Caribbean-On-Line's Caribbean Hurricane Blog



Hurricane Noel

Tropical Storm Noel satellite image

Published on November 2, 2007 1:14 PM | Comments

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Hurricane Noel Expands, Heads North Over Atlantic

Published on November 2, 2007 1:10 PM | Comments

From Bloomberg:

Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Noel grew in size as the Atlantic season's deadliest storm passed over the ocean between the U.S. Southeast and Bermuda, heading for Nova Scotia.

Noel is now clear of the Caribbean which means we most likely won't be sending out any more alerts. We will be tracking and posting about conditions and relief news as it pertains to the Caribbean.



Tropical Storm Noel - Situation Report #2

Published on November 2, 2007 1:09 PM | Comments

Message: Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Noel affect Bahamas and Jamaica

THE EVENT:

Tropical Storm Noel (now upgraded to Hurricane Noel) began affecting the CDERA Participating States of Jamaica, Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas from Monday October 29, 2007. The system has also caused severe damage, flooding and loss of life in Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

Hurricane Noel moved across the Bahamas on Thursday November 1, 2007 as a strong Tropical Storm and was upgraded to a Category 1 Hurricane as it entered the Atlantic Ocean.

The heavy rains associated with this system caused severe flooding to the Bahamas and Jamaica.

THE BAHAMAS

Response Actions

The National Emergency Management Agency has reported that initial damage assessment teams are being deployed to the affected areas to assess and ascertain needs.

Two reconnaissance flights were dispatched this morning to enable an aerial view of damages that may have occurred on Exuma, Long Island, Eleuthera, Acklins, Cat Island, San Salvador and Rum Cay.

A naval vessel from the Royal Bahamas Defence Force is expected to sail to islands in Central Bahamas today.

NEMA has also secured the Mail Boat Service to assist in bringing relief to affected areas.

Casualities

One confirmed death reportedly by drowning on the Island of Exuma.

Airport

The International Airport has been reopened for regular commercial flights

All other air strips are operational except for Deadman’s Cay which is closed.

Stella Maris is open but the immediate surrounding areas are flooded.

Telephone & Electricity

Power supply was shut down for safety reasons. Telephone and electrical services have been restored to many areas of Long Island.

Restoration has been on going to areas that were affected namely Abaco and Cat Island, Staniard Creek, Andros and Great Harbour Cay.

Health

Environmental Safety Officers are on standby to monitor any food contamination issues as a result of flooding.

Shelters

Shelters are now closed

Needs

Needs are being addressed locally at this time.

NEMA is organizing shipments of food and bottled water, hygiene kits and equipment for distribution to the affected areas.

JAMAICA

The Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM) has reported flooding, landslides and blocked roads as a result of the heavy rains which affected the island yesterday Thursday November 1, 2007. Reports from St. Andrew indicated the following:

A landslide blocked the Gordon Town main road and the alternative route was also impassable.

Residents of the Kintyre community were marooned as the bridge leading out of the community had collapsed. The alternative route via Gordon Town Road was also blocked by a landslide.

The community of Irish Town was marooned as a result of landslides along the main roadway within the surrounding communities of Junapahill and Windsor.

Landslide and flooding occurred in the community of Harbour View, specifically along Harbour Drive.

Landslides occurred along the Bloxburgh road in the vicinity of Bito and Alderstad

Shelters

The Tavern Community Centre in St. Andrew is reportedly open and is currently sheltering three persons: two adults and one child from the communities of Tavern and Mud Town.

REGIONAL RESPONSE:

The Regional Response Mechanism remains on Standby.

The CDERA Coordinating Unit continues to monitor the impact of Hurricane Noel and stands ready to provide assistance if warranted.

Contact Details: The CDERA CU 24hr contact number is 246 425 0386



HURRICANE NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24

Published on November 2, 2007 1:05 PM | Comments

HURRICANE NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 1100 AM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007

THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 70 KT...BASED ON AN SFMR REPORT OF 69
KT ABOUT 45 NMI NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF
NOEL IS DETERIORATING RAPIDLY...HOWEVER...WITH DEEP CONVECTION
EVAPORATING OVER THE CENTER. THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AT 12Z STILL
SHOWED A DISTINCT WARM CORE AT 700 MB...AND CO-LOCATED SURFACE AND
700 MB CENTERS...SO NOEL REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW. IF
THE CORE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECAY AT ITS PRESENT RATE...NOEL
WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING. WHILE NOEL MIGHT WEAKEN A LITTLE BIT AS THE CORE DECAYS
OVER 26C WATERS...THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME
STRENGTHENING AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/15...WHICH IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS MOTION. NOEL REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A STRONG SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS TROUGH DIGS IN
BEHIND NOEL...A RETURN TO THE PREVIOUS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD HEADING
IS EXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41047 WERE USED TO EXPAND THE 50
KT WIND RADII IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 29.2N 73.8W 70 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 32.5N 71.5W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 03/1200Z 37.1N 69.7W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 04/0000Z 41.8N 66.9W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 04/1200Z 47.5N 62.5W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 05/1200Z 58.0N 54.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 06/1200Z 67.0N 47.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED



HURRICANE NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 24

Published on November 2, 2007 1:04 PM | Comments

...NOEL BEGINNING TO LOSE ORGANIZATION AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...

HURRICANE NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 1100 AM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007

...NOEL BEGINNING TO LOSE ORGANIZATION AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

INTERESTS ALONG THE U. S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD
SHOULD CONSULT STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NWS
FORECAST OFFICE. INTERESTS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER OF
ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST OR ABOUT 575 MILES...
925 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 425 MILES...685 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A TURN
BACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NOEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER
TODAY...BUT MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345
MILES...555 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE DATA WAS
981 MB...28.97 INCHES.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE INCH
ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND 2 TO 4 INCHES....WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS TO 6 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...29.2 N...73.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.



Tropical Storm Noel drenches Bahamas as Caribbean death toll rises

Published on November 1, 2007 2:32 PM | Comments

From the AP:

NASSAU, Bahamas (AP) - Tropical Storm Noel drenched the Bahamas on Thursday while in the storm's wake rescuers in the Dominican Republic headed out in boats and helicopters to reach dozens of communities stranded by floods and mudslides. The death toll in the Caribbean rose to 101.

Noel equaled the deadliest storm of the Atlantic region this year and stands to surpass it. Hurricane Felix, a devastating Category 5 storm, killed 101 people when it lashed the Caribbean and slammed into the Nicaraguan and Honduran coasts in early September.

In the Bahamas, flooding from rainfall overnight forced some people to evacuate their homes on Long Island, in the southeastern part of the Atlantic archipelago, according to Carl Smith, director of the National Emergency Management Agency. There were no reports of injury or death in the Bahamas.



Tropical Storm Noel barrels toward Bahamas

Published on November 1, 2007 2:30 PM | Comments

From AFP:

SANTO DOMINGO (AFP) — Deadly Tropical Storm Noel barreled toward the Bahamas Thursday and could strengthen into a full-blown hurricane following its rampage through the Caribbean where it killed at least 90 people.

The worst affected by Noel's wrath was the Dominican Republic, where 56 people were confirmed dead and dozens more were reported missing.

In Haiti, which shares the island of Hispaniola with the Dominican Republic, the death toll reached 34, officials said on Thursday. A further 14 people were listed as missing, and almost 2,000 homes were damaged.

In Cuba, 24,000 people evacuated their homes as the storm damaged homes and farmland.
The Bahamas, meanwhile, braced for a direct hit by Noel, which forecasters said could gain strength as it churns toward the islands. The northwestern part of the Atlantic archipelago was placed under a hurricane watch.

Residents boarded up their homes and stocked up on basic goods, as schools shut down and Bahamasair grounded its flights.

Forecasters warned Noel could dump as much as 38 centimeters (15 inches) of rain on the islands.
Even after the storm left the Caribbean basin for the Atlantic Ocean, the three countries slammed by Noel earlier in the week remained on high alert.



TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20

Published on November 1, 2007 2:28 PM | Comments

TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 1100 AM EDT THU NOV 01 2007

DATA PHONED IN FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING NOEL INCLUDE PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT AND
SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 51 KT. THESE DATA SUPPORT THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT. THE CENTER FIXES HAVE BEEN BOUNCING
ABOUT IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS...BUT OVERALL INDICATE THAT
THE TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST HAS BEGUN. THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 020/8.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ADVANCING TOWARD NOEL FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NOEL
NORTHNORTHEASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
HEADING BUT LESS SO ON THE SPEED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS
A GFS/GFDL/HWRF BLEND.

WITH THE RECENT JUMP OF THE CENTER CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION...THERE
IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS...BEFORE THE WIND SHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVE. HOWEVER...
BAROCLINIC ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

AS NOEL IS EXPECTED TO EDGE AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON...IT SHOULD SOON BE POSSIBLE TO LOWER THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 24.5N 77.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 25.8N 76.9W 60 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 28.4N 74.9W 55 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 32.0N 72.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 03/1200Z 36.0N 69.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 04/1200Z 46.0N 61.0W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 05/1200Z 56.5N 50.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 06/1200Z 67.0N 25.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL



TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A

Published on November 1, 2007 2:27 PM | Comments

...NOEL PASSING OVER NASSAU AS IT ACCELERATES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...

TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 200 PM EDT THU NOV 01 2007

...NOEL PASSING OVER NASSAU AS IT ACCELERATES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...

AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR NEAR
NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/HR...AND A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES IN THE BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 18 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...25.0 N...77.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.



TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17

Published on October 31, 2007 5:33 PM | Comments

TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 500 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

THE CENTER OF NOEL DRIFTED WESTWARD FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND
MIDDAY...BUT RECENTLY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY...OR PERHAPS
MAKING A SMALL CYCLONIC LOOP...JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH COAST OF
CUBA. THE CENTER IS NOT AS WELL CONNECTED TO THE DEEP CONVECTION AS
IT WAS SEVERAL HOURS AGO...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES THAT
THE TWO WILL NOT COMPLETELY SEPARATE. INDEED...THERE WAS SOME
EVIDENCE IN THE RECON DATA AROUND 18Z THAT A SECOND VORTICITY
CENTER WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE SURFACE CENTER. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ADVANCING TOWARD THE CYCLONE...AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO INDUCE A NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION
OF NOEL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A GFDL/HWRF/GFS
BLEND...EXCEPT FOR BEING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT BASED ON FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR
DATA. THERE COULD BE SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES AND EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BEGINS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
NOEL WILL BECOME A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT HAVE
DECREASED BELOW GALE FORCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD OF NOEL HAS
EXPANDED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW
BRINGS TROPICAL STORM WINDS TO NEAR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
SINCE ANY SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN WINDS AT THE COAST WOULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME. WHILE A WATCH IS USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH
A LONGER LEAD TIME THAN A WARNING...IT ALSO CONVEYS THE
POSSIBILITY...AS OPPOSED TO THE EXPECTATION...OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS. BECAUSE THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...A WATCH IS MORE APPROPRIATE THAN A
WARNING. THE NEED FOR A WARNING WILL BE REASSESSED THIS EVENING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/2100Z 22.6N 78.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 23.5N 79.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 25.3N 78.1W 55 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 28.0N 76.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 31.5N 72.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 03/1800Z 39.0N 66.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 04/1800Z 49.0N 57.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 05/1800Z 60.0N 47.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL



TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 17

Published on October 31, 2007 5:32 PM | Comments

TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 500 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

...NOEL LINGERING ALONG THE CUBAN COAST...TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...

AT 5PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH
OF OCEAN REEF TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 190
MILES...305 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 240 MILES...385
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

NOEL HAS BEEN STATIONARY FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT A
GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER THE
BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. RAINS IN HISPANIOLA AND
CUBA ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...22.6 N...78.8 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...996 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.



At least 59 killed in Tropical Storm Noel's Caribbean rampage

Published on October 31, 2007 5:30 PM | Comments

For all the hype and predictions this has been a pretty quiet season - and then a mere tropical storm causes this much tragedy:

SANTO DOMINGO (AFP) — The death toll from Tropical Storm Noel's rampage through the Caribbean rose to at least 59 on Wednesday as torrents of water swept away entire families in the Dominican Republic.

Floods forced people to climb onto their roofs or to perch on trees in affected areas of the Dominican Republic, where at least 41 people were killed and another 38 were reported missing.

In one neighborhood of Santo Domingo, entire houses disappeared under the flood waters.

Noel barreled across the Dominican Republic on Sunday, and slammed Haiti the next day. On Wednesday, Noel's sequels continued to wreak havoc over Hispaniola, the island the two countries share, as the storm moved across Cuba, emerged in the Atlantic Ocean and targeted the Bahamas.
"The situation is still dangerous and the number of deaths could rise," said Luis Luna Palino, who heads the Dominican Republic's National Emergencies Center (CNE).



TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15

Published on October 31, 2007 7:02 AM | Comments

TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 500 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

SURFACE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF NOEL IS
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA NEAR CAYO COCO. RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE AREA OF STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER AT THIS TIME. A SURFACE OBSERVATION AT CAYO COCO
SUGGESTS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 1000 MB...AND AN EARLIER
ASCAT OVERPASS SUGGESTS THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 KT.

NOEL HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE 12 HR
MOTION IS 330/6...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY EVEN BE MORE TOWARD
THE NORTH. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS IS AN EARLY START OF THE
FORECAST NORTHWARD TURN...OR IF IT IS A RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER.
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW FOUR POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR NOEL BASED ON
INTERACTIONS WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THE FIRST...SUPPORTED BY THE NOGAPS...THE GFDL...
AND THE HWRF...IS FOR NOEL TO RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES AND
BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE SECOND...SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...IS FOR AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO
FORM OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WHICH ABSORBS NOEL. THE THIRD...
SUPPORTED BY THE UKMET...IS FOR AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO FORM OFF
THE FLORIDA COAST WITH IT AND NOEL MOVING NORTHEASTWARD IN TANDEM.
THE FOURTH...SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF...IS FOR AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW
TO FORM OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND A WEAKENING NOEL BEING DRIVEN
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN BY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE FIRST SCENARIO...WITH NOEL
RECURVING INTO THE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR AND THEN
ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD. THE TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD OVERALL
AGREEMENT WITH THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.

ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE NOEL IS
EXPERIENCING 20-25 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...MUCH OF IT
DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. AS NOEL MOVES OFF CUBA...
THERE WILL BE A 24 HR OR SO PERIOD OF DECREASED SHEAR THAT COULD
ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING. AFTER THAT...INTENSIFICATION AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD STOP AS NOEL ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SHEAR AND
BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN FURTHER AFTER BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL...WITH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 60 KT.

THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS THAT CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF FLORIDA
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH
OVER THE U.S. EAST COAST AND NOEL...BUT ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM. SEE STATEMENTS FROM
NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0900Z 22.1N 78.2W 35 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 31/1800Z 22.9N 78.7W 40 KT...OVER WATER
24HR VT 01/0600Z 23.9N 78.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 25.6N 77.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 28.0N 75.7W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 03/0600Z 35.0N 69.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 04/0600Z 44.0N 61.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 05/0600Z 54.0N 53.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL



TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15

Published on October 31, 2007 7:01 AM | Comments

TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 0900 UTC WED OCT 31 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 78.2W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 78.2W AT 31/0900Z...INLAND
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 78.1W...INLAND

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 22.9N 78.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.9N 78.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.6N 77.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.0N 75.7W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 35.0N 69.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...180NE 100SE 0SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 180SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 44.0N 61.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 54.0N 53.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 78.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z



TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 15

Published on October 31, 2007 7:00 AM | Comments

TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 500 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

...NOEL NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
COAST OF CUBA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES...85 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 205
MILES...335 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF NOEL OFF THE NORTHERN COAST
OF CUBA TODAY AND NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES OVER WATER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. GUANTANAMO BAY CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST
OF 43 MPH...69 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. CAYO
COCO CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA....BRINGING TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS TO 20
TO 30 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA... ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...22.1 N...78.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.



Tropical Storm Noel Lashes Cuba, May Gain Strength

Published on October 31, 2007 6:36 AM | Comments

Noel may gain strength now that is has finally Cuba and has some open water - more from Bloomberg:

Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Tropical Storm Noel, which brought deadly rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic, lashed central Cuba and may strengthen as it moves over water on a course toward the Bahamas, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Noel had sustained winds of about 65 kilometers (40 miles) an hour and was located about 85 kilometers north-northwest of Camaguey, the center said in an advisory posted on its Web site shortly after 4:30 a.m. Miami time. The system was heading north- northwest at 11 kph and forecast to turn gradually north.

"This motion should bring the center of Noel off the northern coast of Cuba today and near the northwestern Bahamas tonight,'' the agency's forecasters said. "Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours after the center emerges over water.'' They advised residents of southern Florida to monitor the storm's progress.



Death toll reaches 43 as Tropical Storm Noel rages across Caribbean

Published on October 31, 2007 6:33 AM | Comments

From AFP:

HAVANA (AFP) — At least 43 people were killed in floods and landslides triggered by Tropical Storm Noel as it barreled across Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Cuba, in the Caribbean, officials said Tuesday.

After drenching Hispaniola, an island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Noel late Tuesday moved slowly across the Cuban interior.

It left at least 30 people dead and 15 reported missing in the Dominican Republic, and threatened to cause more floods and mudslides across the region, already drenched by weeks of rainfall



Tropical Storm Noel Photos

Published on October 30, 2007 3:26 PM | Comments

Some pictures of the storm from ABC news.



TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12

Published on October 30, 2007 12:55 PM | Comments

TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR IMAGERY FROM CAMAGUEY CUBA...AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CLEARLY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF NOEL
REMAINS INLAND OVER EASTERN CUBA. PLENTY OF RAIN BANDS...
HOWEVER...STILL EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE...CONTINUING THE HEAVY RAINS FOR HISPANIOLA THAT HAVE
ALSO SPREAD INTO THE BAHAMAS. MY BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM
WINDS IS 40 KT...WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY BE OCCURRING IN THE BANDS
BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE NEXT AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS NOT SCHEDULED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT SINCE
THE CENTER OF NOEL WILL LIKELY SPEND THE DAY OVER LAND...AS THE
AIRCRAFT DO NOT TYPICALLY MAKE CENTER FIXES OVER LAND.

THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD OR 270
DEGREES AT ABOUT 10 KT...TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
AS THAT RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...NOEL SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD OFF OF CUBA AND
EVENTUALLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD. THE TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE IS
NOT AGREED UPON BY THE VARIOUS MODELS...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS
DOES NOT BRING NOEL BACK OVER WATER UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING...AND
NEITHER WILL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFICIAL
TRACK IS ALONG THE SAME PATH AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS
SLOWER DURING THE FIRST THREE DAYS.

THE FORECAST OF AN EXTENDED STAY OVER CUBA REQUIRES A LOWER
INTENSITY FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NOEL MIGHT WEAKEN A
LITTLE MORE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER LAND. ONCE IT EMERGES OVER
WATER AGAIN...IT COULD RESTRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE
BAHAMAS...BUT PROBABLY NOT AS MUCH AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
SINCE THE CIRCULATION WILL TAKE TIME TO BECOME REESTABLISHED. THE
CHANCES OF NOEL BECOMING A HURRICANE APPEAR LESS NOW...AND MOST OF
THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE DOES NOT FORECAST THIS TO OCCUR. NOTABLE
STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR...HOWEVER...ONCE NOEL BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.

THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ARE
NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE CIRCULATION OF NOEL. SEE STATEMENTS
FROM NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1500Z 21.1N 77.4W 40 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 31/0000Z 21.4N 78.3W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 31/1200Z 22.5N 78.7W 40 KT...NEAR COAST OF CUBA
36HR VT 01/0000Z 24.0N 78.6W 50 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 01/1200Z 26.2N 77.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 32.5N 71.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 03/1200Z 39.0N 64.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 04/1200Z 46.5N 58.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL



TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12

Published on October 30, 2007 12:54 PM | Comments

TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 1500 UTC TUE OCT 30 2007

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...BUT
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 77.4W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 77.4W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 77.1W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 21.4N 78.3W...INLAND OVER CUBA
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 22.5N 78.7W...NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.0N 78.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.2N 77.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 32.5N 71.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 150SE 0SW 150NW.
34 KT...200NE 250SE 0SW 250NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 39.0N 64.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 46.5N 58.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 77.4W



TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 12

Published on October 30, 2007 12:53 PM | Comments

TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

...NOEL WEAKENS A LITTLE OVER CUBA...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...BUT
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES... 60 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 270 MILES
...435 KM...SOUTH OF NASSAU IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND OVER
CUBA TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA
BY TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA... ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...21.1 N...77.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.



Up to 21 dead, 33 missing after storm in Dominican Republic

Published on October 30, 2007 12:50 PM | Comments

From Dominican Today:

SANTO DOMINGO.- In a bulletin issued last night the Emergencies Operations Center (COE) reported 11 deaths and 13 missing, while other sources say up to 21 fatalities and 33 missing in different zones of the country, from Tropical Storm Noel’s heavy rains.

The COE says the 11 fatalities occurred in the country’s southern region although the newspaper Diario Libre says it confirmed the deaths of three more in the cities La Vega and four in Bonao, in the country’s central area. Radio reports also cite four deaths in Villa Altagracia.

COE president Luis Luna Paulino said the red alert continues for most provinces and reported 3,295 people evacuated, 1,010 of those taken to shelters.



Tropical Storm Noel grazes Cuba, heads for Bahamas

Published on October 30, 2007 12:45 PM | Comments

From Reuters:

MIAMI, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Noel weakened slightly as it moved inland over northern Cuba on Tuesday, but the storm that killed more than a dozen people in the Dominican Republic was expected to briefly become a hurricane later in the week somewhere near the Bahamas.

By 8 a.m. EDT (1200 GMT), the center of the storm was located 35 miles (60 km) west-northwest of Holguin, Cuba, and its maximum sustained winds had dropped to 50 miles per hour (85 kph), the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Computer models showed the hurricane heading northwest toward Florida but making a sharp turn at some point to the northeast and swirling out over the Bahamas into the Atlantic.

The 14th named storm of the 2007 Atlantic storm season was not expected to strengthen significantly because of unfavorable wind conditions in the atmosphere. But the hurricane center forecast Noel would briefly become a minimal hurricane on its closest approach to southeast Florida.



TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9

Published on October 29, 2007 5:52 PM | Comments

Noel has caused damage and several deaths on Hispaniola. The storm is now northwest of that island and getting a little stronger. The forecast is a little all over the place, and this system could still cause some problems for The Bahamas and possibly Bermuda. It needs to be watched if you are traveling/live in the projected path.

TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 500 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

THE CENTER OF NOEL EMERGED OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF HAITI
EARLIER TODAY...HAS SINCE BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT
325/13...AND IS NOW JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA. THE
CIRCULATION CENTER WAS TOO CLOSE TO LAND FOR THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO FLY DIRECTLY THROUGH THE CENTER...BUT
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SURFACE PRESSURE ESTIMATES ARE CONSISTENT
WITH A POSITION ESTIMATED FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 46 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 37 KT AT THE
SURFACE...WHILE SFMR ESTIMATES PEAKED A LITTLE HIGHER NEAR 50 KT.
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THESE ESTIMATES. THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND THE
STORM HAS A VERY SPRAWLING APPEARANCE...BUT PLENTY OF RAINBANDS
EXTEND WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...CONTINUING TO BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO HISPANIOLA.

THE MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND HAVE
GENERALLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT. DURING THE FIRST 48
HOURS...THE GFDL REMAINS THE EASTERN OUTLIER BUT HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHERS...WHILE THE GFS PROVIDES THE
WESTERNMOST TRACK. DURING THIS PERIOD NOEL SHOULD CONTINUE
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE. THEREAFTER...NOEL SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWARD AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW SOON THIS TURN
WILL MATERIALIZE AND HOW FAST NOEL WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA...PERHAPS
DUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE PREDICTED VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A WESTWARD SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ARE
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MODEST
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL
WESTERLY WIND SHEAR INCREASES...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED THEREAFTER
AS NOEL HEADS NORTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.
THIS FORECAST IS AGAIN IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM AND HWRF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 20.9N 74.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 22.4N 75.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 23.7N 77.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 31/0600Z 24.7N 78.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 31/1800Z 25.8N 79.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 02/1800Z 31.0N 73.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 03/1800Z 35.0N 68.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL



TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9

Published on October 29, 2007 5:51 PM | Comments

TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 2100 UTC MON OCT 29 2007

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE
PROVINCES OF CAMAGUAY AND LAS TUNAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE
PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN.

AT 500 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 74.2W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......175NE 175SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 74.2W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 73.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.4N 75.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.7N 77.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 24.7N 78.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 25.8N 79.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 31.0N 73.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 35.0N 68.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 74.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z



TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 9

Published on October 29, 2007 5:50 PM | Comments

TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 500 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

...NOEL SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...AND EASTERN CUBA...

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE
PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY AND LAS TUNAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE
PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN.

AT 500 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM...NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT 215
MILES...340 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND IN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL SHOULD MOVE BETWEEN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO
RICO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN
HISPANIOLA...ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...20.9 N...74.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.



Dominican Republic says at least 8 people killed in tropical storm Noel

Published on October 29, 2007 5:48 PM | Comments

Horrible news:

SANTO DOMINGO, Dominican Republic - Tropical storm Noel brought fierce thunderstorms and flooding to the Dominican Republic on Monday and officials said at least eight people had died. At least three others people were reported missing as rains continued to lash Hispaniola, the island the country shares with Haiti, said Manuel Antonio Luna Paulino of the Dominican emergency services agency.


Tropical Storm Noel Rains Lash Haiti

Published on October 29, 2007 5:46 PM | Comments

From the AP:

PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti (AP) — Tropical Storm Noel lashed Haiti with heavy rains early Monday as it moved across the impoverished Caribbean nation, generating fears of flash flooding on deforested hills often blanketed by rows of flimsy shacks.

Noel, the 14th named storm of the Atlantic season, was expected to drop as much as 20 inches of rain on Haiti and the Dominican Republic — which share the island of Hispaniola — before heading on a path east of Cuba toward the Bahamas.

The storm weakened overnight as it encountered Hispaniola's mountainous terrain but still poses a serious threat to Haiti, which is recovering from floods that killed at least 37 and sent more than 4,000 people to shelters earlier this month.



TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8

Published on October 29, 2007 3:24 PM | Comments

TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 1100 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

NOEL HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE COMPLEX
TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA. A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM EMERGED NORTH
OF THE ISLAND A FEW HOURS AGO...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS REFORMING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
HAITI. UNTIL THE NEXT AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATES
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOCATION...FORWARD MOTION...AND EVEN
THE EXISTENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAIN RATHER UNCERTAIN.

OUR BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR
335/10...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE. NEARLY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
FORECAST A SURFACE LOW TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED SOMEWHERE OVER THE
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE
VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE CIRCULATION. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO INSIST ON
NOEL BECOMING A HURRICANE THAT WILL ACCELERATE QUICKLY NORTHWARD
AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. THE OTHER EXTREME IS THE ECMWF THAT DEPICTS
A WEAK SURFACE LOW HANGING OUT NEAR CUBA FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
THE REMAINING MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN...AND FORECAST A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. SOME OF THOSE MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...FORECAST
LITTLE MOTION ON DAYS 3-5...WHILE THE NOGAPS SHOWS A NORTHEASTWARD
ACCELERATION IN THAT TIME FRAME. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
SHOWS A WEAKENING AND INCREASINGLY SHALLOW CYCLONE THAT SLOWLY
RECURVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS AFTER 48 HOURS...IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...SIMILAR TO THE HWRF
SOLUTION AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

ASSUMING THE CYCLONE REGAINS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION AFTER BEING
DISRUPTED OVER HISPANIOLA...ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEAN CONDITIONS SHOULD
PROVIDE NOEL WITH AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...WESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD
DRAMATICALLY INCREASE AND INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND. THE NEW
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS. THIS
FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM AND HWRF GUIDANCE...AND
BELOW THE SHIPS AND GFDL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 19.9N 73.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 21.2N 73.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 22.4N 74.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 31/0000Z 23.4N 75.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 31/1200Z 24.3N 76.7W 50 KT
72HR VT 01/1200Z 26.0N 76.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 02/1200Z 28.0N 75.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 03/1200Z 30.0N 72.5W 35 KT



TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8

Published on October 29, 2007 3:23 PM | Comments

TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 1500 UTC MON OCT 29 2007

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS UPGRADED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 1100 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WATCH. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA
AND SANTIAGO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF
HAITI.

AT 1100 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 73.0W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 73.0W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 72.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.2N 73.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.4N 74.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 23.4N 75.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 24.3N 76.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.0N 76.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 28.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 30.0N 72.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 73.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z



TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A

Published on October 29, 2007 3:22 PM | Comments

TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 200 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

...NOEL REMAINS DISORGANIZED...CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF
CUBA...
...HEAVY RAINS NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI SOUTH
OF GONAIVES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO GONAIVES.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF
HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST OR ABOUT 30
MILES...50 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING NOEL.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...25 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS OR NORTHEASTERN CUBA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 15
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PUERTO RICO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS...
PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA...ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...20.5 N...73.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.



TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7

Published on October 29, 2007 6:07 AM | Comments

TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 500 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS NOT ABLE TO FIND A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT 850 MB...BUT DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE THAT
THE CENTER LIKELY REFORMED AGAIN TO THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION AND VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF HAITI. THE DROPSONDE
DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN SINCE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IS NOW LIKELY AROUND 1002 MB. THERE WAS AN SFMR
REPORT OF 42 KT...ABOUT 80 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER...AND ON THIS
BASIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/5. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF NOEL
IS INFLUENCING THE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY AND THE CENTER HAS BEEN
FOLLOWING THE CONVECTION. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC...THE TRACK SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE
TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THE RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
TURN NOEL NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE ECMWF AND UKMET...WHICH RUN A WEAK LOW ALONG OR SOUTH OF
CUBA...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AS A RESULT OF THE
NORTHWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF NOEL...WHICH IS NOT WELL-DEFINED
TO BEGIN WITH...WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE TERRAIN OF HAITI FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. ASSUMING IT SURVIVES THE PASSAGE...THE
NEGATIVE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD DIMINISH AND ALL
GUIDANCE INDICATES RESTRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM...BUT SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW THE GFDL AND
HWRF. BY DAYS 4-5...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INTERRUPT THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS...AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH
A FRONTAL ZONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0900Z 18.0N 72.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 19.4N 72.9W 30 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 21.1N 74.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 22.2N 75.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 31/0600Z 23.0N 75.8W 55 KT
72HR VT 01/0600Z 26.0N 76.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 02/0600Z 29.0N 74.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 03/0600Z 32.0N 70.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL



TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7

Published on October 29, 2007 6:06 AM | Comments

TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 0900 UTC MON OCT 29 2007

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO
DE CUBA...GUANTANAMO...AND HOLGUIN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. THIS WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 72.3W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 72.3W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 72.2W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.4N 72.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.1N 74.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.2N 75.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 23.0N 75.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 29.0N 74.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 32.0N 70.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 72.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z



TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 7

Published on October 29, 2007 6:03 AM | Comments

TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 500 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

...CENTER OF NOEL ABOUT TO REACH THE COAST OF HAITI AS LIFE-
THREATENING RAINS CONTINUE...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR
THE BAHAMAS...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO
DE CUBA...GUANTANAMO...AND HOLGUIN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. THIS WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES... 65 KM...SOUTH OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 245 MILES
...390 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF NOEL IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI SOUTH OF PORT AU PRINCE IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF
HAITI DURING THE DAY TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS NOEL INTERACTS
WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...BUT RESTRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES OVER ATLANTIC WATERS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PUERTO RICO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS...
PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA...ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...18.0 N...72.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.



Tropical Storm Noel lashes Haiti

Published on October 29, 2007 5:55 AM | Comments

The Associated Press is reporting:

PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti - Tropical Storm Noel lashed Haiti with heavy rains early Monday as it slowly neared the impoverished Caribbean nation, generating fears of flash flooding on deforested hills often blanketed by rows of flimsy shacks.

The strengthening Caribbean storm, which formed into a tropical storm Sunday, poses a serious threat to Haiti, where floods killed at least 37 earlier this month.

At 2 a.m. EDT, Noel‘s center was roughly 90 miles south of the Haitian capital of Port-au-Prince, forecasters said.

Forecasters said Noel, with tropical storm force winds fanning 115 miles from its center, could drop 12 inches of water on Hispaniola, southeastern Cuba and Jamaica.

Swollen rivers also forced evacuations in Cabaret, a town north of Port-au-Prince where floods killed at least 23 people earlier this month, said Marie Alta Jean-Baptiste, director of Haiti‘s civil protection agency.

A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch were issued for southeastern parts of Cuba, including the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo Bay where the U.S. military holds some 330 detainees on suspicion of links to terrorism.

Flood concerns on Saturday forced three U.S. senators to cut short a trip to Haiti, where they‘d planned to survey damage caused by earlier storms.

Widespread deforestation and poor drainage mean that even moderate rains can cause devastation in Haiti, where thousands of people build ramshackle homes in flood plains.



TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6

Published on October 29, 2007 3:17 AM | Comments

TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

NOEL HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
ALTHOUGH IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG CONVECTION PRIMARILY IN
CLUSTERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPREADING OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS LIKELY
GENERATING VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THAT ISLAND. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT BASED ON THE
EARLIER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50
KT. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE NOEL
AROUND 0600 UTC TO GIVE A NEW ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH AND POSITION
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIX THE LOCATION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER BASED
SOLELY ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. UTILIZING POSITION
ESTIMATES FROM EARLIER SSM/I AND AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THE
INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 330/4. NOEL IS APPARENTLY
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERN PORTION OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE A
LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS STEERING PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE NOEL TO
GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD IN A FEW DAYS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE
BASICALLY CLUSTERING INTO TWO POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF SUGGEST A WEAKER CYCLONE MOVING ON A GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER...THE GFS SOLUTION LOOKS
QUESTIONABLE SINCE IT SPLITS NOEL INTO TWO LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC
VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN A DAY OR SO AND DEVELOPS A THIRD CENTER
FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...GFDN...HWRF...U.K.
MET AND NOGAPS TRACKS. THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS NHC
TRACK.

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS BEEN IMPARTING SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARING
ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WHICH IS INHIBITING AN INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
LOW WILL SOON FILL...CREATING AN UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS HOW MUCH THE
INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA
WILL DISRUPT THE CIRCULATION OF NOEL. BY DAYS 3-5...INCREASING
WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INTERRUPT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS...AND
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE LOSING ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL ZONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 17.1N 72.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 18.3N 73.2W 50 KT...INLAND OVER HAITI
24HR VT 30/0000Z 19.7N 74.5W 60 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 30/1200Z 21.0N 75.7W 55 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
48HR VT 31/0000Z 22.4N 76.1W 55 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 01/0000Z 25.0N 76.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 02/0000Z 28.0N 74.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 03/0000Z 31.0N 72.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL



TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6

Published on October 29, 2007 3:16 AM | Comments

TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 0300 UTC MON OCT 29 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO
DE CUBA...GUANTANAMO...AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 72.1W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 72.1W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 72.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.3N 73.2W...INLAND OVER HAITI
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.7N 74.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.0N 75.7W...INLAND OVER CUBA
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 22.4N 76.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 28.0N 74.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 31.0N 72.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 72.1W



TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A

Published on October 29, 2007 3:15 AM | Comments

TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 200 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

...VERY HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO
DE CUBA...GUANTANAMO...AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST OR ABOUT 90
MILES...145 KM...SOUTH OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL MOVE NEAR OR
OVER SOUTHWESTERN HAITI LATER THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED WHILE
NOEL INTERACTS WITH THE LAND MASS OF HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND JAMAICA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...17.3 N...72.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT.



Tropical depression in Caribbean douses Haiti

Published on October 28, 2007 3:51 PM | Comments

From Reuters:

MIAMI, Oct 28 (Reuters) - The 16th tropical depression of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Sunday after forming in the Caribbean, U.S. forecasters said.

The depression was on the verge of becoming a tropical storm, with top sustained winds of 39 miles per hour (63 kph), the U.S. National Hurricane Center said. It would be called Tropical Storm Noel once it reached storm strength.

Most computer models used to predict storm tracks did not forecast that the system would reach hurricane strength as it passed to the south of the island of Hispaniola, shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and headed toward Cuba.

The Miami-based hurricane center said it was expected to take a sharp turn to the northeast after passing over Cuba and to move over the islands of the Bahamas and out into the Atlantic. That would mean critical U.S. oil and gas facilities in the Gulf of Mexico would not be affected.

By 11 a.m. EDT (1500 GMT), the depression was located around 145 miles (235 km) south of the Haitian capital Port-au-Prince and moving west-northwest at 6 mph (10 kph).

"Even though the center of the depression could pass south of Hispaniola, heavy rains to the north and east of the center will pass over the Dominican Republic and Haiti during the next 24 to 36 hours," the hurricane center said.



TROPICAL STORM NOEL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4

Published on October 28, 2007 2:53 PM | Comments

TD 16 has become Tropical Storm Noel:

TROPICAL STORM NOEL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 215 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

...NOEL BECOMES 14TH NAMED STORM OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO
RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA
WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR JAMAICA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 215 PM EDT...1815Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST OR ABOUT
150 MILES...235 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...8 KM/HR. A
GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...TAKING THE CENTER OF NOEL NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 996
MB...29.41 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND JAMAICA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 215 PM EDT POSITION...16.5 N...71.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.



Tropical Depression 16 Open Thread

Published on October 28, 2007 10:23 AM | Comments

Use this post to ask questions about and discuss TD 16.



Tropical Depression 16 5 Day Cone

Published on October 28, 2007 10:19 AM | Comments



TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2

Published on October 28, 2007 10:17 AM | Comments

So far the forecast and track are a little all over the place -

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 500 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007 THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY ON INFRARED OR NIGHT-VIS IMAGERY. RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES ALSO ARE NOT CONCLUSIVE...BUT SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS CONTINUING ON ITS PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 300/6. DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER LACKS ANY APPRECIABLE BANDING...AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS DOES NOT INDICATE THAT ANY STRENGTHENING HAS OCCURRED. WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IMPARTING WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT FAVOR MUCH DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL WASH OUT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...LEAVING THE CYCLONE UNDER A LESS HOSTILE UPPER PATTERN...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT NEVER APPEARS TO BE IDEAL FOR DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...THERE IS AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR LAND INTERACTIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAT WOULD HINDER STRENGTHENING. THE GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY FORECASTS...WHICH SUGGEST A MORE VERTICALLY-CONNECTED CYCLONE THAN APPEARS TO EXIST...ARE LARGELY BEING DISCOUNTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM.

TRACK FORECASTING OF WEAK SYSTEMS IN SHEARED ENVIRONMENTS IS
PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING...AND THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC PLAYERS ARE THE
UPPER-LOW ALREADY MENTIONED...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE
SURROUNDING THE DEPRESSION...AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN ABOUT
FOUR DAYS. THE GFDL AND HWRF LIE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...TAKING THE CYCLONE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN 2-3 DAYS. THIS APPEARS TO RESULT
FROM AN OVERLY STRONG INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LOW. ANOTHER
SCENARIO IS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO TURN TEMPORARILY TO THE NORTHWEST
IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LOW...BUT THEN BEND BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IN A COUPLE DAYS AROUND THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL
GYRE...BEFORE BEING DEFLECTED NORTHEASTWARD WHEN THE SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES ON DAYS 4-5. THIS IS THE SOLUTION OF THE UKMET. ON THE
LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ARE THE BAM MODELS AND THE
GFS...WHICH TAKE A RELATIVELY WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED LOW
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL THE MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE ARRIVES AND
SLOWLY RECURVES THE CYCLONE. THIS IS THE SOLUTION FAVORED BY THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT IS WORTH REITERATING THAT THE UNCERTAINTY
LEVEL IS HIGH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0900Z 16.2N 72.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 17.0N 73.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 17.9N 74.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 18.9N 76.3W 35 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 19.7N 77.7W 40 KT
72HR VT 31/0600Z 21.5N 80.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 23.0N 79.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 02/0600Z 25.0N 77.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL



TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A

Published on October 28, 2007 10:16 AM | Comments

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 800 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007 ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER HISPANIOLA...

AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST OR ABOUT
215 MILES...345 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 160 MILES...255 KM...SOUTH OF PORT AU PRINCE
HAITI.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION COULD PASS SOUTH
OF HISPANIOLA...HEAVY RAINS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER
WILL PASS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI DURING THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN
JAMAICA...4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...16.3 N...72.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.



TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1

Published on October 28, 2007 10:15 AM | Comments

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 0300 UTC SUN OCT 28 2007 AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 71.5W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 71.5W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 71.3W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.6N 72.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.7N 74.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.8N 76.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.6N 77.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 21.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 125NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 22.5N 80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 25.0N 78.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 71.5W



TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1

Published on October 28, 2007 10:13 AM | Comments

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2007

...PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BECOMES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN...WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.5 WEST OR ABOUT
195 MILES...310 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...
11 KM/HR. A MOTION TOWARD NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR
THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER JAMAICA AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...15.9 N...71.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.