THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE BRISKLY WESTWARD...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/17. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE GFDL AND HWRF REMAIN ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...SHOWING AN EARLIER TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND UKMET SOLUTIONS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR
WILL DECREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. THE EXPLICIT INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN
REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 12.0N 35.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 12.0N 37.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 12.0N 40.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 12.2N 43.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 12.6N 46.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 13.8N 52.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 16.0N 57.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 18.5N 62.5W 90 KT