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May 25, 2007
How Good Are Hurricane Forecasts?
Slate asks "How Good Are Hurricane Forecasts?" The answer seems to be - not so bad, but last year stunk:
"Not bad at all. In general, the predictions fall within a storm or two of the observed totals. Last season, though, the forecasters had a bad year. 2004's six intense hurricanes doubled most predictions. The seasonal total of nine hurricanes was also significantly higher than expected. Forecasters blamed the poor predictions on a "year [that] did not behave like any other year we have studied."
