HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 | Main | Category 5 Hurricane Dean Slams Mexico
August 21, 2007
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
AFTER MAKING LANDFALL IN A SPARSELY-POPULATED AREA...DEAN CONTINUES
TO TRAVERSE THE SPARSELY-POPULATED SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE EYE HAS FILLED AND CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING. THE
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 90 KT BASED ON THE DECAY COMPONENT OF THE
SHIPS MODEL. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN
ANOTHER 3 TO 5 HOURS AS A HURRICANE...AND WILL HAVE ABOUT 18 HOURS
OVER WATER TO REGAIN STRENGTH. SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT DEAN COULD APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AGAIN...ALTHOUGH
THE AMOUNT OF RESTRENGTHENING WILL BE HARD TO GAUGE UNTIL WE SEE
HOW MUCH OF THE INNER CORE OF THE HURRICANE SURVIVES ITS PASSAGE
OVER LAND.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/17. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECASTING THINKING. DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODEL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/1500Z 19.0N 89.6W 90 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 19.4N 92.2W 85 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 20.0N 95.5W 95 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 20.5N 98.7W 50 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 23/1200Z 21.0N 101.5W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
