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Tropical Storm Ingrid entries

caribbean-on-line   hurricane blog

Tropical Storm Ingrid

Tropical Depression Ingrid

Published on September 17, 2007 3:58 PM | Comments

We haven't been paying much attention to Ingrid - and here is why:

INGRID CONTINUES TO LACK ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...AND NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. CONSEQUENTLY...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. STRONG WESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 48 HOURS OR SO...AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE VERY LITTLE LEFT OF THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A LESS HOSTILE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.

This storm seems all but over.



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 13

Published on September 15, 2007 11:54 AM | Comments

Ingrid has been downgraded to a depression and is getting blown apart a bit by an upper level trough.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007 1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007

AN UPPER-LEVEL MID-OCEANIC TROUGH...MUCH STRONGER THAN NORMAL FOR
SEPTEMBER...HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE ATLANTIC RESULTING IN
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER INGRID. CONSEQUENTLY...THE CLOUD PATTERN
HAS DETERIORATED AND INGRID IS BECOMING A JUST LARGE SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF INTERMITTENT CONVECTION. THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL VIGOROUS AS INDICATED BY A NOAA
AIRCRAFT AND BY THE LATEST QUIKSCAT...AND BASED ON DATA FROM THESE
OBSERVING TOOLS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30
KNOTS. THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
EVEN FURTHER...SO IT IS FAIR TO SAY THAT INGRID WILL MOST LIKELY
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE MAIN
REASON INGRID IS KEPT AS A 25-KNOT DEPRESSION THROUGH FIVE
DAYS...WITHOUT FORECASTING DISSIPATION...IS BECAUSE GLOBAL MODELS
MAINTAIN A CIRCULATION WHICH TRAVERSES THE BAND OF STRONG
WESTERLIES. SOME MODELS...INCLUDING ALL VERSIONS OF SHIPS...SUGGEST
A SLIGHT REJUVENATION OF INGRID BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO A LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE OPEN SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC.

THE CENTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OR SWIRL HAS BEEN MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE
CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED...IT IS BECOMING STEERED BY THE FLOW AT LOWER
LEVELS. NEVERTHELESS...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND A
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN LATER
TODAY...AND WHATEVER IS LEFT OF INGRID SHOULD BE PASSING WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN A DAY OR TWO. IN
FACT...THIS IS THE SOLUTION OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 16.4N 53.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 17.0N 55.0W 25 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 18.0N 56.5W 25 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 19.0N 58.0W 25 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 20.5N 59.5W 25 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 22.5N 61.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 25.0N 63.0W 25 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 26.0N 64.0W 25 KT



TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 9

Published on September 14, 2007 11:41 AM | Comments
TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

FIXES FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHICH IS CURRENTLY ON A
RESEARCH MISSION INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF INGRID IS CLOSER TO
CONVECTION. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. BASED ON THE
AVERAGE OF FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SFMR DATA FROM THE PLANE...AND
DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 40 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...THIS INTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST SINCE INGRID IS
HEADING TOWARD A STRONGER THAN NORMAL SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS ARE
ALREADY OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ARE IMPINGING ON THE
CYCLONE...OR AS IT HAS BEEN SAID FOR YEARS IN THE SATELLITE
JARGON...A DAGGER THROUGH THE HEART. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT INGRID WILL NOT LAST
THROUGH FIVE DAYS. IN FACT...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS ALREADY BEGUN
TO DETERIORATE SINCE THIS MORNING'S CLASSIFICATIONS.

INGRID IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND HAS BEEN MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. THESE CURRENTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK AS A MID-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF INGRID. THIS LOW WILL PROBABLY FORCE THE CYCLONE OR
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IT ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHICH IS BOUNDED
BY THE NOGAPS TO THE NORTH AND BY THE UK TO THE SOUTH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 15.2N 50.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 15.5N 50.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 16.5N 52.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 16/0000Z 17.5N 53.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 18.5N 55.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 20.0N 57.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 18/1200Z 21.5N 59.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 19/1200Z 23.0N 61.0W 30 KT



TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 9

Published on September 14, 2007 11:40 AM | Comments
TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 14 2007

...INGRID MOVING SLOWLY OVER OPEN WATERS...TEMPORARILY
STRENGTHENS...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.0 WEST OR ABOUT 755
MILES...1210 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
THIS SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...INGRID SHOULD WEAKEN SOME
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS
1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...15.2 N...50.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.



TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 8

Published on September 14, 2007 6:21 AM | Comments
TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

LATEST CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 0452 UTC AMSU-B
MICROWAVE PASS SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION LIES BENEATH
THE LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.0/45 KT AND 2.5/35 KT RESPECTIVELY. SINCE A
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE CONDUCTING ANOTHER RESEARCH MISSION IS
CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE...I WILL HOLD OFF
INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY UNTIL A MORE ACCURATE MEASUREMENT
CAN BE TAKEN. SO...INGRID WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A 35 KT TROPICAL
STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE PRIMARY MECHANISM THAT WILL AFFECT THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF
INGRID WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. ABOUT 10-15 KNOTS OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING INGRID...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
HAMPERING INGRID FROM INTENSIFYING FURTHER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE NEAR TERM FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL WEAKENING. THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGE AND FSSE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AROUND 300/6. INGRID IS IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A WEAK RIDGE POSITIONED TO ITS NORTHEAST
AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO ITS NORTH. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
BOTH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND THAT OF INGRID WILL
DETERMINE THE DEGREE OF STEERING THE CYCLONE WILL TAKE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. SINCE INGRID IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A RELATIVELY WEAK
CYCLONE IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
MAINTAINS A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THAT IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BUT SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0900Z 15.1N 49.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 15.5N 50.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 15/0600Z 16.1N 51.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 15/1800Z 16.7N 52.3W 40 KT
48HR VT 16/0600Z 17.3N 53.7W 35 KT
72HR VT 17/0600Z 18.5N 56.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 18/0600Z 20.0N 58.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 19/0600Z 21.5N 60.5W 30 KT



TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 8

Published on September 14, 2007 6:19 AM | Comments
TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007 500 AM AST FRI SEP 14 2007

...INGRID WELL EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.2 WEST OR ABOUT 805
MILES...1300 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...15.1 N...49.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.



TD 8 is now Tropical Storm INGRID

Published on September 14, 2007 6:17 AM | Comments

TD 8 has become Ingrid - the storm is on a track at the moment to veer north of the Caribbean islands and weaken, so it doesn't seem like a major event. We will continue to monitor it until the Caribbean, the Bahamas and Bermuda are all clear.



Tropical Depression EIGHT open thread

Published on September 13, 2007 5:24 PM | Comments

Discuss Tropical Depression EIGHT



Tropical Depression EIGHT 5 Day Cone

Published on September 13, 2007 5:22 PM | Comments



Tropical Depression EIGHT

Published on September 13, 2007 5:17 PM | Comments
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007 500 PM AST THU SEP 13 2007

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION SLOWLY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.4 WEST OR ABOUT 865
MILES...1395 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...10
KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING...THE DEPRESSION STILL HAS THE CHANCE TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS EVENING.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...14.2 N...48.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.










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