If you’re traveling to the Caribbean this summer, you may want to pack the poncho and some extra seasickness patches. Hurricane season officially starts June 1, and according to federal weather watchers, things could get a bit rough this year.

Released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, the 2007 report projects a 75 percent chance that the Atlantic hurricane season will be above normal. The report goes on to predict 13 to 17 named storms, seven to 10 of which could become hurricanes and three to five of which could become major storms, Category 3 or higher. That compares to an average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two Category 3s or higher.

Of course, predicting hurricanes is still an inexact science. Last year was surprisingly calm, despite predictions of a similarly above-average season. In fact, there are only two things you can count on in the Caribbean: the threat of bad weather translates into some of the best deals of the year, and if you plan ahead, you can minimize the risk of rough seas or a ruined vacation. Here’s what you should know:

When to go:
The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs June 1 through Nov. 30, although Mother Nature doesn’t always get the memo. This year, for example, the first named storm of the year—Subtropical Storm Andrea—showed up off the coast of Florida three weeks before the start of the official season.