August 25, 2007
Death toll from Hurricane Dean rises
From the AFP:
The man, a 65-year-old shepherd, drowned when he was swept into a drainage canal overflowing with water from Dean, officials in the state of Hidalgo said.
Hurricane Dean had earlier killed at least 17 people during its rampage across the Caribbean.
Several rivers burst their banks on Thursday in Hidalgo, cutting off roads and damaging farmland. More than 10,000 people in the state were evacuated to higher ground as river levels continued to rise.
Dean first slammed ashore on Mexico's Caribbean coast on Tuesday as a monster hurricane of the topmost category five. It gradually lost steam as it crossed the Yucatan Peninsula before swirling over the Gulf of Mexico and heading inland once more.
At its peak on Tuesday, Dean packed maximum sustained winds of 270 kilometres per hour, making it the first category 5 Atlantic hurricane to hit land since Andrew ravaged the US state of Florida in 1992.
Hurricane Dean Update from Jamaica
Following is a detailed update from Jamaica with property reports, the condition of golf courses, power and road conditions, etc.
| Hurricane Dean Update |
| JAMAICA TOURIST BOARD - UPDATE #24 |
Published on 8/24/2007 12:00:00 AM |
|
 |
Hurricane Dean's wake: updates from Mexico & the Caribbean
Here is a good round up from the LA Times:
August 23, 2007
Hurricane Dean weakens over central Mexico
From the LA Times:
The threat of serious flooding and mudslides remained as the former Category 5 hurricane diminished to a tropical depression, dropping heavy rain on villages along the mountains of the eastern Sierra Madre.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON DEAN. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS
RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND IS BECOMING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 17 KNOTS ACROSS MEXICO
BUT STILL PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS. ANY REMNANT CIRCULATION OF
THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO.
THE MID-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD A LITTLE
FASTER...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN CASE
REGENERATION OCCURS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON WHAT WAS ONCE CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE DEAN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0300Z 20.5N 100.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 20.5N 103.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 40
The NHC is closing the books on Dean with this advisory - this will be the last one issued for Dean.
...DEAN WEAKENING OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.0 WEST OR ABOUT
95 MILES...150 KM...NORTHWEST OF MEXICO CITY.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION ACROSS MEXICO IS EXPECEDT TO CONTINUE UNTIL
DISSIPATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...20.5 N...100.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.
August 22, 2007
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE CENTRAL CORE OF DEAN COLLAPSED DURING PASSAGE ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS
HAD EXPANDED TO 55 N MI IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE
BAND. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION FORMING CLOSE TO THE
CIRCULATION CENTER...BUT THIS DOES NOT CORRESPOND WITH ANY WIND
MAXIMUM SEEN BY THE AIRCRAFT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 979
MB AND THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY
MICROWAVE RADIOMETER WERE 64 KT. BASED ON THIS AND THE POSSIBILITY
THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE NOT SAMPLED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
70 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/17. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF DEAN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 12 HR...AND UNTIL
EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION...WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT
THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOWING 15-20 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE LARGE CORE
SIZE...SUGGESTS THAT RE-INTENSIFICATION MAY BE SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 80 KT BEFORE LANDFALL...WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE. DEAN SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE BY
48 HR AT THE LATEST.
THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY BASED ON AIRCRAFT...
BUOY...AND QUIKSCAT OBSERVATIONS. THE INCREASED AREA OF HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS HAS REQUIRED A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE HURRICANE
WARNING ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0900Z 20.3N 94.8W 70 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 20.9N 97.1W 80 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 21.4N 100.2W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 23/1800Z 21.8N 103.5W 20 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
...DEAN BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL LATER TODAY...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF CAMPECHE WESTWARD TO LA CRUZ. PREPARATIONS IN
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM NORTH OF LA CRUZ TO BAHIA ALGODONES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.5 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...
160 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 120 MILES...
195 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF DEAN ACROSS THE GULF
COAST OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.
THE LATEST PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...20.5 N...95.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT.
August 21, 2007
Hurricane Loses Strength as It Crosses Mexico
From the NY Times:
Roofs were ripped off homes, streets were flooded, power lines were down and trees were snapped in two as Hurricane Dean, the most powerful Atlantic storm to hit land since 1988 with winds in excess of 165 miles per hour, passed overhead.
On the road from Felipe Carrillo Puertos, a small town about 100 miles north of Chetumal on the east coast where the storm was originally predicted to come ashore, uprooted trees blocked traffic until federal police officers cleared the way with chainsaws. In towns along the way, people were salvaging belongings and wares from ravaged homes and stores, lugging boxes and goods through sodden roadways. In the town of Limones, a sports center had been crumpled like a piece of paper.
In Pedro Santos, about 45 miles north of Chetumal, a grocer stared at the cement block walls of his store, missing its tin roof. “ We thought it would stand up pretty well, but it wasn’t the case,” said the grocer, Jacobo Reyes, 32. His mother, Carmen Bustillos, 54, said she could not stand living in a hurricane alley. “I think now we should rebuild in a new place, start all over again,” she said, crying.
Chetumal clearly took the brunt of the hurricane’s strike on the Yucatán, with streets inundated and debris everywhere. Hundreds of trees lay strewn along major thoroughfares, and thousands were without power and running water. But with no deaths reported, city officials said that they were relieved.
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
DEAN HAS EMERGED INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
OF 70 KT IS AGAIN BASED ON TYPICAL DECAY RATES...AND HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
BE IN THE CYCLONE AROUND 00Z TO ASCERTAIN THE TRUE STRENGTH OF
DEAN. BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE INNER CORE OF DEAN APPEARS
TO BE LARGELY INTACT...WITH DEEP CONVECTION DIRECTLY OVER THE
CENTER. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW RESTRENGTHENING TO BEGIN FAIRLY
QUICKLY...AND DEAN COULD BE VERY NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY THE
TIME OF ITS LANDFALL IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE OVERLY INFLUENCED BY THE RECENT DECAY AND HAS BEEN
DISCOUNTED FOR THIS ADVISORY. AFTER LANDFALL...THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME DISRUPTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF CENTRAL MEXICO...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE FROM DEAN COULD END UP
WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE 280/17...AND THERE CONTINUES TO
BE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO STEER DEAN ON A TRACK
JUST NORTH OF WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE DIVERGENT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE UKMET SHOWING A BIT OF JOG TO THE RIGHT JUST
BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE IS LARGELY
UNCHANGED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/2100Z 19.4N 91.3W 70 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 19.8N 93.9W 85 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 20.5N 97.1W 95 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 23/0600Z 21.0N 100.5W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 35
...DEAN EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...DEAN EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESO WESTWARD TO TAMPICO. PREPARATIONS IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF TAMPICO TO
LA PESCA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.3 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...
100 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO AND ABOUT 410 MILES...660
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR
THE COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ALONG
THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...AND GUATEMALA...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS.
REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...19.4 N...91.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.
The end of Hurricane Dean
Now that Dean is no longer a Caribbean storm, we won't be sending out any more updates on this storm. We will still be posting the NHC watches and warnings, etc. and we will definitely be following the news of Dean and posting as many pictures, videos, stories and links that we can find in the coming days and weeks, but to get that info, you will just have to visit the Caribbean-On-Line Hurricane blog (so bookmark us if you haven't yet!).
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Category 5 Hurricane Dean Slams Mexico
From the AP:
Dean's path was a stroke of luck for Mexico: It made landfall in a sparsely populated coastline that had already been evacuated, skirting most of the major tourist resorts. It weakened within hours to a Category 2 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph.
The eye of the storm hit land near Majahual, a port popular with cruise liners, and it was racing across the Yucatan Peninsula toward a Tuesday afternoon entry into the Bay of Campeche, where the state oil company evacuated the oil rigs that produce most of Mexico's oil.
In the largely Mayan town of Felipe Carrillo Puerto, at one point about 30 miles from the center of the storm, people stared from their porches at broken tree limbs and electrical cables crisscrossing the streets, some of which were flooded with ankle-deep water.
Tin roofing ripped from houses clunked hollowly as it bounced in the wind whistling through town.
"We began to feel the strong winds about 2 in the morning and you could hear that the trees were breaking and some tin roofs were coming off," said Miguel Colli, a 36-year-old store employee. "Everyone holed up in their houses. Thank God that the worst is over."
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
AFTER MAKING LANDFALL IN A SPARSELY-POPULATED AREA...DEAN CONTINUES
TO TRAVERSE THE SPARSELY-POPULATED SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE EYE HAS FILLED AND CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING. THE
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 90 KT BASED ON THE DECAY COMPONENT OF THE
SHIPS MODEL. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN
ANOTHER 3 TO 5 HOURS AS A HURRICANE...AND WILL HAVE ABOUT 18 HOURS
OVER WATER TO REGAIN STRENGTH. SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT DEAN COULD APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AGAIN...ALTHOUGH
THE AMOUNT OF RESTRENGTHENING WILL BE HARD TO GAUGE UNTIL WE SEE
HOW MUCH OF THE INNER CORE OF THE HURRICANE SURVIVES ITS PASSAGE
OVER LAND.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/17. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECASTING THINKING. DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODEL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/1500Z 19.0N 89.6W 90 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 19.4N 92.2W 85 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 20.0N 95.5W 95 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 20.5N 98.7W 50 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 23/1200Z 21.0N 101.5W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
AT 10 AM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR BELIZE TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF
PROGRESO WESTWARD TO TAMPICO. PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF TAMPICO TO LA PESCA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO...AND
FROM NORTH OF TAMPICO TO LA PESCA.
AT 10 AM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL REMAINING
WATCHES FOR CUBA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 89.6W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......210NE 210SE 75SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 0SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 89.6W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 88.7W
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.4N 92.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 20.0N 95.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.5N 98.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 70 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...120NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.0N 101.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 89.6W
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 34
...DEAN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AT 10 AM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR BELIZE TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF
PROGRESO WESTWARD TO TAMPICO. PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF TAMPICO TO LA PESCA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO...AND
FROM NORTH OF TAMPICO TO LA PESCA.
AT 10 AM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL REMAINING
WATCHES FOR CUBA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...
150 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 85 MILES...140
KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL REACH THE
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A FEW HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ALTHOUGH CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DEAN CROSSES THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE A HURRICANE WHEN
IT REACHES THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240
MILES...390 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY. WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO
8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.
DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...19.0 N...89.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.
Hurricane Dean's Eye Hits Mexico Coast
From the AP:
The eye of the storm made landfall about 4:30 a.m. EDT near Majahual, a popular port with cruise liners located about 40 miles east-northeast of Chetumal and the Belize border, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.
Dean packed winds near 165 mph and was moving west-northwest near 20 mph across the Yucatan peninsula, on course to reach by Tuesday evening the southern Bay of Campeche, where state oil company Petroleos Mexicanos decided Monday to shut down production on the offshore rigs that extract most of the nation's oil.
State civil protection official Francisco de la Cruz described battering winds from his hurricane-proof offices in Chetumal just before the eye reached land.
"There's a lot of noisy wind now with this creature all over us," he said.
The Chetumal city Web site reported power outages as the hurricane knocked trees down across roadways and sheets of metal flew through the air.
Dean was the first Category 5 hurricane to make landfall since Hurricane Andrew in 1992 in South Florida, the hurricane center said.
The hurricane killed at least 12 people across the Caribbean, picked up strength after brushing Jamaica and the Cayman Islands and became a monstrous Category 5 hurricane Monday. Forecasters said Dean was intensifying right up until landfall, feeding off the Caribbean's warm water temperatures.
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
DEAN MADE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
THE CRUISE SHIP PORT OF COSTA MAYA AROUND 0830 UTC...AND THE EYE IS
NOW JUST INLAND. OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE WAS INTENSIFYING RIGHT UP TO
LANDFALL. A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 165 KT WAS MEASURED JUST
NORTH OF THE EYE. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SFMR WERE 124
KT...BUT IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED
WAS NOT REPORTED BY THE SFMR INSTRUMENT. A GPS DROPSONDE IN THE
NORTHERN EYEWALL MEASURED A WIND SPEED OF 178 KT AVERAGED OVER THE
LOWEST 150 METERS OF THE SOUNDING. BASED ON THE DROPSONDE AND THE
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 145 KT. A DROPSONDE
IN THE EYE MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 906 MB JUST PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. SOME HISTORIC NOTES ARE IN ORDER HERE. THE 906 MB
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS THE NINTH LOWEST ON RECORD FOR AN ATLANTIC
BASIN HURRICANE...AND THE THIRD LOWEST AT LANDFALL BEHIND THE 1935
LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND HURRICANE GILBERT OF
1988 IN CANCUN MEXICO. DEAN IS ALSO THE FIRST CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE ANDREW OF
1992.
DEAN WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRAVERSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG THE CENTER REMAINS
OVER LAND. OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STILL BE
A BORDERLINE CAT 1/2 HURRICANE WHEN IT EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST.
ASSUMING THAT THE INNER CORE IS NOT TOO DISRUPTED BY ITS
INTERACTION WITH LAND...DEAN SHOULD REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS
BEFORE ITS FINAL LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/17. DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
COASTLINE OF MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0900Z 18.7N 87.8W 145 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 19.1N 90.4W 85 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 22/0600Z 19.6N 93.9W 95 KT...OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE
36HR VT 22/1800Z 20.1N 96.8W 105 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 23/0600Z 20.5N 100.0W 25 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING
FROM WEST OF CHILITEPEC TO VERACRUZ MEXICO.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF BELIZE
AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESO
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO VERACRUZ. PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
PROVINCES OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND ISLA DE LA
JUVENTUD.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 87.8W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 906 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 90SW 125NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 200SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 87.8W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 86.9W
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.1N 90.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 15SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 60SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.6N 93.9W...OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 75SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.1N 96.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 75SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.5N 100.0W...INLAND...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 87.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 33
...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...
...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING
FROM WEST OF CHILITEPEC TO VERACRUZ MEXICO.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF BELIZE
AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESO
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO VERACRUZ. PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
PROVINCES OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND ISLA DE LA
JUVENTUD.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
EYE OF DEAN MADE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR COSTA MAYA OR MAJAHUAL AROUND 330 AM CDT. THIS
LOCATION IS ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHETUMAL
MEXICO
AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
JUST INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST OR ABOUT
35 MILES... 55 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 195
MILES...315 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TODAY AND LIKELY REACH THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DEAN CROSSES THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
906 MB...26.75 INCHES...JU