June 29, 2007
Tropics still quiet
Good news for Caribbean travelers and residents from the NHC:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
June 26, 2007
Tropics remain quiet
Not much is happening in the tropics, so now after all the hype we are starting to see some news reports wondering if the forecasters are wrong (again - like they were last year). It is a very peculiar thing - everyone should be happy about the lack of potentially life threatening weather... not trying to cheer it on. The Palm Beach Post has a pretty good section for hurricanes, satellite images, links, etc. - here is a recent article:
So, what's it all mean? Put up the shutters now or start drinking those gallon jugs of water? And what does El Niño have to do with it?
"Early-season storms have little or nothing to do with peak-of-season activity," said Richard Knapp, a senior forecaster at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
"Often we've had one June storm and we've had a strong peak season. And we've had Junes without a storm when the peak of the season hasn't been as strong," he said.
June 18, 2007
Tropics remain relatively quiet
Everyone seems to be on edge for this monster storm season to kick in (fueled no doubt by the never ending media accounts of an active season), but the tropics remain quiet:
The Miami center watches the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico during hurricane season from June through November.
So far, this season has been quiet, although forecasters predict an active season of storms affecting the U.S. Two of the last three seasons have seen Florida hit hard by multiple tropical storms and hurricanes.
September is historically the time for more and severe storms so it is not unusual at all to see relatively calm weather now - but the current conditions are good news for the Caribbean islands and we hope it stays this way.
June 15, 2007
Hurricane hunter might check system
From Florida Today:
The system is expected to affect Florida this weekend as the low drifts northward over the Gulf of Mexico.
"Upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for development, but may become more favorable during the next 48 hours as the system drifts toward the northwest," forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami said today.
This doesn't look like a very big deal at this point, and if it were to develop it wouldn't affect the Caribbean.
June 13, 2007
Crucial hurricane satellite could fail at any time
This doesn't sound good:
IIf the satellite faltered, experts estimate that the accuracy of two-day forecasts could suffer by 10 percent and three-day forecasts by 16 percent, which could translate into miles of coastline and the difference between a city being evacuated or not
"We would go blind. It would be significantly hazardous," said Wayne Sallade, emergency manager in Charlotte County, which was hit hard by Hurricane Charley in 2004.
June 12, 2007
Tropical weather terms
From the National Hurricane Center - definitions of specific tropical weather terms:
Tropical Wave: A trough or cyclonic curvature maximum in the trade-wind easterlies. The wave may reach maximum amplitude in the lower middle troposphere.
Tropical Depression: A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less.
Tropical Storm: A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) ranges from 34 kt (39 mph or 63 km/hr) to 63 kt (73 mph or 118 km/hr).
Tropical Storm Watch: An announcement for specific coastal areas that tropical storm conditions are possible within 36 hours.
Tropical Storm Warning: A warning that sustained winds within the range of 34 to 63 kt (39 to 73 mph or 63 to 118 km/hr) associated with a tropical cyclone are expected in a specified coastal area within 24 hours or less.
June 11, 2007
Hurricane forecasters are watching tropical wave off Cape Verde
Things are relatively quiet out there. The Bradenton Herald notes the following:
Because of this, development of the wave into a tropical storm "is becoming less likely," say the forecasters in Miami.
Other than the wave, the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico appear to be clear of tropical storm precursors over the next two days.
June 8, 2007
Tips for Hurricane Season in the Caribbean
From Home & Away Magazine:
Released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, the 2007 report projects a 75 percent chance that the Atlantic hurricane season will be above normal. The report goes on to predict 13 to 17 named storms, seven to 10 of which could become hurricanes and three to five of which could become major storms, Category 3 or higher. That compares to an average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two Category 3s or higher.
Of course, predicting hurricanes is still an inexact science. Last year was surprisingly calm, despite predictions of a similarly above-average season. In fact, there are only two things you can count on in the Caribbean: the threat of bad weather translates into some of the best deals of the year, and if you plan ahead, you can minimize the risk of rough seas or a ruined vacation. Here’s what you should know:
When to go:
The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs June 1 through Nov. 30, although Mother Nature doesn’t always get the memo. This year, for example, the first named storm of the year—Subtropical Storm Andrea—showed up off the coast of Florida three weeks before the start of the official season.
There is more here. They recommend trip insurance during hurricane season - and we do too, especially if you are spending a lot and it is a once a year kind of trip.
June 6, 2007
Hurricanes in the Dominican Republic
DR1 has a new page up for "Hurricanes in the Dominican Republic" with a lot of good information, advice, and links to other hurricane resources. If you are planning a trip to the DR during hurricane season, their site is a good place to visit.
June 4, 2007
stormCARIB
Gert van Dijken's stormCARIB is a great resource for tropical weather - specifically for first hand accounts and condition reports from a large network of Caribbean islands residents.
Gert has been doing this for years - he is someone who was "blogging" before people had named it or knew what it was. He also keeps the site almost commercial free - it is a labor of love and it shows. This is a site you need to bookmark if you are interested in tropical weather.
June 3, 2007
Final notice on Barry
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat.
FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MARYLAND...EASTERN
VIRGINA...MOST OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CAROLINA.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY HAS BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. AT 11 PM EDT...03Z...THE CENTER OF THIS EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE WAS LOCATED ON THE EAST COAST OF GEORGIA NEAR LATITUDE
31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE...81.0 WEST...AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH.
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THAT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAD ALREADY OVERSPREAD EASTERN
GEORGIA...MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA AND WAS BEGINNING TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINA. NEW HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WERE FORMING JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND WERE READY
TO MOVE ONSHORE EAST OF CHARLESTON.
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 8 PM EDT
...FLORIDA...
WEST PALM BEACH INTL ARPT 6.99
MELBOURNE WFO 6.03
LARGO (MCKAY CREEK) 6.01
SUWANNEE 6 NE 5.25
CHIEFLAND 5 SE 5.15
CLEARWATER (ALLIGATOR CREEK) 4.95
DUNEDIN 4.63
TARPON SPRINGS 5 E (BROOKER CREEK) 4.56
MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE 4.24
HOLIDAY 5 E 4.16
SAFETY HARBOR 4.09
TOWN 'N COUNTRY 3.95
ST PETE/CLEARWATER INTL 3.79
PINELLAS PARK (PINEBROOK CANAL) 3.74
BRONSON FAWN 3.67
INVERNESS 3 SE 3.50
PALM RIVER-CLAIR MEL 3.34
THONOTOSASSA 3.00
TAMPA INTL 3.17
...GEORGIA...
MIDWAY 5.25
DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH 5.24
SAVANNAH AIRPORT 4.45
TYBEE ISLAND 3.61
HINESVILLE 3.54
PORT WENTWORTH 3.14
HUNTER ARMY AIRFIELD 3.01
...SOUTH CAROLINA...
LEVY 5.07
BLUFFTON 3.13
EXTRATROPICAL STORM BARRY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
WILL BE COMMON FROM GEORGIA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE NEXT ADVISORY ON EXTRATROPICAL STORM BARRY WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. PLEASE
REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION ON THIS STORM.
June 2, 2007
Tropical Storm Barry heads to north Florida
From the AP:
The storm was centered about 240 miles southwest of Tampa and about 160 miles west of Key West at about 2 a.m. It had sustained winds near 50 mph and was moving north northeast near 10 mph. Forecasters expected Barry to continue the same path and increase speed over the next day, but a slight decrease in strength was anticipated before the storm's possible landfall.
Tropical Storm BARRY Public Advisory #3
Barry looks like it will be a Florida event if anything so we will not be tracking it too closely here:
...POORLY-ORGANIZED BARRY ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO KEATON BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF KEATON BEACH TO ST.
MARKS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. IN THIS CASE...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT 180
MILES...290 KM...SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 175 MILES...
280 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
BARRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING
THE CENTER OF BARRY ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR
THE CENTER AT THIS TIME...AND SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BARRY WILL LIKELY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER. WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COASTS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AT THIS TIME...WITH NOAA BUOY 41009 EAST OF CAPE
CANAVERAL REPORTING GUSTS TO 40 MPH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF BARRY MAKES LANDFALL. WIND AND WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH
BARRY ARE PRODUCING DANGEROUS RIPS CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
BARRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA...COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...AND COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...25.9 N...84.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.
