Caribbean-On-Line's Caribbean Hurricane Blog



Hurricane Felix

Hurricane Felix Strikes Central America

Published on September 4, 2007 4:28 PM | Comments

TEGUCIGALPA, Honduras, Sept. 4 Hurricane Felix, at powerful Category 5 strength, struck the Caribbean coast of Central America early today, beginning a slow and potentially deadly march across Honduras, where residents braced not just for 160-mile-an-hour winds and heavy rains but also the mudslides and flooding that were expected to follow.

More here from the NY Times.



HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 17

Published on September 4, 2007 4:27 PM | Comments

HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 04 2007

FELIX IS NOW INLAND AND WEAKENING OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA. THE ESTIMATED LANDFALL INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE IS 140
KT. THIS IS BASED ON THE FACT THAT AIRCRAFT DATA SUPPORTED 135 KT
AT AROUND 07Z...AND AFTER THAT TIME THE EYE BECAME MORE DISTINCT
AND THE SURROUNDING CLOUD TOPS COOLED...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN
OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS OF 0.3. CURRENT INTENSITY AND CENTRAL PRESSURE
ARE BASED ON STANDARD INLAND WEAKENING AND FILLING RATES OVER THE 3
HOURS SINCE LANDFALL. THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING OVER EXTREMELY
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...SO THE RATE OF
WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE MORE RAPID THAN INDICATED BY
THE STANDARD INLAND DECAY MODEL.

THE MAJOR CONCERN NOW SHIFTS TO THE THREAT OF TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 25
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. PERSONS LIVING IN FLOOD-PRONE AREAS SHOULD
TAKE ALL PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF FELIX SHOULD MAINTAIN A MOSTLY
WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 14.3N 83.9W 105 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 14.3N 85.7W 60 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 05/1200Z 14.5N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 06/0000Z 15.0N 90.0W 20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED



HURRICANE FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17

Published on September 4, 2007 4:25 PM | Comments

HURRICANE FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 1500 UTC TUE SEP 04 2007

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NICARAGUA FROM PUERTO CABEZAS
NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...AND FOR HONDURAS FROM
LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS WEST OF LIMON...FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF
BELIZE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH
OF PUERTO CABEZAS TO PRINZAPOLKA...AND FOR HONDURAS FROM WEST OF
LIMON TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER...INCLUDING ISLAS DE LA
BAHIA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 83.9W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 210SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 83.9W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 83.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.3N 85.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.5N 88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.0N 90.0W...INLAND...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED



HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A

Published on September 4, 2007 4:24 PM | Comments

HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 200 PM EDT TUE SEP 04 2007

...FELIX CONTINUES MOVING OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...REMAINS A
MAJOR FLOOD THREAT...

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR NICARAGUA.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ADJUSTED ITS
WATCHES AND WARNINGS AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE COAST OF HONDURAS.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE TO A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FROM PLACENTIA VILLAGE TO THE GUATEMALA/BELIZE BORDER.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...125 KM...WEST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE
MOVING OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
OVER HONDURAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH TODAY.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 8 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR...WITH 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER MUCH OF
HONDURAS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. PERSONS IN FLOOD-PRONE
AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...14.2 N...84.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB.



HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 16

Published on September 4, 2007 6:36 AM | Comments

HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 04 2007

AFTER COMPLETING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT LAST NIGHT...FELIX HAS AGAIN
STRENGTHENED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...REPORTED BY A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT...HAS FALLEN TO 939 MB. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WAS 148 KT...CORRESPONDING TO 133 KT AT
THE SURFACE...AND A SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE BASED ON THE LOW-LAYER
MEAN WIND OF A DROPSONDE PROFILE WAS 132 KT. ANOTHER DROPSONDE
REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 147 KT...BUT THAT IS NOT LIKELY
REPRESENTATIVE OF A SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND. THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION HAS BEEN STEADILY BECOMING MORE IMPRESSIVE...INCLUDING
IN THE FEW IMAGES SINCE THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 07Z. SINCE THE
PRESSURE AND WIND DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE INDICATING
STRENGTHENING...AND GIVEN THAT OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM THE
MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES ARE APPROACHING 7.0...FELIX COULD
REACH CATEGORY FIVE STATUS AT ANY TIME PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

FELIX CONTINUES GENERALLY WESTWARD BUT APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN A
LITTLE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 270/14. THE EYE IS
ONLY ABOUT THREE HOURS FROM MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...LIKELY JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER WITH
HONDURAS. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FELIX SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS...SO A CONTINUED GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION
IS FORECAST WITH A SLOW BEND TO THE RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFDL AND GFS OVER HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA
THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT IT DOES NOT FOLLOW THOSE MODELS IN LATER
BRINGING FELIX OVER THE WATERS OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GIVEN
THAT THIS RELATIVELY SMALL HURRICANE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE
RUGGED TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE
COAST...AND DISSIPATION IS FORECAST AFTER 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...BUT IS A
LITTLE LOWER DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF FELIX. IT IS IMPORTANT TO
EMPHASIZE...THAT THIS WILL NOT BE JUST A COASTAL EVENT. VERY HEAVY
RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES COULD OCCUR
WELL INLAND AND MANY HOURS OR DAYS AFTER THIS MORNING'S LANDFALL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0900Z 14.3N 82.5W 135 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 14.3N 84.5W 85 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 05/0600Z 14.5N 86.6W 45 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 05/1800Z 14.9N 88.7W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 06/0600Z 15.4N 90.7W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 07/0600Z 16.5N 94.0W 20 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED



HURRICANE FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 16...CORRECTED

Published on September 4, 2007 6:35 AM | Comments

HURRICANE FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 16...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 04 2007

...CORRECTED TRACK PARAGRAPH...

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FELIX ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
THE NICARAGUA-HONDURAS BORDER...
...COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH JUST AS IT CROSSES THE
COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NICARAGUA FROM PUERTO CABEZAS
NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...AND FOR HONDURAS FROM
LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS WEST OF LIMON...FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF
BELIZE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ISLA DE
PROVIDENCIA....FOR NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS TO
PRINZAPOLKA....AND FOR HONDURAS FROM WEST OF LIMON TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER... INCLUDING ISLAS DE LA BAHIA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...
110 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A CONTINUED
WESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
FELIX WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA IN A FEW
HOURS...AND WILL PROCEED INLAND OVER NICARAGUA TODAY AND HONDURAS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW
NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELIX IS AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE
HURRICANE REMAINS OVER WATER...AND FELIX COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE
STATUS JUST PRIOR TO CROSSING THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
THIS MORNING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 939
MB...27.73 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING IN EXCESS OF 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NICARAGUA AND MUCH OF HONDURAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...14.3 N...82.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.



Sorry about the pace of the updates -

Published on September 3, 2007 6:05 AM | Comments

We are actually on vacation - on board a sail boat in the Mediterranean Sea - so updates will be spotty. Visit the National Hurricane Center home page for the latest notices, watches, and warnings.



HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 8

Published on September 2, 2007 11:11 AM | Comments

HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

FELIX IS A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE WITH A SYMMETRIC-APPEARING CLOUD
STRUCTURE AND STRONG UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW. THE EYE IS
BECOMING WELL-DEFINED ON VISIBLE IMAGES AND THE CURACAO RADAR IS
SHOWING A RATHER CLASSIC PRESENTATION...WITH THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL
PASSING WELL NORTH OF ARUBA. THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT EYE
PENETRATIONS BY HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT BUT BASED ON THE
INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED EYE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ADJUSTED...PROBABLY CONSERVATIVELY...TO 90 KT. THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN EXTREMELY LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND
TO MOVE OVER WATERS OF INCREASINGLY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT.
THEREFORE I SEE NO REASON WHY FELIX WILL NOT BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE LOGISTIC GROWTH EQUATION MODEL...LGEM...
VERSION OF SHIPS AND CALLS FOR CAT. 4 INTENSITY WITHING 36 HOURS.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE PURELY DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
VERY BULLISH ON THE STRENGTHENING OF FELIX SO FAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS JUST A SMIDGEN TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES...AROUND 285/16. THERE IS NO IMPORTANT CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST REASONING FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. GLOBAL MODEL
PREDICTIONS SHOW A DEEP LAYER RIDGE PERSISTING TO THE NORTH OF
FELIX...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE
HURRICANE'S TRACK OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST LOCATIONS. THE GFS SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THIS FEATURE COULD ERODE
THE HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND RESULT IN A MORE NORTHWARD
TRACK NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THIS ADVISORY
PACKAGE ONLY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IS MADE TO THE 96- AND
120-HOUR FORECASTS. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AT 3-5 DAYS. IN ANY EVENT IT
SHOULD BE RECALLED THAT THE AVERAGE TRACK ERRORS AT 4 AND 5 DAYS
RANGE FROM OVER 200 MILES TO NEARLY 300 MILES RESPECTIVELY...SO ONE
SHOULD NOT BE FOCUSING ON THE EXACT TRACK AT THESE EXTENDED RANGES.

THE RADII OF 12-FT SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE HAVE BEEN
EXPANDED BASED ON DATA FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 42059.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 13.2N 70.1W 90 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 13.7N 72.8W 100 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 14.4N 76.3W 110 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 15.1N 79.5W 120 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 15.8N 82.7W 125 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 17.0N 87.0W 120 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 19.0N 90.5W 70 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 07/1200Z 21.0N 94.0W 85 KT



HURRICANE FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8

Published on September 2, 2007 11:09 AM | Comments

HURRICANE FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 1500 UTC SUN SEP 02 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 70.1W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 40SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 70.1W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 69.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.7N 72.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.4N 76.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.1N 79.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.8N 82.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 19.0N 90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 21.0N 94.0W...GULF OF MEXICO
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 70.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z



HURRICANE FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 8

Published on September 2, 2007 11:07 AM | Comments

HURRICANE FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2007

...FELIX PASSING NORTH OF ARUBA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.1 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...
75 KM...NORTH OF ARUBA AND ABOUT 555 MILES...895 KM...SOUTHEAST OF
KINGSTON JAMAICA.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND FELIX COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
POSSIBLE MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES...THE PARAGUANA PENINSULA OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...13.2 N...70.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.



Aruba Readies for Hurricane Felix

Published on September 2, 2007 4:01 AM | Comments

From the AP:

ORANJESTAD, Aruba (AP) -- Residents stocked up on groceries, flashlights and plywood to board up windows and doors ahead of Hurricane Felix, which gathered strength early Sunday and was forecast to pass just north of the Dutch Caribbean island.

The storm was upgraded from a tropical storm to a Category 1 hurricane Saturday evening, becoming the second Atlantic hurricane of the season.

It had sustained maximum winds of at least 80 mph early Sunday. A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch were in effect for Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao.

At 2 a.m. EDT, Felix was centered about 45 miles northeast of Bonaire and 145 miles east of Aruba and was moving westward at about 18 mph, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Forecasters said satellite images showed Felix steadily expanding in size.

Earlier in the day Felix brought heavy rains and strong winds to Grenada as a tropical storm, snapping small boats loose from their moorings, temporarily knocking out local radio and TV stations and toppling utility lines. No injuries were reported.



Bucuti Beach Resort Webcam

Published on September 2, 2007 3:47 AM | Comments

One of the most reliable Caribbean webcams is at the Bucuti Beach Resort on Aruba - you may want to check it out today. Right now it seems stuck at 6:49 PM yesterday however - maybe they have lost power or connectivity already.



HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 6

Published on September 2, 2007 3:45 AM | Comments

Felix becomes a hurricane -

HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 01 2007

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 77 KT WINDS AT A FLIGHT
LEVEL OF 7500 FT...AND SURFACE WINDS AROUND 65 KT ON THE STEPPED
FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED THAT A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 993 MB AND A 30 N MI WIDE EYE. BASED ON THIS...
FELIX HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD BE
CONSERVATIVE.

FELIX HAS MOVED MORE WESTWARD FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 275/16. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE BUILDING WESTWARD THROUGH 72 HR...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP FELIX ON A COURSE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS TIME. AFTER
72 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SOMEWHAT DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND TROUGHING OVER TEXAS.
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A MORE WESTWARD MOTION
TOWARD SOUTHERN YUCATAN OR CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE GFDL HAS MADE
A SOUTHWARD SHIFT TO JOIN THEM. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS
CALLS FOR A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH THE UKMET AND GFDN BEING SOMEWHAT TO
THE SOUTH OF THAT. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE. IT IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH
72 HR DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 96 HR.

FELIX CURRENTLY HAS FAIR TO GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THUS...THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS
REASONS THAT FELIX SHOULD NOT STEADILY INTENSIFY UNTIL IT
APPROACHES CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
THAT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND EXPERIMENTAL LGE MODELS. THE
RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO CALL
FOR A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION...SO IT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISING IF FELIX WAS STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY 72 HR.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER 72 HR MAY BE DEPENDENT ON A
COMBINATION OF LAND INTERACTION AND EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...
BOTH OF WHICH ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT FELIX WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 12.7N 66.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 13.2N 69.6W 75 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 14.0N 73.2W 85 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 14.7N 76.6W 90 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 15.4N 79.7W 100 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 16.5N 84.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 18.0N 88.5W 110 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 07/0000Z 20.5N 92.5W 65 KT



HURRICANE FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6

Published on September 2, 2007 3:43 AM | Comments

HURRICANE FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 0300 UTC SUN SEP 02 2007

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DUTCH NETHERLAND
ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 66.9W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 75SE 40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 40SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 66.9W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 66.1W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.2N 69.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.0N 73.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.7N 76.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.4N 79.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.5N 84.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 18.0N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 20.5N 92.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 66.9W



HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A

Published on September 2, 2007 3:40 AM | Comments

...FELIX A LITTLE STRONGER AS ITS CENTER BEGINS TO PASS JUST NORTH
OF BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA...

HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 200 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2007

...FELIX A LITTLE STRONGER AS ITS CENTER BEGINS TO PASS JUST NORTH
OF BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN
THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.8 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...
70 KM...NORTHEAST OF BONAIRE AND ABOUT 145 MILES...235 KM...
EAST OF ARUBA.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A GENERAL
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF FELIX JUST
NORTH OF BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

REPORTS FROM A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW AT
LEAST 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY
ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
PLANE WAS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS OF VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO.

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...12.7 N...67.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.



"This kind of weather doesn't usually make it to Aruba"

Published on September 1, 2007 5:49 PM | Comments

"This kind of weather doesn't usually make it to Aruba so people are definitely worried," said store cashier Mark Werleman.

That is very true - the ABC islands - Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao -are traditionally considered "below" the hurricane belt, and the islands have been historically promoted that way by their tourism boards. This is a quickly growing and strengthening storm and looks like it will certainly become a hurricane soon - the only good news so far is that the current track of the storm doesn't have it making direct landfall on an island - but will be trouble for Belize and/or the Yucatan peninsula later in the week, as was Hurricane Dean.



TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 5

Published on September 1, 2007 5:41 PM | Comments

TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 500 PM EDT SAT SEP 01 2007

THE LAST AIRCRAFT PASS THROUGH THE STORM A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATED
MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 70 KT AND THE STEPPED FREQUENCY
MICROWAVE RADIOMETER (SFMR) SHOWED 60 KT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THUS
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT...AND COULD BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE AS HINTS OF AN EYE FEATURE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST APPEARS TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD. THE MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW FAST THE STORM WILL INTENSIFY. ALL OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW AN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE UPPER-ENVIRONMENT AND THE WATERS
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE VERY WARM. IT IS A LITTLE PUZZLING WHY THE
GFDL/HWRF ARE SO SLOW TO STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM. SO FAR...THE
STATISTICAL MODELS HAVE DONE VERY WELL WITH THIS STORM...AND THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE BELOW THE SHIPS/LGEM
MODELS. IT IS OF NOTE THAT PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION...
AS DIAGNOSED BY SHIPS...IS RATHER HIGH.

FELIX HAS RESUMED A MOTION OF 280/16 AFTER A BRIEF WESTWARD JOG THIS
MORNING. A PERSISTENT RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM SHOULD STEER
FELIX ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST HINGES ON HOW STRONG THE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UKMET/NOGAPS/GFDL/HWRF ALLOWS
A HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD NEAR FLORIDA
AND CAUSES A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF FELIX IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAINTAIN FELIX
ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. IN GENERAL THE GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH FROM SIX HOURS AGO...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION AS WELL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 12.7N 65.3W 60 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 13.1N 67.9W 70 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 13.8N 71.4W 75 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 14.5N 74.8W 80 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 15.2N 78.2W 90 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 16.3N 83.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 17.5N 88.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 19.5N 92.0W 65 KT



TROPICAL STORM FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5

Published on September 1, 2007 5:40 PM | Comments

TROPICAL STORM FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 2100 UTC SAT SEP 01 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 65.3W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 75SE 40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 65.3W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 64.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.1N 67.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.8N 71.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.5N 74.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.2N 78.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.3N 83.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 17.5N 88.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 19.5N 92.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 65.3W



TROPICAL STORM FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 5

Published on September 1, 2007 5:37 PM | Comments

TROPICAL STORM FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 500 PM AST SAT SEP 01 2007

...FELIX CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE
TONIGHT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST OR ABOUT 310
MILES...500 KM EAST OF ARUBA AND ABOUT 395 MILES...640 KM...SOUTH
OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...FELIX WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

DATA FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ON BOARD THE
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...PRIMARILY TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OFFSHORE
ISLANDS OF VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...12.7 N...65.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.



TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 4

Published on September 1, 2007 12:48 PM | Comments

TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 01 2007

RADAR IMAGES FROM MARTINIQUE INDICATED THE CENTER PASSED VERY NEAR
GRENADA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE ISLAND OBSERVING 1005 MB BEFORE THE
WEATHER STATION STOPPED REPORTING. SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE AND
RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT FELIX IS FORMING A SMALL INNER CORE WITH
TIGHTLY-WOUND BANDS AROUND THE CENTER. IN FACT...AN AIR FORCE PLANE
JUST MADE IT TO THE CENTER AND REPORTED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 69
KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 55 KT AT THE SURFACE...AND 55 KT WILL
BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

ALL ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS SUPPORT A CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM. WITH SUCH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...IT
IS LIKELY THAT FELIX WILL BECOME A POWERFUL HURRICANE BY THE TIME
IT REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFDL/HWRF ONLY
SLOWLY INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM...BUT THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS SUGGEST
THIS STORM COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST GOES WITH THE LATTER SCENARIO AND IS JUST A
LITTLE LOWER THAN THE STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

FELIX HAS BEEN MOVING BASICALLY TO WEST FOR THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AND
MY INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/16. A STRONG RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO STEER THE STORM A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. BEYOND
3 DAYS...THERE IS A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW MODELS HAVE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE TO FORCE A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST MOTION NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE RELIABLE GFS/ECMWF ARE KEEPING A STRONG
RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE WESTWARD MOTION EARLY ON...BUT THEN
IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 12.3N 63.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 12.8N 66.1W 60 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 13.4N 69.4W 65 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 14.1N 72.9W 70 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 14.8N 76.2W 80 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 16.0N 82.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 17.0N 87.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 18.5N 91.5W 55 KT...INLAND



TROPICAL STORM FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4

Published on September 1, 2007 12:47 PM | Comments

TROPICAL STORM FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 1500 UTC SAT SEP 01 2007

AT 8 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA IS
DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO PEDERNALES INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF
MARGARITA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 63.6W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 63.6W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 62.8W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.8N 66.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.4N 69.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.1N 72.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.8N 76.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 60SE 60SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.0N 82.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 17.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 18.5N 91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 63.6W



TROPICAL STORM FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 4

Published on September 1, 2007 12:46 PM | Comments

TROPICAL STORM FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 01 2007

...FELIX MOVING AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND STRENGTHENING...

AT 8 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA IS
DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO PEDERNALES INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF
MARGARITA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 455
MILES...730 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
600 MILES...965 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...FELIX WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELIX COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON
SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 7
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS OF VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
ISLANDS OF ARBUA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...12.3 N...63.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.



Tropical Storm Felix Forms in Caribbean, Heads West

Published on September 1, 2007 7:11 AM | Comments

From Bloomberg News:

Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Tropical Storm Felix formed near the Caribbean island of Grenada, becoming the sixth named storm of the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane season.

The system's maximum sustained winds strengthened to almost 40 miles (64 kilometers) per hour from 35 mph, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said in an advisory on its Web site at 5 a.m. Miami time today. The threshold for a tropical storm is 39 mph.

Felix was about 30 miles northwest of Grenada and was moving west at 18 mph at 5 a.m., the hurricane center said. Felix over the next five days may strengthen into a hurricane, with winds of at least 74 mph, as it tracks across the Caribbean, brushing Honduras before making landfall in Belize on Sep. 5, according to the center's five-day forecast.



Hurricane Felix Open Thread

Published on September 1, 2007 7:06 AM | Comments

Use this post to ask questions about and discuss Tropical Storm Felix.



Hurricane Felix 5 day cone

Published on September 1, 2007 7:00 AM | Comments



TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 3

Published on September 1, 2007 6:58 AM | Comments

TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 500 AM EDT SAT SEP 01 2007

THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONSOLIDATED SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NOW FOCUSED ON A CLUSTER
VERY NEAR THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATION. SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK T NUMBERS REMAIN 2.5...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
IS RAISED TO 35 KT...SO THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM FELIX. RADAR IMAGERY FROM MARTINIQUE DEPICTS ROTATION IN THE
REFLECTIVITIES...WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAVING JUST RECENTLY
PASSED OVER GRENADA. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THIS RELATIVELY
SMALL STORM IS WELL-ESTABLISHED...AND GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE
WEAK-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT TO PERSIST OVER FELIX ALONG ITS PATH ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ACCORDINGLY...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS
FORECAST STRENGTHENING...WITH BOTH SHIPS AND LGEM CALLING FOR FELIX
TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN 48 HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY
FORECASTS COULD NOT BE MUCH MORE IN DISAGREEMENT...WITH GFDL
FORECASTING A HURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS AND HWRF BARELY CALLING FOR
FELIX TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ROUGHLY A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL AND IS SLIGHTLY
MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FELIX HAS SPED UP A LITTLE AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW
280/16. MUCH LIKE DEAN LAST MONTH...FELIX IS FORECAST BY NEARLY
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE TO MOVE IN ALMOST A STRAIGHT LINE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. THE MODELS ARE ALSO ARRANGED IN A SIMILAR MANNER AS
DURING MUCH OF DEAN...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GFS AND ECMWF TO THE SOUTH. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS GIVEN
THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FELIX IS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD...SO THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH REASON FOR THE TRACK
OF FELIX TO BEND MUCH IF AT ALL TO THE NORTH. THIS NEW FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY....IF ANYTHING NUDGED TO THE
SOUTH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0900Z 12.4N 62.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 12.8N 64.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 13.4N 67.7W 50 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 14.1N 71.2W 60 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 14.6N 74.6W 70 KT
72HR VT 04/0600Z 15.5N 81.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 05/0600Z 16.5N 86.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 06/0600Z 18.0N 91.0W 50 KT...INLAND



TROPICAL STORM FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 3

Published on September 1, 2007 6:56 AM | Comments

TROPICAL STORM FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 500 AM AST SAT SEP 01 2007

...SIXTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2007 ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
AND ARUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA... BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TOBAGO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...AND FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO PEDERNALES INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF
MARGARITA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST OR ABOUT 30
MILES... 45 KM...NORTHWEST OF GRENADA.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...FELIX WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND WILL BE PASSING NEAR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE FELIX LATER THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75
KM...TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
7 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...12.4 N...62.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.



TROPICAL STORM FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3

Published on September 1, 2007 6:55 AM | Comments

TROPICAL STORM FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 0900 UTC SAT SEP 01 2007 AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND ARUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF ARUBA... BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 5 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TOBAGO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO PEDERNALES INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF MARGARITA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 62.0W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 62.0W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 61.2W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.8N 64.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.4N 67.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.1N 71.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.6N 74.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.5N 81.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 16.5N 86.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 18.0N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 62.0W


Tropical Storm Felix

Published on September 1, 2007 6:52 AM | Comments

Oh my - I guess I was asleep at the switch preparing for my own vacation. A new Tropical Storm has popped up in the Caribbean basin - Tropical Storm Felix. We will be posting updates immediately.