Caribbean-On-Line's Caribbean Hurricane Blog



HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 25

Published on August 30, 2008 5:22 PM | Comments

THE CENTER OF THE EYE OF GUSTAV HAD BEEN HUGGING THE EASTERN COAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IS NOW OVER WATER IN BETWEEN THAT ISLAND AND MAINLAND WESTERN CUBA. AIRCRAFT FIXES CONTINUE TO COME IN JUST ABOUT RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS GUSTAV HAS BEEN WOBBLING SLIGHTLY...BUT THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS RELATIVELY WELL-ESTABLISHED AT 315/13...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE VARIOUS MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A TRACK INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HWRF...UKMET...AND NOGAPS...WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY FORECAST A STALL JUST OFFSHORE...HAVE COME INTO THE FOLD WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF...RESULTING IN A CONSENSUS TRACK THAT FALLS VERY CLOSE TO THE PATH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS AGREEMENT HAS ALSO RESULTED...HOWEVER...IN A CONSENSUS TRACK THAT REACHES THE COAST A LITTLE FASTER. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS ALMOST EXACTLY ALONG THE PATH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT MAINTAINS THE CURRENT HEADING AND SPEED ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST...ARRIVING THERE A LITTLE SOONER THAN BEFORE. WHILE THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE PATH AND SPEED OF THE TRACK THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE MODEL SPREAD IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY LARGE TO SERVE AS A REMINDER THAT WE CANNOT SPECIFY EXACTLY WHERE OR WHEN THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...ALL OF THE MODELS RESPOND TO WEAKENING STEERING CURRENTS...WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...BY FORECASTING A DRAMATIC SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED OVER LOUISIANA AND EASTERN TEXAS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN FOLLOWS SUIT.


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