November 2, 2007
Tropical Storm Noel satellite image
Click on the image for the full size version:
Hurricane Noel Expands, Heads North Over Atlantic
From Bloomberg:
Noel is now clear of the Caribbean which means we most likely won't be sending out any more alerts. We will be tracking and posting about conditions and relief news as it pertains to the Caribbean.
Tropical Storm Noel - Situation Report #2
Message: Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Noel affect Bahamas and Jamaica
THE EVENT:
Tropical Storm Noel (now upgraded to Hurricane Noel) began affecting the CDERA Participating States of Jamaica, Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas from Monday October 29, 2007. The system has also caused severe damage, flooding and loss of life in Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
Hurricane Noel moved across the Bahamas on Thursday November 1, 2007 as a strong Tropical Storm and was upgraded to a Category 1 Hurricane as it entered the Atlantic Ocean.
The heavy rains associated with this system caused severe flooding to the Bahamas and Jamaica.
THE BAHAMAS
Response Actions
The National Emergency Management Agency has reported that initial damage assessment teams are being deployed to the affected areas to assess and ascertain needs.
Two reconnaissance flights were dispatched this morning to enable an aerial view of damages that may have occurred on Exuma, Long Island, Eleuthera, Acklins, Cat Island, San Salvador and Rum Cay.
A naval vessel from the Royal Bahamas Defence Force is expected to sail to islands in Central Bahamas today.
NEMA has also secured the Mail Boat Service to assist in bringing relief to affected areas.
Casualities
One confirmed death reportedly by drowning on the Island of Exuma.
Airport
The International Airport has been reopened for regular commercial flights
All other air strips are operational except for Deadman’s Cay which is closed.
Stella Maris is open but the immediate surrounding areas are flooded.
Telephone & Electricity
Power supply was shut down for safety reasons. Telephone and electrical services have been restored to many areas of Long Island.
Restoration has been on going to areas that were affected namely Abaco and Cat Island, Staniard Creek, Andros and Great Harbour Cay.
Health
Environmental Safety Officers are on standby to monitor any food contamination issues as a result of flooding.
Shelters
Shelters are now closed
Needs
Needs are being addressed locally at this time.
NEMA is organizing shipments of food and bottled water, hygiene kits and equipment for distribution to the affected areas.
JAMAICA
The Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM) has reported flooding, landslides and blocked roads as a result of the heavy rains which affected the island yesterday Thursday November 1, 2007. Reports from St. Andrew indicated the following:
A landslide blocked the Gordon Town main road and the alternative route was also impassable.
Residents of the Kintyre community were marooned as the bridge leading out of the community had collapsed. The alternative route via Gordon Town Road was also blocked by a landslide.
The community of Irish Town was marooned as a result of landslides along the main roadway within the surrounding communities of Junapahill and Windsor.
Landslide and flooding occurred in the community of Harbour View, specifically along Harbour Drive.
Landslides occurred along the Bloxburgh road in the vicinity of Bito and Alderstad
Shelters
The Tavern Community Centre in St. Andrew is reportedly open and is currently sheltering three persons: two adults and one child from the communities of Tavern and Mud Town.
REGIONAL RESPONSE:
The Regional Response Mechanism remains on Standby.
The CDERA Coordinating Unit continues to monitor the impact of Hurricane Noel and stands ready to provide assistance if warranted.
Contact Details: The CDERA CU 24hr contact number is 246 425 0386
HURRICANE NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 70 KT...BASED ON AN SFMR REPORT OF 69
KT ABOUT 45 NMI NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF
NOEL IS DETERIORATING RAPIDLY...HOWEVER...WITH DEEP CONVECTION
EVAPORATING OVER THE CENTER. THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AT 12Z STILL
SHOWED A DISTINCT WARM CORE AT 700 MB...AND CO-LOCATED SURFACE AND
700 MB CENTERS...SO NOEL REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW. IF
THE CORE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECAY AT ITS PRESENT RATE...NOEL
WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING. WHILE NOEL MIGHT WEAKEN A LITTLE BIT AS THE CORE DECAYS
OVER 26C WATERS...THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME
STRENGTHENING AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/15...WHICH IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS MOTION. NOEL REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A STRONG SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS TROUGH DIGS IN
BEHIND NOEL...A RETURN TO THE PREVIOUS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD HEADING
IS EXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41047 WERE USED TO EXPAND THE 50
KT WIND RADII IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/1500Z 29.2N 73.8W 70 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 32.5N 71.5W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 03/1200Z 37.1N 69.7W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 04/0000Z 41.8N 66.9W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 04/1200Z 47.5N 62.5W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 05/1200Z 58.0N 54.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 06/1200Z 67.0N 47.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
HURRICANE NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 24
...NOEL BEGINNING TO LOSE ORGANIZATION AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...NOEL BEGINNING TO LOSE ORGANIZATION AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.
INTERESTS ALONG THE U. S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD
SHOULD CONSULT STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NWS
FORECAST OFFICE. INTERESTS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER OF
ENVIRONMENT CANADA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST OR ABOUT 575 MILES...
925 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 425 MILES...685 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A TURN
BACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NOEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER
TODAY...BUT MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345
MILES...555 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE DATA WAS
981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE INCH
ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND 2 TO 4 INCHES....WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS TO 6 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...29.2 N...73.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
November 1, 2007
Tropical Storm Noel drenches Bahamas as Caribbean death toll rises
From the AP:
Noel equaled the deadliest storm of the Atlantic region this year and stands to surpass it. Hurricane Felix, a devastating Category 5 storm, killed 101 people when it lashed the Caribbean and slammed into the Nicaraguan and Honduran coasts in early September.
In the Bahamas, flooding from rainfall overnight forced some people to evacuate their homes on Long Island, in the southeastern part of the Atlantic archipelago, according to Carl Smith, director of the National Emergency Management Agency. There were no reports of injury or death in the Bahamas.
Tropical Storm Noel barrels toward Bahamas
From AFP:
The worst affected by Noel's wrath was the Dominican Republic, where 56 people were confirmed dead and dozens more were reported missing.
In Haiti, which shares the island of Hispaniola with the Dominican Republic, the death toll reached 34, officials said on Thursday. A further 14 people were listed as missing, and almost 2,000 homes were damaged.
In Cuba, 24,000 people evacuated their homes as the storm damaged homes and farmland.
The Bahamas, meanwhile, braced for a direct hit by Noel, which forecasters said could gain strength as it churns toward the islands. The northwestern part of the Atlantic archipelago was placed under a hurricane watch.
Residents boarded up their homes and stocked up on basic goods, as schools shut down and Bahamasair grounded its flights.
Forecasters warned Noel could dump as much as 38 centimeters (15 inches) of rain on the islands.
Even after the storm left the Caribbean basin for the Atlantic Ocean, the three countries slammed by Noel earlier in the week remained on high alert.
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
DATA PHONED IN FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING NOEL INCLUDE PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT AND
SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 51 KT. THESE DATA SUPPORT THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT. THE CENTER FIXES HAVE BEEN BOUNCING
ABOUT IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS...BUT OVERALL INDICATE THAT
THE TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST HAS BEGUN. THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 020/8.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ADVANCING TOWARD NOEL FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NOEL
NORTHNORTHEASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
HEADING BUT LESS SO ON THE SPEED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS
A GFS/GFDL/HWRF BLEND.
WITH THE RECENT JUMP OF THE CENTER CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION...THERE
IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS...BEFORE THE WIND SHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVE. HOWEVER...
BAROCLINIC ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.
AS NOEL IS EXPECTED TO EDGE AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON...IT SHOULD SOON BE POSSIBLE TO LOWER THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/1500Z 24.5N 77.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 25.8N 76.9W 60 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 28.4N 74.9W 55 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 32.0N 72.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 03/1200Z 36.0N 69.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 04/1200Z 46.0N 61.0W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 05/1200Z 56.5N 50.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 06/1200Z 67.0N 25.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
...NOEL PASSING OVER NASSAU AS IT ACCELERATES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...NOEL PASSING OVER NASSAU AS IT ACCELERATES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR NEAR
NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.
NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/HR...AND A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.
NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES IN THE BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 18 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...25.0 N...77.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.
October 31, 2007
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
THE CENTER OF NOEL DRIFTED WESTWARD FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND
MIDDAY...BUT RECENTLY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY...OR PERHAPS
MAKING A SMALL CYCLONIC LOOP...JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH COAST OF
CUBA. THE CENTER IS NOT AS WELL CONNECTED TO THE DEEP CONVECTION AS
IT WAS SEVERAL HOURS AGO...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES THAT
THE TWO WILL NOT COMPLETELY SEPARATE. INDEED...THERE WAS SOME
EVIDENCE IN THE RECON DATA AROUND 18Z THAT A SECOND VORTICITY
CENTER WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE SURFACE CENTER. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ADVANCING TOWARD THE CYCLONE...AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO INDUCE A NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION
OF NOEL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A GFDL/HWRF/GFS
BLEND...EXCEPT FOR BEING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT BASED ON FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR
DATA. THERE COULD BE SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES AND EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BEGINS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
NOEL WILL BECOME A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT HAVE
DECREASED BELOW GALE FORCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD OF NOEL HAS
EXPANDED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW
BRINGS TROPICAL STORM WINDS TO NEAR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
SINCE ANY SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN WINDS AT THE COAST WOULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME. WHILE A WATCH IS USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH
A LONGER LEAD TIME THAN A WARNING...IT ALSO CONVEYS THE
POSSIBILITY...AS OPPOSED TO THE EXPECTATION...OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS. BECAUSE THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...A WATCH IS MORE APPROPRIATE THAN A
WARNING. THE NEED FOR A WARNING WILL BE REASSESSED THIS EVENING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/2100Z 22.6N 78.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 23.5N 79.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 25.3N 78.1W 55 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 28.0N 76.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 31.5N 72.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 03/1800Z 39.0N 66.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 04/1800Z 49.0N 57.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 05/1800Z 60.0N 47.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 17
...NOEL LINGERING ALONG THE CUBAN COAST...TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...
AT 5PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH
OF OCEAN REEF TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 190
MILES...305 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 240 MILES...385
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.
NOEL HAS BEEN STATIONARY FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT A
GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.
NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER THE
BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. RAINS IN HISPANIOLA AND
CUBA ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...22.6 N...78.8 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...996 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
At least 59 killed in Tropical Storm Noel's Caribbean rampage
For all the hype and predictions this has been a pretty quiet season - and then a mere tropical storm causes this much tragedy:
Floods forced people to climb onto their roofs or to perch on trees in affected areas of the Dominican Republic, where at least 41 people were killed and another 38 were reported missing.
In one neighborhood of Santo Domingo, entire houses disappeared under the flood waters.
Noel barreled across the Dominican Republic on Sunday, and slammed Haiti the next day. On Wednesday, Noel's sequels continued to wreak havoc over Hispaniola, the island the two countries share, as the storm moved across Cuba, emerged in the Atlantic Ocean and targeted the Bahamas.
"The situation is still dangerous and the number of deaths could rise," said Luis Luna Palino, who heads the Dominican Republic's National Emergencies Center (CNE).
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
SURFACE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF NOEL IS
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA NEAR CAYO COCO. RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE AREA OF STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER AT THIS TIME. A SURFACE OBSERVATION AT CAYO COCO
SUGGESTS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 1000 MB...AND AN EARLIER
ASCAT OVERPASS SUGGESTS THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 KT.
NOEL HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE 12 HR
MOTION IS 330/6...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY EVEN BE MORE TOWARD
THE NORTH. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS IS AN EARLY START OF THE
FORECAST NORTHWARD TURN...OR IF IT IS A RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER.
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW FOUR POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR NOEL BASED ON
INTERACTIONS WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THE FIRST...SUPPORTED BY THE NOGAPS...THE GFDL...
AND THE HWRF...IS FOR NOEL TO RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES AND
BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE SECOND...SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...IS FOR AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO
FORM OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WHICH ABSORBS NOEL. THE THIRD...
SUPPORTED BY THE UKMET...IS FOR AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO FORM OFF
THE FLORIDA COAST WITH IT AND NOEL MOVING NORTHEASTWARD IN TANDEM.
THE FOURTH...SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF...IS FOR AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW
TO FORM OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND A WEAKENING NOEL BEING DRIVEN
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN BY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE FIRST SCENARIO...WITH NOEL
RECURVING INTO THE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR AND THEN
ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD. THE TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD OVERALL
AGREEMENT WITH THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.
ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE NOEL IS
EXPERIENCING 20-25 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...MUCH OF IT
DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. AS NOEL MOVES OFF CUBA...
THERE WILL BE A 24 HR OR SO PERIOD OF DECREASED SHEAR THAT COULD
ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING. AFTER THAT...INTENSIFICATION AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD STOP AS NOEL ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SHEAR AND
BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN FURTHER AFTER BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL...WITH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 60 KT.
THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS THAT CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF FLORIDA
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH
OVER THE U.S. EAST COAST AND NOEL...BUT ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM. SEE STATEMENTS FROM
NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/0900Z 22.1N 78.2W 35 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 31/1800Z 22.9N 78.7W 40 KT...OVER WATER
24HR VT 01/0600Z 23.9N 78.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 25.6N 77.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 28.0N 75.7W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 03/0600Z 35.0N 69.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 04/0600Z 44.0N 61.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 05/0600Z 54.0N 53.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 78.2W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 78.2W AT 31/0900Z...INLAND
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 78.1W...INLAND
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 22.9N 78.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.9N 78.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.6N 77.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.0N 75.7W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 60SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 35.0N 69.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...180NE 100SE 0SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 180SW 240NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 44.0N 61.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 54.0N 53.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 78.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
...NOEL NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
COAST OF CUBA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES...85 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 205
MILES...335 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU.
NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF NOEL OFF THE NORTHERN COAST
OF CUBA TODAY AND NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES OVER WATER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. GUANTANAMO BAY CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST
OF 43 MPH...69 KM/HR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. CAYO
COCO CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.
NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA....BRINGING TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS TO 20
TO 30 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA... ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...22.1 N...78.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.
Tropical Storm Noel Lashes Cuba, May Gain Strength
Noel may gain strength now that is has finally Cuba and has some open water - more from Bloomberg:
Noel had sustained winds of about 65 kilometers (40 miles) an hour and was located about 85 kilometers north-northwest of Camaguey, the center said in an advisory posted on its Web site shortly after 4:30 a.m. Miami time. The system was heading north- northwest at 11 kph and forecast to turn gradually north.
"This motion should bring the center of Noel off the northern coast of Cuba today and near the northwestern Bahamas tonight,'' the agency's forecasters said. "Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours after the center emerges over water.'' They advised residents of southern Florida to monitor the storm's progress.
Death toll reaches 43 as Tropical Storm Noel rages across Caribbean
From AFP:
After drenching Hispaniola, an island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Noel late Tuesday moved slowly across the Cuban interior.
It left at least 30 people dead and 15 reported missing in the Dominican Republic, and threatened to cause more floods and mudslides across the region, already drenched by weeks of rainfall
October 30, 2007
Tropical Storm Noel Photos
Some pictures of the storm from ABC news.
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR IMAGERY FROM CAMAGUEY CUBA...AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CLEARLY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF NOEL
REMAINS INLAND OVER EASTERN CUBA. PLENTY OF RAIN BANDS...
HOWEVER...STILL EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE...CONTINUING THE HEAVY RAINS FOR HISPANIOLA THAT HAVE
ALSO SPREAD INTO THE BAHAMAS. MY BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM
WINDS IS 40 KT...WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY BE OCCURRING IN THE BANDS
BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE NEXT AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS NOT SCHEDULED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT SINCE
THE CENTER OF NOEL WILL LIKELY SPEND THE DAY OVER LAND...AS THE
AIRCRAFT DO NOT TYPICALLY MAKE CENTER FIXES OVER LAND.
THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD OR 270
DEGREES AT ABOUT 10 KT...TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
AS THAT RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...NOEL SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD OFF OF CUBA AND
EVENTUALLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD. THE TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE IS
NOT AGREED UPON BY THE VARIOUS MODELS...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS
DOES NOT BRING NOEL BACK OVER WATER UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING...AND
NEITHER WILL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFICIAL
TRACK IS ALONG THE SAME PATH AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS
SLOWER DURING THE FIRST THREE DAYS.
THE FORECAST OF AN EXTENDED STAY OVER CUBA REQUIRES A LOWER
INTENSITY FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NOEL MIGHT WEAKEN A
LITTLE MORE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER LAND. ONCE IT EMERGES OVER
WATER AGAIN...IT COULD RESTRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE
BAHAMAS...BUT PROBABLY NOT AS MUCH AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
SINCE THE CIRCULATION WILL TAKE TIME TO BECOME REESTABLISHED. THE
CHANCES OF NOEL BECOMING A HURRICANE APPEAR LESS NOW...AND MOST OF
THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE DOES NOT FORECAST THIS TO OCCUR. NOTABLE
STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR...HOWEVER...ONCE NOEL BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.
THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ARE
NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE CIRCULATION OF NOEL. SEE STATEMENTS
FROM NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/1500Z 21.1N 77.4W 40 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 31/0000Z 21.4N 78.3W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 31/1200Z 22.5N 78.7W 40 KT...NEAR COAST OF CUBA
36HR VT 01/0000Z 24.0N 78.6W 50 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 01/1200Z 26.2N 77.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 32.5N 71.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 03/1200Z 39.0N 64.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 04/1200Z 46.5N 58.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...BUT
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO.
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 77.4W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 77.4W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 77.1W
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 21.4N 78.3W...INLAND OVER CUBA
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 22.5N 78.7W...NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.0N 78.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.2N 77.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 32.5N 71.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 150SE 0SW 150NW.
34 KT...200NE 250SE 0SW 250NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 39.0N 64.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 46.5N 58.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 77.4W
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
...NOEL WEAKENS A LITTLE OVER CUBA...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA...
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...BUT
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO.
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES... 60 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 270 MILES
...435 KM...SOUTH OF NASSAU IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND OVER
CUBA TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA
BY TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.
NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA... ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...21.1 N...77.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
Up to 21 dead, 33 missing after storm in Dominican Republic
From Dominican Today:
The COE says the 11 fatalities occurred in the country’s southern region although the newspaper Diario Libre says it confirmed the deaths of three more in the cities La Vega and four in Bonao, in the country’s central area. Radio reports also cite four deaths in Villa Altagracia.
COE president Luis Luna Paulino said the red alert continues for most provinces and reported 3,295 people evacuated, 1,010 of those taken to shelters.
Tropical Storm Noel grazes Cuba, heads for Bahamas
From Reuters:
By 8 a.m. EDT (1200 GMT), the center of the storm was located 35 miles (60 km) west-northwest of Holguin, Cuba, and its maximum sustained winds had dropped to 50 miles per hour (85 kph), the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.
Computer models showed the hurricane heading northwest toward Florida but making a sharp turn at some point to the northeast and swirling out over the Bahamas into the Atlantic.
The 14th named storm of the 2007 Atlantic storm season was not expected to strengthen significantly because of unfavorable wind conditions in the atmosphere. But the hurricane center forecast Noel would briefly become a minimal hurricane on its closest approach to southeast Florida.
October 29, 2007
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
Noel has caused damage and several deaths on Hispaniola. The storm is now northwest of that island and getting a little stronger. The forecast is a little all over the place, and this system could still cause some problems for The Bahamas and possibly Bermuda. It needs to be watched if you are traveling/live in the projected path.
THE CENTER OF NOEL EMERGED OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF HAITI
EARLIER TODAY...HAS SINCE BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT
325/13...AND IS NOW JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA. THE
CIRCULATION CENTER WAS TOO CLOSE TO LAND FOR THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO FLY DIRECTLY THROUGH THE CENTER...BUT
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SURFACE PRESSURE ESTIMATES ARE CONSISTENT
WITH A POSITION ESTIMATED FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 46 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 37 KT AT THE
SURFACE...WHILE SFMR ESTIMATES PEAKED A LITTLE HIGHER NEAR 50 KT.
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THESE ESTIMATES. THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND THE
STORM HAS A VERY SPRAWLING APPEARANCE...BUT PLENTY OF RAINBANDS
EXTEND WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...CONTINUING TO BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO HISPANIOLA.
THE MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND HAVE
GENERALLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT. DURING THE FIRST 48
HOURS...THE GFDL REMAINS THE EASTERN OUTLIER BUT HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHERS...WHILE THE GFS PROVIDES THE
WESTERNMOST TRACK. DURING THIS PERIOD NOEL SHOULD CONTINUE
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE. THEREAFTER...NOEL SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWARD AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW SOON THIS TURN
WILL MATERIALIZE AND HOW FAST NOEL WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA...PERHAPS
DUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE PREDICTED VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A WESTWARD SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ARE
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MODEST
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL
WESTERLY WIND SHEAR INCREASES...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED THEREAFTER
AS NOEL HEADS NORTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.
THIS FORECAST IS AGAIN IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM AND HWRF.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/2100Z 20.9N 74.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 22.4N 75.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 23.7N 77.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 31/0600Z 24.7N 78.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 31/1800Z 25.8N 79.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 02/1800Z 31.0N 73.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 03/1800Z 35.0N 68.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE
PROVINCES OF CAMAGUAY AND LAS TUNAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE
PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN.
AT 500 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 74.2W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......175NE 175SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 74.2W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 73.8W
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.4N 75.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.7N 77.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 24.7N 78.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 25.8N 79.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 31.0N 73.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 35.0N 68.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 74.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
...NOEL SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...AND EASTERN CUBA...
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE
PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY AND LAS TUNAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE
PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN.
AT 500 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM...NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT 215
MILES...340 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND IN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL SHOULD MOVE BETWEEN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.
NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO
RICO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN
HISPANIOLA...ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...20.9 N...74.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
Dominican Republic says at least 8 people killed in tropical storm Noel
Horrible news: