of next week. It could be weeks, however, before there is complete restoration in Clarendon, Manchester, and St. Elizabeth, as a result of the severe damage to the Company’s transmission network in the south of the island.

WATER

The National Water Commission (NWC) is pleased to report that a further 28 water supply systems have been put back into operation since yesterday based on the hardworking efforts of its field personnel as well as the effort of the JPSCo in restoring power to more water systems.

With the systems now back in operation, including most of the NWC’s largest systems, approximately 60% of the NWC’s production capacity is now back in operation although with a smaller percentage of the total 460 water supply systems islandwide.

The systems put back into operation since yesterday include:

Kingston and St. Andrew
  • Havendale Deepwell

  • Forest Hills Reservoir and Relift

  • Whitemarl # 1 and # 2

  • Drummond Filter Plant

  • Craig Hill

  • Hibbert Spring


  • St. Thomas
  • Georgia

  • Arntully Grove

  • Wilmington

  • Port Morant (50%)

  • Windsor Castle

  • Cedar Valley

  • Crab River

  • Trinityville


  • Portland
  • Guava Walk

  • Hope Bay

  • Lancaster

  • Haining


  • St. Catherine
  • Twickenham Park

  • Friendship

  • Angels

  • Central Village


  • St. James
  • Canaan

  • Ducketts

  • Irwindale

  • Porto Bello


  • Hanover
  • Esher

  • Batchelor’s Hall


  • These systems are in addition to those that were previously put back into operation and which continue to serve customers.

    Inspite of this very significant achievement, the NWC continues to implore customers to expect occasional interruptions on these systems and instances of low water pressure as the systems are not yet stabilised or fully charged.

    With more and more water supply systems now back in operation, the NWC is now concentrating all its efforts and resources on restoring the other systems into operation and trucking water to these remaining areas.

    INTERNATIONAL CARRIERS AND OPERATORS

    Continental Airlines
    For the period August 23 to August 26, 2007, the following flights are scheduled from Continental Europe to Jamaica:

    Friday, August 24
    Air Italy (Livingston #) – Italy

    Saturday, August 25
    Jet Air – Belgium

    Sunday, August 26
    Volare/Air Europe – Italy

    Air Canada Vacations – are operating business as usual.

    Martin Air (Amsterdam) – continuing normally scheduled service.

    Soltour (Spain) – Sending two empty aircrafts (one from MAD one from LIS) to Montego Bay to pick up visitors to return home. Have canceled this week's departure and will reinstate normal operation for week of August 27.

    Sunquest Vacations - Operating flights to Jamaica this weekend, offering air-only specials for Jamaicans who want to go and visit families.

    Sunwing - Have not been receiving a lot of cancellations from passengers, mainly date changes.

    Thomas Cook (Germany) – Has confirmed decision to send guests on Condor and LTU this Wednesday, August 22 and Thursday, August 23.

    JAMAICA AIRPORTS

    Sangster International Airport and Norman Manley International Airport

    All Air Jamaica flights to and from Kingston and Montego Bay, Jamaica will operate as scheduled today. Only passengers who are confirmed for travel today should go to the airport. Passengers not confirmed today should contact Air Jamaica reservations or their travel agent for rebooking. Passengers traveling today are advised to check in a minimum of three hours prior to scheduled departure.

    Passengers are being asked to visit www.airjamaica.com or call Air Jamaica reservations for up-to-date information regarding your flight. In Jamaica: 1-888-FLY-AIR-J. In the USA, Canada or the Caribbean: 1-800-523-5585

    RESORT AREA: MONTEGO BAY/FALMOUTH


    ACCOMMODATIONS/ ATTRACTIONS

    STATUS REPORTED

    Bamboo Village

    Damage.

    Breezes Montego Bay

    Open.

    Chukka Caribbean

    Open.

    Coyaba

    Minimal damage. 100% occupied.

    Doctor's Cave

    No structural damage.

    Half Moon

    No structural damage –accepting guests.

    Holiday Inn

    No structural damage. Open.

    Iberostar Rose Hall

    No structural damage.

    Ritz Carlton

    Accepting new reservations on Thurs, Aug. 23.

    Riu Montego Bay

    Open.

    Rose Hall Resort & Country Club

    No Damage, Renovating opening November 15th.

    Round Hill

    Open.

    Royal DeCameron

    No damage.

    Sandals Inn

    No structural damage.

    Sandals Montego Bay

    No structural damage.

    Sandals Royal Caribbean

    No structural damage.

    Sunset Beach Resort & Spa

    Open.

    Tryall

    Minimal damage. Reopen this weekend.



    RESORT AREA: KINGSTON

    Overall Status
    Some damage to hotels in New Kingston. See Table below:

    ACCOMMODATIONS/ ATTRACTIONS

    STATUS REPORTED

    Altamont Court Hotel

    Minimal damage to roof, foliage.

    Courtleigh Hotel

    Minimal damage – windows, foliage, etc.

    Hilton Hotel

    Open

    Pegasus Hotel

    Temporarily out of service.

    Strawberry Hill

    Will open Friday August 24.



    RESORT AREA: OCHO RIOS

    Overall Status
    No major damage was reported. See Table below:

    ACCOMMODATIONS/ ATTRACTIONS

    STATUS REPORTED

    Bahia Principe

    Minimal damage.

    Beaches Boscobel

    No structural damage.

    Breezes Runaway Bay

    Open.

    Chukka Caribbean

    Open

    Couples Ocho Rios

    Open.

    Couples San Souci

    Open.

    Dolphin Cove

    Open.

    Dunn’s River Falls

    Open.

    FDR

    Open.

    FDR Pebbles

    Open.

    Goldeneye

    No structural damage; accepting guests Weds. Aug. 22.

    Grand Lido Braco

    Open.

    Green Grotto

    Open.

    Heart Academy

    Minimal damage.

    Hedonism III

    Open.

    Island Village

    Open

    Jamaica Inn

    Open.

    Prospect Plantation

    Open.

    Riu Mammee Bay

    No damage

    Rooms on the Beach

    Open.

    Rooms on the Beach

    Normal.

    Royal Plantation

    Normal.

    Runaway Bay HEART Hotel

    No damage. Open for business.

    Sand Castles

    Open for business.

    Sandals Dunn's River

    No structural damage.

    Sandals Grande Ocho Rios

    No structural damage.

    Sans Souci

    No damage.

    Shaw Park

    No damage.

    Starfish Trelawny

    Open.

    Sunset Jamaica Grande

    Open.



    RESORT AREA: SOUTHCOAST /MANDEVILLE

    Overall Status
    No land phone lines working. Cellular service working as of Tuesday, August 21. In Mandeville, trees down, roof damage to houses. See Table below:

    ACCOMMODATIONS/ ATTRACTIONS

    STATUS REPORTED

    Appleton Estate

    Sustained minimal damage and will be open for business August 23.

    Astra Hotel

    Has reported some water damage.

    Black River Safari

    Tours are open but some buildings are damaged.

    Golf View Hotel

    Has reported some water damage.

    Holland Bamboo

    Damaged & road at Goshen under water with alternate route.

    Jake's

    Will open on September 28.

    Little Ochi

    Open.

    Lovers Leap

    Suffered some damage and is not open.

    Mandeville Hotel

    One block of rooms out as they lost the roof at that block also water damage.

    Pelican Bar

    Open.

    Sandals Whitehouse

    No structural damage.

    Time Square Duty Free Shopping Mall

    Is open for business as usual. Power was restored at about 11:00 a.m. and we have informed the Negril hotel and businesses of our resumption of service to the community.

    Villa Bella

    Has lost a part of their roof and there is damage to the kitchen but the hotel is open for business.

    YS Falls

    Sustained minimal damage, but will be open for business August 22.



    Jake's Resort
    According to Island Outpost President and Jake's Owner, Jason Henzell, “These forces of nature tend to bring out the best in people - my staff and community are incredible. Spirits are high, and our faith is stronger now than ever.” Jake's resort has established a hurricane relief fund through Breds - The Treasure Beach Foundation (USA), which Henzell runs for the less fortunate who have property damage, no insurance, no support system, especially to the sick and elderly. The initiative is also in concert with Treasurebeach.net, a community web site, “The Jamaican spirit is strong, and with that, we know we will prevail all obstacles. Faith is the strongest asset of any nation, and for Jamaicans, it is the gold standard.”

    BREDS, TREASURE BEACH FOUNDATION is a non-profit organization established in 1998 to promote education, sports, cultural heritage, environmental awareness and more recently emergency healthcare in Treasure Beach. The long-term vision for Breds is to establish Treasure Beach as a model for low-density, environmentally friendly, sustainable community in Jamaica. The term “Breds” short for Brethren -- has for generations, been a familiar way of hailing a person from this local fishing community. To make a contribution, please call (876) 965 3000 or visit www.breds.org; info@breds.org.

    RESORT AREA: PORTLAND

    Overall Status
    Minimal damages, trees down and water is still available in some areas. See Table below:

    ACCOMMODATIONS/ ATTRACTIONS

    STATUS REPORTED

    Fern Hill Hotel

    No significant damage to report.

    Jamaica Palace

    Minimal damage.



    RESORT AREA: NEGRIL

    Overall Status
    Minimal damage to properties in region, however loss of foliage. Few utility poles down. West End road was blocked but has since been cleared. Most other areas clear. Road from Orange Hill to Frome mainly intact. See Table below:

    ACCOMMODATIONS/ ATTRACTIONS

    STATUS REPORTED

    Beaches Negril

    No structural damage.

    Beaches Sandy Bay

    No structural damage.

    Couples Negril

    Open.

    Couples Swept Away

    Open.

    Grand Lido Negril

    Open.

    Hedonism II

    Open.

    Idle a While

    No damage.

    Mariners Inn

    No damage.

    Merrills Beach

    No damage.

    Point Village

    No damage.

    Rick’s Cafe

    Slight damage.

    Rock House

    No damage.

    Rondel Village

    Open.

    Riu Negril

    Open.

    Riu Tropical Bay

    Open.

    Sandals Negril

    No structural damage.

    Sunset at the Palms

    No structural damage, will reopen for arrivals on Aug. 21.

    Tensing Pen

    Two villas roofs damaged.

    The Caves

    No structural damage. Open Thurs. Aug. 23.

    White Sands

    No damage.



    Time Square Duty Free Shopping Mall - Is open for business as usual. Power was restored at about 11:00 a.m. and we have informed the Negril hotel and businesses of our resumption of service to the community.

    Hedonism II - Has announced that all systems are operational. The resort sustained minor damages to its foliage and some sections of the main beach were eroded. However there were no structural damages and business will therefore continue as per usual.

    All debris in the main areas of the resort has been cleared as of Monday afternoon and all pools have been cleaned and are presently functional. All Watersports activities and operations will be operational as of tomorrow.

    GOLF COURSE UPDATES

  • Breezes Runaway Bay Golf Course currently in operation

  • Negril Hills Golf Course currently in operation

  • Cinanamon Hill Golf Course currently in operation

  • Half-Moon now fully operational with golf course now open for use by patrons. Also at Half Moon, the hotel is welcoming a group today for a wedding scheduled for this weekend.

  • White Witch Golf Course now in operation

  • Sandals Golf and Country Club now up and running

  • Tryall Golf Course now open


  • In response to the recent Hurricane Dean, Basil Smith Director of Jamaica Tourist Board said, “We currently have recovery teams on the ground surveying the damage. Initial reports show that w e fared reasonably well. The majority of damage suffered was mostly to landscaping and utility poles. Damage to hotels is limited and in general the Hotel sector is in good shape.

    JAMAICAN PARISHES

    Jamaican parishes have been affected in the following ways:

    St. Andrew (east including Kingston)
  • Tree and sign damage

  • Light poles down

  • Some roof damage

  • No serious hotel damage yet reported

  • Road erosion in Helshire


  • St. Ann (central north - including Ocho Rios)
  • Very little rain was experienced. Wind damage still being assessed.

  • Substantial amount of damage to roads.

  • No electricity, but have water.


  • St. James (west including Montego Bay)
  • Very little rain was experienced. Wind damage still being assessed.


  • Hanover (west)
  • Minimal damage


  • St. Thomas (south east)
  • Severe wind damage reported to roofs and landscape

  • Roads blocked

  • Communication has not yet been established with the parish


  • The Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM) is reporting that over the past two days at least 10 initial damage assessment field visits, coordinated by the ODPEM, have been undertaken in the parishes of St Catherine, Clarendon, Manchester, St. Elizabeth and Kingston and St. Andrew. The teams consisted of representatives of donor agencies and were led by ODPEM/local team leaders.

    General observation of damage in all parishes includes:
  • Impassable roads due to fallen trees, downed poles and power lines, and storm surge debris.

  • Absence of regular water supply in several areas.

  • Varying degrees of damage to households.


  • Actions Taken

    The following are some of the actions undertaken by the ODPEM so far:
  • The National Emergency Operations Centre (NEOC) continues to be activated.

  • Resource and Needs lists are constantly being compiled.

  • Periodic parish updates are done to monitor shelters across the island and their status.

  • Three water tanks along with collapsible containers dispatched to Portland Cottage.

  • Monitoring of shelters and feeding of shelterees.

  • Welfare assessment teams have been deployed.

  • Relief distribution carried out to Old Harbour and Clarendon.

  • Continued collation of Damage Assessment data.

  • Parish Emergency Operations Centres (EOCs) have been deactivated in the Southern Region


  • Actions to be Taken

    The ODPEM has identified the following to be done:
  • Continuation of damage assessment activities.

  • Food drops to the cut-off communities of Somerset, Mansfield, Tower Hill, Lime Tree and Spring Bank.

  • Continued attempts to re-establish communication links with affected parishes.

  • Servicing of shelters with water by the National Water Commission (NWC).

  • Arrangement of relief distribution for affected communities in St. Thomas.

  • Relief distribution for open shelters.

  • Establishing of satellite water distribution stations.


  • AIRLINE

    AIRCRAFT TYPE

    FLIGHT NUMBER

    FROM

    TO

    Est. arrival time

    Est. depart time



    Hurricane Dean's wake: updates from Mexico & the Caribbean

    Published on August 25, 2007 4:50 AM | Comments

    Here is a good round up from the LA Times:

    Hurricane Dean moved through the Caribbean and onto Mexico last week. Almost universally, airlines allowed travelers with flights booked during the post-hurricane cleanup period last week to change dates without penalty. Information about specific airlines' policies, deadlines and limitations is available on their websites.


    Hurricane Dean weakens over central Mexico

    Published on August 23, 2007 4:43 AM | Comments

    From the LA Times:

    MEXICO CITY -- Hurricane Dean moved onto Mexico's east coast Wednesday after flattening homes and crops on the Yucatan Peninsula. But the storm appeared to have spared lives as well as the country's signature beach resorts and key oil installations.

    The threat of serious flooding and mudslides remained as the former Category 5 hurricane diminished to a tropical depression, dropping heavy rain on villages along the mountains of the eastern Sierra Madre.



    TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 40

    Published on August 23, 2007 4:34 AM | Comments

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

    THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON DEAN. SURFACE
    OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS
    RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND IS BECOMING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
    THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 17 KNOTS ACROSS MEXICO
    BUT STILL PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS. ANY REMNANT CIRCULATION OF
    THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO.

    THE MID-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD A LITTLE
    FASTER...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN CASE
    REGENERATION OCCURS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

    THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON WHAT WAS ONCE CATEGORY FIVE
    HURRICANE DEAN.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 23/0300Z 20.5N 100.0W 30 KT
    12HR VT 23/1200Z 20.5N 103.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
    24HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED



    TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 40

    Published on August 23, 2007 4:32 AM | Comments

    The NHC is closing the books on Dean with this advisory - this will be the last one issued for Dean.

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1000 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

    ...DEAN WEAKENING OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...

    AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEAN WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.0 WEST OR ABOUT
    95 MILES...150 KM...NORTHWEST OF MEXICO CITY.

    THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH AND THIS
    GENERAL MOTION ACROSS MEXICO IS EXPECEDT TO CONTINUE UNTIL
    DISSIPATION.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. DEAN IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

    DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
    OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
    UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
    FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

    REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...20.5 N...100.0 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

    THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.



    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 37

    Published on August 22, 2007 8:32 AM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 AM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

    REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
    THAT THE CENTRAL CORE OF DEAN COLLAPSED DURING PASSAGE ACROSS THE
    YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS
    HAD EXPANDED TO 55 N MI IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE
    BAND. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION FORMING CLOSE TO THE
    CIRCULATION CENTER...BUT THIS DOES NOT CORRESPOND WITH ANY WIND
    MAXIMUM SEEN BY THE AIRCRAFT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 979
    MB AND THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY
    MICROWAVE RADIOMETER WERE 64 KT. BASED ON THIS AND THE POSSIBILITY
    THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE NOT SAMPLED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
    70 KT.

    THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/17. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH AND
    NORTHEAST OF DEAN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY
    WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 12 HR...AND UNTIL
    EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO.

    UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE FOR
    INTENSIFICATION...WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT
    THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOWING 15-20 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY
    VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE LARGE CORE
    SIZE...SUGGESTS THAT RE-INTENSIFICATION MAY BE SLOWER THAN
    PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR WINDS TO
    INCREASE TO 80 KT BEFORE LANDFALL...WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE MOST OF
    THE GUIDANCE. DEAN SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE BY
    48 HR AT THE LATEST.

    THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY BASED ON AIRCRAFT...
    BUOY...AND QUIKSCAT OBSERVATIONS. THE INCREASED AREA OF HURRICANE
    FORCE WINDS HAS REQUIRED A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE HURRICANE
    WARNING ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 22/0900Z 20.3N 94.8W 70 KT
    12HR VT 22/1800Z 20.9N 97.1W 80 KT
    24HR VT 23/0600Z 21.4N 100.2W 40 KT...INLAND
    36HR VT 23/1800Z 21.8N 103.5W 20 KT...INLAND
    48HR VT 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED



    HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A

    Published on August 22, 2007 8:31 AM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 700 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

    ...DEAN BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...EXPECTED
    TO MAKE LANDFALL LATER TODAY...

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
    MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF CAMPECHE WESTWARD TO LA CRUZ. PREPARATIONS IN
    THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED
    TO COMPLETION.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
    MEXICO FROM NORTH OF LA CRUZ TO BAHIA ALGODONES.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.5 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...
    160 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 120 MILES...
    195 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

    DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
    AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
    HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF DEAN ACROSS THE GULF
    COAST OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
    MILES...325 KM.

    THE LATEST PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
    RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

    STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
    POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...NEAR AND
    TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

    DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
    OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
    UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
    FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

    REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...20.5 N...95.5 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90
    MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
    HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT.



    Hurricane Loses Strength as It Crosses Mexico

    Published on August 21, 2007 5:50 PM | Comments

    From the NY Times:

    CHETUMAL, Mexico, Aug. 21 — Hurricane Dean hammered Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula with blistering winds and heavy rain on Tuesday, missing the prime tourist spots of the Mayan Riviera but causing damage in the provincial capital of Chetumal, before being downgraded from Category 5 down to Category 2.

    Roofs were ripped off homes, streets were flooded, power lines were down and trees were snapped in two as Hurricane Dean, the most powerful Atlantic storm to hit land since 1988 with winds in excess of 165 miles per hour, passed overhead.

    On the road from Felipe Carrillo Puertos, a small town about 100 miles north of Chetumal on the east coast where the storm was originally predicted to come ashore, uprooted trees blocked traffic until federal police officers cleared the way with chainsaws. In towns along the way, people were salvaging belongings and wares from ravaged homes and stores, lugging boxes and goods through sodden roadways. In the town of Limones, a sports center had been crumpled like a piece of paper.

    In Pedro Santos, about 45 miles north of Chetumal, a grocer stared at the cement block walls of his store, missing its tin roof. “ We thought it would stand up pretty well, but it wasn’t the case,” said the grocer, Jacobo Reyes, 32. His mother, Carmen Bustillos, 54, said she could not stand living in a hurricane alley. “I think now we should rebuild in a new place, start all over again,” she said, crying.

    Chetumal clearly took the brunt of the hurricane’s strike on the Yucatán, with streets inundated and debris everywhere. Hundreds of trees lay strewn along major thoroughfares, and thousands were without power and running water. But with no deaths reported, city officials said that they were relieved.



    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 35

    Published on August 21, 2007 5:48 PM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

    DEAN HAS EMERGED INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
    OF 70 KT IS AGAIN BASED ON TYPICAL DECAY RATES...AND HIGHLY
    UNCERTAIN. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
    BE IN THE CYCLONE AROUND 00Z TO ASCERTAIN THE TRUE STRENGTH OF
    DEAN. BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE INNER CORE OF DEAN APPEARS
    TO BE LARGELY INTACT...WITH DEEP CONVECTION DIRECTLY OVER THE
    CENTER. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW RESTRENGTHENING TO BEGIN FAIRLY
    QUICKLY...AND DEAN COULD BE VERY NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY THE
    TIME OF ITS LANDFALL IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST
    APPEARS TO BE OVERLY INFLUENCED BY THE RECENT DECAY AND HAS BEEN
    DISCOUNTED FOR THIS ADVISORY. AFTER LANDFALL...THE SURFACE
    CIRCULATION SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME DISRUPTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
    OF CENTRAL MEXICO...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE FROM DEAN COULD END UP
    WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT
    SEVERAL DAYS.

    THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE 280/17...AND THERE CONTINUES TO
    BE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
    NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO STEER DEAN ON A TRACK
    JUST NORTH OF WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE DIVERGENT THIS
    AFTERNOON...WITH THE UKMET SHOWING A BIT OF JOG TO THE RIGHT JUST
    BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE IS LARGELY
    UNCHANGED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE
    PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 21/2100Z 19.4N 91.3W 70 KT
    12HR VT 22/0600Z 19.8N 93.9W 85 KT
    24HR VT 22/1800Z 20.5N 97.1W 95 KT...INLAND
    36HR VT 23/0600Z 21.0N 100.5W 30 KT...INLAND
    48HR VT 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED



    HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 35

    Published on August 21, 2007 5:47 PM | Comments

    ...DEAN EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...

    HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 400 PM CDT TUE AUG 21 2007

    ...DEAN EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
    FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESO WESTWARD TO TAMPICO. PREPARATIONS IN THE
    WESTERN PORTION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
    COMPLETION.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF TAMPICO TO
    LA PESCA.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.3 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...
    100 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO AND ABOUT 410 MILES...660
    KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

    DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND A
    WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
    HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR
    THE COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
    MILES...220 KM.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

    STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
    POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ALONG
    THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

    DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
    OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...AND GUATEMALA...WITH
    MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
    LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
    OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS.

    REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...19.4 N...91.3 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
    PM CDT.



    The end of Hurricane Dean

    Published on August 21, 2007 12:24 PM | Comments

    Now that Dean is no longer a Caribbean storm, we won't be sending out any more updates on this storm. We will still be posting the NHC watches and warnings, etc. and we will definitely be following the news of Dean and posting as many pictures, videos, stories and links that we can find in the coming days and weeks, but to get that info, you will just have to visit the Caribbean-On-Line Hurricane blog (so bookmark us if you haven't yet!).

    We will resume email alerts when and if another storm threatens the Caribbean region, or if there is any major Caribbean hurricane news. We hope you found the email updates useful. Remember you can take your email address off the list at any time by visiting the site and using the unsubscribe form in the left hand column.

    We would love to hear any feedback you might have - things you may have wanted to see on the site, etc. Please leave us your comments below so we can get an idea if what we are doing is meeting your needs or not. As I said in a previous post, there is a pretty simple and painless sign up with TypeKey and that helps keep the spam out. If you can't hack that - send us an email - webmaster@caribbean-on-line.com

    Thanks -

    Anthony for Caribbean-On-Line



    Category 5 Hurricane Dean Slams Mexico

    Published on August 21, 2007 11:51 AM | Comments

    From the AP:

    Hurricane Dean slammed into the Caribbean coast of Mexico on Tuesday as a roaring Category 5 hurricane, the most intense Atlantic storm to make landfall in two decades. It lashed ancient Mayan ruins and headed for the modern oil installations of the Yucatan Peninsula.

    Dean's path was a stroke of luck for Mexico: It made landfall in a sparsely populated coastline that had already been evacuated, skirting most of the major tourist resorts. It weakened within hours to a Category 2 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph.

    The eye of the storm hit land near Majahual, a port popular with cruise liners, and it was racing across the Yucatan Peninsula toward a Tuesday afternoon entry into the Bay of Campeche, where the state oil company evacuated the oil rigs that produce most of Mexico's oil.

    In the largely Mayan town of Felipe Carrillo Puerto, at one point about 30 miles from the center of the storm, people stared from their porches at broken tree limbs and electrical cables crisscrossing the streets, some of which were flooded with ankle-deep water.

    Tin roofing ripped from houses clunked hollowly as it bounced in the wind whistling through town.

    "We began to feel the strong winds about 2 in the morning and you could hear that the trees were breaking and some tin roofs were coming off," said Miguel Colli, a 36-year-old store employee. "Everyone holed up in their houses. Thank God that the worst is over."



    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 34

    Published on August 21, 2007 11:49 AM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

    AFTER MAKING LANDFALL IN A SPARSELY-POPULATED AREA...DEAN CONTINUES
    TO TRAVERSE THE SPARSELY-POPULATED SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
    PENINSULA. THE EYE HAS FILLED AND CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING. THE
    INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 90 KT BASED ON THE DECAY COMPONENT OF THE
    SHIPS MODEL. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN
    ANOTHER 3 TO 5 HOURS AS A HURRICANE...AND WILL HAVE ABOUT 18 HOURS
    OVER WATER TO REGAIN STRENGTH. SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
    THAT DEAN COULD APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AGAIN...ALTHOUGH
    THE AMOUNT OF RESTRENGTHENING WILL BE HARD TO GAUGE UNTIL WE SEE
    HOW MUCH OF THE INNER CORE OF THE HURRICANE SURVIVES ITS PASSAGE
    OVER LAND.

    THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/17. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
    TRACK FORECASTING THINKING. DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE
    NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-
    NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
    OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN
    BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODEL.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 21/1500Z 19.0N 89.6W 90 KT
    12HR VT 22/0000Z 19.4N 92.2W 85 KT
    24HR VT 22/1200Z 20.0N 95.5W 95 KT
    36HR VT 23/0000Z 20.5N 98.7W 50 KT...INLAND
    48HR VT 23/1200Z 21.0N 101.5W 25 KT...INLAND
    72HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED



    HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34

    Published on August 21, 2007 11:47 AM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1500 UTC TUE AUG 21 2007

    AT 10 AM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE
    WARNING FOR BELIZE TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

    AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
    HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO. A HURRICANE
    WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
    PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO
    CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST
    OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF
    PROGRESO WESTWARD TO TAMPICO. PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
    AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
    TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF TAMPICO TO LA PESCA. A
    TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
    OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO...AND
    FROM NORTH OF TAMPICO TO LA PESCA.

    AT 10 AM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL REMAINING
    WATCHES FOR CUBA.

    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 89.6W AT 21/1500Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
    64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
    50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
    34 KT.......210NE 210SE 75SW 90NW.
    12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 0SW 240NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 89.6W AT 21/1500Z
    AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 88.7W

    FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.4N 92.2W
    MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
    64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
    50 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.
    34 KT...180NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.

    FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 20.0N 95.5W
    MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
    64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
    50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
    34 KT...150NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.

    FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.5N 98.7W...INLAND
    MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 70 KT.
    50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
    34 KT...120NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

    FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.0N 101.5W...INLAND
    MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

    FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 89.6W



    HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 34

    Published on August 21, 2007 11:46 AM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1000 AM CDT TUE AUG 21 2007

    ...DEAN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

    AT 10 AM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE
    WARNING FOR BELIZE TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

    AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
    HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO. A HURRICANE
    WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
    PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO
    CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST
    OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF
    PROGRESO WESTWARD TO TAMPICO. PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
    AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
    TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF TAMPICO TO LA PESCA. A
    TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
    OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO...AND
    FROM NORTH OF TAMPICO TO LA PESCA.

    AT 10 AM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL REMAINING
    WATCHES FOR CUBA.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...
    150 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 85 MILES...140
    KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.

    DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND A
    WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
    TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL REACH THE
    SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A FEW HOURS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    SCALE. ALTHOUGH CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DEAN CROSSES THE
    YUCATAN PENINSULA...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE A HURRICANE WHEN
    IT REACHES THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240
    MILES...390 KM.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

    STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ALONG THE
    EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY. WITHIN THE HURRICANE
    WARNING AREA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO
    8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LARGE AND
    DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

    DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
    OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN
    PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...WITH
    MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
    LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

    REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...19.0 N...89.6 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB.

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
    PM CDT.



    Hurricane Dean's Eye Hits Mexico Coast

    Published on August 21, 2007 7:26 AM | Comments

    From the AP:

    TULUM, Mexico - Hurricane Dean plowed into the Caribbean coast of Mexico on Tuesday as a roaring Category 5 hurricane, heading for the ancient ruins and modern oil installations of the Yucatan Peninsula.

    The eye of the storm made landfall about 4:30 a.m. EDT near Majahual, a popular port with cruise liners located about 40 miles east-northeast of Chetumal and the Belize border, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.

    Dean packed winds near 165 mph and was moving west-northwest near 20 mph across the Yucatan peninsula, on course to reach by Tuesday evening the southern Bay of Campeche, where state oil company Petroleos Mexicanos decided Monday to shut down production on the offshore rigs that extract most of the nation's oil.

    State civil protection official Francisco de la Cruz described battering winds from his hurricane-proof offices in Chetumal just before the eye reached land.

    "There's a lot of noisy wind now with this creature all over us," he said.

    The Chetumal city Web site reported power outages as the hurricane knocked trees down across roadways and sheets of metal flew through the air.

    Dean was the first Category 5 hurricane to make landfall since Hurricane Andrew in 1992 in South Florida, the hurricane center said.

    The hurricane killed at least 12 people across the Caribbean, picked up strength after brushing Jamaica and the Cayman Islands and became a monstrous Category 5 hurricane Monday. Forecasters said Dean was intensifying right up until landfall, feeding off the Caribbean's warm water temperatures.



    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 33

    Published on August 21, 2007 7:15 AM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

    DEAN MADE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
    THE CRUISE SHIP PORT OF COSTA MAYA AROUND 0830 UTC...AND THE EYE IS
    NOW JUST INLAND. OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
    PLANE INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE WAS INTENSIFYING RIGHT UP TO
    LANDFALL. A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 165 KT WAS MEASURED JUST
    NORTH OF THE EYE. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SFMR WERE 124
    KT...BUT IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED
    WAS NOT REPORTED BY THE SFMR INSTRUMENT. A GPS DROPSONDE IN THE
    NORTHERN EYEWALL MEASURED A WIND SPEED OF 178 KT AVERAGED OVER THE
    LOWEST 150 METERS OF THE SOUNDING. BASED ON THE DROPSONDE AND THE
    FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 145 KT. A DROPSONDE
    IN THE EYE MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 906 MB JUST PRIOR TO
    LANDFALL. SOME HISTORIC NOTES ARE IN ORDER HERE. THE 906 MB
    CENTRAL PRESSURE IS THE NINTH LOWEST ON RECORD FOR AN ATLANTIC
    BASIN HURRICANE...AND THE THIRD LOWEST AT LANDFALL BEHIND THE 1935
    LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND HURRICANE GILBERT OF
    1988 IN CANCUN MEXICO. DEAN IS ALSO THE FIRST CATEGORY FIVE
    HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE ANDREW OF
    1992.

    DEAN WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRAVERSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
    THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG THE CENTER REMAINS
    OVER LAND. OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STILL BE
    A BORDERLINE CAT 1/2 HURRICANE WHEN IT EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF
    CAMPECHE...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST.
    ASSUMING THAT THE INNER CORE IS NOT TOO DISRUPTED BY ITS
    INTERACTION WITH LAND...DEAN SHOULD REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS
    BEFORE ITS FINAL LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO.

    INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/17. DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
    NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A
    WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
    THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

    THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
    COASTLINE OF MEXICO.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 21/0900Z 18.7N 87.8W 145 KT
    12HR VT 21/1800Z 19.1N 90.4W 85 KT...INLAND
    24HR VT 22/0600Z 19.6N 93.9W 95 KT...OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE
    36HR VT 22/1800Z 20.1N 96.8W 105 KT...INLAND
    48HR VT 23/0600Z 20.5N 100.0W 25 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING
    72HR VT 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED



    HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33

    Published on August 21, 2007 7:13 AM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 0900 UTC TUE AUG 21 2007

    AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE
    TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING
    FROM WEST OF CHILITEPEC TO VERACRUZ MEXICO.

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF BELIZE
    AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
    FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE
    WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
    PENINSULA AND THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESO
    SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO VERACRUZ. PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE
    WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
    COMPLETION.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
    OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
    PROVINCES OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND ISLA DE LA
    JUVENTUD.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
    MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 87.8W AT 21/0900Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 906 MB
    EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT.
    64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
    50 KT.......100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.
    34 KT.......150NE 150SE 90SW 125NW.
    12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 200SW 300NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 87.8W AT 21/0900Z
    AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 86.9W

    FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.1N 90.4W...INLAND
    MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
    64 KT... 40NE 40SE 15SW 40NW.
    50 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 75NW.
    34 KT...150NE 100SE 60SW 125NW.

    FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.6N 93.9W...OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE
    MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
    64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
    50 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.
    34 KT...150NE 120SE 75SW 125NW.

    FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.1N 96.8W...INLAND
    MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
    64 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
    50 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.
    34 KT...150NE 150SE 75SW 125NW.

    FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.5N 100.0W...INLAND...DISSIPATING
    MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

    FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 87.8W

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z



    HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 33

    Published on August 21, 2007 7:06 AM | Comments

    ...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF
    THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...

    HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 400 AM CDT TUE AUG 21 2007

    ...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF
    THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...

    AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE
    TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING
    FROM WEST OF CHILITEPEC TO VERACRUZ MEXICO.

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF BELIZE
    AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
    FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE
    WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
    PENINSULA AND THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESO
    SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO VERACRUZ. PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE
    WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
    COMPLETION.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
    OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
    PROVINCES OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND ISLA DE LA
    JUVENTUD.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
    MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
    EYE OF DEAN MADE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
    PENINSULA NEAR COSTA MAYA OR MAJAHUAL AROUND 330 AM CDT. THIS
    LOCATION IS ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHETUMAL
    MEXICO

    AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
    JUST INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST OR ABOUT
    35 MILES... 55 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 195
    MILES...315 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.

    DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
    AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
    TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN
    PENINSULA TODAY AND LIKELY REACH THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
    TONIGHT.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    SCALE. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DEAN CROSSES THE
    YUCATAN PENINSULA...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH
    THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
    MILES...280 KM.

    THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
    906 MB...26.75 INCHES...JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.

    STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG
    WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO
    THE NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
    YUCATAN PENINSULA.

    DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
    OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...
    BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
    OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
    FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

    REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...18.7 N...87.8 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165
    MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...906 MB.

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 700 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
    AM CDT.



    Hurricane Dean Slams Into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula

    Published on August 21, 2007 3:17 AM | Comments

    From Bloomberg:

    Aug. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Dean slammed into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula today with ``potentially catastrophic'' winds of 260 kilometers (160 miles) per hour, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said on its Web site.

    The eye of Dean was 160 kilometers east of the city of Chetumal in Mexico at 1 a.m. local time, the Center said in the latest advisory posted on its Web site. The storm was moving west at 32 kilometers an hour. Dean is strong enough to rip off roofs, flood seaside buildings and down trees, shrubs and signs, the center said.

    ``Preparations to protect life and property along the east coast of the Yucutan Peninsula should have already been completed,'' the advisory said.

    Dean was forecast to pass near Chetumal, about 50 kilometers from where the eye is expected to cross land. Mexico closed its biggest Gulf oil platforms and tourists had largely evacuated the beach resorts of Cancun, Cozumel and Playa del Carmen about 390 kilometers to the north of Chetumal."



    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 32

    Published on August 21, 2007 3:07 AM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

    DEAN HAS TAPPED INTO ENERGY PROVIDED BY THE DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE
    NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING...AND HAS REACHED CATEGORY
    FIVE STATUS WITH AN INTENSITY OF 140 KT. DURING THE LAST
    PENETRATION BY THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
    AT 00Z...A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 914 MB WAS MEASURED. THE PEAK
    FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND WAS 162 KT...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 145 KT AT
    THE SURFACE. DUE TO COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS...WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED
    ALL OF THE DROPSONDE AND SFMR DATA IN REAL-TIME. THE ADVISORY
    INTENSITY IS SET TO A POSSIBLY CONSERVATIVE 140 KT...PENDING A MORE
    THOROUGH EXAMINATION OF ALL OF THE AIRCRAFT DATA. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT
    WILL ARRIVE IN THE EYE OF DEAN IN A FEW HOURS...PRIOR TO LANDFALL
    ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE EVOLVING
    SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF DEAN REVEALS AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC
    CONVECTIVE PATTERN...AND A VERY WELL-DEFINED AND GRADUALLY
    CONTRACTING EYE WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 20 N MI. REPORTS FROM THE
    AIRCRAFT...AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY...PROVIDE NO
    INDICATIONS OF ANY INNER-CORE STRUCTURAL CHANGES THAT WOULD LEAD TO
    WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
    ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE
    STATUS DURING ITS ENTIRE STAY OVER YUCATAN...AND IT COULD STILL
    REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BEFORE FINAL
    LANDFALL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

    THE HURRICANE GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
    275/17. A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
    SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH DEAN ROUGHLY ALONG THIS SAME HEADING AND
    SPEED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER MAINLAND
    MEXICO. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH
    IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WELL-ESTABLISHED HEADING...AND TO
    BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...GFS...AND
    NOGAPS MODELS. ALONG THE NEW TRACK...DEAN WILL SPEND A LITTLE LESS
    TIME OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND WILL PASS A LITTLE CLOSER TO
    THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE 24-36
    HOUR PERIOD. AS A RESULT...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
    ISSUED ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 21/0300Z 18.4N 86.0W 140 KT
    12HR VT 21/1200Z 18.7N 88.6W 140 KT...INLAND OVER YUCATAN
    24HR VT 22/0000Z 19.2N 92.1W 85 KT...BAY OF CAMPECHE
    36HR VT 22/1200Z 19.6N 95.6W 95 KT...BAY OF CAMPECHE
    48HR VT 23/0000Z 19.6N 99.1W 30 KT...INLAND OVER MEXICO
    72HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED



    HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32

    Published on August 21, 2007 3:06 AM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 0300 UTC TUE AUG 21 2007

    AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
    HURRICANE WARNING WESTWARD FROM CIUDAD DE CARMEN TO CHILITEPEC. A
    HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF
    BELIZE...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
    FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...AND ALONG THE
    WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO
    SOUTHWARD TO CHILITEPEC. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
    ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY
    BEEN COMPLETED. PREPARATIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
    AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
    WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FROM WEST OF CHILITEPEC WESTWARD TO
    VERACRUZ MEXICO...AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM
    VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
    CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
    HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
    CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
    HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
    OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
    PROVINCES OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND ISLA DE LA
    JUVENTUD.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
    MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 86.0W AT 21/0300Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 914 MB
    EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
    64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
    50 KT.......100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.
    34 KT.......150NE 150SE 90SW 125NW.
    12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 200SW 300NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 86.0W AT 21/0300Z
    AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 85.1W

    FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.7N 88.6W...INLAND OVER YUCATAN
    MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
    64 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 50NW.
    50 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.
    34 KT...150NE 150SE 75SW 125NW.

    FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.2N 92.1W
    MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
    64 KT... 50NE 30SE 25SW 50NW.
    50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
    34 KT...150NE 120SE 75SW 125NW.

    FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.6N 95.6W
    MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
    64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
    50 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.
    34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 125NW.

    FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.6N 99.1W...INLAND MAINLAND MEXICO
    MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

    FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 86.0W



    HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A

    Published on August 21, 2007 3:05 AM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 200 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

    ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE DEAN BEARING DOWN ON THE EAST
    COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF BELIZE
    AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
    FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE
    WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
    PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO CHILITEPEC.
    PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
    THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.
    PREPARATIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE
    RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM
    WEST OF CHILITEPEC WESTWARD TO VERACRUZ MEXICO...AND A HURRICANE
    WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO. A HURRICANE WATCH
    MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
    AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
    THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
    WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
    OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
    PROVINCES OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND ISLA DE LA
    JUVENTUD.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
    MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED BY AN
    AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...
    LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL
    MEXICO AND ABOUT 260 MILES...420 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAMPECHE
    MEXICO.

    DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS
    MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
    TRACK...THE EYE OF DEAN WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
    THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A FEW HOURS. DEAN WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN
    PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND LIKELY REACH THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
    TONIGHT.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. DEAN IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
    ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
    IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST
    AS DEAN CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO
    MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
    MILES...280 KM.

    THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE AIRCRAFT DATA IS
    911 MB...26.90 INCHES.

    DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
    OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...
    BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
    OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
    FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

    STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG
    WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO
    THE NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
    YUCATAN PENINSULA.

    REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...18.5 N...86.8 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    500 AM EDT.



    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 31

    Published on August 20, 2007 5:02 PM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

    COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS ARE PREVENTING THE RECEIPT OF MOST DATA FROM
    THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A
    1930Z VORTEX FIX WAS RECEIVED. AT THAT TIME THE MINIMUM PRESSURE
    WAS 918 MB...WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 151 KT. EARLIER IN
    THE FLIGHT...A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 123 KT WAS OBSERVED. DVORAK
    CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 127 KT AT 18Z. BASED ON
    THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 130 KT. ALL OBJECTIVE
    GUIDANCE SHOWS ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE DEEP WARM WATERS
    OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND DEAN COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE
    STATUS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. A 15Z MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A PARTIAL
    OUTER EYEWALL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO
    INDUCE ANY WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
    HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT TRAVERSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND
    APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH AGAIN BEFORE ITS FINAL LANDFALL.

    THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/17. DEAN IN EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A TRACK
    BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTWARD-
    BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
    HAS TRENDED SOUTH AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED
    SOUTHWARD. ALL THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS TAKE THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY
    OF DEAN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL
    MEXICO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS A LEFTWARD BEND OF THE
    TRACK AFTER FINAL LANDFALL. I DO NOT ACTUALLY EXPECT A WELL-
    DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION TO EXIST AT 72 HOURS...BUT A POINT IS
    PROVIDED SO THAT IT DOESN'T APPEAR THAT THE TRACK ENDS IN THE GULF
    OF MEXICO.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 20/2100Z 18.2N 84.2W 130 KT
    12HR VT 21/0600Z 18.5N 86.7W 140 KT
    24HR VT 21/1800Z 19.3N 90.2W 75 KT...INLAND
    36HR VT 22/0600Z 20.2N 93.6W 85 KT
    48HR VT 22/1800Z 21.0N 97.0W 95 KT
    72HR VT 23/1800Z 21.5N 103.0W 30 KT...INLAND
    96HR VT 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED



    HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31

    Published on August 20, 2007 5:00 PM | Comments

    AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
    TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN TO VERACRUZ.

    HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 2100 UTC MON AUG 20 2007

    AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
    TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN TO VERACRUZ.

    AT 5 PM EDT...ALL WARNINGS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ARE DISCONTINUED.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
    OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. AT 5
    PM EDT...ALL OTHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN CUBA ARE DISCONTINUED.

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF
    BELIZE...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE
    BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
    OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO
    CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
    SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
    FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
    MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 84.2W AT 20/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 918 MB
    EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
    64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
    50 KT....... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
    34 KT.......150NE 150SE 85SW 120NW.
    12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 250SW 300NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 84.2W AT 20/2100Z
    AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 83.2W

    FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.5N 86.7W
    MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
    64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
    50 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
    34 KT...150NE 150SE 85SW 120NW.

    FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.3N 90.2W...INLAND
    MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
    64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
    50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.
    34 KT...150NE 90SE 50SW 150NW.

    FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 20.2N 93.6W
    MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
    64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
    50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
    34 KT...150NE 120SE 75SW 150NW.

    FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.0N 97.0W
    MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
    50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 75NW.
    34 KT...150NE 120SE 50SW 150NW.

    FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.5N 103.0W...INLAND
    MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 84.2W

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z



    HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 31

    Published on August 20, 2007 4:59 PM | Comments

    ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN EXPECTED TO STRIKE THE YUCATAN
    TONIGHT...COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE BEFORE LANDFALL...

    HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

    ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN EXPECTED TO STRIKE THE YUCATAN
    TONIGHT...COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE BEFORE LANDFALL...

    AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
    TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN TO VERACRUZ.

    AT 5 PM EDT...ALL WARNINGS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ARE DISCONTINUED.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
    OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. AT 5
    PM EDT...ALL OTHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN CUBA ARE DISCONTINUED.

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF
    BELIZE...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE
    BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
    OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO
    CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
    SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
    FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
    MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES...
    435 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO.

    DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND AND A
    WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
    HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO
    MAKE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
    HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE
    THIS EVENING.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
    THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATER
    TODAY...AND DEAN IS LIKELY TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
    PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
    MILES...280 KM.

    THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
    RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 918 MB...27.11 INCHES.

    DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
    OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN
    HONDURAS...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE
    RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

    COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
    LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
    POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18
    FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
    WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
    PENINSULA.

    REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...18.2 N...84.2 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB.

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
    PM EDT.



    Martinique Tourism Industry Withstands Hurricane Dean

    Published on August 20, 2007 3:58 PM | Comments

    NEW YORK-(Business Wire)-August 20, 2007 - Martinique's tourism industry remains intact following the passing of Hurricane Dean. The international airport - Martinique Aime Cesaire International Airport - re-opened at 12:00 p.m. on Saturday, August 18, while the island's hotel infrastructure emerged virtually unscathed with only minor cosmetic damages reported to buildings. Hotel landscaping was impacted more extensively, though none of the island's 160 hotels and resorts will close due to the storm.


    St. Lucia 'open for business' after Hurricane Dean

    Published on August 20, 2007 3:56 PM | Comments

    Good news coming out of the Lesser Antilles already:

    The Caribbean island of St Lucia is 'open for business' following the passing of Hurricane Dean which is set to reach the Cayman Islands today and Mexico tonight.

    Hurricane Dean passed St Lucia as a Category 2 storm, though has since grown to a Category 4, and may even reach the maximum force, Category 5, before it reaches Mexico.

    Airports in the north and south of St Lucia are have reopened, roads hit by landslides have been cleared and electricity has been restored to the island.

    Hotels also reported no significant damage to their properties, though they have been spending the weekend cleaning-up after the storm.

    "We're thankful that the island is back to full operational capacity, due in part to the spirit of the St. Lucian people and the fact that the hurricane passed the island in its early stages," said Maria Fowell, St Lucia director of tourism.



    HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A

    Published on August 20, 2007 3:51 PM | Comments

    This is the supplemental advisory from the NHC.

    HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 200 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

    ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE
    YUCATAN PENINSULA...

    AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED
    THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA.

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF
    BELIZE...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE
    BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
    OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO
    CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
    SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
    FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
    CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
    GUANTANAMO.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
    OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
    SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
    MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR ABOUT 330
    MILES...530 KM...EAST OF BELIZE CITY.

    DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND A
    WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
    HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO
    MAKE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
    HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE
    WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND DEAN IS
    LIKELY TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE PRIOR TO MAKING
    LANDFALL.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
    MILES...335 KM.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 924 MB...27.29 INCHES.

    COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
    LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
    POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18
    FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
    WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
    PENINSULA.

    DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
    INCHES OVER JAMAICA WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF UP TO 20 INCHES.
    STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
    YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...
    WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
    6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND NICARAGUA. THESE
    RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

    REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...18.0 N...83.2 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
    HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.



    Martinique Photos

    Published on August 20, 2007 12:12 PM | Comments

    A flickr user named virekuk has a set of photos up showing the damage on Martinique - you can clearly see that the banana crop got wiped out:

    1163818705_e6c466161c.jpg



    Hurricane Dean: Readers' updates

    Published on August 20, 2007 12:06 PM | Comments

    Some comments from BBC website users:

    Hurricane Dean has just bulldozed the place and left. The devastation is horrible but manageable. I just came out of my house to look up the road, and there was a big tree that had fallen in the middle of the road. The gutters are overflowing with debris and people are just walking around outside, looking around in wonder, raking up leaves, moving branches and debris out of the roads and trying to get their lives back to normal. It's amazing that another storm changed its course just when it was about to slam into us.

    Ruth Howard, Kingston, Jamaica

    "horrible but manageable" is a pretty accurate quote for Jamaica it seems. No one died in Jamaica due to the storm (according to current news accounts), but there is plenty to clean up and rebuild no doubt.



    UK tourists escape Hurricane Dean

    Published on August 20, 2007 12:04 PM | Comments

    From the Guardian, some news for our UK readers:

    Thousand of British holidaymakers in Jamaica appear to have escaped the worst of Hurricane Dean, with the storm passing further south than initially feared.

    With the island's main airports closed, tourists on Sunday had little choice than to seek shelter in resorts with "hurricane-proof walls" - schools, churches and indoor sports arenas - and hope for the best.

    But with the storm's path passing south of Jamaica, early reports indicate that while the main holiday resorts experienced heavy winds and rain, there were no reports of any injury to British visitors.

    The more southerly direction of Hurricane Dean now expected may also mean that the main holiday areas of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula are likely to miss the worst of the storm in the coming days.

    But focus is now being drawn towards the Cayman Islands where tourists have been evacuated and a curfew imposed.

    The hurricane is expected to pass to the south of the British territory later on Monday, but the Government said it still posed a "significant threat" to the islands.

    Cayman Islands Governor Stuart Jack said all but 1,500 tourists had been moved out by yesterday afternoon and 19 storm shelters had been set up for anyone without a safe place to go.



    Hurricane Dean Photo Gallery

    Published on August 20, 2007 11:52 AM | Comments

    Some pretty good photos from various islands on from the Herald Sun (Australia) website:

    0%2C%2C5617864%2C00.jpg


    Hurricane Dean kills 3 people in Haiti

    Published on August 20, 2007 11:48 AM | Comments

    From Itar-Tass:

    HAVANA, August 20 (Itar-Tass) -- Three people died and another four are missing in Haiti as a result of floods and strong winds triggered by Hurricane Dean. The natural disaster inflicted considerable damages to agriculture, rapid water flows destroyed several houses and damaged greatly some highways, Haiti’s authorities said on Sunday.


    Yucatan Peninsula Awaits Strengthening Hurricane

    Published on August 20, 2007 11:46 AM | Comments

    From the Washington Post:

    KINGSTON, Jamaica, Aug. 20 -- Hurricane Dean swirled across open water Monday, gaining strength as it whipped south of the Cayman Islands and headed toward Mexico's Yucatan Pensinsula after pounding Jamaica with heavy rain and wind.

    Dean pelted the Cayman Islands, which are British territory, with strong wind and rain, but appears to have spared the resort haven from the worst of its fury, according to early reports from the islands. Cayman Islands Gov. Stuart Jack told reporters that all but 1,500 tourists in the territory have been evacuated.

    Jamaica had been tensing for a cataclysmic storm--some Internet sites dubbed Dean "Hell Storm Jamaica" before its arrival--but the large eye of the hurricane passed south of the island and no deaths have been reported.



    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 30

    Published on August 20, 2007 11:41 AM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

    THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT WILL BE AT 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE
    MEANTIME...RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A SINGLE EYEWALL THAT HAS
    BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITH COLDER TOPS IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE
    IMAGERY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL
    BE HELD AT 130 KT...BUT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEAN
    IS APPROACHING CATEGORY FIVE STATUS...AND IT IS EXPECTED REACH THAT
    THRESHOLD LATER TODAY OVER THE DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN
    CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE
    YUCATAN...DEAN SHOULD RETAIN HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE CROSSING
    AND A HURRICANE WARNING IS THEREFORE REQUIRED FOR THE WESTERN COAST
    OF THE YUCATAN AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICIT IN THE OFFICIAL
    FORECAST BELOW...DEAN COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE AGAIN BEFORE ITS
    FINAL LANDFALL.

    THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/18. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
    TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING...MODEL GUIDANCE...OR OFFICIAL
    FORECAST. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A TRACK BETWEEN WEST AND
    WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
    WESTWARD-BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY
    CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITHIN A VERY NARROW GUIDANCE
    ENVELOPE.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 20/1500Z 17.9N 82.4W 130 KT
    12HR VT 21/0000Z 18.2N 85.1W 140 KT
    24HR VT 21/1200Z 19.0N 88.6W 100 KT...INLAND
    36HR VT 22/0000Z 19.9N 92.2W 80 KT
    48HR VT 22/1200Z 21.0N 95.5W 95 KT
    72HR VT 23/1200Z 22.5N 102.0W 35 KT...INLAND
    96HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED



    HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30

    Published on August 20, 2007 11:39 AM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1500 UTC MON AUG 20 2007

    AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
    HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
    SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE
    WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
    WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
    AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE
    WARNING SOUTHWARD FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE BORDER WITH GUATEMALA. A
    HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF BELIZE.

    AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
    WARNING FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.

    AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE
    WARNING FOR JAMAICA WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL
    STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
    YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE NORTHWARD
    TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
    CAYMAN ISLANDS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
    CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
    GUANTANAMO.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
    OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
    SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
    OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 82.4W AT 20/1500Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 MB
    EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
    64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
    50 KT....... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
    34 KT.......180NE 150SE 85SW 120NW.
    12 FT SEAS..300NE 350SE 275SW 300NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 82.4W AT 20/1500Z
    AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 81.5W

    FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.2N 85.1W
    MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
    64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
    50 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
    34 KT...180NE 150SE 85SW 120NW.

    FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.0N 88.6W...INLAND
    MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
    64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
    50 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 60NW.
    34 KT...180NE 150SE 50SW 150NW.

    FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.9N 92.2W
    MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
    64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
    50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
    34 KT...180NE 120SE 75SW 150NW.

    FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.0N 95.5W
    MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
    50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.
    34 KT...180NE 120SE 75SW 150NW.

    FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.5N 102.0W...INLAND
    MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
    34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 82.4W



    HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 30

    Published on August 20, 2007 11:38 AM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

    ...DEAN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE LATER TODAY...

    AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
    HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
    SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE
    WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
    WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
    AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE
    WARNING SOUTHWARD FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE BORDER WITH GUATEMALA. A
    HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF BELIZE.

    AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
    WARNING FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.

    AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE
    WARNING FOR JAMAICA WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL
    STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
    YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE NORTHWARD
    TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
    CAYMAN ISLANDS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
    CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
    GUANTANAMO.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
    OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
    SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
    OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.4 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES...
    200 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 385 MILES...615 KM...
    EAST OF BELIZE CITY.

    DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND A
    WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
    HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO
    MAKE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
    HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE
    WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND DEAN IS
    LIKELY TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE PRIOR TO MAKING
    LANDFALL.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
    MILES...335 KM.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 925 MB...27.32 INCHES.

    COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
    LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
    POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18
    FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
    WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
    PENINSULA.

    DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
    INCHES OVER JAMAICA WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF UP TO 20 INCHES.
    STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
    YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...
    WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
    6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND NICARAGUA. THESE
    RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

    REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...17.9 N...82.4 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB.

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
    PM EDT.



    HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A

    Published on August 20, 2007 8:13 AM | Comments

    ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN HEADED FOR THE YUCATAN
    PENINSULA...

    HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 800 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

    ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN HEADED FOR THE YUCATAN
    PENINSULA...

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE
    EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM BELIZE CITY
    NORTHWARD TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
    JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA
    WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. A HURRICANE
    WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
    WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
    LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS
    OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.
    A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
    WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
    CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
    GUANTANAMO.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
    BELIZE FROM SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA
    BORDER.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
    OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
    SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
    OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST OR ABOUT 440
    MILES...710 KM...EAST OF BELIZE CITY.

    DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND A
    WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
    HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE
    VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
    THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH CATEGORY
    FIVE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
    MILES...335 KM. GRAND CAYMAN REPORTED WIND GUSTS

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 926 MB...27.34 INCHES.

    COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
    LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
    POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 11
    FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
    WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
    PENINSULA.

    STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
    JAMAICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
    INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
    ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
    INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE
    RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

    REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...17.8 N...81.5 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    1100 AM EDT.



    Hurricane Dean Satellite image from the US Navy

    Published on August 20, 2007 8:08 AM | Comments

    http://www.caribbean-on-line.com/hurricanes/images/20070820.1115.goes12.x.ir1km_bw.04LDEAN.130kts-926mb-176N-798W.100pc-thumb.jpg

    US Navy Dean page - good images and track map here.



    Hurrican Dean Infrared Image

    Published on August 20, 2007 8:00 AM | Comments

    From the University Of Wisconsin (GOES East):



    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 29

    Published on August 20, 2007 5:25 AM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

    OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LAST AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION AGAIN
    INDICATED A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL STRUCTURE. THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL
    WIND SPEED WAS 145 KT WITH AN SFMR SURFACE WIND MEASUREMENT OF 125
    KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. A GPS DROPSONDE MEASURED A SURFACE
    WIND SPEED OF 133 KT IN THE SAME QUADRANT...BUT BASED ON
    LOWER-LAYER AVERAGES FROM THE SONDE...THIS PROBABLY DOES NOT QUITE
    CORRESPOND TO A 1-MINUTE AVERAGE SURFACE WIND. BASED ON ALL OF
    THESE DATA THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 130 KT. DEAN IS MOVING
    OVER WATERS OF EXTREMELY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT WITH WEAK SHEAR
    AND EXHIBITS A CLASSIC UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN. DEAN
    CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN INTO A CATEGORY FIVE
    HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
    OFFICIAL FORECAST. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE TRANSIT OVER THE
    YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ROUGHLY FOLLOWS THE
    INLAND DECAY SHIPS MODEL. DEAN IS FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN OVER THE
    BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND THE GFDL AND HWRF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT IT
    COULD REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE MAKING ITS FINAL
    LANDFALL. THIS IS NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BUT
    ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN THE 48-HOUR
    FORECAST AND LANDFALL.

    AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS OR SO GIVE
    ESSENTIALLY A DUE WESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD
    SPEED...270/18. AS A MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE CONTINUES
    MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE FLOW TO THE
    SOUTH OF A STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
    SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR DEAN.
    THEREFORE...A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY FOR
    THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
    THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE GFDL...U.K.
    MET...NOGAPS...AND GFS CONSENSUS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE TRACKS.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 20/0900Z 17.7N 80.7W 130 KT
    12HR VT 20/1800Z 18.1N 83.5W 135 KT
    24HR VT 21/0600Z 18.8N 87.0W 140 KT
    36HR VT 21/1800Z 19.6N 90.5W 75 KT...INLAND
    48HR VT 22/0600Z 20.5N 94.0W 90 KT...BAY OF CAMPECHE
    72HR VT 23/0600Z 22.0N 100.5W 30 KT...INLAND
    96HR VT 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED



    HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29

    Published on August 20, 2007 5:24 AM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 0900 UTC MON AUG 20 2007

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE
    EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM BELIZE CITY
    NORTHWARD TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
    JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA
    WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. A HURRICANE
    WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
    WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
    LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS
    OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.
    A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
    WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
    CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
    GUANTANAMO.

    AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE
    TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF
    THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE
    BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
    OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
    SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
    OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 80.7W AT 20/0900Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 926 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
    64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
    50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.
    34 KT.......180NE 150SE 75SW 120NW.
    12 FT SEAS..350NE 350SE 275SW 275NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 80.7W AT 20/0900Z
    AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 79.8W

    FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.1N 83.5W
    MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
    64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
    50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.
    34 KT...180NE 150SE 75SW 120NW.

    FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.8N 87.0W
    MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
    64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
    50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.
    34 KT...180NE 150SE 75SW 120NW.

    FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.6N 90.5W...INLAND
    MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
    64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
    50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
    34 KT...180NE 75SE 60SW 150NW.

    FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 20.5N 94.0W...BAY OF CAMPECHE
    MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
    50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.
    34 KT...180NE 120SE 75SW 150NW.

    FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.0N 100.5W...INLAND
    MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 80.7W

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z



    HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 29

    Published on August 20, 2007 5:23 AM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

    ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DEAN MOVING SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN
    ISLANDS...HEADED FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE
    EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM BELIZE CITY
    NORTHWARD TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
    JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA
    WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. A HURRICANE
    WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
    WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
    LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS
    OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.
    A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
    WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
    CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
    GUANTANAMO.

    AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE
    TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF
    THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE
    BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
    OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
    SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
    OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...
    185 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 495 MILES...795
    KM...EAST OF BELIZE CITY.

    DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND A
    WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
    HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE
    APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
    THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH CATEGORY
    FIVE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
    MILES...335 KM.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 926 MB...27.34 INCHES.

    COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
    LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
    POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES IN
    JAMAICA ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9
    TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE
    NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
    YUCATAN PENINSULA.

    STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
    JAMAICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
    INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
    ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
    INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE
    RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

    REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...17.7 N...80.7 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB.

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
    AM EDT.



    JAMAICA OFFICE OF DISASTER PREPAREDNESS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

    Published on August 20, 2007 4:36 AM | Comments

    The Jamaica ODPEM press release web page:

    http://odpem.org.jm/infopage.htm



    Miami Herald blog

    Published on August 20, 2007 4:31 AM | Comments

    The Miami Herald had a "Storm Reports" blog and it is actually pretty good.



    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 28

    Published on August 20, 2007 4:20 AM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

    THE EYE OF DEAN HAS BEEN PASSING JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA SINCE ABOUT
    1900 UTC AND HAS JUST CROSSED THE LONGITUDE OF NEGRIL ON THE
    WESTERN END OF THE ISLAND. THE CENTER CAME WITHIN ABOUT 20 N MI OF
    PORTLAND POINT ON THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST...CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING
    HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO KINGSTON. WHILE PASSING BY JAMAICA...
    SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THE EYE DIAMETER WAS GRADUALLY
    SHRINKING. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARRIVED IN THE
    EYE OF DEAN AT 0130 UTC AND REVEALED THAT THE PRESSURE HAD FALLEN
    TO NEAR 925 MB...AND THAT DEAN NOW HAS A SINGLE EYEWALL AT A
    DIAMETER OF ABOUT 15 N MI. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SFMR
    HAVE BEEN 121 KT...AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 143
    KT...BOTH OF WHICH SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT
    125 KT.

    DEAN IS HEADING TOWARD 280 DEGREES AT ABOUT 17 KT WITH STEERING
    PROVIDED BY A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
    UNITED STATES. THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL GET EVEN
    STRONGER AND MOVE A LITTLE WESTWARD WITH DEAN...MEANING THAT DEAN
    WILL PROBABLY MOVE IN A RATHER STRAIGHT LINE UNTIL FINAL LANDFALL
    IN MEXICO. OVERALL THE MODELS HAVE AGAIN EDGED A LITTLE
    SOUTHWARD...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NOAA
    GULFSTREAM-IV JET CONDUCTED A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION THIS
    EVENING TO PROVIDE DATA FOR THE 0000 UTC MODEL CYCLE. THE JET WILL
    CONTINUE TO FLY MISSIONS EVERY 12 HOURS TO COLLECT DATA THROUGH THE
    12Z MODEL CYCLE TUESDAY MORNING.

    ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING IN THE
    NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WHERE THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK AND THE
    OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VERY HIGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT
    AND INDICATES THAT DEAN COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE STATUS DURING THE
    NEXT DAY OR SO. THE HURRICANE WILL WEAKEN WHILE OVER YUCATAN IN
    PROPORTION TO JUST HOW LONG IT SPENDS OVER LAND. THE OPPORTUNITY
    FOR RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF LIKEWISE DEPENDS ON
    THE EXACT TRACK...AND THAT WINDOW HAS BEEN SHORTENING WITH THE
    SOUTHWARD SHIFTS IN TRACK. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATED IN
    THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST...IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT DEAN COULD
    RESTRENGTHEN AND AGAIN REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO FINAL
    LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 20/0300Z 17.6N 78.8W 125 KT
    12HR VT 20/1200Z 18.0N 81.4W 130 KT
    24HR VT 21/0000Z 18.5N 84.9W 140 KT
    36HR VT 21/1200Z 19.2N 88.4W 105 KT...INLAND
    48HR VT 22/0000Z 19.8N 91.9W 80 KT
    72HR VT 23/0000Z 21.0N 99.0W 55 KT...INLAND
    96HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED



    ...DEAN MOVING AWAY FROM JAMAICA...COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE

    Published on August 20, 2007 4:14 AM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 200 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

    ...DEAN MOVING AWAY FROM JAMAICA...COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE
    HURRICANE TODAY...

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE
    EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM BELIZE CITY
    NORTHWARD TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
    JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
    HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
    THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
    SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS
    OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.
    A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
    WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    AT 2 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI IS
    DISCONTINUED.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
    CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
    GUANTANAMO.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
    OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
    SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
    COAST OF BELIZE FROM SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE
    BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
    OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES...
    240 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

    DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS
    GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
    ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN
    ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING.

    REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
    THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240
    KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY
    FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. DEAN COULD
    REACH CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH TODAY.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
    MILES...335 KM.

    AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
    CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 926 MB...27.34 INCHES.

    COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
    LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
    POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREAS
    IN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES
    IN JAMAICA SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. COASTAL STORM SURGE
    FLOODING OF 9 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR
    AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST
    OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

    STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
    JAMAICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
    INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
    ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
    INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HAITI. EASTERN CUBA COULD
    RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7
    INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
    MUDSLIDES.

    REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...17.7 N...79.7 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    500 AM EDT.



    At least 4 more deaths attributed to Dean

    Published on August 20, 2007 4:10 AM | Comments

    This quote is at the very end of a NY Times (AP) article:

    "The hurricane created massive waves and surges up to 20 feet high as it passed the Dominican Republic on Saturday, flooding roads and drowning a boy. At least two people were killed and about 150 homes were destroyed in Haiti, emergency officials said."

    So that is at least 7 confirmed deaths due to Dean, although the article mentions eight.



    Jamaica Gleaner, other Jamaica resources

    Published on August 19, 2007 5:33 PM | Comments

    If you are looking for news out of Jamaica the Jamaica Gleaner is a good place to start. There is also this blog from Go-Jamaica, and Power 106 FM Radio.



    Jamaica Braces for Direct Hit by Hurricane

    Published on August 19, 2007 5:29 PM | Comments

    From the NY Times:

    Jamaican authorities issued mandatory evacuation orders in some vulnerable coastal communities, but not all Jamaicans were heading to the 1,000 shelters set up in schools, churches and sporting arenas across the island.

    In some flood-prone communities on the island’s southeastern coast, residents said they were going to ride out the hurricane at home because the awful conditions they encountered in the shelters during the 2004 hurricane. “Me not moving,” said a woman who shares a simple wooden house with 13 relatives, according to The Jamaica Observer.

    “If the ship goes down, we’ll go down with the ship,” said Oran Hall, 32, a grocery store owner from the fishing town of Port Royal near Kingston, one of many areas that in the past has refused evacuation orders. The shelters are so horrid, he said, that “people would prefer to die in their homes.”

    Tourists in Jamaica and throughout the Caribbean crowded into airports on Saturday to fly out before the storm. Additional flights were scheduled. Cayman Airways added 15 to Miami, which were quickly sold out. But not everybody could escape.



    Hurricane destroys Martinique, Guadeloupe bananas

    Published on August 19, 2007 5:13 PM | Comments

    From Reuters:

    PARIS -- Hurricane Dean has destroyed all of Martinique's banana crop and 80 percent of the plantations in the nearby Caribbean island of Guadeloupe, the head of the banana producers union said on Saturday.

    Eric de Lucy, president of the banana producers union for the two French islands, estimated the cost of the damage to be between 100 and 120 million euros ($134.5 to $161.4 million) and said he would be asking the French government for help.

    "There are considerable economic consequences for this sector because there is not a single banana plant left standing in Martinique and more than 80 percent of the banana plantations in Guadeloupe are affected," he told France Info radio.



    Powerful Hurricane Dean menaces Jamaica

    Published on August 19, 2007 5:02 PM | Comments

    From Reuters:

    KINGSTON (Reuters) - Jamaica declared a curfew and troops patrolled the streets on Sunday as fiercely powerful Hurricane Dean bore down on the island after killing five people earlier on its run through the Caribbean.

    Tempers flared in shops where Jamaicans scrambled for last-minute emergency supplies as Dean began to lash the mountainous island with heavy rain. The government opened shelters and urged residents of low-lying areas to evacuate.

    The hurricane was an "extremely dangerous" Category 4 storm, the second-highest on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale, and could strengthen into a rare and potentially catastrophic Category 5 near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.



    5 PM EST Updates, August 19

    Published on August 19, 2007 4:59 PM | Comments

    The 5 PM EST NHC updates are posted. At 5 PM the eye of Hurricane Dean is just south of the coast of Jamaica, and the whole island is in the swath of the storm. The track is still a little further south, eventually over the Yucatan peninsula, and possible as a Category 5 storm.



    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 27

    Published on August 19, 2007 4:57 PM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

    THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT COMPLETED ITS MISSION...FINDING PEAK
    FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 144 KT...WITH PEAK SFMR WINDS OF 121 KT. ONE
    OF THE LAST EYEWALL DROPSONDES GAVE A SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 118 KT
    DERIVED FROM THE LOWEST 150 METERS OF THE SOUNDING. IN SPITE OF A
    GRADUAL PRESSURE RISE...THESE DATA INDICATE THAT 125 KT IS STILL A
    GOOD INTENSITY ESTIMATE. CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS ARE APPARENT IN
    MICROWAVE...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE...AND AIRCRAFT DATA...WITH THE
    STRONGEST WINDS NOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER EYEWALL. SHORT-TERM
    INTENSITY CHANGES WILL BE GOVERNED BY INNER-CORE PROCESSES THAT ARE
    DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
    WOULD FAVOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...AND DEAN COULD VERY WELL
    BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

    THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/17. THERE IS NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE
    FORECAST THINKING...ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING
    SOUTHWARD...WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS BUILDING THE
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH DEAN. THE UPPER LOW IN
    THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES WESTWARD AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
    MAJOR PLAYER IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL
    FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH...BUT STILL LIES TO
    THE NORTH OF ALL THE MAJOR MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE HWRF. ALTHOUGH I
    CANNOT EXPLAIN WHY...THE DETERMINISTIC RUN OF THE GFS IS ALONG THE
    SOUTHERN END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE
    MEMBERS ARE ALMOST UNIFORMLY ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE. BECAUSE MOST
    OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS LIE TO THE SOUTH OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...
    SOME ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK ARE POSSIBLE.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 19/2100Z 17.3N 76.8W 125 KT
    12HR VT 20/0600Z 17.8N 79.4W 130 KT
    24HR VT 20/1800Z 18.4N 83.0W 135 KT
    36HR VT 21/0600Z 19.0N 86.5W 140 KT
    48HR VT 21/1800Z 19.9N 90.0W 80 KT...INLAND
    72HR VT 22/1800Z 21.5N 96.5W 100 KT
    96HR VT 23/1800Z 23.0N 101.0W 35 KT...INLAND
    120HR VT 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED



    HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27

    Published on August 19, 2007 4:55 PM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 2100 UTC SUN AUG 19 2007

    AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
    TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM DANGRIEGA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
    MEXICO.

    AT 5 PM EDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
    PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
    REPUBLIC BORDER IS REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

    AT 5 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE
    NORTHWARD IS DISCONTINUED.

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
    ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN JAMAICA
    SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. PREPARATIONS IN THE CAYMAN
    ISLANDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CHETUMAL TO SAN FELIPE ON
    THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD ALSO
    SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN BELIZE...AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN BELIZE.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
    CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
    GUANTANAMO.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
    OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
    SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
    BELIZE...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
    PROGRESS OF DEAN.


    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 76.8W AT 19/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 MB
    EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
    64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
    50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
    34 KT.......180NE 150SE 75SW 120NW.
    12 FT SEAS..480NE 420SE 240SW 180NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 76.8W AT 19/2100Z
    AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 76.0W

    FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.8N 79.4W
    MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
    64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
    50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
    34 KT...180NE 150SE 75SW 120NW.

    FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.4N 83.0W
    MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
    64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
    50 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 90NW.
    34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

    FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.0N 86.5W
    MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
    64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
    50 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 90NW.
    34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

    FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.9N 90.0W...INLAND
    MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
    50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
    34 KT...180NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

    FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.5N 96.5W
    MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
    50 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.
    34 KT...180NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 23.0N 101.0W...INLAND
    MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

    OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 76.8W

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z



    HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 27

    Published on August 19, 2007 4:54 PM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

    ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DEAN SCRAPING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
    JAMAICA...

    AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
    TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM DANGRIEGA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
    MEXICO.

    AT 5 PM EDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
    PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
    REPUBLIC BORDER IS REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

    AT 5 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE
    NORTHWARD IS DISCONTINUED.

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
    ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN JAMAICA
    SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. PREPARATIONS IN THE CAYMAN
    ISLANDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CHETUMAL TO SAN FELIPE ON
    THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD ALSO
    SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN BELIZE...AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN BELIZE.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
    CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
    GUANTANAMO.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
    OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
    SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...
    80 KM...SOUTH OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 320 MILES...515 KM...
    EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

    DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A MOTION
    BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
    ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE PASSING ALONG OR
    JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAMAICA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
    HOURS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND
    ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEAN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
    BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
    TOMORROW.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
    MILES...335 KM.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

    COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
    LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
    POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

    STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
    JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
    8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
    CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
    OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES.
    EASTERN CUBA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM
    AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
    FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

    REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...17.3 N...76.8 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
    PM EDT.



    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 26

    Published on August 19, 2007 1:00 PM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

    THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF
    142 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE CURRENT
    ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 125 KT. CENTRAL PRESSURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
    RISING...THE EYE DIAMETER HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12
    HOURS...AND THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
    STRUCTURE. IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE COULD BE SOME BROADENING OF
    THE WIND FIELD WITH FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH AS THE CORE OF DEAN
    APPROACHES JAMAICA...BUT FURTHER STRENGTHENING OVER THE DEEP WARM
    WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED.

    THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THE
    INITIAL MOTION IS 280/16...WITH SOME EMBEDDED WOBBLES. AS
    THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
    CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD AHEAD OF DEAN...THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE
    HURRICANE WILL BE CONTROLLED LARGELY BY A DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
    SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
    STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED
    WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE
    OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
    ADVISORY.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 19/1500Z 17.0N 75.1W 125 KT
    12HR VT 20/0000Z 17.5N 77.7W 125 KT
    24HR VT 20/1200Z 18.3N 81.2W 130 KT
    36HR VT 21/0000Z 19.0N 84.5W 140 KT
    48HR VT 21/1200Z 19.9N 88.2W 120 KT...INLAND
    72HR VT 22/1200Z 21.5N 95.0W 100 KT
    96HR VT 23/1200Z 23.0N 100.0W 40 KT...INLAND
    120HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED



    HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 26

    Published on August 19, 2007 12:58 PM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

    ...OUTER BANDS OF DEAN MOVING OVER JAMAICA...

    AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
    HURRICANE WATCH FROM CHETUMAL TO SAN FELIPE ON THE YUCATAN
    PENINSULA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
    WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND LA HABANA. A TROPICAL
    STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES...PINAR
    DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...
    CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
    OF HAITI FROM WEST OF THE HAITI-DOMINICAN BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
    A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
    ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
    TO COMPLETION.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH
    OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
    CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
    GUANTANAMO.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
    MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.1 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...
    210 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 215 MILES...
    345 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

    DEAN IS MOVING WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A MOTION BETWEEN WEST
    AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
    FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE VERY NEAR THE ISLAND OF
    JAMAICA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND
    ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
    MILES...335 KM.

    THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
    UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 926 MB...27.34 INCHES.

    COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
    LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
    POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

    STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
    JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
    8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
    CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
    OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES.
    EASTERN CUBA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM
    AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
    FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

    REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...17.0 N...75.1 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB.

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
    PM EDT.



    Hurricane Dean photos on Flickr

    Published on August 19, 2007 5:32 AM | Comments

    There are some good photos on Flickr for Hurricane Dean:

    1161444510_c0e94f5de7.jpg


    Hurricane Dean 5 AM EST Update, August 19

    Published on August 19, 2007 5:17 AM | Comments

    The 5 AM updates are out from the NHC and here is our reading: Dean is a major hurricane, and while it is showing some wobbling and a little internal disorganization, it could and probably will become stronger and continue on a general track very close to Jamaica. Hurricane Warnings are up for Jamaica and The Cayman Islands.

    We also have a new section up for Hurricane Dean video.



    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 25

    Published on August 19, 2007 5:12 AM | Comments

    "IT IS IMPERATIVE NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
    CONSIDERING THE MARGIN OF ERROR OF NHC PREDICTIONS...THE CORE OF
    THIS LARGE HURRICANE COULD EASILY BE 30-50 N MI ON EITHER SIDE OF
    THE FORECAST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO."

    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

    THE LAST PENETRATION OF THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE BY THE AIR FORCE
    HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS AT 0511 UTC. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM
    PRESSURE OF 921 MB BY DROPSONDE AND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 130
    KT OUTBOUND IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
    LESS DISTINCT EYE WITH SOME WARMING OF THE SURROUNDING CLOUD
    TOPS...ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH GOOD
    SYMMETRY AND STRONG OUTFLOW OVER ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL
    INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 125 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH MAY
    BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE. IF INDEED DEAN HAS WEAKENED...THIS
    IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF INNER CORE PROCESSES...AND IS PROBABLY ONLY
    A SHORT-TERM CHANGE. THE LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
    ENVIRONMENT STILL APPEAR TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...
    SO....ASIDE FROM INNER-CORE-RELATED FLUCTUATIONS...DEAN HAS THE
    POTENTIAL TO ATTAIN CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE
    NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFDL...
    SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSSE GUIDANCE. INTERACTION WITH THE YUCATAN
    PENINSULA WILL CAUSE WEAKENING...AND THE AMOUNT OF RE-STRENGTHENING
    OF DEAN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DEPENDS MAINLY ON HOW
    LONG THE SYSTEM STAYS OVER WATER BEFORE MAKING ITS FINAL LANDFALL.

    ASIDE FROM THE TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES THAT ARE COMMON WITH SUCH INTENSE
    HURRICANES...THE MOTION HAS BEEN BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST
    OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/16. AS
    THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
    CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD AHEAD OF DEAN...THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE
    HURRICANE WILL BE CONTROLLED LARGELY BY A DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
    SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
    STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED
    WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANY
    CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST DURING THE FIRST
    48 HOURS OR SO SHOULD BE CONSIDERED COSMETIC. WE HAVE SHIFTED THE
    OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD IN THE LATTER PART OF
    THE PERIOD...BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS SHOWN BY THE GFS...U.K. MET.
    AND ECMWF MODELS.

    IT IS IMPERATIVE NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
    CONSIDERING THE MARGIN OF ERROR OF NHC PREDICTIONS...THE CORE OF
    THIS LARGE HURRICANE COULD EASILY BE 30-50 N MI ON EITHER SIDE OF
    THE FORECAST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

    ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO MAKE A
    POSITION AND INTENSITY FIX ON DEAN AROUND 1200 UTC.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 19/0900Z 16.6N 73.4W 125 KT
    12HR VT 19/1800Z 17.1N 76.0W 130 KT
    24HR VT 20/0600Z 17.9N 79.5W 130 KT
    36HR VT 20/1800Z 18.7N 83.0W 135 KT
    48HR VT 21/0600Z 19.5N 86.6W 140 KT
    72HR VT 22/0600Z 21.0N 93.5W 85 KT
    96HR VT 23/0600Z 22.5N 99.0W 50 KT...INLAND
    120HR VT 24/0600Z 23.5N 103.0W 25 KT...INLAND



    HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25

    Published on August 19, 2007 5:10 AM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 0900 UTC SUN AUG 19 2007

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
    OF HAITI FROM WEST OF THE HAITI-DOMINICAN BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
    A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
    ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
    PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
    COMPLETION.

    AT 5 AM EDT....0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
    HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN
    REPUBLIC.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH
    OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
    CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
    GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
    CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
    HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
    CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...
    CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. A TROPICAL STORM
    WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
    WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
    WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
    PROGRESS OF DEAN.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 73.4W AT 19/0900Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 921 MB
    EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
    64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
    50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
    34 KT.......180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.
    12 FT SEAS..360NE 210SE 150SW 300NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 73.4W AT 19/0900Z
    AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 72.6W

    FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.1N 76.0W
    MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
    64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
    50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
    34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

    FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.9N 79.5W
    MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
    64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
    50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
    34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

    FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.7N 83.0W
    MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
    64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
    50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
    34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

    FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.5N 86.6W
    MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
    50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
    34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

    FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.0N 93.5W
    MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
    50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
    34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 22.5N 99.0W...INLAND
    MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

    OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 23.5N 103.0W...INLAND
    MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 73.4W



    HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 25

    Published on August 19, 2007 5:09 AM | Comments

    ...DEAN CONTINUES HEADING FOR JAMAICA...

    HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

    ...DEAN CONTINUES HEADING FOR JAMAICA...

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
    OF HAITI FROM WEST OF THE HAITI-DOMINICAN BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
    A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
    ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
    PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
    COMPLETION.

    AT 5 AM EDT....0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
    HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN
    REPUBLIC.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH
    OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
    CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
    GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
    CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
    HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
    CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...
    CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. A TROPICAL STORM
    WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
    WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
    WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
    PROGRESS OF DEAN.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST OR ABOUT 245 MILES...
    395 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 155 MILES...
    250 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

    DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
    AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
    HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS JUST
    SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI DURING THE NEXT FEW
    HOURS AND WILL BE NEAR JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
    24 HOURS.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
    MILES...335 KM.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

    COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
    LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
    POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

    STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
    JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
    8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
    CAYMAN ISLANDS. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
    SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THE
    REMAINDER OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4
    INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS
    COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

    REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...16.6 N...73.4 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
    MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB.

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
    AM EDT.



    Video of Hurricane Dean from Guadeloupe

    Published on August 19, 2007 4:38 AM | Comments

    A couple of amateur videos showing the effects of Hurricane Dean on the French island of Guadeloupe:



    Video of Dean from Martinique

    Published on August 19, 2007 4:31 AM | Comments

    This is listed on You Tube as raw footage from the AP:

    And this looks like some amateur footage:



    Hurricane Dean Video from St. Lucia

    Published on August 19, 2007 4:28 AM | Comments

    Here is some amateur footage from St. Lucia:



    Hurricane Dean ravages the Caribbean

    Published on August 19, 2007 4:14 AM | Comments

    From the Telegraph - AP photo of Martinique:

    wstorm118.jpgHurricane Dean could become a Category Five monster as it gathers force in the Caribbean this weekend, forecasters said.

    Winds have already reached Category Four speeds of 145mph, claiming the lives of at least three people as it headed towards Jamaica - where about 5,000 Britons are on holiday.

    The National Hurricane Center in Miami warned it could achieve the highest category with winds of 150mph before it reaches Mexico on Monday.

    In America, Nasa shortened today's spacewalk on the Endeavour shuttle to allow it to return before the storm arrives at the Houston mission control on Wednesday.



    A few photos from Martinique

    Published on August 19, 2007 4:11 AM | Comments

    A few photos from Martinique showing the effect of Hurricane Dean on the island, from StormCarib.



    11 PM updates

    Published on August 19, 2007 4:03 AM | Comments

    The 11 PM updates showed a slightly wobbly Dean - winds had dropped a little and the eye was less organized, but the pressure was continuing to drop and the forecast was for more strengthening. The models are also all agreeing on the track of the storm and the NHC feels confident it - which is now just slightly south of Jamaica and then over the Yucatan peninsula. We will have the 5 AM EST updates soon and send out an alert then. If you were planning on traveling to Jamaica or the Cayman Islands you should contact your airline and hotel.



    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 24

    Published on August 19, 2007 4:02 AM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007

    THE INNER CORE OF DEAN APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING SOME CHANGES. RADAR
    IMAGERY ONBOARD THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DEPICTS
    CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS AT RADII OF ABOUT 10 AND 20 N MI...WITH THE
    OUTER EYEWALL RECENTLY BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED.
    FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO REVEALED DOUBLE MAXIMA. WIND DATA AT
    FLIGHT LEVEL...FROM THE SFMR...AND FROM DROPSONDES DIRECTLY SUPPORT
    AN INTENSITY OF NO MORE THAN ABOUT 115 KT. THE CENTRAL
    PRESSURE...HOWEVER...HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DROPPING AND WAS MOST
    RECENTLY MEASURED AT 918 MB. ASSUMING THAT THE MAXIMUM WIND HAS
    NOT BEEN SAMPLED...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 125 KT...BUT
    THIS COULD BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE. THE AIRCRAFT WILL CONTINUE
    TO INVESTIGATE DEAN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS TO SEE IF THE WINDS COME
    BACK UP.

    DEAN WOBBLED WESTWARD EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT THE LONGER-TERM
    MOTION TOWARD 280 DEGREES AT ABOUT 15 KT SEEMS TO HAVE RESUMED. AS
    THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT
    WAS EAST OF FLORIDA A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN
    GULF OF MEXICO AND HEADED QUICKLY WESTWARD. THAT LOW IS FORECAST TO
    BE REPLACED BY A LARGE AND STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
    UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD
    REINFORCE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF DEAN...THROUGH THE
    NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...OVER SOME PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
    PENINSULA...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODELS HAVE
    IN GENERAL SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE GFDL WHICH IS
    NO LONGER THE NORTHERN OUTLIER. THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN VERY GOOD
    AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FIVE-DAY FORECAST
    PERIOD...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS INCREASING. THE
    OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A TAD TO THE SOUTH AND IS
    VERY NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

    THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE
    DOUBLE EYEWALL STRUCTURE...BUT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS QUITE LOW AND
    THE INNER CORE COULD QUICKLY REORGANIZE AT ANY TIME...SO ANY DIP IN
    THE INTENSITY WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT-LIVED. THROUGHOUT ITS STAY IN
    THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...ATMOSPHERIC AND
    OCEANIC CONDITIONS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE
    INTENSITY AS SUGGESTED BY ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. SINCE THE
    NEW TRACK FORECAST RESULTS IN A LONGER STAY OVER THE YUCATAN
    PENINSULA...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED
    SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BUT STILL INDICATES
    A MAJOR HURRICANE AT FINAL LANDFALL.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 19/0300Z 16.2N 71.7W 125 KT
    12HR VT 19/1200Z 16.8N 74.3W 130 KT
    24HR VT 20/0000Z 17.6N 77.8W 130 KT
    36HR VT 20/1200Z 18.4N 81.4W 135 KT
    48HR VT 21/0000Z 19.3N 85.1W 140 KT
    72HR VT 22/0000Z 21.0N 92.0W 85 KT
    96HR VT 23/0000Z 23.0N 98.0W 100 KT...INLAND
    120HR VT 24/0000Z 24.0N 101.0W 30 KT...INLAND



    HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24

    Published on August 19, 2007 4:00 AM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 0300 UTC SUN AUG 19 2007

    AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
    ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
    DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
    REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
    THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE
    WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

    A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
    WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
    PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH
    COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
    BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE
    NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
    IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE
    OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL
    STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
    WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    AT 11 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
    WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE
    AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA
    JUVENTUD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
    CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
    HOURS.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
    WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
    PROGRESS OF DEAN.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 71.7W AT 19/0300Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 918 MB
    EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
    64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
    50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
    34 KT.......180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.
    12 FT SEAS..360NE 210SE 150SW 300NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 71.7W AT 19/0300Z
    AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 71.0W

    FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.8N 74.3W
    MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
    64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
    50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
    34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

    FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.6N 77.8W
    MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
    64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
    50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
    34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

    FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.4N 81.4W
    MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
    64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
    50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
    34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

    FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.3N 85.1W
    MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
    50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
    34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

    FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.0N 92.0W
    MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
    50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
    34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 23.0N 98.0W...INLAND
    MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

    OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 24.0N 101.0W...INLAND
    MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 71.7W



    HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A

    Published on August 19, 2007 3:58 AM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 200 AM AST SUN AUG 19 2007

    ...DEAN HEADING TOWARD JAMAICA...

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
    OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO
    PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA
    AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

    A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
    WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
    PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    AT 2 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
    HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
    BARAHONA TO THE SOUTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER...AND HAS
    DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM EAST OF CABO CAUCEDO
    TO CABO ENGANO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM CABO
    CAUCEDO WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF
    PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A
    TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
    CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
    GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
    CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
    HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
    CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...
    CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. A TROPICAL STORM
    WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
    WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING WESTERN
    CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
    PROGRESS OF DEAN.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES...
    480 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 155 MILES...
    245 KM...SOUTH OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

    DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28
    KM/HR...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
    DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
    HURRICANE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI OVER
    THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL BE NEAR JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
    THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
    ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
    MILES...335 KM.

    AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY MEASURED A MINIMUM
    CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

    COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
    LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
    POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

    STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
    JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS
    OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM
    TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THE REMAINDER OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA
    COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7
    INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
    MUDSLIDES.

    REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...16.4 N...72.6 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
    MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    500 AM AST.



    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 23

    Published on August 18, 2007 4:57 PM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007

    THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF DEAN
    DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
    INTO THE EYE MEASURED 930 MB AND THE REPORTED WINDS SUPPORT AN
    INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE CREW OBSERVED A
    DOUBLE EYEWALL AND THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL PROBABLY
    RESULT IN SHORT TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. THE SATELLITE
    PRESENTATION IS OUTSTANDING WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE...NUMEROUS
    SPIRAL BANDS AND AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW. WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
    SHEAR AND VERY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
    AND YUCATAN...SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. IN
    FACT...DEAN COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE
    HURRICANE AT ANY TIME BEFORE IT REACHES YUCATAN.

    THE HURRICANE IS HEADING ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OR 285
    DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE
    IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST GLOBAL
    MODEL RUNS. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK
    OR SPEED THROUGH 5 DAYS...BUT PERHAPS WITH A SLIGHT TURN MORE TO THE
    WEST IN A DAY OR SO. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
    OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT BRINGS THE
    HURRICANE OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES
    ALONG WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND KEEPS DEAN IN
    THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY DAY FOUR. THERE
    COULD BE VERY UNCERTAIN DAYS AHEAD SINCE THE GFDL HAS HAD A VERY
    RELIABLE TRACK RECORD.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 18/2100Z 16.1N 70.2W 130 KT
    12HR VT 19/0600Z 16.8N 72.6W 135 KT
    24HR VT 19/1800Z 17.7N 76.0W 135 KT
    36HR VT 20/0600Z 18.5N 79.3W 125 KT
    48HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 83.0W 140 KT
    72HR VT 21/1800Z 21.5N 90.0W 100 KT
    96HR VT 22/1800Z 23.0N 96.0W 105 KT
    120HR VT 23/1800Z 24.5N 101.5W 40 KT...INLAND



    HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23

    Published on August 18, 2007 4:56 PM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 2100 UTC SAT AUG 18 2007

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
    DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
    REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
    THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE
    WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
    THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
    WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
    PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH
    COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
    BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE
    NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
    IS ALSO EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY
    EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
    MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
    WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A
    HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
    THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
    WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
    PROGRESS OF DEAN.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 70.2W AT 18/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 MB
    EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
    64 KT....... 60NE 45SE 30SW 50NW.
    50 KT.......100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
    34 KT.......200NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
    12 FT SEAS..360NE 270SE 180SW 360NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 70.2W AT 18/2100Z
    AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 69.4W

    FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.8N 72.6W
    MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
    64 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 50NW.
    50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
    34 KT...200NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.

    FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.7N 76.0W
    MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
    64 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 50NW.
    50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
    34 KT...200NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.

    FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.5N 79.3W
    MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
    64 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 50NW.
    50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
    34 KT...200NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.

    FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N 83.0W
    MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
    50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
    34 KT...200NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.

    FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.5N 90.0W
    MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
    50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
    34 KT...200NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 23.0N 96.0W
    MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

    OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 24.5N 101.5W...INLAND
    MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 70.2W

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z



    HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 23

    Published on August 18, 2007 4:54 PM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2007

    ...OUTER FRINGES OF HURRICANE DEAN LASHING THE SOUTH COAST OF
    HISPANIOLA...

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
    DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
    REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
    THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE
    WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
    THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
    WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
    PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH
    COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
    BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE
    NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
    IS ALSO EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY
    EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
    MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
    WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A
    HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
    THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
    WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
    PROGRESS OF DEAN.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST OR ABOUT 455 MILES...
    735 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 165 MILES...
    270 KM...SOUTH OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

    DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
    AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
    HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO
    MOVE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TODAY AND WILL BE NEAR JAMAICA ON SUNDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
    HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
    HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
    IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
    MILES...370 KM. PUNTA CANA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS BEEN
    EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
    HOURS.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

    STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
    JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS
    OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HAITI WITH MAXIMUM
    TOTALS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE DOMINICAN
    REPUBLIC...HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
    RAIN WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAIN
    ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH
    ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
    LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

    COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
    LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
    POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

    REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...16.1 N...70.2 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
    MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
    PM AST.



    More deaths attributed to Dean

    Published on August 18, 2007 1:47 AM | Comments

    This sadly is from an Australian press account:

    In Dominica, a woman and her seven-year-old son were killed when a rain-soaked hillside gave way and crushed the home where they were sleeping, said Cecil Shillingford, the national disaster coordinator.

    So that would make three people including the man on St. Lucia. I have not seen much news yet out of Martinique however and not sure if there were any fatalities there attributed to the storm.



    St. Lucia photos

    Published on August 18, 2007 1:43 AM | Comments

    The always excellent StormCarib website has a page where people have posted photos from St. Lucia.



    Hurricane Dean Gathers Strength as It Heads Toward Jamaica

    Published on August 18, 2007 1:41 AM | Comments

    From Bloomberg.com:

    Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Dean will probably strengthen today as it sweeps the southern edge of the Dominican Republic and heads toward Jamaica.

    The Category 4 hurricane's center was 755 miles (1,210 kilometers) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and heading west at 18 miles (30 kilometers) per hour, the hurricane center said in a 10 p.m. New York time advisory yesterday. Sustained winds were reaching about 145 mph.

    Hurricane conditions could reach southern parts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic today, the center said. The storm is likely to descend on Jamaica tomorrow.

    ``Jamaica is the next land mass that is looking at a strong likelihood of a direct hit,'' said Dennis Feltgen, meteorologist and spokesman for the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami.



    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20...CORRECTED

    Published on August 18, 2007 1:26 AM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007

    ...CORRECTED ERRONEOUS INDICATOR OF INLAND AT 96 HOURS IN TABLE...

    DEAN HAS BEEN STEADILY INTENSIFYING TONIGHT. THE U.S. AIR FORCE
    RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MEASURED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL
    WINDS OF 138 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 124 KT AT THE SURFACE. IN
    ADDITION...THE AIRCRAFT IS EQUIPPED WITH THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY
    MICROWAVE RADIOMETER WHICH MEASURED WINDS AS STRONG AS 123 KT THIS
    EVENING. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN
    DROPPING...WITH THE LATEST AIRCRAFT MEASUREMENT BEING 937 MB. THE
    ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 125 KT...WHICH IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH
    DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THE
    STORM HAS BECOME A GOOD BIT LARGER...AND WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
    EXPANDED IN ALL QUADRANTS. DEAN MIGHT ALSO HAVE A CLOSE ENCOUNTER
    WITH NOAA BUOY 42059...LESS THAN 100 N MI DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
    CENTER OF THE HURRICANE...IN A FEW HOURS.

    THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/16...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
    BEFORE. THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...AND
    THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS ON A TRACK TOWARD
    THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS NOTABLY
    DISAGREE AND HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH...INCLUDING
    THE NORTHERN OUTLYING GFDL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...HOWEVER...HAS
    NOT CHANGED NOTICEABLY...SINCE THE MODELS MIGHT SHIFT BACK THE
    OTHER WAY. THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODELS AT DAYS FOUR AND
    FIVE IS INDICATIVE OF THE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES TYPICAL OF THOSE
    LONGER FORECAST RANGES. THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TEXT AND
    GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS INCLUDED IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE ALSO REFLECT
    THESE UNCERTAINTIES. THE CHANCES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
    SIMILAR AT EACH LOCATION ALONG THE ENTIRE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
    COASTS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO DIFFERENTIATE
    THE RISK OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BETWEEN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS.

    THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF DEAN...GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR AND WARM WATERS
    AHEAD...WILL LIKELY BE CONTROLLED BY INTERNAL STRUCTURAL CHANGES
    AND/OR BRIEF INTERACTIONS WITH LAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
    FOR AN INTENSITY NEAR THE CATEGORY 4/5 THRESHOLD THROUGH 72
    HOURS...AND IS ONLY LOWERED ON DAYS 4 AND 5 DUE TO POTENTIAL
    PASSAGE OVER YUCATAN.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 18/0300Z 14.9N 65.9W 125 KT
    12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.5N 68.4W 130 KT
    24HR VT 19/0000Z 16.4N 71.7W 135 KT
    36HR VT 19/1200Z 17.3N 75.0W 135 KT
    48HR VT 20/0000Z 18.2N 78.4W 135 KT
    72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.0N 85.5W 140 KT
    96HR VT 22/0000Z 22.5N 91.5W 110 KT
    120HR VT 23/0000Z 25.0N 97.5W 110 KT...NEAR COAST OF MEXICO



    HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20

    Published on August 18, 2007 1:24 AM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 0300 UTC SAT AUG 18 2007

    AT 11 PM AST...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
    PENINSULA OF HAITI...FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO
    PORT-AU-PRINCE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FROM
    PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

    AT 11 PM AST...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS
    DEPENDENCIES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND ALL TROPICAL STORM
    WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE
    LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
    KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA.

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
    DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
    REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
    CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
    HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
    TO COMPLETION.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
    ISLANDS....U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THESE WARNINGS
    WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED ON SATURDAY MORNING.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
    THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA.

    A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
    HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
    THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE
    PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A
    TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
    WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
    MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 65.9W AT 18/0300Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB
    EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
    64 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
    50 KT.......100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
    34 KT.......180NE 120SE 100SW 180NW.
    12 FT SEAS..375NE 210SE 75SW 375NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 65.9W AT 18/0300Z
    AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 65.1W

    FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.5N 68.4W
    MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
    64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
    50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
    34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.

    FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.4N 71.7W
    MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
    64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
    50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
    34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.

    FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.3N 75.0W
    MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
    64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
    50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
    34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.

    FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.2N 78.4W
    MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
    50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
    34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.

    FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.0N 85.5W
    MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
    50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
    34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 91.5W...INLAND
    MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

    OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 25.0N 97.5W
    MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 65.9W



    HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 20

    Published on August 18, 2007 1:23 AM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

    ...CATEGORY FOUR DEAN INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...

    AT 11 PM AST...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
    PENINSULA OF HAITI...FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO
    PORT-AU-PRINCE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FROM
    PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

    AT 11 PM AST...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS
    DEPENDENCIES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND ALL TROPICAL STORM
    WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE
    LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
    KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA.

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
    DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
    REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
    CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
    HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
    TO COMPLETION.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
    ISLANDS....U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THESE WARNINGS
    WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED ON SATURDAY MORNING.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
    THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA.

    A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
    HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
    THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE
    PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A
    TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
    WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
    MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST OR ABOUT 755 MILES...
    1210 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 240 MILES...
    390 KM...SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

    DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
    GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
    ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH
    OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY
    SATURDAY.

    DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
    THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
    MILES...335 KM.

    THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 937
    MB...27.67 INCHES.

    STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
    DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
    MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
    LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES

    REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...14.9 N...65.9 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB.

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
    AM AST.



    HURRICANE DEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

    Published on August 18, 2007 1:22 AM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 930 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

    DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
    INVESTIGATING HURRICANE DEAN INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
    HAVE INCREASED TO 145 MPH...CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    HURRICANE SCALE.



    Satellite Image of Hurricane Dean

    Published on August 17, 2007 6:09 PM | Comments

    http://www.caribbean-on-line.com/hurricanes/images/TRCdean229_G12-thumb.jpg

    From the NOAA



    Hurricane Dean strengthens to Category 3 storm

    Published on August 17, 2007 6:02 PM | Comments

    From the CBC, at least one person dead on St. Lucia:

    Hurricane Dean pounded the eastern Caribbean islands of St. Lucia and Martinique Friday, killing one person, and gained strength as it moved westward.

    The U.S. National Hurricane Centre in Miami upgraded Dean to a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 205 km/h, and higher gusts.

    As it passed between Martinique and St. Lucia, the hurricane caused flooding, downed trees, ripped-off roofs and knocked-out power.

    "We don't have a roof … everything is exposed. We tried to save what we could," said Josephine Marcelus of Morne Rouge, a town in northern Martinique. "We sealed ourselves in one room, praying that the hurricane stops blowing over Martinique."

    One man in St. Lucia was reported by police to have drowned in a swollen river when he attempted to retrieve a cow.



    5 PM EST Updates, August 17

    Published on August 17, 2007 5:21 PM | Comments

    The 5 PM updates from the NHC are all posted below. For the next 36 hours or so Dean will probably not be threatening land, and most of the watches and warnings for the Lesser Antilles are being discontinued, but the takeaway line from the 5 PM updates is this:

    THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ALL INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

    Jamaica is still right in the path as of this update.



    HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19

    Published on August 17, 2007 5:20 PM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 2100 UTC FRI AUG 17 2007

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS
    DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
    TONIGHT.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
    ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
    ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
    KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE
    WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
    THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
    REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO
    BEATA TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
    HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

    AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
    HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
    HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
    WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
    TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE
    PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
    STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
    WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND
    DOMINICA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

    AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST.
    LUCIA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
    THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 64.5W AT 17/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
    EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
    64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
    50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.
    34 KT.......160NE 120SE 60SW 160NW.
    12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE 60SW 150NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 64.5W AT 17/2100Z
    AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 63.6W

    FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.5N 67.4W
    MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
    64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
    50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.
    34 KT...160NE 120SE 60SW 160NW.

    FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.4N 70.8W
    MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
    64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
    50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW.
    34 KT...160NE 120SE 75SW 160NW.

    FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.3N 74.0W
    MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
    64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
    50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW.
    34 KT...160NE 120SE 75SW 160NW.

    FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.0N 77.0W
    MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
    50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
    34 KT...160NE 120SE 80SW 160NW.

    FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.0N 84.0W
    MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
    50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
    34 KT...160NE 120SE 80SW 160NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 90.0W
    MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

    OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 24.5N 96.0W
    MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 64.5W



    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19

    Published on August 17, 2007 5:19 PM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007

    DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE EARLIER TODAY
    INDICATED THAT DEAN REACHED 110 KNOTS. NEXT PLANE IS EXPECTED TO
    REACH DEAN AROUND 00 UTC TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW
    AN EYE FEATURE...NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS
    WHICH ARE STILL AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
    THE OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. ALTHOUGH THE
    POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DUE TO EYEWALL
    REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST
    TO REMAIN LOW AND THE OCEAN TEMPERATURE INCREASES WESTWARD. THIS
    WOULD CALL FOR AN OVERALL UPWARD INTENSITY TREND. THIS IS
    SUPPORTED BY THE SHIPS....GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

    DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS. THE
    STEERING PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE
    SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
    OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST
    TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WESTWARD AND BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THIS
    PATTERN WOULD MAINTAIN DEAN OVER THE CARIBBEAN ON A GENERAL
    WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN YUCATAN AND THE WESTERN GULF OF
    MEXICO. THE GFDL SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ACROSS EXTREME
    WESTERN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS
    OUTSIDE THE OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IT CAN NOT BE RULE
    OUT COMPLETELY SINCE THIS MODEL HAS AN EXCELLENT FORECAST TRACK
    HISTORY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
    ONE AND FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

    THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE
    THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ALL INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN
    SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
    DEAN.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 17/2100Z 15.0N 64.5W 110 KT
    12HR VT 18/0600Z 15.5N 67.4W 115 KT
    24HR VT 18/1800Z 16.4N 70.8W 120 KT
    36HR VT 19/0600Z 17.3N 74.0W 125 KT
    48HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 77.0W 130 KT
    72HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 84.0W 130 KT
    96HR VT 21/1800Z 22.0N 90.0W 100 KT...INLAND
    120HR VT 22/1800Z 24.5N 96.0W 105 KT



    HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 19

    Published on August 17, 2007 5:18 PM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

    ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN RACING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
    SEA...

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS
    DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
    TONIGHT.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
    ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
    ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
    KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE
    WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
    THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
    REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO
    BEATA TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
    HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

    AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
    HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
    HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
    WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
    TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE
    PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
    STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
    WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND
    DOMINICA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

    AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST.
    LUCIA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
    THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST OR ABOUT 840 MILES...
    1355 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 260 MILES...
    415 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

    DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. THIS
    MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
    DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
    HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
    DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
    ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO REACH DEAN TONIGHT.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
    MILES...295 KM.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.

    STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
    DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
    MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
    LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

    REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...15.0 N...64.5 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB.

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
    PM AST.



    Hurricane Dean 11 AM EST update, August 17

    Published on August 17, 2007 11:08 AM | Comments

    Dean is through the Lesser Antilles and now in the open water of the Caribbean Sea where the storm is strengthening. Hurricane warnings are still up for Guadeloupe, Martinique and Dominica but will most likely be discontinued soon. The DR, Jamaica and Cayman Islands need to monitor Dean closely. The forecast track has been brought a little further north, and at this time is projected to cut straight across Jamaica. Let's hope that changes. The 11 AM EST Public Advisory and Forecast Discussion have been posted. The Forecast Advisory is below. We will be posting more news and hopefully pictures as they become available.

    HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1500 UTC FRI AUG 17 2007

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE...DOMINICA...
    AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
    DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
    ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
    EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...SABA...ST.
    EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST.
    MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

    AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA HAS
    BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

    AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
    HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
    ALONG THE SOUTH COAST FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
    REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CABO BEATA
    TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

    AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
    WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
    BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

    A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
    WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    AT 11AM AST...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND
    ITS DEPENDENCIES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
    JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
    OF DEAN.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 62.6W AT 17/1500Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
    EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
    64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
    50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
    34 KT.......120NE 100SE 50SW 160NW.
    12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE 60SW 150NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 62.6W AT 17/1500Z
    AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 61.7W

    FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.0N 65.5W
    MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
    64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
    50 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
    34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 160NW.

    FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.8N 69.0W
    MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
    64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
    50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW.
    34 KT...140NE 100SE 75SW 140NW.

    FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.7N 72.3W
    MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
    64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
    50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW.
    34 KT...140NE 100SE 75SW 140NW.

    FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.5N 75.5W
    MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
    50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
    34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW.

    FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.5N 82.0W
    MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
    50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
    34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.5N 88.0W...INLAND
    MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

    OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 94.0W
    MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 62.6W



    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17

    Published on August 17, 2007 11:08 AM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007

    THE CENTER OF DEAN CROSSED THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING BETWEEN
    ST. LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE AS INDICATED BY THE MARTINIQUE RADAR. AT
    0842 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MARTINIQUE REPORTED
    SUSTAINED WINDS OF 66 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 90 KNOTS. AN AIR FORCE
    PLANE REACHED THE HURRICANE AND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 964
    MB...FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 100 KNOTS AND A CLOSED EYEWALL. THE
    CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH
    PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES AND OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. LATEST
    VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS AN EYE FEATURE. BOTH SATELLITE PRESENTATION
    AND DATA FROM THE SFMR ON THE PLANE SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
    90 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING
    SINCE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE LOW ACROSS THE
    CARIBBEAN. DEAN COULD BECOME A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT
    REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHERE THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS THE
    HIGHEST. IN FACT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF
    SHIPS...GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.

    THE MOTION OF DEAN...280/18...CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY A STRONG
    RIDGE TO THE NORTH. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN
    BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO RUN WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE AND THE
    ONLY POSSIBLE INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE IS TO ADD A
    SMALL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COMPONENT IN THE LATER PERIODS. THE
    OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A
    SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE NORTH DUE TO THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS.
    THE GFDL SOLUTION INSISTS ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE
    YUCATAN CHANNEL...BRINGING DEAN INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
    AS A STRONGER HURRICANE THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT
    SHOULD BE NOTED THAT GUIDANCE FOR DAY 4 AND 5 IS MORE UNCERTAIN
    TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 17/1500Z 14.6N 62.6W 90 KT
    12HR VT 18/0000Z 15.0N 65.5W 100 KT
    24HR VT 18/1200Z 15.8N 69.0W 105 KT
    36HR VT 19/0000Z 16.7N 72.3W 110 KT
    48HR VT 19/1200Z 17.5N 75.5W 120 KT
    72HR VT 20/1200Z 19.5N 82.0W 130 KT
    96HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 88.0W 100 KT...INLAND
    120HR VT 22/1200Z 24.0N 94.0W 105 KT



    ...DEAN MOVING AWAY FROM LESSER ANTILLES AND STRENGTHENING...

    Published on August 17, 2007 11:06 AM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

    ...DEAN MOVING AWAY FROM LESSER ANTILLES AND STRENGTHENING...

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE...DOMINICA...
    AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
    DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
    ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
    EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...SABA...ST.
    EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST.
    MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

    AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA HAS
    BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

    AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
    HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
    ALONG THE SOUTH COAST FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
    REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CABO BEATA
    TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

    AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
    WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
    BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

    A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
    WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    AT 11AM AST...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND
    ITS DEPENDENCIES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
    JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
    OF DEAN.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...
    170 KM...WEST OF MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 350 MILES...565 KM...SOUTHEAST
    OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

    DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS
    MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK
    WILL KEEP DEAN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
    KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
    SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
    NEXT 24 HOURS AND DEAN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
    MILES...295 KM.

    LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
    HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.

    STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DEAN OVER
    PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO
    5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
    EXPECTED IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
    10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
    THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

    REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...14.6 N...62.6 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB.

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
    PM AST.



    Meteo France

    Published on August 17, 2007 10:02 AM | Comments

    Good image of Hurricane Dean from Meteo France

    http://www.caribbean-on-line.com/hurricanes/images/Tagant-1-thumb.jpg



    SXMCYCLONE

    Published on August 17, 2007 9:50 AM | Comments

    Here is something cool - it's in French but the graphics are universal: http://sxmcyclone.com/

    dean.jpg



    Hurricane Dean blasts into Caribbean

    Published on August 17, 2007 9:34 AM | Comments

    Some news reports starting to come in now - from Reuters:

    MIAMI (Reuters) - Hurricane Dean uprooted trees, tore down power lines and ripped the roof off a hospital in St. Lucia on Friday as it raced into the Caribbean on a track that could take it near Jamaica as a dangerously powerful storm next week, officials said.

    On the nearby French island of Martinique, sustained winds were measured at 75 mph (120 kph) with gusts up to 105 mph (170 kph), according to France's weather service.

    Dean reached the Caribbean Sea through the narrow St. Lucia Channel after a long journey across the Atlantic and threatened to become a powerful Category 4 hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale in the area of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula in four days.

    The first hurricane of the Atlantic season lifted the roof off the pediatric wing at Victoria Hospital in St. Lucia's capital, Castries. Patients had been moved from that area and there were no immediate reports of deaths or injuries on the former British colony of 170,000 people, said Dawn French, the island's emergency management director.

    "It's very gusty and it's very rainy. We had a dead calm night and now we're getting walloped," said French, reached by telephone as she hunkered down to wait out the storm.

    "We seem to have a lot of debris on the roads and some downed trees and downed power lines," she said. "The all-clear hasn't been given so we really haven't been able to get out to look around yet."

    By 8 a.m. EDT, Dean was 50 miles west-southwest of Martinique, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

    It was moving to the west at a brisk 23 mph (37 kph), forecasters said, a speed that would take it well clear of the Lesser Antilles within a few hours.

    "I can say it could have been a lot worse. It's not that bad," said Clinton Charlery of Charlery's Car Rental in St. Lucia.

    It sounds like the islands skirted major disaster, which is great news.



    HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A

    Published on August 17, 2007 7:51 AM | Comments

    Here is the 8 AM EST NHC update - "...DEAN POUNDING MARTINIQUE AND DOMINICA...HEADING FOR THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA..."

    We'll be sending out an email alert and update once the 11 AM reports come in.

    HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 800 AM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

    ...DEAN POUNDING MARTINIQUE AND DOMINICA...HEADING FOR THE EASTERN
    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA... MARTINIQUE...
    DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
    ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
    EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...GRENADA
    AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT...
    ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA
    AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
    DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
    BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
    ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
    BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES BEEN DISCONTINUED.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
    JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
    OF DEAN.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED BY
    AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...
    LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST OR 50 MILES...80 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
    MARTINIQUE.

    DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
    GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
    SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD TAKE THE
    CENTER OF DEAN AWAY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY
    OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER. SOME
    STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
    MILES...220 KM. FORT-DE-FRANCE ON MARTINIQUE RECENTLY REPORTED A
    WIND GUST OF 87 MPH...143 KM/HR...WHILE DOMINICA REPORTED A WIND
    GUST OF 64 MPH...104 KM/HR.

    A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
    970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

    STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
    ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
    NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.

    STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
    AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
    ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. ACROSS PUERTO
    RICO...STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
    MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
    LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

    REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...14.4 N...61.7 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.



    Hurricane Dean open thread

    Published on August 17, 2007 5:01 AM | Comments

    Please use this post to comment on or ask questions about Dean. Almost 500 people have signed up for our alerts in the past few days, we know you are coming to the site, so don't be afraid to comment! We have opened the system up temporarily so no registration is required.



    5 AM EST Updates, August 17

    Published on August 17, 2007 4:57 AM | Comments

    The latest updates from the NHC are out and the best news for the Lesser Antilles is that it appears that Dean may have actually weakened a bit as it approached the islands. That being said, favorable conditions are expected to lay ahead once Dean enters the Caribbean Sea.

    THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF DEAN IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN EITHER SATELLITE IMAGERY OR IMAGERY FROM THE FRENCH RADAR ON MARTINIQUE. THERE ARE ONLY OCCASIONAL GLIMPSES OF A RAGGED EYE ON RADAR...AND THE EYEWALL HAS BEEN AT BEST ABOUT 50 PERCENT COVERAGE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...WHICH ARE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THIS IS A LITTLE GENEROUS.

    The sun should be up soon and we will be hunting around the web for news stories and images to post. Please let us know if you find something, and/or feel free to post comments and or questions here on the blog.



    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16

    Published on August 17, 2007 4:56 AM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007

    THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF DEAN IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN EITHER
    SATELLITE IMAGERY OR IMAGERY FROM THE FRENCH RADAR ON MARTINIQUE.
    THERE ARE ONLY OCCASIONAL GLIMPSES OF A RAGGED EYE ON RADAR...AND
    THE EYEWALL HAS BEEN AT BEST ABOUT 50 PERCENT COVERAGE. SATELLITE
    INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...WHICH ARE
    UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 85 KT
    FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THIS IS A LITTLE GENEROUS.

    THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/21. DEAN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
    DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 72 HR WITH
    DEAN REMAINING ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
    THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAVE SEEMINGLY RESPONDED TO THE G-IV JET
    MISSION BY SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE NORTH OF DEAN...WITH A
    MOTION THAT IS SLOWER AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS
    FORECASTS. GIVEN THE INITIAL MOTION...THE FIRST 12 HR OF THE
    FORECAST TRACK WILL BE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
    PACKAGE...WITH A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE RIGHT FROM 12-72 HR. AFTER 72
    HR...THE FORECAST IS BECOMING MORE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
    IN THE EVENTUAL INTERACTION OF DEAN AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
    FORECAST TO BE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS
    NOW CALL FOR DEAN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
    GULF...WHILE THE CANADIAN...NOGAPS...AND EUROPEAN MODELS CONTINUE
    TO FORECAST A WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE
    BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE GFS AND THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS ARE
    BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES. THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HR IS ALSO
    NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS
    GUIDANCE.

    THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEAN HAS APPARENTLY BEEN SLOWED BY A COMBINATION
    OF DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND LIGHT WESTERLY
    SHEAR. THESE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 12-24 HR...SO THE
    INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME.
    AFTER 24 HR...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
    STRENGTHENING...WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLING FOR
    DEAN TO REACH AT LEAST CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
    IS THE SAME AS IN THE EARLIER ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HR...THEN
    SLIGHTLY STRONGER THEREAFTER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
    WEAKENING FROM 96 TO 120 HR IS BASED ON DEAN CROSSING THE YUCATAN
    PENINSULA...AND IF IT INSTEAD MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IT
    COULD REMAIN STRONGER.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 17/0900Z 14.3N 60.9W 85 KT
    12HR VT 17/1800Z 14.7N 63.6W 90 KT
    24HR VT 18/0600Z 15.3N 67.0W 95 KT
    36HR VT 18/1800Z 16.1N 70.5W 105 KT
    48HR VT 19/0600Z 16.9N 74.0W 115 KT
    72HR VT 20/0600Z 18.5N 81.0W 120 KT
    96HR VT 21/0600Z 20.5N 87.0W 125 KT
    120HR VT 22/0600Z 23.0N 92.0W 95 KT



    HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16

    Published on August 17, 2007 4:43 AM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 0900 UTC FRI AUG 17 2007

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA... MARTINIQUE...
    DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. PREPARATIONS TO
    PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS
    ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A
    TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
    ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
    EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...GRENADA
    AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...
    SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS... MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
    KITTS...BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA. A TROPICAL STORM
    WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
    THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
    SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE
    HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
    EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO
    ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
    WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
    WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
    JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
    OF DEAN.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 60.9W AT 17/0900Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
    EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
    64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 5SW 20NW.
    50 KT....... 50NE 25SE 10SW 50NW.
    34 KT.......120NE 75SE 40SW 120NW.
    12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE 60SW 150NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 60.9W AT 17/0900Z
    AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 59.8W

    FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.7N 63.6W
    MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
    64 KT... 20NE 20SE 5SW 20NW.
    50 KT... 50NE 25SE 10SW 50NW.
    34 KT...120NE 75SE 40SW 120NW.

    FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.3N 67.0W
    MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
    64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
    50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.
    34 KT...140NE 90SE 75SW 140NW.

    FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.1N 70.5W
    MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
    64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
    50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.
    34 KT...140NE 90SE 75SW 140NW.

    FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.9N 74.0W
    MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
    50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
    34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW.

    FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.5N 81.0W
    MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
    50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
    34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 20.5N 87.0W
    MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.

    OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 23.0N 92.0W
    MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 60.9W

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z



    ...CENTER OF DEAN PASSING NEAR ST. LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE...

    Published on August 17, 2007 4:42 AM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 AM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

    ...CENTER OF DEAN PASSING NEAR ST. LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE.

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA... MARTINIQUE...
    DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. PREPARATIONS TO
    PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS
    ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A
    TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
    ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
    EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...GRENADA
    AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...
    SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS... MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
    KITTS...BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA. A TROPICAL STORM
    WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
    THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
    SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE
    HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
    EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO
    ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
    WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
    WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
    JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
    OF DEAN.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST OR IN THE ST. LUCIA
    CHANNEL BETWEEN ST. LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE.

    DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR...AND THIS
    GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
    SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD TAKE THE
    CENTER OF DEAN AWAY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY
    OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER. SOME
    STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
    MILES...220 KM. FORT-DE-FRANCE ON MARTINIQUE RECENTLY REPORTED A
    WIND GUST OF 59 MPH...94 KM/HR...WHILE BARBADOS HAS RECENTLY
    REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 55 MPH...89 KM/HR.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

    STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
    ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
    NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.

    STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
    AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
    ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. ACROSS PUERTO
    RICO...STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
    MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
    LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

    REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...14.3 N...60.9 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
    AM AST.



    Hurricane Dean heads for the Caribbean

    Published on August 17, 2007 3:58 AM | Comments

    Here is a story from the AP, the image is of boarded up shops in Bridgetown, Barbados:

    capt.a8b9d7e6b33748d8b878661f7fea2951.barbados_hurricane_dean_brb102.jpgFORT-DE-FRANCE, Martinique - Airports closed, coastal hotels were evacuated and tourists hunkered down in shelters as powerful Hurricane Dean bore down on the eastern Caribbean.

    The first hurricane of the Atlantic season was a large and dangerous storm, packing 100 mph winds late Thursday as it neared the islands of Martinique, Dominica and St. Lucia, where authorities urged people to stay indoors and out of danger.

    In a region accustomed to rough weather, islanders stocked up on essentials and taped glass windows but conditions ahead of the storm were deceptively calm and even some locals said it was hard to believe that danger loomed out at sea.



    Dean slightly less organized as it approaches the islands

    Published on August 17, 2007 3:06 AM | Comments

    At 3 AM EST the center of Hurricane Dean is close to making landfall, or perhaps the eye may slide right between Martinique and Dominica. Dean is a little less organized and at this point a Category 2 Hurricane, which is about as good as the news gets for the Lesser Antilles.



    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15

    Published on August 17, 2007 3:04 AM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

    THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF DEAN HAS DETERIORATED A BIT OVER THE
    LAST 12 HOURS...WITH NO EVIDENCE OF AN EYE IN CONVENTIONAL OR
    MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ON THE EARLIER AIR FORCE
    FLIGHT RECORDED A PEAK SURFACE WIND OF 88 KT AROUND 19Z IN THE
    SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE EYEWALL...ALONG WITH VERY LITTLE WIND IN
    THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE EARLIER
    AIRCRAFT DATA AND RECENT STRUCTURAL TRENDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
    IS HELD AT 85 KT. COMMUNICATIONS DIFFICULTIES DURING THE
    RECONNAISSANCE MISSION PREVENTED MUCH OF THE DATA FROM GETTING TO
    US...BUT DROPSONDE DATA CALLED IN AFTERWARD BY THE CREW INDICATE
    THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...
    ABOUT 976 MB.

    THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/22. DEAN IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
    THAT HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE CYCLONE. GLOBAL
    MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO
    DO SO FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE GUIDANCE IS VERY
    TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR AT LEAST
    THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE TRACK OF DEAN WILL DEPEND ON
    HOW MUCH INTERACTION THERE IS BETWEEN THE HURRICANE AND A MID- TO
    UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. ALL THE
    AVAILABLE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY MOVES THIS LOW WESTWARD OUT OF THE WAY
    AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO...AND HENCE ONLY
    A MODEST RIGHTWARD BEND IN THE TRACK ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE
    OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
    TRACK. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS AT LONG
    RANGES HOWEVER...A DIFFERENT EVOLUTION WITH THE UPPER LOW IS NOT
    OUT OF THE QUESTION.

    DEAN CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A STRONG OUTFLOW PATTERN...AND THIS
    FAVORABLE UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT TWO TO
    THREE DAYS. DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV MISSION THIS EVENING SHOW NO
    EVIDENCE OF UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS IN THE NEAR ENVIRONMENT...
    AND THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED
    STRENGTHENING IN THE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER FLOW COULD BE A LITTLE
    LESS FAVORABLE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY IF THE UPPER
    LOW LAGS A BIT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHTLY FASTER
    DEVELOPMENT THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT ENDS UP IN THE SAME
    PLACE...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE
    GUIDANCE.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 17/0300Z 14.1N 58.7W 85 KT
    12HR VT 17/1200Z 14.5N 61.9W 90 KT
    24HR VT 18/0000Z 15.1N 65.8W 95 KT
    36HR VT 18/1200Z 15.7N 69.2W 105 KT
    48HR VT 19/0000Z 16.4N 72.6W 115 KT
    72HR VT 20/0000Z 18.0N 80.0W 120 KT
    96HR VT 21/0000Z 19.5N 86.0W 120 KT
    120HR VT 22/0000Z 22.0N 92.0W 90 KT



    HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A

    Published on August 17, 2007 3:00 AM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 200 AM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

    ...CENTER OF DEAN TO PASS NEAR MARTINIQUE AND ST. LUCIA DURING THE
    NEXT FEW HOURS...

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA...MARTINIQUE...
    DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. PREPARATIONS TO
    PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE VERY NEAR COMPLETION.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
    ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
    EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...GRENADA
    AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...
    SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...
    BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
    MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
    WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
    DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
    BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
    ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
    HAITI...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY
    MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...FRENCH RADAR DATA FROM MARTINIQUE HELPED
    LOCATE THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...
    LONGITUDE 59.8 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...135 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
    MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 90 MILES...140 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
    BARBADOS.

    DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR...AND THIS
    MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
    FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR THE
    ISLANDS OF ST. LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY
    OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER. SOME
    STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
    MILES...220 KM.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

    STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
    ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
    NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.

    STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
    AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
    ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. ACROSS PUERTO
    RICO...STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
    MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
    LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

    REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...14.3 N...59.8 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.



    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14

    Published on August 16, 2007 4:51 PM | Comments

    Dean is gaining strength and is forecast to get even stronger after it enters the Caribbean Sea.

    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

    AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN IN THE EYE OF DEAN
    AND THE DATA SO FAR INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN
    FLUCTUATION BETWEEN 974 AND 979 MB. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
    85 KNOTS. THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE BANDING STRUCTURE AND THE
    EXPANSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGES
    SUGGEST THAT DEAN IS STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME. DEAN IS EXPECTED
    TO CARRY AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH IT...ON ITS WESTWARD TRACK
    ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING.
    ONCE DEAN REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVES OVER AN AREA OF
    VERY HIGH OCEAN HEAT...IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.
    THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND WITH DYNAMICAL
    GUIDANCE...MAINLY THE GFDL AND THE HWRF WHICH MAKE DEAN A VERY
    INTENSE HURRICANE.

    DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS. A STRONG
    AND DEEP ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED NORTH OF DEAN.
    THIS PATTERN WOULD PROVIDE A CONTINUED WESTWARD STEERING DURING THE
    NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS WITH SOME WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COMPONENT AS THE
    HURRICANE REACHES THE EDGE OF THE HIGH BY DAY FIVE. TRACK MODELS
    ARE IN OUTSTANDING AGREEMENT BRINGING THE HURRICANE ACROSS THE
    CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.

    THE FRENCH BUOY...41001...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50
    KNOTS. THIS INFORMATION HELPED WITH ESTIMATES OF THE WIND RADII.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 16/2100Z 14.0N 56.5W 85 KT
    12HR VT 17/0600Z 14.4N 59.7W 90 KT
    24HR VT 17/1800Z 15.0N 63.5W 95 KT
    36HR VT 18/0600Z 15.5N 67.0W 100 KT
    48HR VT 18/1800Z 16.0N 70.5W 110 KT
    72HR VT 19/1800Z 17.5N 78.0W 115 KT
    96HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 84.5W 120 KT
    120HR VT 21/1800Z 22.0N 90.5W 90 KT



    HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14

    Published on August 16, 2007 4:48 PM | Comments

    Watches and warnings - looks like Martinique, Guadeloupe, St. Lucia and Dominica have the most to worry about in the short term.

    HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 2100 UTC THU AUG 16 2007

    AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A
    HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA
    AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
    ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
    PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
    COMPLETION.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS
    OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST.
    VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
    MONSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA AND ST. MAARTEN.
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
    FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
    MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
    AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA
    AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 56.5W AT 16/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
    EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
    64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
    50 KT....... 50NE 15SE 20SW 50NW.
    34 KT.......120NE 75SE 60SW 130NW.
    12 FT SEAS..300NE 90SE 60SW 150NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 56.5W AT 16/2100Z
    AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 55.5W

    FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.4N 59.7W
    MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
    64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
    50 KT... 50NE 15SE 15SW 50NW.
    34 KT...120NE 75SE 60SW 130NW.

    FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.0N 63.5W
    MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
    64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
    50 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.
    34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 125NW.

    FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.5N 67.0W
    MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
    64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
    50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
    34 KT...125NE 90SE 75SW 125NW.

    FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.0N 70.5W
    MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
    50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
    34 KT...130NE 90SE 75SW 125NW.

    FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.5N 78.0W
    MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
    50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
    34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N 84.5W
    MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

    OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 90.5W
    MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 56.5W



    HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 14

    Published on August 16, 2007 4:45 PM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 PM AST THU AUG 16 2007

    ...HURRICANE DEAN RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH 100
    MPH WINDS...

    AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A
    HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA
    AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
    ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
    PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
    COMPLETION.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS
    OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST.
    VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
    MONSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA AND ST. MAARTEN.
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
    FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
    MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
    AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA
    AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES...
    335 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 305 MILES...490 KM...
    EAST OF MARTINIQUE.

    DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
    MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ON THIS
    TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES
    EARLY FRIDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
    KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
    SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
    GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
    FORECAST BEFORE THE HURRICANE REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER. DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41040...THE FRENCH BUOY 41101 AND A
    NEW STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER INSTRUMENT ON THE AIR
    FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE
    WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM...FROM THE CENTER.

    THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM AN AIR FORCE
    RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

    STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
    ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
    NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.

    STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
    AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
    ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
    FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

    REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...14.0 N...56.5 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.



    HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A

    Published on August 16, 2007 4:07 PM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 200 PM AST THU AUG 16 2007

    ... AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REACHES HURRICANE DEAN...

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA
    AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
    ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
    PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
    COMPLETION.

    A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE...
    GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
    HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
    WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE INDICATES THAT A
    HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
    MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS
    OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST.
    VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
    MONSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA AND ST. MAARTEN.
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER
    TODAY.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
    PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
    OF DEAN.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES...
    440 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 365 MILES...590 KM...EAST OF
    MARTINIQUE.

    DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
    MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF
    DEAN WILL BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY FRIDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    HURRICANE SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY
    OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
    THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A NEW STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER
    INSTRUMENT ON BOARD OF THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST
    MEASURED 90 MPH...150 KM/HR SURFACE WINDS WHILE MAKING ITS FIRST
    ENTRANCE TO THE HURRICANE.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER. DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41040 INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM
    FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE
    CENTER.

    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
    AIRCRAFT WAS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

    STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
    ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
    NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.

    STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
    AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
    ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
    FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

    REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...13.8 N...55.5 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.



    HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13

    Published on August 16, 2007 11:10 AM | Comments

    The latest watches and warnings.

    HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1500 UTC THU AUG 16 2007

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA
    AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
    ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
    PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
    COMPLETION.

    A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE...
    GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
    HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
    WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE INDICATES THAT A
    HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
    MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

    AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS
    UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
    THE ISLANDS OF MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND
    BARBUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS.
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    AT 11 AM AST...THE BARBADOS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
    TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

    AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
    SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN
    HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA AND ITS
    DEPENDENCIES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
    CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
    HOURS.

    ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER
    TODAY.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
    ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
    OF DEAN.

    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 54.3W AT 16/1500Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
    EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 95 KT.
    64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
    50 KT....... 45NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
    34 KT....... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
    12 FT SEAS..300NE 90SE 60SW 150NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 54.3W AT 16/1500Z
    AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 53.3W

    FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.1N 57.4W
    MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
    64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
    50 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
    34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

    FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.6N 61.4W
    MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
    64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
    50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW.
    34 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.

    FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.1N 64.9W
    MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
    64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
    50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW.
    34 KT...110NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.

    FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.6N 68.4W
    MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
    50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
    34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

    FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W
    MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
    50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
    34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N 82.5W
    MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

    OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N 89.0W...INLAND
    MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 54.3W



    HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 13

    Published on August 16, 2007 11:09 AM | Comments

    HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 AM AST THU AUG 16 2007

    ...DEAN INTENSIFYING AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES...

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA
    AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
    ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
    PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
    COMPLETION.

    A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE...
    GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
    HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
    WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE INDICATES THAT A
    HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
    MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

    AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS
    UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
    THE ISLANDS OF MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND
    BARBUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS.
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    AT 11 AM AST...THE BARBADOS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
    TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

    AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
    SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN
    HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA AND ITS
    DEPENDENCIES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
    CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
    HOURS.

    ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER
    TODAY.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
    ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
    OF DEAN.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.3 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES...
    565 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 455 MILES...730 KM...EAST OF
    MARTINIQUE.

    DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
    MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF
    DEAN WILL BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY FRIDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER
    ELEVATED TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
    NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
    INVESTIGATE DEAN THIS AFTERNOON.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER. DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41010 INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM
    FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE
    CENTER.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

    STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
    ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
    NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.

    STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
    AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
    ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
    FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

    REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...13.7 N...54.3 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
    PM AST.



    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13

    Published on August 16, 2007 11:02 AM | Comments

    Dean is really getting organized now and the latest models are coming to a consensus that this will eventually be a Category 4 Hurricane (Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale).

    "Category 4: Winds 131-155 mph. Storm surge 13 to 18 feet above normal. Wall failures and roof collapses on small homes, and extensive damage to doors and windows. Complete destruction of some homes, especially mobile homes. Major coastal flooding damage. Hurricane Katrina was a Category 4 storm as was Hurricane Ivan."

    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

    DEAN IS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY. THE HURRICANE HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL
    CLOUD-FILLED EYE THIS MORNING ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE
    CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
    ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 77 KT...WHILE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE
    HIGHER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT. AN AIR FORCE
    RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL BE IN THE EYE OF DEAN LATER TODAY TO
    OBTAIN A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY. WIND AND MAXIMUM SEAS
    DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41010 WERE CRITICAL FOR THIS ADVISORY.

    THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
    PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE SHOULD
    CONTROL DEAN'S MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS RIDGE SHOULD
    FORCE THE HURRICANE ON A SPEEDY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL
    CARIBBEAN SEA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
    THROUGH ABOUT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE
    NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
    DEAN WILL REACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
    ATTEMPT TO MOVE MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AS WELL...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL. IT IS
    STALLING A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS...IN THE
    EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SOLUTION ALLOWS THE HURRICANE TO MOVE
    MORE TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
    SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE
    OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AT 120 HR IN
    DEFERENCE TO THE GFDL FORECAST.

    ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A LARGE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE AROUND
    DEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN COMBINATION WITH THE DEEP WARM
    WATER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...DEAN IS LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR
    HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST USES
    A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH DEVELOP THIS
    SYSTEM INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BY THE TIME
    IT REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

    THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV WILL CONDUCT A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION
    FOR THE 17/00Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 16/1500Z 13.7N 54.3W 80 KT
    12HR VT 17/0000Z 14.1N 57.4W 90 KT
    24HR VT 17/1200Z 14.6N 61.4W 95 KT
    36HR VT 18/0000Z 15.1N 64.9W 100 KT
    48HR VT 18/1200Z 15.6N 68.4W 105 KT
    72HR VT 19/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W 110 KT
    96HR VT 20/1200Z 18.5N 82.5W 120 KT
    120HR VT 21/1200Z 21.0N 89.0W 80 KT...INLAND



    Martinique

    Published on August 16, 2007 6:02 AM | Comments

    At this moment the latest storm track has Dean heading directly over Martinique. I am trying to find some local news sources but not having much luck. I can't find a working webcam either. The government pages I am finding don't seem to have any news yet about this potentially devastating hurricane. Here are some reference links:

    A local TV and Radio station - Reseau France Outre-mer (of course, this is in French)

    CaribbeanNetNews has a Martinique page (this is just news from wire services, mostly AFP, aggregated by them)

    Martinique destination page from FranceGuide.com

    Martinique from the Wikipedia



    Dean watches and warnings, 5 AM AST

    Published on August 16, 2007 5:39 AM | Comments

    AT 5 AM HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR:

    DOMINICA
    ST. LUCIA

    A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
    WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
    PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR:
    MARTINIQUE...
    GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
    SABA
    ST. EUSTATIUS.

    A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
    THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE OR TROPICAL
    STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS
    LATER THIS MORNING.

    AT 5 AM AST THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS
    ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS. A TROPICAL STORM
    WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
    THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    AT 5 AM AST THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS
    ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. VINCENT. A TROPICAL STORM
    WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
    MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
    AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.



    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12

    Published on August 16, 2007 5:36 AM | Comments

    Dean is now a hurricane and the models have it headed toward the Yucatan peninsula in about 5 days. The models also have it becoming a major hurricane with winds of up to 127 knots possible.

    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

    DEAN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL
    GLIMPSES OF AN EYE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CLOUD TOPS
    COLDER THAN -70C NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
    ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO DEAN IS UPGRADED TO THE FIRST
    HURRICANE OF THE 2007 HURRICANE SEASON.

    THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21. DEAN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
    DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO BUILD
    WESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS BUILDING RIDGE IS
    FORECAST TO PUSH ASIDE A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY EAST OF
    FLORIDA...AND SHOULD THIS HAPPEN THAT SYSTEM WOULD HAVE LITTLE
    INTERACTION WITH DEAN. THE PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD KEEP DEAN
    MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
    PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
    SCENARIO...AND THE MODELS ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A TRACK
    THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN FIVE
    DAYS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
    PREVIOUS PACKAGE....AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE VARIOUS
    CONSENSUS MODELS.

    THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE TO KEEP DEAN FROM STRENGTHENING THROUGH
    THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH
    115 KT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE THE EXPERIMENTAL LGE MODEL
    IS CALLING FOR 127 KT. THE GFDL CALLS FOR DEAN TO BECOME A MAJOR
    HURRICANE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...ALTHOUGH ODDLY ENOUGH IT
    CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE FIRST 60 HR OF THE
    FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED UPWARD FOR THE
    FIRST 96 HR IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.

    AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE
    INVESTIGATING DEAN THIS AFTERNOON..AND THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV
    WILL CONDUCT A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION FOR THE 17/00Z
    ANALYSIS CYCLE.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 16/0900Z 13.4N 52.3W 65 KT
    12HR VT 16/1800Z 13.9N 55.4W 70 KT
    24HR VT 17/0600Z 14.4N 59.4W 80 KT
    36HR VT 17/1800Z 14.9N 63.0W 90 KT
    48HR VT 18/0600Z 15.4N 66.5W 100 KT
    72HR VT 19/0600Z 16.5N 73.5W 105 KT
    96HR VT 20/0600Z 18.0N 80.5W 110 KT
    120HR VT 21/0600Z 20.0N 87.5W 115 KT



    ...DEAN BECOMES A HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...

    Published on August 16, 2007 5:32 AM | Comments

    Dean is now a hurricane - watches and warnings have been posted for, Dominica, St. Lucia, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Saba, and St. Eustatius and others. An intermediate advisory will be posted at 8 AM EST.

    HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 12...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 AM AST THU AUG 16 2007

    ...CORRECTED WARNINGS...

    ...DEAN BECOMES A HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...

    AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
    ISLANDS OF DOMINICA AND ST. LUCIA BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS.
    A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
    WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
    PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE...
    GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. A
    HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
    THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE OR TROPICAL
    STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS
    LATER THIS MORNING.

    AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS
    ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS. A TROPICAL STORM
    WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
    THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS
    ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. VINCENT. A TROPICAL STORM
    WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
    MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
    AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
    ISLAND...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
    OF DEAN.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.3 WEST OR ABOUT 485 MILES...
    780 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 590 MILES...950 KM...EAST OF
    MARTINIQUE.

    DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR...AND THIS
    MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION
    SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF DEAN NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES ON FRIDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
    HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
    INVESTIGATE DEAN THIS AFTERNOON.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
    MILES...110 KM.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

    STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
    ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
    NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.

    STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM
    AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
    ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
    FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

    REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...13.4 N...52.3 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
    AM AST.



    TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10

    Published on August 15, 2007 4:42 PM | Comments

    TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

    DEAN CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS
    HAVE WARMED RECENTLY...THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES
    INDICATE A TIGHTLY CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. AMSU AND
    TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE ALSO SUGGESTED THE FORMATION OF A
    PARTIAL EYEWALL. MOST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
    ESTIMATES ARE INCREASING...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS RAISED TO
    55 KT.

    THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SHIFTED MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE
    PAST SIX HOURS...AROUND 285/19. THIS MOVEMENT TOWARD THE
    WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AS DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING TO
    THE NORTH OF DEAN STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT...FORCING THE STORM ON MORE
    OF A WESTWARD COURSE TOMORROW. THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT
    ANY INTERACTION WITH A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
    BAHAMAS WILL BE LIMITED AS THAT FEATURE IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE
    WESTWARD AS AN INVERTED TROUGH WELL AHEAD OF DEAN. NUMERICAL TRACK
    GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...SHOWING THE
    STORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ABOUT 5
    DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH DURING
    THE FIRST 36 HOURS...BUT IS MUCH FASTER AND TO THE WEST OF THE
    PREVIOUS TRACK NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
    THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE NUMERICAL MODEL
    CONSENSUS.

    BASED ON WHAT WE THINK WE KNOW ABOUT INTENSITY CHANGE...THERE DO NOT
    SEEM TO BE TOO MANY INHIBITING FACTORS TO A FUTURE INTENSIFICATION
    OF DEAN. GLOBAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
    ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE AS THE SYSTEM TRAVELS
    INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN COMBINATION WITH VERY DEEP WARM
    WATERS...THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POWERFUL
    HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE
    PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF
    THE SHIPS...GFDL...HWRF...AND LGEM MODELS.



    TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 10

    Published on August 15, 2007 4:35 PM | Comments

    TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 PM AST WED AUG 15 2007

    ...DEAN INTENSIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

    A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
    ANTILLES LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER
    ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST OR ABOUT 910
    MILES...1465 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

    DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR...
    AND A MOTION BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 24 HOURS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
    KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
    DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DEAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
    TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...13.1 N...47.9 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
    MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.



    Tropical Storm Dean 11 AM Update, August 15

    Published on August 15, 2007 11:32 AM | Comments

    The 11 AM EST updates from the NHC basically are telling this story: Dean is small, but getting better organized and strengthening. The take away line from the forecast discussion is this:

    "THE GFDL/HWRF/SHIPS MODELS ALL FORECAST DEAN TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE BY DAY 5...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST."

    They also continue to move the track further south, while noting that the odds of that still being correct 72 hours from now are not that great. It will enter the Caribbean Sea as a hurricane however - that seems pretty certain at this point (as certain as you could be about the weather!).



    TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9

    Published on August 15, 2007 11:31 AM | Comments

    TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

    SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEAN HAS A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE
    OVERCAST CLOUD PATTERN. HINTS OF A BANDING EYE HAVE BEEN SEEN ON
    VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
    HAVE BEEN INCREASING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT IS A
    BLEND OF TAFB/SAB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KT AND AMSU/AODT
    ESTIMATES OF NEAR 55 KT.

    THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...275/17. A STRONG
    DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE LIES TO THE NORTH OF DEAN AND IS FORECAST TO
    REMAIN WELL-ESTABLISHED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NUMERICAL TRACK
    FORECAST MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM WILL
    MAINTAIN THE SAME GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
    BEYOND THREE DAYS...THE FATE OF THE STORM WILL BE PARTIALLY
    CONTROLLED BY A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS.
    THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF INTO A LOW AND HEAD WESTWARD
    UNDER A BUILDING SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES HIGH. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
    SHOWS THE LOW REMAINING FARTHER AWAY FROM DEAN WITH STRONGER
    RIDGING CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THAN IN
    PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR A MORE WESTWARD
    TRACK IN THE LONG-RANGE..AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED IN
    THAT DIRECTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST.

    STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE THE BEST BET AS
    VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT BY ALL MODELS AND SEA
    SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE STORM START TO RISE. THE ONLY
    NEGATING FACTOR TO INTENSIFICATION MIGHT BE THE ATMOSPHERIC
    STABILITY AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...INTENSITY
    GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DEAN WILL BE A HURRICANE BEFORE IT
    ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE GFDL/HWRF/SHIPS MODELS ALL
    FORECAST DEAN TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE BY DAY 5...AND SO DOES THE
    OFFICIAL FORECAST.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 15/1500Z 12.4N 46.0W 50 KT
    12HR VT 16/0000Z 12.7N 48.6W 55 KT
    24HR VT 16/1200Z 13.1N 52.2W 60 KT
    36HR VT 17/0000Z 13.7N 55.8W 65 KT
    48HR VT 17/1200Z 14.2N 59.2W 75 KT
    72HR VT 18/1200Z 15.5N 66.0W 85 KT
    96HR VT 19/1200Z 16.5N 72.0W 95 KT
    120HR VT 20/1200Z 18.0N 78.0W 105 KT



    ...DEAN STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Published on August 15, 2007 11:29 AM | Comments

    Dean is gaining strength:

    TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 9...RETRANSMITTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 AM AST WED AUG 15 2007

    ...DEAN STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
    DEAN.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1045
    MILES...1685 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

    DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS
    MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
    DEAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW.

    DEAN IS A RELATIVELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
    WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...12.4 N...46.0 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.



    Tropical Storm Dean 5 AM EST Update, August 15th

    Published on August 15, 2007 5:03 AM | Comments

    Good morning to the nearly 300 of you that have signed up for our alerts in the last two days. The 5 AM EST updates are out from the NHC and seemed to be saying that the conditions are in place for this storm to intensify. The various weather models that are monitored are not in agreement on the path (they never are - the NHC usually seems to take them all into account and come up with an average unless they have a strong opinion on something in particular) but in general it does seem to point to an even more westerly track, although a turn to the north can not be ruled out at some point. The forecast is for Dean to be a hurricane by 2 AM Friday. The current track makes it look like Martinique is in direct line of the storm at the moment, with perhaps Jamaica or Cuba in peril in another 5 or 6 days. A lot can happen in between though, but it is time to start planning if you are a Caribbean resident.



    TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8

    Published on August 15, 2007 5:01 AM | Comments

    TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

    THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DEAN HAS MORE OF A BANDED
    APPEARANCE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE BANDING IS NOT YET
    WELL-DEFINED. WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED...IT MAY BE
    THAT A COMBINATION OF DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE
    STORM AND INFLOW FROM OVER THE COOLER WATERS TO THE NORTH ARE
    SLOWING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. THE INITIAL
    INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE EARLIER
    QUIKSCAT DATA AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

    THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY UNCERTAIN 275/16...UNCERTAIN DUE TO
    AMSU MICROWAVE DATA HINTING THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF
    THE ADVISORY POSITION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEAN IS
    ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE... WITH A LARGE
    MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
    64W-77W. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH SHOULD
    GRADUALLY FILL DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH RIDGING PERSISTING
    NORTH OF DEAN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
    WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES IN THE
    MODEL GUIDANCE...AS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FROM
    A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE BAHAMAS TO A MORE WESTWARD
    MOTION THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. THE UKMET CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A
    GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION...WHILE THE GFS CALLS FOR A WEST-
    NORTHWESTWARD MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
    NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72
    HR...THEN SHIFTED A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER
    BASED ON THE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE. THE NEW
    TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE
    GFS.

    DEAN SHOULD ENCOUNTER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
    FORECAST TRACK...AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT
    DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR
    STEADY STRENGTHENING...AND SO DOES THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN BEST
    AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
    WINDS AND WARM WATER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT DEAN COULD BE
    NOTABLY STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 15/0900Z 12.2N 44.2W 45 KT
    12HR VT 15/1800Z 12.4N 46.6W 50 KT
    24HR VT 16/0600Z 12.8N 50.1W 55 KT
    36HR VT 16/1800Z 13.2N 53.7W 60 KT
    48HR VT 17/0600Z 13.8N 57.1W 70 KT
    72HR VT 18/0600Z 15.0N 63.0W 80 KT
    96HR VT 19/0600Z 16.0N 68.5W 90 KT
    120HR VT 20/0600Z 17.5N 74.0W 100 KT



    TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 8

    Published on August 15, 2007 5:00 AM | Comments

    TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 AM AST WED AUG 15 2007

    ...DEAN MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

    INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
    DEAN.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1170
    MILES...1880 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

    DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
    MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...12.2 N...44.2 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    1100 AM AST.



    Tropical Storm Dean 11 PM Update

    Published on August 15, 2007 3:27 AM | Comments

    It seems that Dean is getting a little more organized. It has also slowed, and the NHC has adjusted the track further south again. We are awaiting the 5 AM EST updates and will send out an alert as soon as we get them. Links to the 11 PM updates are below.



    Tropical Storm Dean's Future Uncertain

    Published on August 15, 2007 3:25 AM | Comments

    From the AP:

    NEW YORK - The National Hurricane Center said on Tuesday that Tropical Storm Dean is heading farther south and west than originally expected, and may end up in, or northwest of, the Caribbean.

    Investors are watching progress of the storm for potential impact it may have on oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico.

    Dean is moving westward at 20 knots in the subtropical area, the weather monitoring center said. Within 2 to 3 days, Dean will move farther west with a decrease in forward speed. At that point, the storm's future becomes "highly uncertain" because different storm-prediction software models show Dean heading in slightly different directions.



    TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7

    Published on August 15, 2007 3:21 AM | Comments

    TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007

    AFTER THE CONVECTION WANED THIS AFTERNOON...A NEW BURST HAS
    REDEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DESPITE THE
    SOMEWHAT RAGGED SATELLITE APPEARANCE AROUND 2100 UTC...A QUIKSCAT
    PASS AT THAT TIME DETECTED A RATHER WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH
    BELIEVABLE 45-50 KT WINDS. WITH A NOD TO THE SATELLITE
    PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT A POSSIBLY
    CONSERVATIVE 45 KT. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE QUIKSCAT DATA
    SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES.

    THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/16...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
    ADVISORY. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED AS DEAN IS
    EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
    FEW DAYS...SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
    GENERALLY AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO BUT WITH SOMEWHAT VARYING FORWARD
    SPEEDS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS FASTER THAN THE NOGAPS
    AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WHICH CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE INITIALIZING THE
    FORWARD MOTION OF DEAN. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE
    CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...HWRF AND GFS MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT
    IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THESE MODELS AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

    IT APPEARS THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING DEAN IS
    BEGINNING TO DECREASE. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A FAVORABLE
    ENVIRONMENT FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING AND THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY
    GUIDANCE BRINGS DEAN TO A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HOURS...AND NEAR THE
    MAJOR HURRICANE THRESHOLD BY DAY 5.

    THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 15/0300Z 12.0N 42.3W 45 KT
    12HR VT 15/1200Z 12.2N 44.8W 50 KT
    24HR VT 16/0000Z 12.4N 48.2W 55 KT
    36HR VT 16/1200Z 12.8N 51.7W 60 KT
    48HR VT 17/0000Z 13.4N 55.2W 70 KT
    72HR VT 18/0000Z 14.5N 61.0W 80 KT
    96HR VT 19/0000Z 16.0N 66.5W 90 KT
    120HR VT 20/0000Z 17.5N 71.5W 100 KT



    TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 7

    Published on August 15, 2007 3:18 AM | Comments

    TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 PM AST TUE AUG 14 2007

    ...DEAN A LITTLE STRONGER...

    INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
    DEAN.

    AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1295
    MILES...2085 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

    DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
    GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...12.0 N...42.3 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    500 AM AST.



    Tropical Storm Dean 5 PM Update

    Published on August 14, 2007 4:57 PM | Comments

    All the NHC updates are out - visit the home page for the links. Dean is tracking even more southerly now and the Virgin Islands look to be in much better shape on this run of the weather models than this morning - but that means that the DR is now in line. Of course it is still early, so let's hope for the best.



    TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6

    Published on August 14, 2007 4:56 PM | Comments

    TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007

    DEAN'S STRUCTURE HAS NOT IMPROVED DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
    HAS WANED AND REMAINS ESPECIALLY LIMITED IN THE NORTHEASTERN
    SEMICIRCLE...THOUGH THIS MAY BE A DIURNAL FLUCTUATION. BOTH TAFB
    AND SAB GAVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 OR 35 KT...WHILE AN AMSU PASS
    AT 1623 UTC SUGGESTED A SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER INTENSITY. GIVEN THE
    LACK OF CONVECTIVE VIGOR...THE INTENSITY OF DEAN IS KEPT AT 35 KT.

    INITIAL MOTION OF DEAN IS 265 DEGREES AT 18 KT...A BIT SLOWER THAN
    THE LAST ADVISORY. DEAN IS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE WHICH
    SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE
    NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST AND
    FASTER COMPARED TO THE 06 UTC RUNS...PERHAPS DUE TO A WEAKER AND
    LESS DIGGING TROUGH OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST BY DAY 5. THE
    OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE
    PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT REMAINS TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS OF
    THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF. COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS...TRACK
    SOLUTIONS FOR THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER BECAUSE THEY DO NOT
    APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON DEAN'S FAST INITIAL FORWARD SPEED.

    DEAN IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...IS
    OVER 27.5C SSTS...AND IS WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THE SHEAR
    SHOULD DROP WHILE THE SSTS WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO THE
    ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.
    THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE A CONSENSUS OF THE HWRF...
    GFDL...SHIPS...AND LGEM THROUGH 72 HR. THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY
    FORECAST RELIES PRIMARILY UPON THE GFDL AND LGEM MODELS. BY DAY
    5...DEAN IS FORECAST TO BE A STRENGTHENING HURRICANE AND COULD
    REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY THEN.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 14/2100Z 11.6N 41.0W 35 KT
    12HR VT 15/0600Z 11.7N 43.6W 40 KT
    24HR VT 15/1800Z 12.0N 46.9W 45 KT
    36HR VT 16/0600Z 12.3N 50.2W 50 KT
    48HR VT 16/1800Z 12.6N 53.5W 60 KT
    72HR VT 17/1800Z 14.0N 59.5W 70 KT
    96HR VT 18/1800Z 15.5N 64.5W 85 KT
    120HR VT 19/1800Z 17.5N 69.5W 95 KT



    TROPICAL STORM DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6

    Published on August 14, 2007 4:55 PM | Comments

    TROPICAL STORM DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 2100 UTC TUE AUG 14 2007

    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 41.0W AT 14/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
    34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
    12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 41.0W AT 14/2100Z
    AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 40.2W

    FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 11.7N 43.6W
    MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
    34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

    FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 12.0N 46.9W
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

    FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 12.3N 50.2W
    MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
    34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

    FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 12.6N 53.5W
    MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
    34 KT... 75NE 40SE 0SW 75NW.

    FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.0N 59.5W
    MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
    50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
    34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 100NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 15.5N 64.5W
    MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

    OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 17.5N 69.5W
    MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 41.0W



    TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 6

    Published on August 14, 2007 4:37 PM | Comments

    TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 PM AST TUE AUG 14 2007

    ...DEAN MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

    INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
    DEAN.

    AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1140
    MILES...1830 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
    ABOUT 1390 MILES...2235 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

    DEAN IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND
    THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
    HOURS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...11.6 N...41.0 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    1100 PM AST.



    Dean Watch

    Published on August 14, 2007 3:57 PM | Comments

    We added some new things to the site just now to try to help you follow this storm. Right on the home page you'll find 3 graphic links: the GOES Storm Floater (right now it is for Dean, but this satellite will change in the future to follow other storms), the 5 Day Cone from the NHC which shows the historical and forecast track of the storm, and the Caribbean Satellite shot from Yahoo!

    Also up above you always have the text links for the latest public advisory and tropical discussion. Updates from the NHC are due out at 5 PM EST and we will have them posted and send out an alert as soon as we get them.



    GOES Floater 1

    Published on August 14, 2007 2:51 PM | Comments

    This is the GOES Atlantic Floater 1 Infrared satellite - this image updates every 30 minutes. Refresh your browser for the latest image.



    Plymouth State Weather Center Dean Tracking Map

    Published on August 14, 2007 12:36 PM | Comments

    Here is a good simple tracking map for Dean from the Plymouth State Weather Center:

    hur_plot_nt4.gif

    Click the map for the latest info.



    TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5

    Published on August 14, 2007 12:29 PM | Comments

    Full discussion below the fold. This is the 11 AM EST discussion. Updates to the discussion and the latest advisory will be out at 5 PM EST.

    TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007

    SATELLITE IMAGES...MICROWAVE DATA AND QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS INDICATE
    THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS AND ALSO THAT
    THE CENTER IS LOCATED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY
    INDICATED. DEAN HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OVER
    THE CENTER BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS STILL LOCATED TO THE WEST
    AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS CONFINED TO THE WEST AND
    SOUTHWEST SINCE THE CYCLONE IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN EASTERLY
    SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND MOST OF THE INTENSITY
    GUIDANCE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS DEAN. IN FACT...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
    SUGGESTS THAT DEAN COULD BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES AS A HURRICANE
    WITH 100 TO 110 KNOTS IN FIVE DAYS.

    DEAN APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD OR 265 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS AROUND
    THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS EXPANDING
    WESTWARD. IN THE SHORT TERM...2 TO 3 DAYS...DEAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO
    MOVE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
    SPEED. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE
    SOME RELIABLE MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND KEEP
    THE CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND OTHERS SHOW A
    WEAKER RIDGE RESULTING IN A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE
    OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AND IS A LITTLE BIT TO THE
    SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...DUE TO THE REPOSITIONING OF THE
    CENTER...AND NOT BECAUSE WE HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST REASONING.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 14/1500Z 11.7N 39.4W 35 KT
    12HR VT 15/0000Z 11.8N 42.0W 40 KT
    24HR VT 15/1200Z 11.8N 45.6W 45 KT
    36HR VT 16/0000Z 11.8N 48.5W 50 KT
    48HR VT 16/1200Z 12.0N 51.5W 60 KT
    72HR VT 17/1200Z 13.5N 56.5W 70 KT
    96HR VT 18/1200Z 15.5N 61.0W 80 KT
    120HR VT 19/1200Z 17.5N 65.0W 95 KT



    TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 5

    Published on August 14, 2007 12:25 PM | Comments

    TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 14 2007 ...DEAN FORMS IN THE DEEP TROPICS...MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES...

    INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
    DEAN.

    AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1030
    MILES...1660 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
    ABOUT 1490 MILES...2400 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

    DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
    MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
    HOURS.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
    MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...11.7 N...39.4 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.



    5-Day Cone for Tropical Storm Dean

    Published on August 14, 2007 10:51 AM | Comments



    Tropical Storm Dean

    Published on August 14, 2007 10:46 AM | Comments

    TD 4 is now Tropical Storm Dean - the latest forecast discussion from the NHC:

    TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007

    SATELLITE IMAGES...MICROWAVE DATA AND QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS INDICATE
    THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS AND ALSO THAT
    THE CENTER IS LOCATED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY
    INDICATED. DEAN HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OVER
    THE CENTER BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS STILL LOCATED TO THE WEST
    AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS CONFINED TO THE WEST AND
    SOUTHWEST SINCE THE CYCLONE IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN EASTERLY
    SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND MOST OF THE INTENSITY
    GUIDANCE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS DEAN. IN FACT...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
    SUGGESTS THAT DEAN COULD BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES AS A HURRICANE
    WITH 100 TO 110 KNOTS IN FIVE DAYS.

    DEAN APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD OR 265 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS AROUND
    THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS EXPANDING
    WESTWARD. IN THE SHORT TERM...2 TO 3 DAYS...DEAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO
    MOVE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
    SPEED. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE
    SOME RELIABLE MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND KEEP
    THE CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND OTHERS SHOW A
    WEAKER RIDGE RESULTING IN A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE
    OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AND IS A LITTLE BIT TO THE
    SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...DUE TO THE REPOSITIONING OF THE
    CENTER...AND NOT BECAUSE WE HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST REASONING.

    They have changed the track a bit to further south - heading (at this point) straight at Puerto Rico.