October 2007 | Main | December 2007
November 27, 2007
Hurricane forecasters see no tropical activity
Well despite the forecasts and the media's help in scaring the hell out of everyone, we just passed another rather mild season (not to discount at all the death and destruction that did occur this year):
No tropical weather is expected today and at least through Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center in Miami reported late Monday.
The weather center in South Florida has been watching the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico since early May, when the first sub-tropical storm was identified and named. That was Andrea.
If no tropical storm develops, the 2007 season will be the second straight without significant hurricane threats to Florida - following two seasons of almost constant threats."
The season officially ends on November 30th, and while it is still possible for storms to crop up, the tropics have been so quiet that it does seem rather unlikely that another major event will occur this year.
Sad news in the world of Hurricanes
Herbert Saffir, co-creator of the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, has died:
Saffir, who lived and worked in Coral Gables, Fla., later talked to the Sun Herald about his post-Katrina visit and his desire to return.
"I'm anxious to go up and see what has been done and see if they're following some of the lessons that they should have learned after Camille. I hate to sound like that, but I think Camille's lessons were wasted, on the Gulf Coast anyway," Saffir said.
"They should have adopted tougher building codes after that. Another point is you have to have rigid enforcement of the codes. You can adopt and write a beautiful building code with all kinds of storm requirements in it. But if you don't have inspection and enforcement of the code, it's wasted."
Sadly, Saffir never got the chance to come back. Owen was trying to schedule a visit for January, but the 90-year-old who originated the Saffir-Simpson scale died Wednesday."
November 2, 2007
Tropical Storm Noel satellite image
Click on the image for the full size version:
Hurricane Noel Expands, Heads North Over Atlantic
From Bloomberg:
Noel is now clear of the Caribbean which means we most likely won't be sending out any more alerts. We will be tracking and posting about conditions and relief news as it pertains to the Caribbean.
Tropical Storm Noel - Situation Report #2
Message: Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Noel affect Bahamas and Jamaica
THE EVENT:
Tropical Storm Noel (now upgraded to Hurricane Noel) began affecting the CDERA Participating States of Jamaica, Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas from Monday October 29, 2007. The system has also caused severe damage, flooding and loss of life in Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
Hurricane Noel moved across the Bahamas on Thursday November 1, 2007 as a strong Tropical Storm and was upgraded to a Category 1 Hurricane as it entered the Atlantic Ocean.
The heavy rains associated with this system caused severe flooding to the Bahamas and Jamaica.
THE BAHAMAS
Response Actions
The National Emergency Management Agency has reported that initial damage assessment teams are being deployed to the affected areas to assess and ascertain needs.
Two reconnaissance flights were dispatched this morning to enable an aerial view of damages that may have occurred on Exuma, Long Island, Eleuthera, Acklins, Cat Island, San Salvador and Rum Cay.
A naval vessel from the Royal Bahamas Defence Force is expected to sail to islands in Central Bahamas today.
NEMA has also secured the Mail Boat Service to assist in bringing relief to affected areas.
Casualities
One confirmed death reportedly by drowning on the Island of Exuma.
Airport
The International Airport has been reopened for regular commercial flights
All other air strips are operational except for Deadman’s Cay which is closed.
Stella Maris is open but the immediate surrounding areas are flooded.
Telephone & Electricity
Power supply was shut down for safety reasons. Telephone and electrical services have been restored to many areas of Long Island.
Restoration has been on going to areas that were affected namely Abaco and Cat Island, Staniard Creek, Andros and Great Harbour Cay.
Health
Environmental Safety Officers are on standby to monitor any food contamination issues as a result of flooding.
Shelters
Shelters are now closed
Needs
Needs are being addressed locally at this time.
NEMA is organizing shipments of food and bottled water, hygiene kits and equipment for distribution to the affected areas.
JAMAICA
The Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM) has reported flooding, landslides and blocked roads as a result of the heavy rains which affected the island yesterday Thursday November 1, 2007. Reports from St. Andrew indicated the following:
A landslide blocked the Gordon Town main road and the alternative route was also impassable.
Residents of the Kintyre community were marooned as the bridge leading out of the community had collapsed. The alternative route via Gordon Town Road was also blocked by a landslide.
The community of Irish Town was marooned as a result of landslides along the main roadway within the surrounding communities of Junapahill and Windsor.
Landslide and flooding occurred in the community of Harbour View, specifically along Harbour Drive.
Landslides occurred along the Bloxburgh road in the vicinity of Bito and Alderstad
Shelters
The Tavern Community Centre in St. Andrew is reportedly open and is currently sheltering three persons: two adults and one child from the communities of Tavern and Mud Town.
REGIONAL RESPONSE:
The Regional Response Mechanism remains on Standby.
The CDERA Coordinating Unit continues to monitor the impact of Hurricane Noel and stands ready to provide assistance if warranted.
Contact Details: The CDERA CU 24hr contact number is 246 425 0386
HURRICANE NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 70 KT...BASED ON AN SFMR REPORT OF 69
KT ABOUT 45 NMI NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF
NOEL IS DETERIORATING RAPIDLY...HOWEVER...WITH DEEP CONVECTION
EVAPORATING OVER THE CENTER. THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AT 12Z STILL
SHOWED A DISTINCT WARM CORE AT 700 MB...AND CO-LOCATED SURFACE AND
700 MB CENTERS...SO NOEL REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW. IF
THE CORE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECAY AT ITS PRESENT RATE...NOEL
WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING. WHILE NOEL MIGHT WEAKEN A LITTLE BIT AS THE CORE DECAYS
OVER 26C WATERS...THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME
STRENGTHENING AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/15...WHICH IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS MOTION. NOEL REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A STRONG SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS TROUGH DIGS IN
BEHIND NOEL...A RETURN TO THE PREVIOUS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD HEADING
IS EXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41047 WERE USED TO EXPAND THE 50
KT WIND RADII IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/1500Z 29.2N 73.8W 70 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 32.5N 71.5W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 03/1200Z 37.1N 69.7W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 04/0000Z 41.8N 66.9W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 04/1200Z 47.5N 62.5W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 05/1200Z 58.0N 54.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 06/1200Z 67.0N 47.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
HURRICANE NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 24
...NOEL BEGINNING TO LOSE ORGANIZATION AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...NOEL BEGINNING TO LOSE ORGANIZATION AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.
INTERESTS ALONG THE U. S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD
SHOULD CONSULT STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NWS
FORECAST OFFICE. INTERESTS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER OF
ENVIRONMENT CANADA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST OR ABOUT 575 MILES...
925 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 425 MILES...685 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A TURN
BACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NOEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER
TODAY...BUT MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345
MILES...555 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE DATA WAS
981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE INCH
ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND 2 TO 4 INCHES....WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS TO 6 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...29.2 N...73.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
November 1, 2007
Tropical Storm Noel drenches Bahamas as Caribbean death toll rises
From the AP:
Noel equaled the deadliest storm of the Atlantic region this year and stands to surpass it. Hurricane Felix, a devastating Category 5 storm, killed 101 people when it lashed the Caribbean and slammed into the Nicaraguan and Honduran coasts in early September.
In the Bahamas, flooding from rainfall overnight forced some people to evacuate their homes on Long Island, in the southeastern part of the Atlantic archipelago, according to Carl Smith, director of the National Emergency Management Agency. There were no reports of injury or death in the Bahamas.
Tropical Storm Noel barrels toward Bahamas
From AFP:
The worst affected by Noel's wrath was the Dominican Republic, where 56 people were confirmed dead and dozens more were reported missing.
In Haiti, which shares the island of Hispaniola with the Dominican Republic, the death toll reached 34, officials said on Thursday. A further 14 people were listed as missing, and almost 2,000 homes were damaged.
In Cuba, 24,000 people evacuated their homes as the storm damaged homes and farmland.
The Bahamas, meanwhile, braced for a direct hit by Noel, which forecasters said could gain strength as it churns toward the islands. The northwestern part of the Atlantic archipelago was placed under a hurricane watch.
Residents boarded up their homes and stocked up on basic goods, as schools shut down and Bahamasair grounded its flights.
Forecasters warned Noel could dump as much as 38 centimeters (15 inches) of rain on the islands.
Even after the storm left the Caribbean basin for the Atlantic Ocean, the three countries slammed by Noel earlier in the week remained on high alert.
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
DATA PHONED IN FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING NOEL INCLUDE PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT AND
SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 51 KT. THESE DATA SUPPORT THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT. THE CENTER FIXES HAVE BEEN BOUNCING
ABOUT IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS...BUT OVERALL INDICATE THAT
THE TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST HAS BEGUN. THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 020/8.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ADVANCING TOWARD NOEL FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NOEL
NORTHNORTHEASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
HEADING BUT LESS SO ON THE SPEED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS
A GFS/GFDL/HWRF BLEND.
WITH THE RECENT JUMP OF THE CENTER CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION...THERE
IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS...BEFORE THE WIND SHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVE. HOWEVER...
BAROCLINIC ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.
AS NOEL IS EXPECTED TO EDGE AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON...IT SHOULD SOON BE POSSIBLE TO LOWER THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/1500Z 24.5N 77.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 25.8N 76.9W 60 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 28.4N 74.9W 55 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 32.0N 72.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 03/1200Z 36.0N 69.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 04/1200Z 46.0N 61.0W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 05/1200Z 56.5N 50.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 06/1200Z 67.0N 25.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
...NOEL PASSING OVER NASSAU AS IT ACCELERATES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...NOEL PASSING OVER NASSAU AS IT ACCELERATES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR NEAR
NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.
NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/HR...AND A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.
NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES IN THE BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 18 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...25.0 N...77.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.
