September 2, 2008
Tropical Update, Monday September 2, 2008
Here is our update on the current named storms:
Gustav is winding down over land - it will probably be a TD when the NHC comes out with their morning update:
Hanna seems to have drifted to the south a bit - it must be soaking the Turks & Caicos islands. It is also closer to Cuba and Hispaniola which can not be good news for those islands that are already drenched. Max sustained winds are 70 miles an hour. The NHC still has this heading north west at some point soon. Only time will tell.
Ike is making a brisk move westward:
AN AMSU PASS AT 0020Z PROVIDED SOME CONFIDENCE IN ESTIMATING A TRACK AT 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE MOVING BRISKLY OFF TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.
And... TD 10 (!) has formed way out in the open Atlantic:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 23.9W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
You can find all the latest NHC updates on these systems in the left hand navigation on the Hurricane blog home page.
In short - the Turks & Caicos, the Bahamas, Cuba, Hispaniola, and the US east coast from Florida to at least South Carolina need to be on alert for these next couple of storms - Hanna and Ike. TD 10 is a little too far out yet but the initial path looks to take it towards Ike's path if not a little more to the north. Again though, it is early and you never know. The NHC didn't have the jog to the south for Gustav that took it to the south coast of Jamaica, and they also had not imagine Hanna stalling around the T&C for a couple of days. The models do what they can - but every scenario is a new one. The only thing we know for sure is that the hurricane season is in full swing. Stay safe.
NY Times Gustav coverage
Here is a good feature from the NY Times on Gustav as it hit Louisiana.
September 1, 2008
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
Of course they may change that when they crunch the data later...
Hurricane Gustav downgraded to category two
So the NHC did downgrade the storm to a Category 2 before it made land fall. That is a huge difference - it could have been much worse. From the Guardian:
The National Hurricane Centre said Gustav had weakened to a category two hurricane by 8am (2pm BST) -- a storm with winds of 155-180kph (95-110 mph), which can generate a storm surge of around 2-3 metres.
Morgan City, La. Nearly Empty As Gustav Hits
Raw Video: Gustav Lashes Houma, La.
Hurricane Gustav hits US coast
From AFP, it seems like Gustav did lose a little steam before land fall:
Hurricane Gustav slide show
A slide show of Gustav images from the NY Times:
The Eye of Gustav
Looks like the eye on Gustav is dead in the middle of the coast now - at about 11:45 AM EST:
Gustav update, September 1, 2008
At about 9 AM EST Gustav was just a bit off the coast of Lousiana: 
Gustav does not seem to be strengthening at all, and will now degrade as it goes over land. It looks like the Gulf Coast got a little bit of break right now (relatively - this is still a major storm) - Gustav is definitely not as strong as it once was and could have been:
Deadly Gustav Ready to Wallop Gulf Coast
August 31, 2008
National Hurricane Center Gustav Forecast
Carnival cruise extended by Gustav
If you were looking forward to seeing friends or family from this ship, you'll have to wait a couple of more days:
The Carnival Ecstasy, which visited Progreso in the Mexican state of Yucatan, will "remain at sea at a safe distance away from the storm" and will return to Galveston on Wednesday, the cruise line said in a written statement.
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SUGGESTS THAT GUSTAV IS GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A HINT OF AN EYE RETURNING. ADDITIONALLY...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER HAS FALLEN TO 957 MB. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 105 KT WHILE THE MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS WERE 93 KT. ALSO...THE CONVECTION...WHILE VIGOROUS...IS STILL RATHER ASYMMETRIC AROUND THE 30 NM WIDE EYE THAT IS OPEN TO THE SE. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 100 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS WOBBLING BETWEEN 315 AND 320 DEGREES AT 15-16 KT...WITH 320/16 BEING THE ADVISORY MOTION. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXPECTED TO STEER GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE NEW GUIDANCE RUNS...MOST NOTABLY THE HWRF...SHOW A SLIGHT LEFT TURN AFTER 12 HR WITH A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE LANDFALL POINT ON THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND SINCE IT LIES NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SOME ADDITIONAL SMALL SHIFTS MAY BE NECESSARY LATER. AFTER 48-72 HR...THERE REMAINS MAJOR DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON WHETHER GUSTAV WILL RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES...SHEAR APART AND STALL OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS...OR TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HR FOLLOWS THE SHEAR-APART-AND-STALL SCENARIO...CALLING FOR GUSTAV TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS OVER LAND.
ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT GUSTAV REMAINS IN ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR...WITH A LOT OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE EYE HAS MOVED NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP WARM WATER OF THE LOOP CURRENT...AND THAT COMBINED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED SHEAR REDUCES THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS NO STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL...WHILE THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST ABOUT 10 KT OF STRENGTHENING. GIVEN THE FALLING PRESSURES AND THE COLD CONVECTION...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO 110 KT BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. GUSTAV SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 120 HR.
Category 5 Hurricane Gustav Hits Cuba
Gulf Coast Prepares As Gustav Slams Cuba
"Officials measured gusts of 212 mph"
Wow - not much is usually left at that point (from the NY Times):
A Cuban television reporter on the Isla de la Juventud said the storm had felt like ''the blast wave from a bomb.''
August 30, 2008
Photos from Cayman as Gustav passed through
Here are some pictures from Ann in the Cayman Islands from Friday, August 29:
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
Gustav update
Gustav is now a category 4 and could become a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. This already deadly storm is now at a much higher danger level than it was when it came through Hispaniola and the Cayman Islands. Western Cuba, and eventually the Gulf Coast need to be prepared for the severity of Gustav.
Gustav Swells to 'Dangerous' Category 3
Gustav becomes a hurricane
Living in Grand Cayman
Living in Grand Cayman is a blog by someone... living in Grand Cayman. Check out their recent posts, many that are about Gustav. Thankfully it is looking like the Caymans didn't get hit that hard.
Gustav swells to dangerous Cat 3 storm off Cuba
From the AP:
The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami called the storm, which has already killed 71 people in the Caribbean, ''dangerous'' and said it had become the second major hurricane of the Atlantic season, following Bertha in July.
Cuban state television announced that all buses and trains to and from Havana were suspended, as was ferry service to the Isla de Juventud, the outlying Cuban island next in Gustav's path.
Authorities announced they were prepared to ''protect'' the 20,000 tourists in Matanzas province, which includes the famous beach resort of Varadero.
Gustav rolled over the Cayman Islands Friday with fierce winds that tore down trees and power lines.
At first light Saturday, Associated Press journalists found that Grand Cayman island was spared major damage. Big surging waves pounded at the island, but there was little flooding, and wind damage was limited because islanders had removed signs and other items that could blow away.
Gustav swells to dangerous Cat 3 storm off Cuba
From the AP:
The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami called the storm "dangerous" and said it had reached the status of a major hurricane, the second one of this Atlantic season after Bertha in July.
Gustav, which killed 71 people in the Caribbean, rolled over the Cayman Islands Friday with fierce winds that tore down trees and power lines. It was expected to cross Cuba's cigar country Saturday and head into the Gulf of Mexico by Sunday.
Gustav first struck Cayman Brac and Little Cayman, the smaller easternmost "Sister Islands" in the chain. Storm surge and heavy rains flooded the streets.
August 29, 2008
Tropical Storms Hanna and Gustav August 29, 2008
From the NOAA:
A hurricane again, Gustav plows toward Caymans
From the AP:
Gustav, which killed 71 people in the Caribbean, was expected to swirl through the Cayman Islands, a tiny offshore tax haven studded with resorts and cruise-ship souvenir shops, before crossing Cuba's cigar country and heading into the Gulf of Mexico by Sunday.
Well-heeled tourists fled Cayman hotels by air, while Katrina victims in Mississippi still living in emergency cottages and trailers were told to evacuate beginning this weekend.
Hotels on the Cayman Islands asked guests to leave, then after the airport closed prepared to shelter those who remained. Chris Smith, of Frederick, Maryland, said his hotel handed out wrist bands marked with guests' names and room numbers so that "if something happens they can quickly identify us."
"That was a little bit sobering," he said, standing outside the hotel with his luggage.
Gustav Set to Batter Cuba, Enter Gulf of Mexico
Collapsed bridge in Kingston
Dramatic photo from the AP - (Collin Reid/Associated Press) of a bridge collapsed in Kingston, Jamaica, on Friday after heavy rains from Tropical Storm Gustav.
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 20
...GUSTAV BECOMES A HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE WESTERN CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...AND FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...AND GRANMA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES... 160 KM...EAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 380 MILES...610 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT...OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA ON SATURDAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND GUSTAV COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE NEAR THE TIME IT CROSSES WESTERN CUBA.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH 8 TO 13 FEET POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INCLUDING ISLA DE JUVENTUD.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN CUBA.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...19.2 N...79.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT.
Gustav Grows Stronger, Aims for Cayman Islands, Western Cuba
From the VOA:
Gustav was expected to pass near or over the Cayman Islands later Friday and western Cuba on Saturday. Forecasters say the storm that has already caused at least 72 deaths could produce more than half a meter of rain in some areas.
The Miami-based National Hurricane Center said Gustav had sustained winds of up to 120 kilometers per hour mid-afternoon Friday. The center says the Category one storm is likely to grow into a major hurricane over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
Cayman Webcams for Gustav
We have a Cayman Islands webcam up courtesy of Cayman Chillin, a rental villa in the Cayman Islands. The owner has several webcams on the property - it is a good chance to get a look at Gustav, as long as the electricity and the web server can hold out!
Gustav morning news
Looks like the center of Gustav is nearly clear of Jamaica this morning. There is still lots of wind and rain, and reading some of the first hand reports it sounds like the back side of the storm was worse than the front.
Some headlines:
Gustav batters Jamaica, expected to strengthen
Hurricane Gustav kills nearly 70 in Caribbean
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
Gustav is looking tricky - the track could still go almost anywhere - and the NHC is expecting to strengthen rapidly into a hurricane:
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT GUSTAV HAS AN EXPANDING CLOUD SHIELD AND IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURES. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE THAT HAS BEEN SAMPLING THE STORM'S CIRCULATION FOUND THAT THE SIZE OF GUSTAV HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED. ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO SAMPLE THE CENTER...PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 52 KT WERE OBSERVED...ALONG WITH SIMILAR VALUES FOR THE SFMR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 285/7. THERE IS A COMPLICATED EVOLUTION TO THE STEERING CURRENTS AROUND GUSTAV DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA THAT HAS BEEN STEERING THE STORM WESTWARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TODAY. THE BERMUDA HIGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CAUSE GUSTAV TO MOVE MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. ONE BIG QUESTION IS THE EVOLUTION OF A MID- TO UPPER- LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. SOME OF THE MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS/GFDL/HWRF...ARE SHOWING THIS LOW CREATING ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE BERMUDA HIGH TO ALLOW A MOTION MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES CUBA. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THAT TRACK BRIEFLY OCCURRED...BUT IN THE LONGER-TERM...A HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE GUSTAV TO GRADUALLY BEND TO THE LEFT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE BEND. THE UKMET AND GFS HAVE HAD LARGE CHANGES TO THEIR FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS...AND GIVEN THE INCREASING MODEL SPREAD...WE'VE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. HOPEFULLY A G-IV MISSION LATER TODAY WILL HELP RESOLVE SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES.
AFTER THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM JAMAICA...SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE VERY LIGHT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND COMBINED WITH THE DEEP WARM CARIBBEAN WATERS...COULD PRODUCE A STRONG HURRICANE VERY QUICKLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW RAPID INTENSIFICATION BEFORE IT REACHES WESTERN CUBA AND COULD BE CONSERVATIVE AS SOME MODELS SHOW CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH AT THAT TIME. A LARGE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS TROUGH MAY IMPART SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON GUSTAV AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST SHOWS SOME WEAKENING DUE TO THE SHEAR...GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
August 28, 2008
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
Gustav could become a major hurricane:
It appears from various news reports that Jamaica is having wind and rain but not getting hit too hard, and currently Gustav is only classified as a tropical storm. It has a long way to go and could lose more steam than expected traveling the length of Jamaica, but if it makes it to the other side a lot of warm water (fuel) will be waiting for it - and the Cayman Islands unfortunately look to be directly in line at the moment.
Tropical Storm Hanna forms as Gustav soaks Jamaica
From McClatchy:
Hanna, the eighth named storm of the 2008 hurricane season, is spinning about 1,500 miles east-southeast of Miami with 40 mph winds. Forecasters said Hanna could grow into a hurricane by Labor Day but likely wouldn't threaten the U.S. coast until later next week, if at all.
Meanwhile, Gustav's winds increased to 70 mph from 45 mph overnight as it took a turn toward Jamaica. The center of Gustav was moving over the island's eastern shoreline at 2 p.m., about 40 miles east of Kingston.
51 Haitians die in Hurricane Gustav
Just terrible news from Haiti:
Civil protection department director Marie Alta Jean-Baptiste says the death count increased fivefold on Thursday as news reached officials from remote areas.
At least 25 people were killed near Jacmel, on the country's southern peninsula, where Gustav came ashore Tuesday as a Category 1 hurricane.
Civil protection official Jean-Michel Sabbat says most of those people were killed by landslides and falling trees in the mountains.
Tourists flee as Gustav churns toward Jamaica
From the AP:
Gustav moved away from the island of Hispaniola, where it killed 23 people in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and inched toward Jamaica's low-lying capital, 80 miles (130 kilometers) to the west. Forecasters predicted it would hug Jamaica's southern shore before making a near-direct hit on Grand Cayman.
Even as tourists searched for flights off the islands, officials urged calm. Theresa Foster, one of the owners of the Grand Caymanian Resort, said Gustav didn't look as threatening as Hurricane Ivan, which destroyed 70 percent of Grand Cayman's buildings four years ago.
"Whatever was going to blow away has already blown away," she said.
Tropical Storm Gustav shifts track to the south
From Reuters:
"The re-formation of the center has caused a big southward change ... and Gustav is now forecast to pass near the south coast of Jamaica," the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.
While the storm's eventual U.S. landfall could be anywhere from the Florida Panhandle to Texas, one of its likely tracks was west of New Orleans, the southern U.S. city devastated by Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
Gustav was projected to hit the U.S. Gulf Coast around Monday, two days after the third anniversary of Katrina, which killed 1,500 people and caused at least $80 billion in damage in several Gulf Coast states.
The NHC basically lost track of this storm overnight. The shift south is a pretty major move. It just reinforces the fact that you have to be prepared for anything when these storms are within a few hundred miles of your location.
New Orleans Watching Gustav's Path
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands need to be prepared for Gustav:
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS FOUND MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 67 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 60 KT AT THE SURFACE. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY FORECAST TO REFLECT THE CURRENT AND FORECAST INTENSITY. THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. THE STRENGTHENING OF GUSTAV HAS PROMPTED THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA TO ISSUE A HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA.
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE ISSUANCE OF AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 800 AM EDT.
Tropical Storm Gustav Satellite Image
Here is a picture from yesterday:
