Caribbean-On-Line's Caribbean Hurricane Blog



HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23

Published on July 8, 2008 9:16 PM | Comments

Bertha continues to weaken:

BERTHA'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO DEGRADE THIS AFTERNOON AND DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 75 KT BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE VARIOUS INTENSITY ESTIMATES. INDEED...BERTHA'S RAPID INTENSIFICATION YESTERDAY HAS BEEN EQUALED BY ITS RAPID WEAKENING TODAY. SUCH INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS REMAIN A FORECASTING CHALLENGE AND SERVE AS AN IMPORTANT REMINDER FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSITY FORECASTS. GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT-TERM. MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SUGGEST THAT BERTHA MIGHT EVEN REGAIN SOME STRENGTH LATER IN THE FORECAST AS THE SHEAR RELAXES AND THE SSTS INCREASE. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE SHORT-TERM WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER.


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