July 2007 | Main | September 2007
August 25, 2007
Death toll from Hurricane Dean rises
From the AFP:
The man, a 65-year-old shepherd, drowned when he was swept into a drainage canal overflowing with water from Dean, officials in the state of Hidalgo said.
Hurricane Dean had earlier killed at least 17 people during its rampage across the Caribbean.
Several rivers burst their banks on Thursday in Hidalgo, cutting off roads and damaging farmland. More than 10,000 people in the state were evacuated to higher ground as river levels continued to rise.
Dean first slammed ashore on Mexico's Caribbean coast on Tuesday as a monster hurricane of the topmost category five. It gradually lost steam as it crossed the Yucatan Peninsula before swirling over the Gulf of Mexico and heading inland once more.
At its peak on Tuesday, Dean packed maximum sustained winds of 270 kilometres per hour, making it the first category 5 Atlantic hurricane to hit land since Andrew ravaged the US state of Florida in 1992.
Hurricane Dean Update from Jamaica
Following is a detailed update from Jamaica with property reports, the condition of golf courses, power and road conditions, etc.
| Hurricane Dean Update |
| JAMAICA TOURIST BOARD - UPDATE #24 |
Published on 8/24/2007 12:00:00 AM |
|
 |
Hurricane Dean's wake: updates from Mexico & the Caribbean
Here is a good round up from the LA Times:
August 23, 2007
Hurricane Dean moronic behavior video
This is posted against my better judgement - I think stunts like this are pretty foolish and usually pulled off by people who don't realize or respect the power of nature, but here goes:
Hurricane Dean Video from Dominica
Hurricane Dean Video from Cancun
From the Weather Channel:
"There is structural damage to the front of these cabanas"...wow. TV is really bad for your health.
BBC Video of Hurricane Dean
Can't embed this video (and it is a couple of days old) but this is a pretty comprehensive report from the BBC.
Hurricane Dean weakens over central Mexico
From the LA Times:
The threat of serious flooding and mudslides remained as the former Category 5 hurricane diminished to a tropical depression, dropping heavy rain on villages along the mountains of the eastern Sierra Madre.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON DEAN. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS
RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND IS BECOMING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 17 KNOTS ACROSS MEXICO
BUT STILL PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS. ANY REMNANT CIRCULATION OF
THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO.
THE MID-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD A LITTLE
FASTER...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN CASE
REGENERATION OCCURS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON WHAT WAS ONCE CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE DEAN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0300Z 20.5N 100.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 20.5N 103.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 40
The NHC is closing the books on Dean with this advisory - this will be the last one issued for Dean.
...DEAN WEAKENING OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.0 WEST OR ABOUT
95 MILES...150 KM...NORTHWEST OF MEXICO CITY.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION ACROSS MEXICO IS EXPECEDT TO CONTINUE UNTIL
DISSIPATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...20.5 N...100.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.
August 22, 2007
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE CENTRAL CORE OF DEAN COLLAPSED DURING PASSAGE ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS
HAD EXPANDED TO 55 N MI IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE
BAND. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION FORMING CLOSE TO THE
CIRCULATION CENTER...BUT THIS DOES NOT CORRESPOND WITH ANY WIND
MAXIMUM SEEN BY THE AIRCRAFT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 979
MB AND THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY
MICROWAVE RADIOMETER WERE 64 KT. BASED ON THIS AND THE POSSIBILITY
THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE NOT SAMPLED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
70 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/17. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF DEAN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 12 HR...AND UNTIL
EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION...WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT
THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOWING 15-20 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE LARGE CORE
SIZE...SUGGESTS THAT RE-INTENSIFICATION MAY BE SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 80 KT BEFORE LANDFALL...WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE. DEAN SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE BY
48 HR AT THE LATEST.
THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY BASED ON AIRCRAFT...
BUOY...AND QUIKSCAT OBSERVATIONS. THE INCREASED AREA OF HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS HAS REQUIRED A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE HURRICANE
WARNING ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0900Z 20.3N 94.8W 70 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 20.9N 97.1W 80 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 21.4N 100.2W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 23/1800Z 21.8N 103.5W 20 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
...DEAN BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL LATER TODAY...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF CAMPECHE WESTWARD TO LA CRUZ. PREPARATIONS IN
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM NORTH OF LA CRUZ TO BAHIA ALGODONES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.5 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...
160 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 120 MILES...
195 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF DEAN ACROSS THE GULF
COAST OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.
THE LATEST PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...20.5 N...95.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT.
August 21, 2007
Hurricane Loses Strength as It Crosses Mexico
From the NY Times:
Roofs were ripped off homes, streets were flooded, power lines were down and trees were snapped in two as Hurricane Dean, the most powerful Atlantic storm to hit land since 1988 with winds in excess of 165 miles per hour, passed overhead.
On the road from Felipe Carrillo Puertos, a small town about 100 miles north of Chetumal on the east coast where the storm was originally predicted to come ashore, uprooted trees blocked traffic until federal police officers cleared the way with chainsaws. In towns along the way, people were salvaging belongings and wares from ravaged homes and stores, lugging boxes and goods through sodden roadways. In the town of Limones, a sports center had been crumpled like a piece of paper.
In Pedro Santos, about 45 miles north of Chetumal, a grocer stared at the cement block walls of his store, missing its tin roof. “ We thought it would stand up pretty well, but it wasn’t the case,” said the grocer, Jacobo Reyes, 32. His mother, Carmen Bustillos, 54, said she could not stand living in a hurricane alley. “I think now we should rebuild in a new place, start all over again,” she said, crying.
Chetumal clearly took the brunt of the hurricane’s strike on the Yucatán, with streets inundated and debris everywhere. Hundreds of trees lay strewn along major thoroughfares, and thousands were without power and running water. But with no deaths reported, city officials said that they were relieved.
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
DEAN HAS EMERGED INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
OF 70 KT IS AGAIN BASED ON TYPICAL DECAY RATES...AND HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
BE IN THE CYCLONE AROUND 00Z TO ASCERTAIN THE TRUE STRENGTH OF
DEAN. BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE INNER CORE OF DEAN APPEARS
TO BE LARGELY INTACT...WITH DEEP CONVECTION DIRECTLY OVER THE
CENTER. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW RESTRENGTHENING TO BEGIN FAIRLY
QUICKLY...AND DEAN COULD BE VERY NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY THE
TIME OF ITS LANDFALL IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE OVERLY INFLUENCED BY THE RECENT DECAY AND HAS BEEN
DISCOUNTED FOR THIS ADVISORY. AFTER LANDFALL...THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME DISRUPTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF CENTRAL MEXICO...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE FROM DEAN COULD END UP
WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE 280/17...AND THERE CONTINUES TO
BE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO STEER DEAN ON A TRACK
JUST NORTH OF WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE DIVERGENT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE UKMET SHOWING A BIT OF JOG TO THE RIGHT JUST
BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE IS LARGELY
UNCHANGED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/2100Z 19.4N 91.3W 70 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 19.8N 93.9W 85 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 20.5N 97.1W 95 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 23/0600Z 21.0N 100.5W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 35
...DEAN EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...DEAN EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESO WESTWARD TO TAMPICO. PREPARATIONS IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF TAMPICO TO
LA PESCA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.3 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...
100 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO AND ABOUT 410 MILES...660
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR
THE COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ALONG
THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...AND GUATEMALA...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS.
REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...19.4 N...91.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.
The end of Hurricane Dean
Now that Dean is no longer a Caribbean storm, we won't be sending out any more updates on this storm. We will still be posting the NHC watches and warnings, etc. and we will definitely be following the news of Dean and posting as many pictures, videos, stories and links that we can find in the coming days and weeks, but to get that info, you will just have to visit the Caribbean-On-Line Hurricane blog (so bookmark us if you haven't yet!).
We will resume email alerts when and if another storm threatens the Caribbean region, or if there is any major Caribbean hurricane news. We hope you found the email updates useful. Remember you can take your email address off the list at any time by visiting the site and using the unsubscribe form in the left hand column.
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Anthony for Caribbean-On-Line
Category 5 Hurricane Dean Slams Mexico
From the AP:
Dean's path was a stroke of luck for Mexico: It made landfall in a sparsely populated coastline that had already been evacuated, skirting most of the major tourist resorts. It weakened within hours to a Category 2 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph.
The eye of the storm hit land near Majahual, a port popular with cruise liners, and it was racing across the Yucatan Peninsula toward a Tuesday afternoon entry into the Bay of Campeche, where the state oil company evacuated the oil rigs that produce most of Mexico's oil.
In the largely Mayan town of Felipe Carrillo Puerto, at one point about 30 miles from the center of the storm, people stared from their porches at broken tree limbs and electrical cables crisscrossing the streets, some of which were flooded with ankle-deep water.
Tin roofing ripped from houses clunked hollowly as it bounced in the wind whistling through town.
"We began to feel the strong winds about 2 in the morning and you could hear that the trees were breaking and some tin roofs were coming off," said Miguel Colli, a 36-year-old store employee. "Everyone holed up in their houses. Thank God that the worst is over."
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
AFTER MAKING LANDFALL IN A SPARSELY-POPULATED AREA...DEAN CONTINUES
TO TRAVERSE THE SPARSELY-POPULATED SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE EYE HAS FILLED AND CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING. THE
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 90 KT BASED ON THE DECAY COMPONENT OF THE
SHIPS MODEL. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN
ANOTHER 3 TO 5 HOURS AS A HURRICANE...AND WILL HAVE ABOUT 18 HOURS
OVER WATER TO REGAIN STRENGTH. SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT DEAN COULD APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AGAIN...ALTHOUGH
THE AMOUNT OF RESTRENGTHENING WILL BE HARD TO GAUGE UNTIL WE SEE
HOW MUCH OF THE INNER CORE OF THE HURRICANE SURVIVES ITS PASSAGE
OVER LAND.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/17. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECASTING THINKING. DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODEL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/1500Z 19.0N 89.6W 90 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 19.4N 92.2W 85 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 20.0N 95.5W 95 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 20.5N 98.7W 50 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 23/1200Z 21.0N 101.5W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
AT 10 AM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR BELIZE TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF
PROGRESO WESTWARD TO TAMPICO. PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF TAMPICO TO LA PESCA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO...AND
FROM NORTH OF TAMPICO TO LA PESCA.
AT 10 AM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL REMAINING
WATCHES FOR CUBA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 89.6W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......210NE 210SE 75SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 0SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 89.6W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 88.7W
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.4N 92.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 20.0N 95.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.5N 98.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 70 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...120NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.0N 101.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 89.6W
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 34
...DEAN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AT 10 AM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR BELIZE TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF
PROGRESO WESTWARD TO TAMPICO. PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF TAMPICO TO LA PESCA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO...AND
FROM NORTH OF TAMPICO TO LA PESCA.
AT 10 AM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL REMAINING
WATCHES FOR CUBA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...
150 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 85 MILES...140
KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL REACH THE
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A FEW HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ALTHOUGH CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DEAN CROSSES THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE A HURRICANE WHEN
IT REACHES THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240
MILES...390 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY. WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO
8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.
DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...19.0 N...89.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.
Hurricane Dean's Eye Hits Mexico Coast
From the AP:
The eye of the storm made landfall about 4:30 a.m. EDT near Majahual, a popular port with cruise liners located about 40 miles east-northeast of Chetumal and the Belize border, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.
Dean packed winds near 165 mph and was moving west-northwest near 20 mph across the Yucatan peninsula, on course to reach by Tuesday evening the southern Bay of Campeche, where state oil company Petroleos Mexicanos decided Monday to shut down production on the offshore rigs that extract most of the nation's oil.
State civil protection official Francisco de la Cruz described battering winds from his hurricane-proof offices in Chetumal just before the eye reached land.
"There's a lot of noisy wind now with this creature all over us," he said.
The Chetumal city Web site reported power outages as the hurricane knocked trees down across roadways and sheets of metal flew through the air.
Dean was the first Category 5 hurricane to make landfall since Hurricane Andrew in 1992 in South Florida, the hurricane center said.
The hurricane killed at least 12 people across the Caribbean, picked up strength after brushing Jamaica and the Cayman Islands and became a monstrous Category 5 hurricane Monday. Forecasters said Dean was intensifying right up until landfall, feeding off the Caribbean's warm water temperatures.
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
DEAN MADE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
THE CRUISE SHIP PORT OF COSTA MAYA AROUND 0830 UTC...AND THE EYE IS
NOW JUST INLAND. OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE WAS INTENSIFYING RIGHT UP TO
LANDFALL. A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 165 KT WAS MEASURED JUST
NORTH OF THE EYE. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SFMR WERE 124
KT...BUT IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED
WAS NOT REPORTED BY THE SFMR INSTRUMENT. A GPS DROPSONDE IN THE
NORTHERN EYEWALL MEASURED A WIND SPEED OF 178 KT AVERAGED OVER THE
LOWEST 150 METERS OF THE SOUNDING. BASED ON THE DROPSONDE AND THE
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 145 KT. A DROPSONDE
IN THE EYE MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 906 MB JUST PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. SOME HISTORIC NOTES ARE IN ORDER HERE. THE 906 MB
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS THE NINTH LOWEST ON RECORD FOR AN ATLANTIC
BASIN HURRICANE...AND THE THIRD LOWEST AT LANDFALL BEHIND THE 1935
LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND HURRICANE GILBERT OF
1988 IN CANCUN MEXICO. DEAN IS ALSO THE FIRST CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE ANDREW OF
1992.
DEAN WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRAVERSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG THE CENTER REMAINS
OVER LAND. OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STILL BE
A BORDERLINE CAT 1/2 HURRICANE WHEN IT EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST.
ASSUMING THAT THE INNER CORE IS NOT TOO DISRUPTED BY ITS
INTERACTION WITH LAND...DEAN SHOULD REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS
BEFORE ITS FINAL LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/17. DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
COASTLINE OF MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0900Z 18.7N 87.8W 145 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 19.1N 90.4W 85 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 22/0600Z 19.6N 93.9W 95 KT...OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE
36HR VT 22/1800Z 20.1N 96.8W 105 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 23/0600Z 20.5N 100.0W 25 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING
FROM WEST OF CHILITEPEC TO VERACRUZ MEXICO.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF BELIZE
AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESO
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO VERACRUZ. PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
PROVINCES OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND ISLA DE LA
JUVENTUD.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 87.8W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 906 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 90SW 125NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 200SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 87.8W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 86.9W
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.1N 90.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 15SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 60SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.6N 93.9W...OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 75SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.1N 96.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 75SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.5N 100.0W...INLAND...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 87.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 33
...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...
...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING
FROM WEST OF CHILITEPEC TO VERACRUZ MEXICO.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF BELIZE
AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESO
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO VERACRUZ. PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
PROVINCES OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND ISLA DE LA
JUVENTUD.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
EYE OF DEAN MADE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR COSTA MAYA OR MAJAHUAL AROUND 330 AM CDT. THIS
LOCATION IS ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHETUMAL
MEXICO
AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
JUST INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST OR ABOUT
35 MILES... 55 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 195
MILES...315 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TODAY AND LIKELY REACH THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DEAN CROSSES THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
906 MB...26.75 INCHES...JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.
DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...18.7 N...87.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...906 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM CDT.
Hurricane Dean Slams Into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula
From Bloomberg:
The eye of Dean was 160 kilometers east of the city of Chetumal in Mexico at 1 a.m. local time, the Center said in the latest advisory posted on its Web site. The storm was moving west at 32 kilometers an hour. Dean is strong enough to rip off roofs, flood seaside buildings and down trees, shrubs and signs, the center said.
``Preparations to protect life and property along the east coast of the Yucutan Peninsula should have already been completed,'' the advisory said.
Dean was forecast to pass near Chetumal, about 50 kilometers from where the eye is expected to cross land. Mexico closed its biggest Gulf oil platforms and tourists had largely evacuated the beach resorts of Cancun, Cozumel and Playa del Carmen about 390 kilometers to the north of Chetumal."
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
DEAN HAS TAPPED INTO ENERGY PROVIDED BY THE DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING...AND HAS REACHED CATEGORY
FIVE STATUS WITH AN INTENSITY OF 140 KT. DURING THE LAST
PENETRATION BY THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
AT 00Z...A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 914 MB WAS MEASURED. THE PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND WAS 162 KT...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 145 KT AT
THE SURFACE. DUE TO COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS...WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED
ALL OF THE DROPSONDE AND SFMR DATA IN REAL-TIME. THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS SET TO A POSSIBLY CONSERVATIVE 140 KT...PENDING A MORE
THOROUGH EXAMINATION OF ALL OF THE AIRCRAFT DATA. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT
WILL ARRIVE IN THE EYE OF DEAN IN A FEW HOURS...PRIOR TO LANDFALL
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE EVOLVING
SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF DEAN REVEALS AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC
CONVECTIVE PATTERN...AND A VERY WELL-DEFINED AND GRADUALLY
CONTRACTING EYE WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 20 N MI. REPORTS FROM THE
AIRCRAFT...AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY...PROVIDE NO
INDICATIONS OF ANY INNER-CORE STRUCTURAL CHANGES THAT WOULD LEAD TO
WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE
STATUS DURING ITS ENTIRE STAY OVER YUCATAN...AND IT COULD STILL
REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BEFORE FINAL
LANDFALL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.
THE HURRICANE GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
275/17. A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH DEAN ROUGHLY ALONG THIS SAME HEADING AND
SPEED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER MAINLAND
MEXICO. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH
IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WELL-ESTABLISHED HEADING...AND TO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...GFS...AND
NOGAPS MODELS. ALONG THE NEW TRACK...DEAN WILL SPEND A LITTLE LESS
TIME OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND WILL PASS A LITTLE CLOSER TO
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE 24-36
HOUR PERIOD. AS A RESULT...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0300Z 18.4N 86.0W 140 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 18.7N 88.6W 140 KT...INLAND OVER YUCATAN
24HR VT 22/0000Z 19.2N 92.1W 85 KT...BAY OF CAMPECHE
36HR VT 22/1200Z 19.6N 95.6W 95 KT...BAY OF CAMPECHE
48HR VT 23/0000Z 19.6N 99.1W 30 KT...INLAND OVER MEXICO
72HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING WESTWARD FROM CIUDAD DE CARMEN TO CHILITEPEC. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF
BELIZE...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO
SOUTHWARD TO CHILITEPEC. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY
BEEN COMPLETED. PREPARATIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FROM WEST OF CHILITEPEC WESTWARD TO
VERACRUZ MEXICO...AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM
VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
PROVINCES OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND ISLA DE LA
JUVENTUD.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 86.0W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 914 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 90SW 125NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 200SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 86.0W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 85.1W
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.7N 88.6W...INLAND OVER YUCATAN
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 75SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.2N 92.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 30SE 25SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 75SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.6N 95.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.6N 99.1W...INLAND MAINLAND MEXICO
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 86.0W
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE DEAN BEARING DOWN ON THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF BELIZE
AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO CHILITEPEC.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.
PREPARATIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF CHILITEPEC WESTWARD TO VERACRUZ MEXICO...AND A HURRICANE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
PROVINCES OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND ISLA DE LA
JUVENTUD.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED BY AN
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL
MEXICO AND ABOUT 260 MILES...420 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAMPECHE
MEXICO.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE EYE OF DEAN WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A FEW HOURS. DEAN WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND LIKELY REACH THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST
AS DEAN CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE AIRCRAFT DATA IS
911 MB...26.90 INCHES.
DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...18.5 N...86.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.
August 20, 2007
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS ARE PREVENTING THE RECEIPT OF MOST DATA FROM
THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A
1930Z VORTEX FIX WAS RECEIVED. AT THAT TIME THE MINIMUM PRESSURE
WAS 918 MB...WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 151 KT. EARLIER IN
THE FLIGHT...A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 123 KT WAS OBSERVED. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 127 KT AT 18Z. BASED ON
THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 130 KT. ALL OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE SHOWS ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE DEEP WARM WATERS
OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND DEAN COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE
STATUS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. A 15Z MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A PARTIAL
OUTER EYEWALL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO
INDUCE ANY WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT TRAVERSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND
APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH AGAIN BEFORE ITS FINAL LANDFALL.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/17. DEAN IN EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A TRACK
BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTWARD-
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED SOUTH AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED
SOUTHWARD. ALL THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS TAKE THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY
OF DEAN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL
MEXICO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS A LEFTWARD BEND OF THE
TRACK AFTER FINAL LANDFALL. I DO NOT ACTUALLY EXPECT A WELL-
DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION TO EXIST AT 72 HOURS...BUT A POINT IS
PROVIDED SO THAT IT DOESN'T APPEAR THAT THE TRACK ENDS IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/2100Z 18.2N 84.2W 130 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 18.5N 86.7W 140 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 19.3N 90.2W 75 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 22/0600Z 20.2N 93.6W 85 KT
48HR VT 22/1800Z 21.0N 97.0W 95 KT
72HR VT 23/1800Z 21.5N 103.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN TO VERACRUZ.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN TO VERACRUZ.
AT 5 PM EDT...ALL WARNINGS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ARE DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. AT 5
PM EDT...ALL OTHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN CUBA ARE DISCONTINUED.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF
BELIZE...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE
BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO
CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 84.2W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 918 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 85SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 250SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 84.2W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 83.2W
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.5N 86.7W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 85SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.3N 90.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 50SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 20.2N 93.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 75SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.0N 97.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 50SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.5N 103.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 84.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 31
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN EXPECTED TO STRIKE THE YUCATAN
TONIGHT...COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE BEFORE LANDFALL...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN EXPECTED TO STRIKE THE YUCATAN
TONIGHT...COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE BEFORE LANDFALL...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN TO VERACRUZ.
AT 5 PM EDT...ALL WARNINGS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ARE DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. AT 5
PM EDT...ALL OTHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN CUBA ARE DISCONTINUED.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF
BELIZE...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE
BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO
CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES...
435 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND AND A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE
THIS EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY...AND DEAN IS LIKELY TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 918 MB...27.11 INCHES.
DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN
HONDURAS...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...18.2 N...84.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
Martinique Tourism Industry Withstands Hurricane Dean
St. Lucia 'open for business' after Hurricane Dean
Good news coming out of the Lesser Antilles already:
Hurricane Dean passed St Lucia as a Category 2 storm, though has since grown to a Category 4, and may even reach the maximum force, Category 5, before it reaches Mexico.
Airports in the north and south of St Lucia are have reopened, roads hit by landslides have been cleared and electricity has been restored to the island.
Hotels also reported no significant damage to their properties, though they have been spending the weekend cleaning-up after the storm.
"We're thankful that the island is back to full operational capacity, due in part to the spirit of the St. Lucian people and the fact that the hurricane passed the island in its early stages," said Maria Fowell, St Lucia director of tourism.
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
This is the supplemental advisory from the NHC.
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF
BELIZE...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE
BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO
CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR ABOUT 330
MILES...530 KM...EAST OF BELIZE CITY.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE
WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND DEAN IS
LIKELY TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE PRIOR TO MAKING
LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 924 MB...27.29 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.
DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER JAMAICA WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF UP TO 20 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND NICARAGUA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...18.0 N...83.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.
Martinique Photos
A flickr user named virekuk has a set of photos up showing the damage on Martinique - you can clearly see that the banana crop got wiped out:
Hurricane Dean: Readers' updates
Some comments from BBC website users:
Ruth Howard, Kingston, Jamaica
"horrible but manageable" is a pretty accurate quote for Jamaica it seems. No one died in Jamaica due to the storm (according to current news accounts), but there is plenty to clean up and rebuild no doubt.
UK tourists escape Hurricane Dean
From the Guardian, some news for our UK readers:
With the island's main airports closed, tourists on Sunday had little choice than to seek shelter in resorts with "hurricane-proof walls" - schools, churches and indoor sports arenas - and hope for the best.
But with the storm's path passing south of Jamaica, early reports indicate that while the main holiday resorts experienced heavy winds and rain, there were no reports of any injury to British visitors.
The more southerly direction of Hurricane Dean now expected may also mean that the main holiday areas of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula are likely to miss the worst of the storm in the coming days.
But focus is now being drawn towards the Cayman Islands where tourists have been evacuated and a curfew imposed.
The hurricane is expected to pass to the south of the British territory later on Monday, but the Government said it still posed a "significant threat" to the islands.
Cayman Islands Governor Stuart Jack said all but 1,500 tourists had been moved out by yesterday afternoon and 19 storm shelters had been set up for anyone without a safe place to go.
Hurricane Dean Photo Gallery
Some pretty good photos from various islands on from the Herald Sun (Australia) website:
Hurricane Dean kills 3 people in Haiti
From Itar-Tass:
Yucatan Peninsula Awaits Strengthening Hurricane
From the Washington Post:
Dean pelted the Cayman Islands, which are British territory, with strong wind and rain, but appears to have spared the resort haven from the worst of its fury, according to early reports from the islands. Cayman Islands Gov. Stuart Jack told reporters that all but 1,500 tourists in the territory have been evacuated.
Jamaica had been tensing for a cataclysmic storm--some Internet sites dubbed Dean "Hell Storm Jamaica" before its arrival--but the large eye of the hurricane passed south of the island and no deaths have been reported.
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT WILL BE AT 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE
MEANTIME...RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A SINGLE EYEWALL THAT HAS
BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITH COLDER TOPS IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL
BE HELD AT 130 KT...BUT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEAN
IS APPROACHING CATEGORY FIVE STATUS...AND IT IS EXPECTED REACH THAT
THRESHOLD LATER TODAY OVER THE DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE
YUCATAN...DEAN SHOULD RETAIN HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE CROSSING
AND A HURRICANE WARNING IS THEREFORE REQUIRED FOR THE WESTERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICIT IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST BELOW...DEAN COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE AGAIN BEFORE ITS
FINAL LANDFALL.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/18. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING...MODEL GUIDANCE...OR OFFICIAL
FORECAST. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A TRACK BETWEEN WEST AND
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WESTWARD-BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITHIN A VERY NARROW GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/1500Z 17.9N 82.4W 130 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 18.2N 85.1W 140 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 19.0N 88.6W 100 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 22/0000Z 19.9N 92.2W 80 KT
48HR VT 22/1200Z 21.0N 95.5W 95 KT
72HR VT 23/1200Z 22.5N 102.0W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE
WARNING SOUTHWARD FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE BORDER WITH GUATEMALA. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF BELIZE.
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR JAMAICA WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE NORTHWARD
TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 82.4W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 85SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 350SE 275SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 82.4W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 81.5W
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.2N 85.1W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 85SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.0N 88.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 50SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.9N 92.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 75SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.0N 95.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 75SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.5N 102.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 82.4W
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 30
...DEAN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE
WARNING SOUTHWARD FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE BORDER WITH GUATEMALA. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF BELIZE.
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR JAMAICA WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE NORTHWARD
TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.4 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES...
200 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 385 MILES...615 KM...
EAST OF BELIZE CITY.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE
WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND DEAN IS
LIKELY TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE PRIOR TO MAKING
LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 925 MB...27.32 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.
DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER JAMAICA WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF UP TO 20 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND NICARAGUA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...17.9 N...82.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN HEADED FOR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN HEADED FOR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM BELIZE CITY
NORTHWARD TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
BELIZE FROM SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA
BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST OR ABOUT 440
MILES...710 KM...EAST OF BELIZE CITY.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE
VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH CATEGORY
FIVE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. GRAND CAYMAN REPORTED WIND GUSTS
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 926 MB...27.34 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 11
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...17.8 N...81.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.
Hurricane Dean Satellite image from the US Navy
US Navy Dean page - good images and track map here.
Hurrican Dean Infrared Image
From the University Of Wisconsin (GOES East):
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LAST AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION AGAIN
INDICATED A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL STRUCTURE. THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND SPEED WAS 145 KT WITH AN SFMR SURFACE WIND MEASUREMENT OF 125
KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. A GPS DROPSONDE MEASURED A SURFACE
WIND SPEED OF 133 KT IN THE SAME QUADRANT...BUT BASED ON
LOWER-LAYER AVERAGES FROM THE SONDE...THIS PROBABLY DOES NOT QUITE
CORRESPOND TO A 1-MINUTE AVERAGE SURFACE WIND. BASED ON ALL OF
THESE DATA THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 130 KT. DEAN IS MOVING
OVER WATERS OF EXTREMELY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT WITH WEAK SHEAR
AND EXHIBITS A CLASSIC UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN. DEAN
CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN INTO A CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE TRANSIT OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ROUGHLY FOLLOWS THE
INLAND DECAY SHIPS MODEL. DEAN IS FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND THE GFDL AND HWRF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT IT
COULD REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE MAKING ITS FINAL
LANDFALL. THIS IS NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BUT
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN THE 48-HOUR
FORECAST AND LANDFALL.
AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS OR SO GIVE
ESSENTIALLY A DUE WESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD
SPEED...270/18. AS A MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE CONTINUES
MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE FLOW TO THE
SOUTH OF A STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR DEAN.
THEREFORE...A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE GFDL...U.K.
MET...NOGAPS...AND GFS CONSENSUS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE TRACKS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/0900Z 17.7N 80.7W 130 KT
12HR VT 20/1800Z 18.1N 83.5W 135 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 18.8N 87.0W 140 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 19.6N 90.5W 75 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 22/0600Z 20.5N 94.0W 90 KT...BAY OF CAMPECHE
72HR VT 23/0600Z 22.0N 100.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM BELIZE CITY
NORTHWARD TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE
BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 80.7W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 926 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 75SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 350SE 275SW 275NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 80.7W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 79.8W
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.1N 83.5W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 75SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.8N 87.0W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 75SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.6N 90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 75SE 60SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 20.5N 94.0W...BAY OF CAMPECHE
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 75SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.0N 100.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 80.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 29
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DEAN MOVING SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...HEADED FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM BELIZE CITY
NORTHWARD TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE
BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...
185 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 495 MILES...795
KM...EAST OF BELIZE CITY.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH CATEGORY
FIVE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 926 MB...27.34 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES IN
JAMAICA ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9
TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...17.7 N...80.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.
JAMAICA OFFICE OF DISASTER PREPAREDNESS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
The Jamaica ODPEM press release web page:
http://odpem.org.jm/infopage.htm
Miami Herald blog
The Miami Herald had a "Storm Reports" blog and it is actually pretty good.
Hurricane Dean seen from space
Hurricane Dean seen from the International Space Station:
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
THE EYE OF DEAN HAS BEEN PASSING JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA SINCE ABOUT
1900 UTC AND HAS JUST CROSSED THE LONGITUDE OF NEGRIL ON THE
WESTERN END OF THE ISLAND. THE CENTER CAME WITHIN ABOUT 20 N MI OF
PORTLAND POINT ON THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST...CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO KINGSTON. WHILE PASSING BY JAMAICA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THE EYE DIAMETER WAS GRADUALLY
SHRINKING. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARRIVED IN THE
EYE OF DEAN AT 0130 UTC AND REVEALED THAT THE PRESSURE HAD FALLEN
TO NEAR 925 MB...AND THAT DEAN NOW HAS A SINGLE EYEWALL AT A
DIAMETER OF ABOUT 15 N MI. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SFMR
HAVE BEEN 121 KT...AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 143
KT...BOTH OF WHICH SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT
125 KT.
DEAN IS HEADING TOWARD 280 DEGREES AT ABOUT 17 KT WITH STEERING
PROVIDED BY A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL GET EVEN
STRONGER AND MOVE A LITTLE WESTWARD WITH DEAN...MEANING THAT DEAN
WILL PROBABLY MOVE IN A RATHER STRAIGHT LINE UNTIL FINAL LANDFALL
IN MEXICO. OVERALL THE MODELS HAVE AGAIN EDGED A LITTLE
SOUTHWARD...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NOAA
GULFSTREAM-IV JET CONDUCTED A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION THIS
EVENING TO PROVIDE DATA FOR THE 0000 UTC MODEL CYCLE. THE JET WILL
CONTINUE TO FLY MISSIONS EVERY 12 HOURS TO COLLECT DATA THROUGH THE
12Z MODEL CYCLE TUESDAY MORNING.
ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WHERE THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK AND THE
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VERY HIGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT
AND INDICATES THAT DEAN COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE STATUS DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THE HURRICANE WILL WEAKEN WHILE OVER YUCATAN IN
PROPORTION TO JUST HOW LONG IT SPENDS OVER LAND. THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF LIKEWISE DEPENDS ON
THE EXACT TRACK...AND THAT WINDOW HAS BEEN SHORTENING WITH THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFTS IN TRACK. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATED IN
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST...IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT DEAN COULD
RESTRENGTHEN AND AGAIN REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO FINAL
LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/0300Z 17.6N 78.8W 125 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 18.0N 81.4W 130 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 18.5N 84.9W 140 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 19.2N 88.4W 105 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 22/0000Z 19.8N 91.9W 80 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 21.0N 99.0W 55 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
...DEAN MOVING AWAY FROM JAMAICA...COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE
...DEAN MOVING AWAY FROM JAMAICA...COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE TODAY...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM BELIZE CITY
NORTHWARD TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 2 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI IS
DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF BELIZE FROM SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE
BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES...
240 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. DEAN COULD
REACH CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 926 MB...27.34 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREAS
IN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES
IN JAMAICA SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 9 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HAITI. EASTERN CUBA COULD
RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...17.7 N...79.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.
At least 4 more deaths attributed to Dean
This quote is at the very end of a NY Times (AP) article:
So that is at least 7 confirmed deaths due to Dean, although the article mentions eight.
August 19, 2007
Jamaica Gleaner, other Jamaica resources
If you are looking for news out of Jamaica the Jamaica Gleaner is a good place to start. There is also this blog from Go-Jamaica, and Power 106 FM Radio.
Jamaica Braces for Direct Hit by Hurricane
From the NY Times:
In some flood-prone communities on the island’s southeastern coast, residents said they were going to ride out the hurricane at home because the awful conditions they encountered in the shelters during the 2004 hurricane. “Me not moving,” said a woman who shares a simple wooden house with 13 relatives, according to The Jamaica Observer.
“If the ship goes down, we’ll go down with the ship,” said Oran Hall, 32, a grocery store owner from the fishing town of Port Royal near Kingston, one of many areas that in the past has refused evacuation orders. The shelters are so horrid, he said, that “people would prefer to die in their homes.”
Tourists in Jamaica and throughout the Caribbean crowded into airports on Saturday to fly out before the storm. Additional flights were scheduled. Cayman Airways added 15 to Miami, which were quickly sold out. But not everybody could escape.
Hurricane destroys Martinique, Guadeloupe bananas
From Reuters:
Eric de Lucy, president of the banana producers union for the two French islands, estimated the cost of the damage to be between 100 and 120 million euros ($134.5 to $161.4 million) and said he would be asking the French government for help.
"There are considerable economic consequences for this sector because there is not a single banana plant left standing in Martinique and more than 80 percent of the banana plantations in Guadeloupe are affected," he told France Info radio.
Powerful Hurricane Dean menaces Jamaica
From Reuters:
Tempers flared in shops where Jamaicans scrambled for last-minute emergency supplies as Dean began to lash the mountainous island with heavy rain. The government opened shelters and urged residents of low-lying areas to evacuate.
The hurricane was an "extremely dangerous" Category 4 storm, the second-highest on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale, and could strengthen into a rare and potentially catastrophic Category 5 near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.
5 PM EST Updates, August 19
The 5 PM EST NHC updates are posted. At 5 PM the eye of Hurricane Dean is just south of the coast of Jamaica, and the whole island is in the swath of the storm. The track is still a little further south, eventually over the Yucatan peninsula, and possible as a Category 5 storm.
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT COMPLETED ITS MISSION...FINDING PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 144 KT...WITH PEAK SFMR WINDS OF 121 KT. ONE
OF THE LAST EYEWALL DROPSONDES GAVE A SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 118 KT
DERIVED FROM THE LOWEST 150 METERS OF THE SOUNDING. IN SPITE OF A
GRADUAL PRESSURE RISE...THESE DATA INDICATE THAT 125 KT IS STILL A
GOOD INTENSITY ESTIMATE. CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS ARE APPARENT IN
MICROWAVE...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE...AND AIRCRAFT DATA...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS NOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER EYEWALL. SHORT-TERM
INTENSITY CHANGES WILL BE GOVERNED BY INNER-CORE PROCESSES THAT ARE
DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
WOULD FAVOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...AND DEAN COULD VERY WELL
BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/17. THERE IS NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST THINKING...ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING
SOUTHWARD...WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS BUILDING THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH DEAN. THE UPPER LOW IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES WESTWARD AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
MAJOR PLAYER IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH...BUT STILL LIES TO
THE NORTH OF ALL THE MAJOR MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE HWRF. ALTHOUGH I
CANNOT EXPLAIN WHY...THE DETERMINISTIC RUN OF THE GFS IS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE ALMOST UNIFORMLY ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE. BECAUSE MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS LIE TO THE SOUTH OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...
SOME ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK ARE POSSIBLE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/2100Z 17.3N 76.8W 125 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 17.8N 79.4W 130 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 18.4N 83.0W 135 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 19.0N 86.5W 140 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 19.9N 90.0W 80 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 22/1800Z 21.5N 96.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 23/1800Z 23.0N 101.0W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM DANGRIEGA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
MEXICO.
AT 5 PM EDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER IS REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
AT 5 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE
NORTHWARD IS DISCONTINUED.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN JAMAICA
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. PREPARATIONS IN THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CHETUMAL TO SAN FELIPE ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN BELIZE...AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN BELIZE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
BELIZE...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 76.8W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 75SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 420SE 240SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 76.8W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 76.0W
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.8N 79.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 75SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.4N 83.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.0N 86.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.9N 90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.5N 96.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 23.0N 101.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 76.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 27
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DEAN SCRAPING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
JAMAICA...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM DANGRIEGA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
MEXICO.
AT 5 PM EDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER IS REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
AT 5 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE
NORTHWARD IS DISCONTINUED.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN JAMAICA
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. PREPARATIONS IN THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CHETUMAL TO SAN FELIPE ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN BELIZE...AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN BELIZE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...
80 KM...SOUTH OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 320 MILES...515 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A MOTION
BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE PASSING ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAMAICA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEAN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TOMORROW.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES.
EASTERN CUBA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...17.3 N...76.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF
142 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE CURRENT
ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 125 KT. CENTRAL PRESSURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
RISING...THE EYE DIAMETER HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS...AND THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
STRUCTURE. IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE COULD BE SOME BROADENING OF
THE WIND FIELD WITH FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH AS THE CORE OF DEAN
APPROACHES JAMAICA...BUT FURTHER STRENGTHENING OVER THE DEEP WARM
WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 280/16...WITH SOME EMBEDDED WOBBLES. AS
THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD AHEAD OF DEAN...THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE CONTROLLED LARGELY BY A DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/1500Z 17.0N 75.1W 125 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 17.5N 77.7W 125 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 18.3N 81.2W 130 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 19.0N 84.5W 140 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 19.9N 88.2W 120 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 22/1200Z 21.5N 95.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 23.0N 100.0W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 26
...OUTER BANDS OF DEAN MOVING OVER JAMAICA...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FROM CHETUMAL TO SAN FELIPE ON THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND LA HABANA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES...PINAR
DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...
CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM WEST OF THE HAITI-DOMINICAN BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH
OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.1 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...
210 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 215 MILES...
345 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.
DEAN IS MOVING WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A MOTION BETWEEN WEST
AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE VERY NEAR THE ISLAND OF
JAMAICA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 926 MB...27.34 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES.
EASTERN CUBA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...17.0 N...75.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
Hurricane Dean photos on Flickr
There are some good photos on Flickr for Hurricane Dean:
Hurricane Dean 5 AM EST Update, August 19
The 5 AM updates are out from the NHC and here is our reading: Dean is a major hurricane, and while it is showing some wobbling and a little internal disorganization, it could and probably will become stronger and continue on a general track very close to Jamaica. Hurricane Warnings are up for Jamaica and The Cayman Islands.
We also have a new section up for Hurricane Dean video.
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
"IT IS IMPERATIVE NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
CONSIDERING THE MARGIN OF ERROR OF NHC PREDICTIONS...THE CORE OF
THIS LARGE HURRICANE COULD EASILY BE 30-50 N MI ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE FORECAST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO."
THE LAST PENETRATION OF THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE BY THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS AT 0511 UTC. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 921 MB BY DROPSONDE AND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 130
KT OUTBOUND IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
LESS DISTINCT EYE WITH SOME WARMING OF THE SURROUNDING CLOUD
TOPS...ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH GOOD
SYMMETRY AND STRONG OUTFLOW OVER ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 125 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH MAY
BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE. IF INDEED DEAN HAS WEAKENED...THIS
IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF INNER CORE PROCESSES...AND IS PROBABLY ONLY
A SHORT-TERM CHANGE. THE LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
ENVIRONMENT STILL APPEAR TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...
SO....ASIDE FROM INNER-CORE-RELATED FLUCTUATIONS...DEAN HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO ATTAIN CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFDL...
SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSSE GUIDANCE. INTERACTION WITH THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WILL CAUSE WEAKENING...AND THE AMOUNT OF RE-STRENGTHENING
OF DEAN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DEPENDS MAINLY ON HOW
LONG THE SYSTEM STAYS OVER WATER BEFORE MAKING ITS FINAL LANDFALL.
ASIDE FROM THE TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES THAT ARE COMMON WITH SUCH INTENSE
HURRICANES...THE MOTION HAS BEEN BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST
OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/16. AS
THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD AHEAD OF DEAN...THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE CONTROLLED LARGELY BY A DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANY
CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST DURING THE FIRST
48 HOURS OR SO SHOULD BE CONSIDERED COSMETIC. WE HAVE SHIFTED THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD IN THE LATTER PART OF
THE PERIOD...BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS SHOWN BY THE GFS...U.K. MET.
AND ECMWF MODELS.
IT IS IMPERATIVE NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
CONSIDERING THE MARGIN OF ERROR OF NHC PREDICTIONS...THE CORE OF
THIS LARGE HURRICANE COULD EASILY BE 30-50 N MI ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE FORECAST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO MAKE A
POSITION AND INTENSITY FIX ON DEAN AROUND 1200 UTC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0900Z 16.6N 73.4W 125 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 17.1N 76.0W 130 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 17.9N 79.5W 130 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 18.7N 83.0W 135 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 19.5N 86.6W 140 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 21.0N 93.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 23/0600Z 22.5N 99.0W 50 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 24/0600Z 23.5N 103.0W 25 KT...INLAND
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM WEST OF THE HAITI-DOMINICAN BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
AT 5 AM EDT....0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH
OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...
CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 73.4W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 921 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 210SE 150SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 73.4W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 72.6W
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.1N 76.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.9N 79.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.7N 83.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.5N 86.6W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.0N 93.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 22.5N 99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 23.5N 103.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 73.4W
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 25
...DEAN CONTINUES HEADING FOR JAMAICA...
...DEAN CONTINUES HEADING FOR JAMAICA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM WEST OF THE HAITI-DOMINICAN BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
AT 5 AM EDT....0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH
OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...
CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST OR ABOUT 245 MILES...
395 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 155 MILES...
250 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS JUST
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND WILL BE NEAR JAMAICA LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THE
REMAINDER OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...16.6 N...73.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.
Video of Hurricane Dean from Guadeloupe
A couple of amateur videos showing the effects of Hurricane Dean on the French island of Guadeloupe:
Video of Dean from Martinique
This is listed on You Tube as raw footage from the AP:
And this looks like some amateur footage:
Hurricane Dean Video from St. Lucia
Here is some amateur footage from St. Lucia:
Hurricane Dean ravages the Caribbean
From the Telegraph - AP photo of Martinique:
Hurricane Dean could become a Category Five monster as it gathers force in the Caribbean this weekend, forecasters said.
Winds have already reached Category Four speeds of 145mph, claiming the lives of at least three people as it headed towards Jamaica - where about 5,000 Britons are on holiday.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami warned it could achieve the highest category with winds of 150mph before it reaches Mexico on Monday.
In America, Nasa shortened today's spacewalk on the Endeavour shuttle to allow it to return before the storm arrives at the Houston mission control on Wednesday.
A few photos from Martinique
A few photos from Martinique showing the effect of Hurricane Dean on the island, from StormCarib.
11 PM updates
The 11 PM updates showed a slightly wobbly Dean - winds had dropped a little and the eye was less organized, but the pressure was continuing to drop and the forecast was for more strengthening. The models are also all agreeing on the track of the storm and the NHC feels confident it - which is now just slightly south of Jamaica and then over the Yucatan peninsula. We will have the 5 AM EST updates soon and send out an alert then. If you were planning on traveling to Jamaica or the Cayman Islands you should contact your airline and hotel.
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
THE INNER CORE OF DEAN APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING SOME CHANGES. RADAR
IMAGERY ONBOARD THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DEPICTS
CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS AT RADII OF ABOUT 10 AND 20 N MI...WITH THE
OUTER EYEWALL RECENTLY BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED.
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO REVEALED DOUBLE MAXIMA. WIND DATA AT
FLIGHT LEVEL...FROM THE SFMR...AND FROM DROPSONDES DIRECTLY SUPPORT
AN INTENSITY OF NO MORE THAN ABOUT 115 KT. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE...HOWEVER...HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DROPPING AND WAS MOST
RECENTLY MEASURED AT 918 MB. ASSUMING THAT THE MAXIMUM WIND HAS
NOT BEEN SAMPLED...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 125 KT...BUT
THIS COULD BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE. THE AIRCRAFT WILL CONTINUE
TO INVESTIGATE DEAN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS TO SEE IF THE WINDS COME
BACK UP.
DEAN WOBBLED WESTWARD EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT THE LONGER-TERM
MOTION TOWARD 280 DEGREES AT ABOUT 15 KT SEEMS TO HAVE RESUMED. AS
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT
WAS EAST OF FLORIDA A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND HEADED QUICKLY WESTWARD. THAT LOW IS FORECAST TO
BE REPLACED BY A LARGE AND STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD
REINFORCE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF DEAN...THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...OVER SOME PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODELS HAVE
IN GENERAL SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE GFDL WHICH IS
NO LONGER THE NORTHERN OUTLIER. THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FIVE-DAY FORECAST
PERIOD...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS INCREASING. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A TAD TO THE SOUTH AND IS
VERY NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE
DOUBLE EYEWALL STRUCTURE...BUT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS QUITE LOW AND
THE INNER CORE COULD QUICKLY REORGANIZE AT ANY TIME...SO ANY DIP IN
THE INTENSITY WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT-LIVED. THROUGHOUT ITS STAY IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...ATMOSPHERIC AND
OCEANIC CONDITIONS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE
INTENSITY AS SUGGESTED BY ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. SINCE THE
NEW TRACK FORECAST RESULTS IN A LONGER STAY OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED
SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BUT STILL INDICATES
A MAJOR HURRICANE AT FINAL LANDFALL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0300Z 16.2N 71.7W 125 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 16.8N 74.3W 130 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 17.6N 77.8W 130 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 18.4N 81.4W 135 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 19.3N 85.1W 140 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 21.0N 92.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 23.0N 98.0W 100 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 24/0000Z 24.0N 101.0W 30 KT...INLAND
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE
NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE
OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 11 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE
AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA
JUVENTUD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 71.7W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 918 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 210SE 150SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 71.7W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 71.0W
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.8N 74.3W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.6N 77.8W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.4N 81.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.3N 85.1W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.0N 92.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 23.0N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 24.0N 101.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 71.7W
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
...DEAN HEADING TOWARD JAMAICA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA
AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 2 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
BARAHONA TO THE SOUTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER...AND HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM EAST OF CABO CAUCEDO
TO CABO ENGANO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM CABO
CAUCEDO WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF
PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...
CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING WESTERN
CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES...
480 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 155 MILES...
245 KM...SOUTH OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28
KM/HR...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL BE NEAR JAMAICA LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY MEASURED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THE REMAINDER OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA
COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...16.4 N...72.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
August 18, 2007
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF DEAN
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INTO THE EYE MEASURED 930 MB AND THE REPORTED WINDS SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE CREW OBSERVED A
DOUBLE EYEWALL AND THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN SHORT TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION IS OUTSTANDING WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE...NUMEROUS
SPIRAL BANDS AND AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW. WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
SHEAR AND VERY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
AND YUCATAN...SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. IN
FACT...DEAN COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE AT ANY TIME BEFORE IT REACHES YUCATAN.
THE HURRICANE IS HEADING ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OR 285
DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST GLOBAL
MODEL RUNS. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK
OR SPEED THROUGH 5 DAYS...BUT PERHAPS WITH A SLIGHT TURN MORE TO THE
WEST IN A DAY OR SO. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT BRINGS THE
HURRICANE OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES
ALONG WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND KEEPS DEAN IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY DAY FOUR. THERE
COULD BE VERY UNCERTAIN DAYS AHEAD SINCE THE GFDL HAS HAD A VERY
RELIABLE TRACK RECORD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/2100Z 16.1N 70.2W 130 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 16.8N 72.6W 135 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 17.7N 76.0W 135 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 18.5N 79.3W 125 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 83.0W 140 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 21.5N 90.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 23.0N 96.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 23/1800Z 24.5N 101.5W 40 KT...INLAND
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE
NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ALSO EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY
EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 70.2W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 45SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT.......200NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 270SE 180SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 70.2W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 69.4W
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.8N 72.6W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.7N 76.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.5N 79.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N 83.0W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.5N 90.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 23.0N 96.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 24.5N 101.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 70.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 23
...OUTER FRINGES OF HURRICANE DEAN LASHING THE SOUTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE
NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ALSO EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY
EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST OR ABOUT 455 MILES...
735 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 165 MILES...
270 KM...SOUTH OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TODAY AND WILL BE NEAR JAMAICA ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM. PUNTA CANA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS BEEN
EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HAITI WITH MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH
ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...16.1 N...70.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.
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More deaths attributed to Dean
This sadly is from an Australian press account:
So that would make three people including the man on St. Lucia. I have not seen much news yet out of Martinique however and not sure if there were any fatalities there attributed to the storm.
St. Lucia photos
The always excellent StormCarib website has a page where people have posted photos from St. Lucia.
Hurricane Dean Gathers Strength as It Heads Toward Jamaica
From Bloomberg.com:
The Category 4 hurricane's center was 755 miles (1,210 kilometers) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and heading west at 18 miles (30 kilometers) per hour, the hurricane center said in a 10 p.m. New York time advisory yesterday. Sustained winds were reaching about 145 mph.
Hurricane conditions could reach southern parts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic today, the center said. The storm is likely to descend on Jamaica tomorrow.
``Jamaica is the next land mass that is looking at a strong likelihood of a direct hit,'' said Dennis Feltgen, meteorologist and spokesman for the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami.
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20...CORRECTED
...CORRECTED ERRONEOUS INDICATOR OF INLAND AT 96 HOURS IN TABLE...
DEAN HAS BEEN STEADILY INTENSIFYING TONIGHT. THE U.S. AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MEASURED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 138 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 124 KT AT THE SURFACE. IN
ADDITION...THE AIRCRAFT IS EQUIPPED WITH THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY
MICROWAVE RADIOMETER WHICH MEASURED WINDS AS STRONG AS 123 KT THIS
EVENING. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN
DROPPING...WITH THE LATEST AIRCRAFT MEASUREMENT BEING 937 MB. THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 125 KT...WHICH IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THE
STORM HAS BECOME A GOOD BIT LARGER...AND WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
EXPANDED IN ALL QUADRANTS. DEAN MIGHT ALSO HAVE A CLOSE ENCOUNTER
WITH NOAA BUOY 42059...LESS THAN 100 N MI DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
CENTER OF THE HURRICANE...IN A FEW HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/16...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
BEFORE. THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...AND
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS ON A TRACK TOWARD
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS NOTABLY
DISAGREE AND HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH...INCLUDING
THE NORTHERN OUTLYING GFDL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...HOWEVER...HAS
NOT CHANGED NOTICEABLY...SINCE THE MODELS MIGHT SHIFT BACK THE
OTHER WAY. THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODELS AT DAYS FOUR AND
FIVE IS INDICATIVE OF THE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES TYPICAL OF THOSE
LONGER FORECAST RANGES. THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TEXT AND
GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS INCLUDED IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE ALSO REFLECT
THESE UNCERTAINTIES. THE CHANCES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
SIMILAR AT EACH LOCATION ALONG THE ENTIRE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
COASTS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO DIFFERENTIATE
THE RISK OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BETWEEN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS.
THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF DEAN...GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR AND WARM WATERS
AHEAD...WILL LIKELY BE CONTROLLED BY INTERNAL STRUCTURAL CHANGES
AND/OR BRIEF INTERACTIONS WITH LAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR AN INTENSITY NEAR THE CATEGORY 4/5 THRESHOLD THROUGH 72
HOURS...AND IS ONLY LOWERED ON DAYS 4 AND 5 DUE TO POTENTIAL
PASSAGE OVER YUCATAN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/0300Z 14.9N 65.9W 125 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.5N 68.4W 130 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 16.4N 71.7W 135 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 17.3N 75.0W 135 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 18.2N 78.4W 135 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.0N 85.5W 140 KT
96HR VT 22/0000Z 22.5N 91.5W 110 KT
120HR VT 23/0000Z 25.0N 97.5W 110 KT...NEAR COAST OF MEXICO
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
AT 11 PM AST...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI...FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FROM
PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
AT 11 PM AST...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND ALL TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS....U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THESE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED ON SATURDAY MORNING.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE
PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 65.9W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT.......180NE 120SE 100SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..375NE 210SE 75SW 375NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 65.9W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 65.1W
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.5N 68.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.4N 71.7W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.3N 75.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.2N 78.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 25.0N 97.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 65.9W
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 20
...CATEGORY FOUR DEAN INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...
AT 11 PM AST...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI...FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FROM
PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
AT 11 PM AST...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND ALL TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS....U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THESE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED ON SATURDAY MORNING.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE
PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST OR ABOUT 755 MILES...
1210 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 240 MILES...
390 KM...SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH
OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY
SATURDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 937
MB...27.67 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...14.9 N...65.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.
HURRICANE DEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING HURRICANE DEAN INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 145 MPH...CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE.
August 17, 2007
Satellite Image of Hurricane Dean
From the NOAA
Hurricane Dean strengthens to Category 3 storm
From the CBC, at least one person dead on St. Lucia:
The U.S. National Hurricane Centre in Miami upgraded Dean to a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 205 km/h, and higher gusts.
As it passed between Martinique and St. Lucia, the hurricane caused flooding, downed trees, ripped-off roofs and knocked-out power.
"We don't have a roof … everything is exposed. We tried to save what we could," said Josephine Marcelus of Morne Rouge, a town in northern Martinique. "We sealed ourselves in one room, praying that the hurricane stops blowing over Martinique."
One man in St. Lucia was reported by police to have drowned in a swollen river when he attempted to retrieve a cow.
5 PM EST Updates, August 17
The 5 PM updates from the NHC are all posted below. For the next 36 hours or so Dean will probably not be threatening land, and most of the watches and warnings for the Lesser Antilles are being discontinued, but the takeaway line from the 5 PM updates is this:
Jamaica is still right in the path as of this update.
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TONIGHT.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO
BEATA TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE
PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND
DOMINICA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST.
LUCIA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 64.5W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT.......160NE 120SE 60SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 64.5W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 63.6W
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.5N 67.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 60SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.4N 70.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 75SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.3N 74.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 75SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 80SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.0N 84.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 80SW 160NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 90.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 24.5N 96.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 64.5W
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE EARLIER TODAY
INDICATED THAT DEAN REACHED 110 KNOTS. NEXT PLANE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH DEAN AROUND 00 UTC TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW
AN EYE FEATURE...NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS
WHICH ARE STILL AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. ALTHOUGH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DUE TO EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN LOW AND THE OCEAN TEMPERATURE INCREASES WESTWARD. THIS
WOULD CALL FOR AN OVERALL UPWARD INTENSITY TREND. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE SHIPS....GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS. THE
STEERING PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WESTWARD AND BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THIS
PATTERN WOULD MAINTAIN DEAN OVER THE CARIBBEAN ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN YUCATAN AND THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE GFDL SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ACROSS EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS
OUTSIDE THE OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IT CAN NOT BE RULE
OUT COMPLETELY SINCE THIS MODEL HAS AN EXCELLENT FORECAST TRACK
HISTORY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ALL INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/2100Z 15.0N 64.5W 110 KT
12HR VT 18/0600Z 15.5N 67.4W 115 KT
24HR VT 18/1800Z 16.4N 70.8W 120 KT
36HR VT 19/0600Z 17.3N 74.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 77.0W 130 KT
72HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 84.0W 130 KT
96HR VT 21/1800Z 22.0N 90.0W 100 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 22/1800Z 24.5N 96.0W 105 KT
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 19
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN RACING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TONIGHT.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO
BEATA TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE
PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND
DOMINICA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST.
LUCIA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST OR ABOUT 840 MILES...
1355 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 260 MILES...
415 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO REACH DEAN TONIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...15.0 N...64.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.
Hurricane Dean 11 AM EST update, August 17
Dean is through the Lesser Antilles and now in the open water of the Caribbean Sea where the storm is strengthening. Hurricane warnings are still up for Guadeloupe, Martinique and Dominica but will most likely be discontinued soon. The DR, Jamaica and Cayman Islands need to monitor Dean closely. The forecast track has been brought a little further north, and at this time is projected to cut straight across Jamaica. Let's hope that changes. The 11 AM EST Public Advisory and Forecast Discussion have been posted. The Forecast Advisory is below. We will be posting more news and hopefully pictures as they become available.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE...DOMINICA...
AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST.
MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA HAS
BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CABO BEATA
TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 11AM AST...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND
ITS DEPENDENCIES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 62.6W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 50SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 62.6W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 61.7W
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.0N 65.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.8N 69.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 75SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.7N 72.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 75SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.5N 75.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.5N 82.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.5N 88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 94.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 62.6W
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
THE CENTER OF DEAN CROSSED THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING BETWEEN
ST. LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE AS INDICATED BY THE MARTINIQUE RADAR. AT
0842 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MARTINIQUE REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 66 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 90 KNOTS. AN AIR FORCE
PLANE REACHED THE HURRICANE AND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 964
MB...FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 100 KNOTS AND A CLOSED EYEWALL. THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH
PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES AND OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. LATEST
VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS AN EYE FEATURE. BOTH SATELLITE PRESENTATION
AND DATA FROM THE SFMR ON THE PLANE SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
90 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING
SINCE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE LOW ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. DEAN COULD BECOME A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT
REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHERE THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS THE
HIGHEST. IN FACT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF
SHIPS...GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.
THE MOTION OF DEAN...280/18...CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY A STRONG
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN
BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO RUN WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE AND THE
ONLY POSSIBLE INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE IS TO ADD A
SMALL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COMPONENT IN THE LATER PERIODS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE NORTH DUE TO THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS.
THE GFDL SOLUTION INSISTS ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...BRINGING DEAN INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
AS A STRONGER HURRICANE THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT GUIDANCE FOR DAY 4 AND 5 IS MORE UNCERTAIN
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/1500Z 14.6N 62.6W 90 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 15.0N 65.5W 100 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 15.8N 69.0W 105 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 16.7N 72.3W 110 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 17.5N 75.5W 120 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 19.5N 82.0W 130 KT
96HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 88.0W 100 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 22/1200Z 24.0N 94.0W 105 KT
...DEAN MOVING AWAY FROM LESSER ANTILLES AND STRENGTHENING...
...DEAN MOVING AWAY FROM LESSER ANTILLES AND STRENGTHENING...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE...DOMINICA...
AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST.
MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA HAS
BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CABO BEATA
TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 11AM AST...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND
ITS DEPENDENCIES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...
170 KM...WEST OF MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 350 MILES...565 KM...SOUTHEAST
OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK
WILL KEEP DEAN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND DEAN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DEAN OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO
5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...14.6 N...62.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.
Meteo France
Good image of Hurricane Dean from Meteo France
SXMCYCLONE
Here is something cool - it's in French but the graphics are universal: http://sxmcyclone.com/
Hurricane Dean blasts into Caribbean
Some news reports starting to come in now - from Reuters:
On the nearby French island of Martinique, sustained winds were measured at 75 mph (120 kph) with gusts up to 105 mph (170 kph), according to France's weather service.
Dean reached the Caribbean Sea through the narrow St. Lucia Channel after a long journey across the Atlantic and threatened to become a powerful Category 4 hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale in the area of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula in four days.
The first hurricane of the Atlantic season lifted the roof off the pediatric wing at Victoria Hospital in St. Lucia's capital, Castries. Patients had been moved from that area and there were no immediate reports of deaths or injuries on the former British colony of 170,000 people, said Dawn French, the island's emergency management director.
"It's very gusty and it's very rainy. We had a dead calm night and now we're getting walloped," said French, reached by telephone as she hunkered down to wait out the storm.
"We seem to have a lot of debris on the roads and some downed trees and downed power lines," she said. "The all-clear hasn't been given so we really haven't been able to get out to look around yet."
By 8 a.m. EDT, Dean was 50 miles west-southwest of Martinique, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.
It was moving to the west at a brisk 23 mph (37 kph), forecasters said, a speed that would take it well clear of the Lesser Antilles within a few hours.
"I can say it could have been a lot worse. It's not that bad," said Clinton Charlery of Charlery's Car Rental in St. Lucia.
It sounds like the islands skirted major disaster, which is great news.
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
Here is the 8 AM EST NHC update - "...DEAN POUNDING MARTINIQUE AND DOMINICA...HEADING FOR THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA..."
We'll be sending out an email alert and update once the 11 AM reports come in.
...DEAN POUNDING MARTINIQUE AND DOMINICA...HEADING FOR THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA... MARTINIQUE...
DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...GRENADA
AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA
AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES BEEN DISCONTINUED.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED BY
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST OR 50 MILES...80 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
MARTINIQUE.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD TAKE THE
CENTER OF DEAN AWAY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. FORT-DE-FRANCE ON MARTINIQUE RECENTLY REPORTED A
WIND GUST OF 87 MPH...143 KM/HR...WHILE DOMINICA REPORTED A WIND
GUST OF 64 MPH...104 KM/HR.
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...14.4 N...61.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
Hurricane Dean open thread
Please use this post to comment on or ask questions about Dean. Almost 500 people have signed up for our alerts in the past few days, we know you are coming to the site, so don't be afraid to comment! We have opened the system up temporarily so no registration is required.
5 AM EST Updates, August 17
The latest updates from the NHC are out and the best news for the Lesser Antilles is that it appears that Dean may have actually weakened a bit as it approached the islands. That being said, favorable conditions are expected to lay ahead once Dean enters the Caribbean Sea.
The sun should be up soon and we will be hunting around the web for news stories and images to post. Please let us know if you find something, and/or feel free to post comments and or questions here on the blog.
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF DEAN IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN EITHER
SATELLITE IMAGERY OR IMAGERY FROM THE FRENCH RADAR ON MARTINIQUE.
THERE ARE ONLY OCCASIONAL GLIMPSES OF A RAGGED EYE ON RADAR...AND
THE EYEWALL HAS BEEN AT BEST ABOUT 50 PERCENT COVERAGE. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...WHICH ARE
UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 85 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THIS IS A LITTLE GENEROUS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/21. DEAN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 72 HR WITH
DEAN REMAINING ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAVE SEEMINGLY RESPONDED TO THE G-IV JET
MISSION BY SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE NORTH OF DEAN...WITH A
MOTION THAT IS SLOWER AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. GIVEN THE INITIAL MOTION...THE FIRST 12 HR OF THE
FORECAST TRACK WILL BE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...WITH A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE RIGHT FROM 12-72 HR. AFTER 72
HR...THE FORECAST IS BECOMING MORE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE EVENTUAL INTERACTION OF DEAN AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS
NOW CALL FOR DEAN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF...WHILE THE CANADIAN...NOGAPS...AND EUROPEAN MODELS CONTINUE
TO FORECAST A WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE GFS AND THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS ARE
BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES. THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HR IS ALSO
NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEAN HAS APPARENTLY BEEN SLOWED BY A COMBINATION
OF DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND LIGHT WESTERLY
SHEAR. THESE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 12-24 HR...SO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME.
AFTER 24 HR...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING...WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLING FOR
DEAN TO REACH AT LEAST CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS THE SAME AS IN THE EARLIER ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HR...THEN
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THEREAFTER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
WEAKENING FROM 96 TO 120 HR IS BASED ON DEAN CROSSING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND IF IT INSTEAD MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IT
COULD REMAIN STRONGER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0900Z 14.3N 60.9W 85 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 14.7N 63.6W 90 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 15.3N 67.0W 95 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 16.1N 70.5W 105 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 16.9N 74.0W 115 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 18.5N 81.0W 120 KT
96HR VT 21/0600Z 20.5N 87.0W 125 KT
120HR VT 22/0600Z 23.0N 92.0W 95 KT
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA... MARTINIQUE...
DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...GRENADA
AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS... MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
KITTS...BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE
HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO
ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 60.9W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 5SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 25SE 10SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 75SE 40SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 60.9W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 59.8W
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.7N 63.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 5SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 10SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 40SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.3N 67.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 75SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.1N 70.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 75SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.9N 74.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.5N 81.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 20.5N 87.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 23.0N 92.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 60.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z
...CENTER OF DEAN PASSING NEAR ST. LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE...
...CENTER OF DEAN PASSING NEAR ST. LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA... MARTINIQUE...
DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...GRENADA
AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS... MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
KITTS...BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE
HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO
ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST OR IN THE ST. LUCIA
CHANNEL BETWEEN ST. LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD TAKE THE
CENTER OF DEAN AWAY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. FORT-DE-FRANCE ON MARTINIQUE RECENTLY REPORTED A
WIND GUST OF 59 MPH...94 KM/HR...WHILE BARBADOS HAS RECENTLY
REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 55 MPH...89 KM/HR.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...14.3 N...60.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.
Hurricane Dean heads for the Caribbean
Here is a story from the AP, the image is of boarded up shops in Bridgetown, Barbados:
FORT-DE-FRANCE, Martinique - Airports closed, coastal hotels were evacuated and tourists hunkered down in shelters as powerful Hurricane Dean bore down on the eastern Caribbean.
The first hurricane of the Atlantic season was a large and dangerous storm, packing 100 mph winds late Thursday as it neared the islands of Martinique, Dominica and St. Lucia, where authorities urged people to stay indoors and out of danger.
In a region accustomed to rough weather, islanders stocked up on essentials and taped glass windows but conditions ahead of the storm were deceptively calm and even some locals said it was hard to believe that danger loomed out at sea.
Dean slightly less organized as it approaches the islands
At 3 AM EST the center of Hurricane Dean is close to making landfall, or perhaps the eye may slide right between Martinique and Dominica. Dean is a little less organized and at this point a Category 2 Hurricane, which is about as good as the news gets for the Lesser Antilles.
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF DEAN HAS DETERIORATED A BIT OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS...WITH NO EVIDENCE OF AN EYE IN CONVENTIONAL OR
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ON THE EARLIER AIR FORCE
FLIGHT RECORDED A PEAK SURFACE WIND OF 88 KT AROUND 19Z IN THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE EYEWALL...ALONG WITH VERY LITTLE WIND IN
THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE EARLIER
AIRCRAFT DATA AND RECENT STRUCTURAL TRENDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS HELD AT 85 KT. COMMUNICATIONS DIFFICULTIES DURING THE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION PREVENTED MUCH OF THE DATA FROM GETTING TO
US...BUT DROPSONDE DATA CALLED IN AFTERWARD BY THE CREW INDICATE
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...
ABOUT 976 MB.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/22. DEAN IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE CYCLONE. GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE GUIDANCE IS VERY
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE TRACK OF DEAN WILL DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH INTERACTION THERE IS BETWEEN THE HURRICANE AND A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. ALL THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY MOVES THIS LOW WESTWARD OUT OF THE WAY
AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO...AND HENCE ONLY
A MODEST RIGHTWARD BEND IN THE TRACK ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS AT LONG
RANGES HOWEVER...A DIFFERENT EVOLUTION WITH THE UPPER LOW IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.
DEAN CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A STRONG OUTFLOW PATTERN...AND THIS
FAVORABLE UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT TWO TO
THREE DAYS. DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV MISSION THIS EVENING SHOW NO
EVIDENCE OF UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS IN THE NEAR ENVIRONMENT...
AND THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING IN THE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER FLOW COULD BE A LITTLE
LESS FAVORABLE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY IF THE UPPER
LOW LAGS A BIT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHTLY FASTER
DEVELOPMENT THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT ENDS UP IN THE SAME
PLACE...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0300Z 14.1N 58.7W 85 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 14.5N 61.9W 90 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 15.1N 65.8W 95 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 15.7N 69.2W 105 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 16.4N 72.6W 115 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 18.0N 80.0W 120 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 19.5N 86.0W 120 KT
120HR VT 22/0000Z 22.0N 92.0W 90 KT
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
...CENTER OF DEAN TO PASS NEAR MARTINIQUE AND ST. LUCIA DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA...MARTINIQUE...
DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE VERY NEAR COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...GRENADA
AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...
BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
HAITI...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...FRENCH RADAR DATA FROM MARTINIQUE HELPED
LOCATE THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 59.8 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...135 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 90 MILES...140 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
BARBADOS.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR THE
ISLANDS OF ST. LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...14.3 N...59.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.
August 16, 2007
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
Dean is gaining strength and is forecast to get even stronger after it enters the Caribbean Sea.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN IN THE EYE OF DEAN
AND THE DATA SO FAR INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN
FLUCTUATION BETWEEN 974 AND 979 MB. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
85 KNOTS. THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE BANDING STRUCTURE AND THE
EXPANSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGES
SUGGEST THAT DEAN IS STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME. DEAN IS EXPECTED
TO CARRY AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH IT...ON ITS WESTWARD TRACK
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING.
ONCE DEAN REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVES OVER AN AREA OF
VERY HIGH OCEAN HEAT...IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND WITH DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE...MAINLY THE GFDL AND THE HWRF WHICH MAKE DEAN A VERY
INTENSE HURRICANE.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS. A STRONG
AND DEEP ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED NORTH OF DEAN.
THIS PATTERN WOULD PROVIDE A CONTINUED WESTWARD STEERING DURING THE
NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS WITH SOME WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COMPONENT AS THE
HURRICANE REACHES THE EDGE OF THE HIGH BY DAY FIVE. TRACK MODELS
ARE IN OUTSTANDING AGREEMENT BRINGING THE HURRICANE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.
THE FRENCH BUOY...41001...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50
KNOTS. THIS INFORMATION HELPED WITH ESTIMATES OF THE WIND RADII.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/2100Z 14.0N 56.5W 85 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 14.4N 59.7W 90 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 15.0N 63.5W 95 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 15.5N 67.0W 100 KT
48HR VT 18/1800Z 16.0N 70.5W 110 KT
72HR VT 19/1800Z 17.5N 78.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 84.5W 120 KT
120HR VT 21/1800Z 22.0N 90.5W 90 KT
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
Watches and warnings - looks like Martinique, Guadeloupe, St. Lucia and Dominica have the most to worry about in the short term.
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA
AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST.
VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
MONSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA AND ST. MAARTEN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA
AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 56.5W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 15SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 75SE 60SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 90SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 56.5W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 55.5W
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.4N 59.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 15SE 15SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 60SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.0N 63.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 90SE 75SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.0N 70.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 75SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.5N 78.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N 84.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 90.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 56.5W
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 14
...HURRICANE DEAN RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH 100
MPH WINDS...
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA
AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST.
VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
MONSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA AND ST. MAARTEN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA
AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES...
335 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 305 MILES...490 KM...
EAST OF MARTINIQUE.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES
EARLY FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST BEFORE THE HURRICANE REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER. DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41040...THE FRENCH BUOY 41101 AND A
NEW STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER INSTRUMENT ON THE AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM...FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...14.0 N...56.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
... AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REACHES HURRICANE DEAN...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA
AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE...
GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE INDICATES THAT A
HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST.
VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
MONSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA AND ST. MAARTEN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER
TODAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES...
440 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 365 MILES...590 KM...EAST OF
MARTINIQUE.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF
DEAN WILL BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A NEW STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER
INSTRUMENT ON BOARD OF THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST
MEASURED 90 MPH...150 KM/HR SURFACE WINDS WHILE MAKING ITS FIRST
ENTRANCE TO THE HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER. DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41040 INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE
CENTER.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...13.8 N...55.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
The latest watches and warnings.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA
AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE...
GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE INDICATES THAT A
HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS
UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE ISLANDS OF MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND
BARBUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 11 AM AST...THE BARBADOS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.
AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN
HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER
TODAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 54.3W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 95 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 90SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 54.3W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 53.3W
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.1N 57.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.6N 61.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.1N 64.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.6N 68.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N 82.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N 89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 54.3W
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 13
...DEAN INTENSIFYING AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA
AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE...
GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE INDICATES THAT A
HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS
UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE ISLANDS OF MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND
BARBUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 11 AM AST...THE BARBADOS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.
AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN
HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER
TODAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.3 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES...
565 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 455 MILES...730 KM...EAST OF
MARTINIQUE.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF
DEAN WILL BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER
ELEVATED TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE DEAN THIS AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER. DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41010 INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE
CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...13.7 N...54.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
Dean is really getting organized now and the latest models are coming to a consensus that this will eventually be a Category 4 Hurricane (Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale).
"Category 4: Winds 131-155 mph. Storm surge 13 to 18 feet above normal. Wall failures and roof collapses on small homes, and extensive damage to doors and windows. Complete destruction of some homes, especially mobile homes. Major coastal flooding damage. Hurricane Katrina was a Category 4 storm as was Hurricane Ivan."
DEAN IS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY. THE HURRICANE HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL
CLOUD-FILLED EYE THIS MORNING ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE
CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 77 KT...WHILE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE
HIGHER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL BE IN THE EYE OF DEAN LATER TODAY TO
OBTAIN A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY. WIND AND MAXIMUM SEAS
DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41010 WERE CRITICAL FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE SHOULD
CONTROL DEAN'S MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS RIDGE SHOULD
FORCE THE HURRICANE ON A SPEEDY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
THROUGH ABOUT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
DEAN WILL REACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
ATTEMPT TO MOVE MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AS WELL...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL. IT IS
STALLING A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS...IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SOLUTION ALLOWS THE HURRICANE TO MOVE
MORE TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AT 120 HR IN
DEFERENCE TO THE GFDL FORECAST.
ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A LARGE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE AROUND
DEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN COMBINATION WITH THE DEEP WARM
WATER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...DEAN IS LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST USES
A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH DEVELOP THIS
SYSTEM INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BY THE TIME
IT REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV WILL CONDUCT A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION
FOR THE 17/00Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/1500Z 13.7N 54.3W 80 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 14.1N 57.4W 90 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 14.6N 61.4W 95 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 15.1N 64.9W 100 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 15.6N 68.4W 105 KT
72HR VT 19/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 20/1200Z 18.5N 82.5W 120 KT
120HR VT 21/1200Z 21.0N 89.0W 80 KT...INLAND
GOES East Caribbean Visible Satellite
GOES East Caribbean Visible Satellite (click the image for a larger view)
Martinique
At this moment the latest storm track has Dean heading directly over Martinique. I am trying to find some local news sources but not having much luck. I can't find a working webcam either. The government pages I am finding don't seem to have any news yet about this potentially devastating hurricane. Here are some reference links:
A local TV and Radio station - Reseau France Outre-mer (of course, this is in French)
CaribbeanNetNews has a Martinique page (this is just news from wire services, mostly AFP, aggregated by them)
Martinique destination page from FranceGuide.com
Martinique from the Wikipedia
Caribbean Islands Webcams
We have a page of Caribbean webcams here - you may be able to get a look at local conditions on some of these cams. If anyone knows of other cams we don't have listed please send me an email.
Dean watches and warnings, 5 AM AST
DOMINICA
ST. LUCIA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR:
MARTINIQUE...
GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
SABA
ST. EUSTATIUS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE OR TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS
LATER THIS MORNING.
AT 5 AM AST THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 5 AM AST THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. VINCENT. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
Dean is now a hurricane and the models have it headed toward the Yucatan peninsula in about 5 days. The models also have it becoming a major hurricane with winds of up to 127 knots possible.
DEAN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL
GLIMPSES OF AN EYE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CLOUD TOPS
COLDER THAN -70C NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO DEAN IS UPGRADED TO THE FIRST
HURRICANE OF THE 2007 HURRICANE SEASON.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21. DEAN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS BUILDING RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ASIDE A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY EAST OF
FLORIDA...AND SHOULD THIS HAPPEN THAT SYSTEM WOULD HAVE LITTLE
INTERACTION WITH DEAN. THE PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD KEEP DEAN
MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE MODELS ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A TRACK
THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN FIVE
DAYS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE....AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE VARIOUS
CONSENSUS MODELS.
THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE TO KEEP DEAN FROM STRENGTHENING THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH
115 KT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE THE EXPERIMENTAL LGE MODEL
IS CALLING FOR 127 KT. THE GFDL CALLS FOR DEAN TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...ALTHOUGH ODDLY ENOUGH IT
CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE FIRST 60 HR OF THE
FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED UPWARD FOR THE
FIRST 96 HR IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE
INVESTIGATING DEAN THIS AFTERNOON..AND THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV
WILL CONDUCT A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION FOR THE 17/00Z
ANALYSIS CYCLE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/0900Z 13.4N 52.3W 65 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 13.9N 55.4W 70 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 14.4N 59.4W 80 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 14.9N 63.0W 90 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 15.4N 66.5W 100 KT
72HR VT 19/0600Z 16.5N 73.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 20/0600Z 18.0N 80.5W 110 KT
120HR VT 21/0600Z 20.0N 87.5W 115 KT
...DEAN BECOMES A HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...
Dean is now a hurricane - watches and warnings have been posted for, Dominica, St. Lucia, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Saba, and St. Eustatius and others. An intermediate advisory will be posted at 8 AM EST.
...CORRECTED WARNINGS...
...DEAN BECOMES A HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...
AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ISLANDS OF DOMINICA AND ST. LUCIA BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE...
GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE OR TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS
LATER THIS MORNING.
AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. VINCENT. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLAND...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.3 WEST OR ABOUT 485 MILES...
780 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 590 MILES...950 KM...EAST OF
MARTINIQUE.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION
SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF DEAN NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE DEAN THIS AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...13.4 N...52.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.
August 15, 2007
TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
DEAN CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS
HAVE WARMED RECENTLY...THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES
INDICATE A TIGHTLY CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. AMSU AND
TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE ALSO SUGGESTED THE FORMATION OF A
PARTIAL EYEWALL. MOST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE INCREASING...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS RAISED TO
55 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SHIFTED MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE
PAST SIX HOURS...AROUND 285/19. THIS MOVEMENT TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AS DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING TO
THE NORTH OF DEAN STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT...FORCING THE STORM ON MORE
OF A WESTWARD COURSE TOMORROW. THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT
ANY INTERACTION WITH A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
BAHAMAS WILL BE LIMITED AS THAT FEATURE IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE
WESTWARD AS AN INVERTED TROUGH WELL AHEAD OF DEAN. NUMERICAL TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...SHOWING THE
STORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ABOUT 5
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH DURING
THE FIRST 36 HOURS...BUT IS MUCH FASTER AND TO THE WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE NUMERICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.
BASED ON WHAT WE THINK WE KNOW ABOUT INTENSITY CHANGE...THERE DO NOT
SEEM TO BE TOO MANY INHIBITING FACTORS TO A FUTURE INTENSIFICATION
OF DEAN. GLOBAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE AS THE SYSTEM TRAVELS
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN COMBINATION WITH VERY DEEP WARM
WATERS...THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POWERFUL
HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF
THE SHIPS...GFDL...HWRF...AND LGEM MODELS.
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
...DEAN INTENSIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST OR ABOUT 910
MILES...1465 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR...
AND A MOTION BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DEAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...13.1 N...47.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.
Tropical Storm Dean 11 AM Update, August 15
The 11 AM EST updates from the NHC basically are telling this story: Dean is small, but getting better organized and strengthening. The take away line from the forecast discussion is this:
They also continue to move the track further south, while noting that the odds of that still being correct 72 hours from now are not that great. It will enter the Caribbean Sea as a hurricane however - that seems pretty certain at this point (as certain as you could be about the weather!).
TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEAN HAS A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST CLOUD PATTERN. HINTS OF A BANDING EYE HAVE BEEN SEEN ON
VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
HAVE BEEN INCREASING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT IS A
BLEND OF TAFB/SAB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KT AND AMSU/AODT
ESTIMATES OF NEAR 55 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...275/17. A STRONG
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE LIES TO THE NORTH OF DEAN AND IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN WELL-ESTABLISHED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NUMERICAL TRACK
FORECAST MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM WILL
MAINTAIN THE SAME GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BEYOND THREE DAYS...THE FATE OF THE STORM WILL BE PARTIALLY
CONTROLLED BY A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS.
THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF INTO A LOW AND HEAD WESTWARD
UNDER A BUILDING SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES HIGH. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE LOW REMAINING FARTHER AWAY FROM DEAN WITH STRONGER
RIDGING CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THAN IN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK IN THE LONG-RANGE..AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED IN
THAT DIRECTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST.
STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE THE BEST BET AS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT BY ALL MODELS AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE STORM START TO RISE. THE ONLY
NEGATING FACTOR TO INTENSIFICATION MIGHT BE THE ATMOSPHERIC
STABILITY AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...INTENSITY
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DEAN WILL BE A HURRICANE BEFORE IT
ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE GFDL/HWRF/SHIPS MODELS ALL
FORECAST DEAN TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE BY DAY 5...AND SO DOES THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/1500Z 12.4N 46.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 12.7N 48.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 13.1N 52.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 13.7N 55.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 14.2N 59.2W 75 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 15.5N 66.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 16.5N 72.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 18.0N 78.0W 105 KT
...DEAN STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Dean is gaining strength:
...DEAN STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1045
MILES...1685 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
DEAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW.
DEAN IS A RELATIVELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...12.4 N...46.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
Tropical Storm Dean 5 AM EST Update, August 15th
Good morning to the nearly 300 of you that have signed up for our alerts in the last two days. The 5 AM EST updates are out from the NHC and seemed to be saying that the conditions are in place for this storm to intensify. The various weather models that are monitored are not in agreement on the path (they never are - the NHC usually seems to take them all into account and come up with an average unless they have a strong opinion on something in particular) but in general it does seem to point to an even more westerly track, although a turn to the north can not be ruled out at some point. The forecast is for Dean to be a hurricane by 2 AM Friday. The current track makes it look like Martinique is in direct line of the storm at the moment, with perhaps Jamaica or Cuba in peril in another 5 or 6 days. A lot can happen in between though, but it is time to start planning if you are a Caribbean resident.
TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DEAN HAS MORE OF A BANDED
APPEARANCE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE BANDING IS NOT YET
WELL-DEFINED. WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED...IT MAY BE
THAT A COMBINATION OF DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE
STORM AND INFLOW FROM OVER THE COOLER WATERS TO THE NORTH ARE
SLOWING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE EARLIER
QUIKSCAT DATA AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY UNCERTAIN 275/16...UNCERTAIN DUE TO
AMSU MICROWAVE DATA HINTING THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE ADVISORY POSITION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEAN IS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE... WITH A LARGE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
64W-77W. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH SHOULD
GRADUALLY FILL DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH RIDGING PERSISTING
NORTH OF DEAN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE...AS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FROM
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE BAHAMAS TO A MORE WESTWARD
MOTION THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. THE UKMET CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION...WHILE THE GFS CALLS FOR A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72
HR...THEN SHIFTED A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER
BASED ON THE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE. THE NEW
TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE
GFS.
DEAN SHOULD ENCOUNTER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK...AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR
STEADY STRENGTHENING...AND SO DOES THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AND WARM WATER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT DEAN COULD BE
NOTABLY STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0900Z 12.2N 44.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 12.4N 46.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 12.8N 50.1W 55 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 13.2N 53.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 13.8N 57.1W 70 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 15.0N 63.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 16.0N 68.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 20/0600Z 17.5N 74.0W 100 KT
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 8
...DEAN MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1170
MILES...1880 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...12.2 N...44.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
Tropical Storm Dean 11 PM Update
It seems that Dean is getting a little more organized. It has also slowed, and the NHC has adjusted the track further south again. We are awaiting the 5 AM EST updates and will send out an alert as soon as we get them. Links to the 11 PM updates are below.
Tropical Storm Dean's Future Uncertain
From the AP:
Investors are watching progress of the storm for potential impact it may have on oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico.
Dean is moving westward at 20 knots in the subtropical area, the weather monitoring center said. Within 2 to 3 days, Dean will move farther west with a decrease in forward speed. At that point, the storm's future becomes "highly uncertain" because different storm-prediction software models show Dean heading in slightly different directions.
Tropical Depression 5
We also have TD 5 in the Gulf of Mexico now. We don't monitor non-Caribbean storms too closely but we will be providing links and info for this storm should it make it to Tropical Storm status.
...LITTLE CHANGE IN DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM
FREEPORT SOUTHWARD...AND FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO
SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.3 WEST OR ABOUT
390 MILES...630 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT
410 MILES...665 KM...EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16
KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THE
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE LOWER OR MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR
TO MAKING LANDFALL.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...24.3 N...91.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 AM CDT.
TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
AFTER THE CONVECTION WANED THIS AFTERNOON...A NEW BURST HAS
REDEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DESPITE THE
SOMEWHAT RAGGED SATELLITE APPEARANCE AROUND 2100 UTC...A QUIKSCAT
PASS AT THAT TIME DETECTED A RATHER WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH
BELIEVABLE 45-50 KT WINDS. WITH A NOD TO THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT A POSSIBLY
CONSERVATIVE 45 KT. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE QUIKSCAT DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/16...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED AS DEAN IS
EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
GENERALLY AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO BUT WITH SOMEWHAT VARYING FORWARD
SPEEDS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS FASTER THAN THE NOGAPS
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WHICH CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE INITIALIZING THE
FORWARD MOTION OF DEAN. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE
CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...HWRF AND GFS MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT
IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THESE MODELS AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
IT APPEARS THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING DEAN IS
BEGINNING TO DECREASE. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING AND THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE BRINGS DEAN TO A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HOURS...AND NEAR THE
MAJOR HURRICANE THRESHOLD BY DAY 5.
THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0300Z 12.0N 42.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 12.2N 44.8W 50 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 12.4N 48.2W 55 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 12.8N 51.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 13.4N 55.2W 70 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 14.5N 61.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 16.0N 66.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 17.5N 71.5W 100 KT
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
...DEAN A LITTLE STRONGER...
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1295
MILES...2085 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...12.0 N...42.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
August 14, 2007
Tropical Storm Dean 5 PM Update
All the NHC updates are out - visit the home page for the links. Dean is tracking even more southerly now and the Virgin Islands look to be in much better shape on this run of the weather models than this morning - but that means that the DR is now in line. Of course it is still early, so let's hope for the best.
TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
DEAN'S STRUCTURE HAS NOT IMPROVED DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
HAS WANED AND REMAINS ESPECIALLY LIMITED IN THE NORTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE...THOUGH THIS MAY BE A DIURNAL FLUCTUATION. BOTH TAFB
AND SAB GAVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 OR 35 KT...WHILE AN AMSU PASS
AT 1623 UTC SUGGESTED A SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER INTENSITY. GIVEN THE
LACK OF CONVECTIVE VIGOR...THE INTENSITY OF DEAN IS KEPT AT 35 KT.
INITIAL MOTION OF DEAN IS 265 DEGREES AT 18 KT...A BIT SLOWER THAN
THE LAST ADVISORY. DEAN IS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE WHICH
SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST AND
FASTER COMPARED TO THE 06 UTC RUNS...PERHAPS DUE TO A WEAKER AND
LESS DIGGING TROUGH OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST BY DAY 5. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT REMAINS TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS OF
THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF. COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS...TRACK
SOLUTIONS FOR THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER BECAUSE THEY DO NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON DEAN'S FAST INITIAL FORWARD SPEED.
DEAN IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...IS
OVER 27.5C SSTS...AND IS WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THE SHEAR
SHOULD DROP WHILE THE SSTS WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO THE
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE A CONSENSUS OF THE HWRF...
GFDL...SHIPS...AND LGEM THROUGH 72 HR. THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST RELIES PRIMARILY UPON THE GFDL AND LGEM MODELS. BY DAY
5...DEAN IS FORECAST TO BE A STRENGTHENING HURRICANE AND COULD
REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY THEN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/2100Z 11.6N 41.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 11.7N 43.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 12.0N 46.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 12.3N 50.2W 50 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 12.6N 53.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 14.0N 59.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 15.5N 64.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 17.5N 69.5W 95 KT
TROPICAL STORM DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 41.0W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 41.0W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 40.2W
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 11.7N 43.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 12.0N 46.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 12.3N 50.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 12.6N 53.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 40SE 0SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.0N 59.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 15.5N 64.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 17.5N 69.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 41.0W
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
...DEAN MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1140
MILES...1830 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
ABOUT 1390 MILES...2235 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
DEAN IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...11.6 N...41.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
Dean Watch
We added some new things to the site just now to try to help you follow this storm. Right on the home page you'll find 3 graphic links: the GOES Storm Floater (right now it is for Dean, but this satellite will change in the future to follow other storms), the 5 Day Cone from the NHC which shows the historical and forecast track of the storm, and the Caribbean Satellite shot from Yahoo!
Also up above you always have the text links for the latest public advisory and tropical discussion. Updates from the NHC are due out at 5 PM EST and we will have them posted and send out an alert as soon as we get them.
GOES Floater 1
This is the GOES Atlantic Floater 1 Infrared satellite - this image updates every 30 minutes. Refresh your browser for the latest image.
Plymouth State Weather Center Dean Tracking Map
Here is a good simple tracking map for Dean from the Plymouth State Weather Center:
Click the map for the latest info.
TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
Full discussion below the fold. This is the 11 AM EST discussion. Updates to the discussion and the latest advisory will be out at 5 PM EST.
SATELLITE IMAGES...MICROWAVE DATA AND QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS INDICATE
THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS AND ALSO THAT
THE CENTER IS LOCATED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED. DEAN HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OVER
THE CENTER BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS STILL LOCATED TO THE WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS CONFINED TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST SINCE THE CYCLONE IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN EASTERLY
SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND MOST OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS DEAN. IN FACT...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT DEAN COULD BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES AS A HURRICANE
WITH 100 TO 110 KNOTS IN FIVE DAYS.
DEAN APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD OR 265 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS EXPANDING
WESTWARD. IN THE SHORT TERM...2 TO 3 DAYS...DEAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE
SOME RELIABLE MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND KEEP
THE CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND OTHERS SHOW A
WEAKER RIDGE RESULTING IN A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AND IS A LITTLE BIT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...DUE TO THE REPOSITIONING OF THE
CENTER...AND NOT BECAUSE WE HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST REASONING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/1500Z 11.7N 39.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 11.8N 42.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 11.8N 45.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 16/0000Z 11.8N 48.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 12.0N 51.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 13.5N 56.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 18/1200Z 15.5N 61.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 19/1200Z 17.5N 65.0W 95 KT
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1030
MILES...1660 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
ABOUT 1490 MILES...2400 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...11.7 N...39.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
5-Day Cone for Tropical Storm Dean
Tropical Storm Dean
TD 4 is now Tropical Storm Dean - the latest forecast discussion from the NHC:
SATELLITE IMAGES...MICROWAVE DATA AND QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS INDICATE
THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS AND ALSO THAT
THE CENTER IS LOCATED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED. DEAN HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OVER
THE CENTER BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS STILL LOCATED TO THE WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS CONFINED TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST SINCE THE CYCLONE IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN EASTERLY
SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND MOST OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS DEAN. IN FACT...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT DEAN COULD BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES AS A HURRICANE
WITH 100 TO 110 KNOTS IN FIVE DAYS.
DEAN APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD OR 265 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS EXPANDING
WESTWARD. IN THE SHORT TERM...2 TO 3 DAYS...DEAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE
SOME RELIABLE MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND KEEP
THE CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND OTHERS SHOW A
WEAKER RIDGE RESULTING IN A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AND IS A LITTLE BIT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...DUE TO THE REPOSITIONING OF THE
CENTER...AND NOT BECAUSE WE HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST REASONING.
They have changed the track a bit to further south - heading (at this point) straight at Puerto Rico.
Little change in TD 4
Good Tuesday morning to you all - we are signing up folks for our email alerts at a record pace and I hope you are finding them useful. TD 4 was little changed according to the NHC's latest update issued at 5 AM EST. It is moving towards the west at about 21 MPH. The NHC still thinks it could become a tropical storm sometime this afternoon, and will most likely be Dean. The graphics as of this morning have it headed pretty much straight for the Antigua/St. Martin/Anguilla area by about 2 AM Sunday. Of course this could change dramatically in the next couple of days, but it seems that the Leeward islands need to start paying close attention. The next advisory is out at 11 AM EST
...LITTLE CHANGE IN DEPRESSION OVER FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.8 WEST OR ABOUT 855
MILES...1375 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1660 MILES...2670 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...12.0 N...36.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CERTAINLY NOT IMPROVED THIS
EVENING. THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME
ELONGATED EAST TO WEST AS THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE PLAGUED BY
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS. A QUIKSCAT PASS DURING THE
AFTERNOON CAUGHT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND IT
SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR 30 KT. THE LATEST
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE ALSO SUPPORT 30 KT AND THE
CYCLONE WILL REMAIN A DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR
WILL DECREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. THE EXPLICIT INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN
REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/0300Z 12.0N 35.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 12.0N 37.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 12.0N 40.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 12.2N 43.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 12.6N 46.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 13.8N 52.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 16.0N 57.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 18.5N 62.5W 90 KT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 3
As of 11 PM EST this storm is still a tropical depression - there was some discussion that it would be a tropical storm by now but it is not organizing that quickly at the moment:
...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.0 WEST OR ABOUT 740
MILES...1190 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1780 MILES...2865 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...12.0 N...35.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
Next update is 5 AM EST.
August 13, 2007
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 2
...DEPRESSION CONTINUES RACING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN
ATLANTIC...
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.1 WEST OR ABOUT 620
MILES...995 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1900 MILES...3060 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...11.9 N...33.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
Good radar image of the Atlantic
AccuWeather has a good animated radar of the whole Atlantic, so you can see this thing (TD 4) as it is coming across. Click the image below for the animated one from AccuWeather.
Tropical Depression 4
Well the media is already making a big deal out of this one - even though it is days away from being a definitive threat:
...FOURTH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC...
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.6 WEST OR ABOUT 520
MILES...840 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND ABOUT 2000 MILES...3220 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...12.0 N...31.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
We will be keeping a close eye on it and will keep you up to date as best we can.
Tropical storm gathers strength in Atlantic
McClatchy Newspapers is reporting:
Likely to become a tropical depression Monday, the system is an immense distance from land — 2,200 miles from the outermost Caribbean islands — and poses no immediate danger to anyone.
Still, the disturbance is the first noteworthy system to be born this year in what forecasters call the “deep tropics,” where conditions are growing ripe for development and storms have plenty of time to strengthen before they reach land.
Similar systems are lining up behind it, ready to roll off Africa and into the Atlantic, suggesting that a worrisome few weeks are ahead for residents of the hurricane zone.
“It’s a reminder that this is the time of year for things to form out there, and if you’re not ready for hurricane season, now is the time to get ready,” said Eric Blake, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County.
Last week, government scientists predicted that the season — which started June 1 and ends Nov. 30 — soon would heat up and become unusually active.
Long-range computerized models suggest that, as the week progresses, the first of these systems will strengthen and march across the Atlantic toward the Caribbean islands, though such forecasts are subject to wide margins of error.
This really isn't a storm yet - that headline is a bit alarmist. The NHC is calling it a "special feature" at present, it is going to take several days to see what this thing turns into.
A 1006 MB LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 26W/27W S
OF 18N...IS LOCATED SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 12N MOVING
W 15 KT. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE E OF THE CONVECTION.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
29W-33W.
August 10, 2007
High pressure keeping the tropics quiet - for now
Still not much going on as the season progresses. Not to say that can't change come September (see chart below):
August 3, 2007
Tropical Depression in Caribbean less likely
Looks like this area of weather is just not going to develop into anything major:
In an outlook issued at 10:30 p.m. EDT (0230 GMT Friday), the NHC said, "Satellite images indicate that the shower activity associated with the tropical wave has decreased during the past few hours. This suggests that the system is not developing at this time and the potential for tropical depression formation has diminished."
"The tropical wave is expected to move rapidly westward bringing cloudiness and showers to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Central America during the next couple of days," it said."
The recent imagery does show it as mostly blown apart.
August 2, 2007
Possible system forming
The NHC is still acting like this isn't going to turn into much - but the latest update does make it sound like it has become a bit more organized:
It certainly looks like something in the latest images - but the upper level winds seem to be creating a shearing effect that could hamper development.
If it does develop, it may impact the western half of the Caribbean islands, especially Jamaica and Cuba. Keep an eye on this one if you have travel plans to the region - and don't forget about travel insurance!
August 1, 2007
BTW - Chantal
This is not a storm anywhere near the Caribbean, but we wanted to have a record of it:
...CHANTAL RAPIDLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL...
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.5 WEST OR ABOUT 260
MILES...420 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA AND ABOUT 340
MILES...545 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.
CHANTAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 32 MPH...52 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...43.6 N...58.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 32 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON CHANTAL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
Tropical depression may form in Atlantic
The NHC is putting out news on a possible tropical depression:
"Environmental conditions do not appear especially favorable for development," the NHC said, but it added that "there is still potential for this system to become a tropical depression during the next day or two" as it moves westward at close to 15 to 20 miles per hour.
Separately, the NHC said another large area of cloudiness and showers developed over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico in association with an old frontal zone. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next day or two as it remains nearly stationary.
The NHC will name the next tropical storm Dean.
More here from Reuters.
