Caribbean-On-Line's Caribbean Hurricane Blog



Hurricane Hanna

Raw footage from Haiti

Published on September 7, 2008 5:39 AM | Comments

Hard to say when this video was taken - but this is from Hanna, not Ike:




'Hundreds' killed by Haiti storm

Published on September 6, 2008 4:17 PM | Comments

More horrific news from Haiti:

Almost 500 bodies have been found in the port city of Gonaives, Haiti, after floodwaters caused by recent storms receded, according to reports.


Tropical Storm Hanna kills more than 130 people in Haiti

Published on September 6, 2008 4:35 AM | Comments



Raw footage from the DR of Hanna

Published on September 6, 2008 4:34 AM | Comments



Tropical Storm Hanna Charges for Carolinas

Published on September 6, 2008 4:33 AM | Comments



Hanna roars ashore

Published on September 6, 2008 4:30 AM | Comments

From the AP:

MYRTLE BEACH, S.C. (AP) -- Forecasters say the center of Tropical Storm Hanna has hit the tourist beaches near the line between North and South Carolina.

The National Hurricane Center said Hanna came on shore at about 3:20 a.m. Saturday. The storm had winds near 70 mph before it roared onto land.

The storm is expected to race up the Eastern Seaboard and dump heavy rain over the weekend from Virginia to New England.

Emergency officials are already looking past Hanna to Hurricane Ike several hundreds miles out in the Atlantic. Ike is more powerful than Hanna and could be approaching southern Florida by Monday as Hanna spins away over the North Atlantic.

It looks like it is raining all the way up to NJ already -



Hanna, Ike update

Published on September 5, 2008 4:34 PM | Comments

It looks like Hanna is now an east coast issue - but Ike could come straight through the Turks and Caicos, The Bahamas, and brush by Cuba before turning north towards Florida's west coast. We will keep a close eye on Ike over the weekend. The next update from the NHC is due out soon and we will post that also (you can find the latest in the left hand navigation). For now, here are some news links:

Fierce Hurricane Ike targets Gulf

Fierce Hurricane Ike targets Miami, Hanna nears

As usual, there is more news for the US than for the islands which are in the direct path of the storm -

Here are the relevant links to the cruise lines for their updates:

Carnival

Norwegian Cruise Lines

Royal Caribbean

Josephine thankfully looks like it is meandering in the open Atlantic.



Hanna Eyes Coast, Ike Possibly Following

Published on September 5, 2008 9:42 AM | Comments



TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34

Published on September 5, 2008 5:57 AM | Comments

The good news on Hanna from our perspective is that it is finally clear of the Caribbean islands, the Turks & Caicos, and nearly clear of the Bahamas. That is our focus here since we are a Caribbean travel website. Unfortunately, the east coast of the US now has to deal with this storm - the good news for them is that it seems that it will not regain hurricane strength. I can imagine property damage, but hopefully there won't be any loss of life in the US like there was in Haiti with all this time to prepare.

TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY SAMPLING HANNA RECENTLY FOUND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 73 KT. THIS WOULD NORMALLY CORRESPOND TO SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 60 KT USING THE STANDARD REDUCTION. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WERE FOUND IN AN AREA ABSENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ONLY SHOWED ABOUT 51 KT IN THE SAME AREA. IN ADDITION...A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE AREA HAD A SURFACE WIND OF 57 KT. THESE DATA SUGGEST THE INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR 55 KT. HANNA HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO GENERATE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER DUE TO SHEAR AND DRY AIR...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT BURST WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WHILE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...ALL BUT ONE OF THE INTENSITY MODELS KEEP HANNA JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. STILL...THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...AND HANNA COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

HANNA IS BEING STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RESULTING IN A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320/17. HANNA IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH TODAY THEN NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THEREAFTER...HANNA IS EXPECTED TO RACE NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. TRACK MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD THE WEST AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT THROUGH 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN HANNA'S LARGE SIZE...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AS THE INCLEMENT WEATHER EXTENDS WELL BEYOND THE CENTER.



Hanna, Ike and Josephine: Triple Storm Threat

Published on September 4, 2008 5:35 PM | Comments

This isn't that old, but the NHC seems to think that Hanna will not become a hurricane again. Also - Ike will probably weaken a bit, and they describe it here as a "monster" storm when in fact at this point the footprint of Ike is rather small for a category 4 storm. Sort of distressing that they have to hype the news like this and can't just report the facts. And no mention in this report of the number of dead in Haiti - just the phrase "wreaked havoc":




TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32

Published on September 4, 2008 5:25 PM | Comments

TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008 500 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING HANNA IS FINDING THE CIRCULATION CENTER AT 850 MB DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MEAN CENTER OF ROTATION APPARENT IN THE LOW CLOUD LINES. THERE ARE ALSO MULTIPLE SWIRLS...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS JUMPED A LITTLE BIT TO THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY. ALTHOUGH A COUPLE MORE SHIFTS ARE POSSIBLE...THE ORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME...THAT IS...MORE ALONG THE TRACK...AND THEN HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT ON THE TRACK. THE BASIC FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT LEFTWARD SHIFT...AND IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

RECONNAISSANCE DATA THUS FAR DO NOT SUPPORT ANY INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY AIR IMPINGING ON HANNA FROM THE SOUTHEAST...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH A LITTLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...NONE OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE MODELS NOW MAKE HANNA A HURRICANE AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW TOPS OUT AT 60 KT. HURRICANE WATCHES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT HANNA BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST...AND PEOPLE ARE REMINDED THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A MINIMAL HURRICANE.



Hanna looking weaker - for now

Published on September 4, 2008 11:12 AM | Comments

From the NHC:

VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IS CHOKING OFF CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE OF HANNA...AND THE CYCLONE HAS A VERY SUBTROPICAL APPEARANCE. CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AND THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS HAVE COME DOWN AS WELL. BASED ON SOME 52 KT SFMR WINDS AROUND 11Z...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT.

It looks like there just isn't any more moisture around in the atmosphere for Hanna to get a hold of - the storm still looks pretty organized in the satellite images.



Carnival Cruise Lines tropical update

Published on September 4, 2008 10:58 AM | Comments

SEPTEMBER 3, 2008 - 6:30 PM

We are closely monitoring the progress of Tropical Storm Hanna and Hurricane Ike. All of Carnival's ships will continue to operate at a safe distance from this storm at all times. Our number one priority is the safety of our guests and crew.

We have made some itinerary changes for several departures this week in order to provide our guests with an enjoyable shore experience, while operating the ships in the safest and most comfortable conditions possible. These are listed below:

Carnival Ecstasy Wed., 9/3 departure from Galveston: The ship will sail on a 3 Day Cruise-To-Nowhere

Carnival Fantasy Thur., 8/28 departure from Mobile: The ship was delayed arriving back into Mobile. The U.S. Coast Guard would not allow any ship traffic to enter the Port until they had completed a full evaluation of the impact from Hurricane Gustav to the channel and important navigation aids. We expect the Carnival Fantasy to dock in Mobile at about 5:00 PM.

Carnival Fantasy Wed., 9/3 departure from Mobile: The ship will sail on a 4 Day Cruise visiting Progreso, Yucatan (Fri) and returning Sun., 9/7

Carnival Miracle Fri., 8/29 departure from New York: The ship will visit Port Canaveral (Mon), Freeport (Tue) and Newport, Rhode Island (Fri)

Carnival Inspiration Sat., 8/30 departure from Tampa: The ship will visit Cozumel (Tue)

Carnival Glory Sat., 8/30 departure from Pt. Canaveral: The ship will visit St. Thomas (Tue) and St. Maarten (Wed)

Carnival Liberty Sat., 8/30 departure from Miami: The ship will visit the ports of call in reverse order Ocho Rios (Mon), Grand Cayman (Tue), Cozumel (Thur)

Carnival Conquest Sun. 8/31 departure from Galveston: The ship will visit Progreso, Yucatan (Tue), Cozumel (Wed) and Grand Cayman (Thur).

Carnival Legend Sun. 8/31 departure from Tampa: The ship will visit Key West (Mon), Cozumel (Wed), Belize (Thur) and Isla Roatan (Fri)

Carnival Sensation Sun. 8/31 departure from Port Canaveral: The ship will shorten her call to Nassau (Tue) to 5:00 PM instead of staying overnight until Wednesday 6:00 AM

Carnival Triumph Sun. 8/31 departure from Miami: The ship will cancel her call to Half Moon Cay (Mon) and Grand Turk (Fri) and visit the scheduled ports of call of St. Thomas (Wed) and San Juan (Thur)
We are looking forward to welcoming our guests aboard all of the Carnival "Fun Ships". The officers, staff and crew on each of our ships are dedicated to delivering a great cruise vacation experience.




Celebrity Cruises

Published on September 4, 2008 10:56 AM | Comments

Celebrity Cruises says:

Tropical Weather Update - ( September 02, 2008) - Celebrity Cruises continues to closely monitor the path and progress of Tropical Storm Hanna to ensure our guests enjoy safe and comfortable cruises, and to make certain our ships steer clear of the storm.

The safety of our guests and crew members is always our foremost concern.

Currently, Celebrity Cruises has no ships sailing in the Caribbean and will not have to alter any itineraries due to tropical weather.



Royal Caribbean Tropical Weather Update

Published on September 4, 2008 10:50 AM | Comments

This is from yesterday:

Tropical Weather Update September 3, 2008 - 6:30 p.m. Royal Caribbean International continues to closely monitor the path and progress of Tropical Storm Hanna to ensure our guests enjoy safe and comfortable cruises, and to make certain our ships steer clear of the storm.

The safety of our guests and crew members is always our foremost concern.

Given the location and projected path of Tropical Storm Hanna, we are altering the itinerary of four ships:

Ships sailing from Port Canaveral
UPDATE -- Sovereign of the Seas, which departs Port Canaveral Friday, September 5, is expected to sail as scheduled. Guests booked on this sailing should continue to monitor these postings for further updates.

Sovereign of the Seas, which departed Port Canaveral Monday, September 1, will sail a revised itinerary. The ship will visit Nassau, Bahamas, Tuesday; and Key West, Florida, Wednesday, spending the night and departing Thursday morning.

Mariner of the Seas, which departed Port Canaveral Sunday, August 31, will sail a modified itinerary. The ship will not visit Coco Cay, Bahamas, Monday, but will makes its scheduled port calls in St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands, Wednesday; and Philipsburg, St. Maarten, Thursday.

Ships sailing from the Port of Miami
Majesty of the Seas, which departed the Port of Miami Monday, September 1, will sail a revised itinerary. The ship will visit Nassau, Bahamas, Tuesday; and visit Key West, Florida, Wednesday, spending the night and departing Thursday evening.

Liberty of the Seas, which departed the Port of Miami Saturday, August 30, will sail a revised itinerary, with its ports of call simply reordered. The ship will visit Labadee, Haiti, Monday; San Juan, Puerto Rico, Tuesday; and Philipsburg, St. Maarten, Wednesday.

At this time, no other Royal Caribbean International ships are being adversely impacted by tropical weather.

We will continue to closely monitor weather conditions and will update this information Wednesday, September 4, at 10:30 a.m.

But their itinerary update page says, "There are currently no significant itinerary changes.".



Norwegian Cruise Lines update

Published on September 4, 2008 10:40 AM | Comments

We were in touch with Norwegian Cruise Lines this morning and their spokesperson says that they:

"...don't currently have any changes with regard to our itineraries. If there is a change in the next week it will be on the homepage of our site."

So this news is up to date as of 10:40 AM EST. The two NCL ships mentioned in the Cruise Critic article from yesteday already had their itineraries changed before they left port.




Cruise Line update

Published on September 4, 2008 9:25 AM | Comments

I wish I had more news, and I am somewhat surprised that the cruise lines aren't making it easier to find on their websites. We have an inquiry in with RCL and are searching the web for more. I would advise anyone traveling a Bahamas, Bermuda, DR route to call their cruise line company and make sure you have the latest.

There is a story on this website but it is from yesterday:

So far, the weather is affecting nine ships at Carnival Cruises alone, as well as operations of Norwegian Cruise Line and Royal Caribbean International.

In the latest change, Royal Caribbean said two Florida-based ships that normally stop at CocoCay, the line's private island in the Bahamas, will instead head to Key West, Florida this week.

Mariner of the Seas also is skipping CocoCay this week but will not substitute another port.

The ship will go ahead with its scheduled calls in St.Thomas and St. Maarten.

Another Royal Caribbean ship, Liberty of the Seas, based in Miami, also is being affected by the storm, stating that it is switching the order of its port calls.

Also switching gears due to Hanna, is Norwegian Cruise Line's New York based Norwegian Spirit, which is heading to Bermuda this week instead of the Bahamas.

Another Norwegian ship, the Miami-based Norwegian Sky, will skip the Bahamas in favour of the Western Caribbean.

Ah - here you go - Cruise Critic has a page with updates.



TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30

Published on September 4, 2008 7:21 AM | Comments

TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008 500 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

LOOKS CAN CERTAINLY BE DECEIVING. HANNA HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING VERY MUCH DEEP CONVECTION SINCE AN EARLIER STRONG BURST DIED AFTER ABOUT 04Z...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST CONTINUES TO IMPOSE STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR. NEVERTHELESS...HANNA HAS A LARGE AND ROBUST CIRCULATION...AND A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 990 MB. FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB HAVE BEEN AS STRONG AS 65 KT...AND NUMEROUS SFMR VALUES OF 55-60 KT HAVE BEEN RETRIEVED. I HAVE NO GOOD REASON TO DISCOUNT THE SFMR WINDS...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT. GIVEN THAT THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO PERSIST OVER HANNA EVEN AS IT GAINS LATITUDE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...STRENGTHENING WOULD AT FIRST GLANCE SEEM UNLIKELY. CONSISTENT WITH THAT THINKING...THE GFDL AND HWRF SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OR EVEN SOME WEAKENING...EXCEPT MUCH LATER WHEN HANNA BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE SHIPS AND LGEM...DESPITE DIAGNOSING LITTLE CHANGE IN SHEAR...FORECAST A LITTLE STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STATUS. A CONSENSUS OF THESE VARIOUS MODELS WOULD YIELD A FLAT 60 KT INTENSITY FORECAST UNTIL HANNA PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE CAROLINAS...BUT FOR CONTINUITY AND SINCE HANNA IS ALREADY PRODUCING WINDS JUST SHY OF HURRICANE STRENGTH....65 KT IS STILL SHOWN EXPLICITLY IN THE FORECAST. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS THEN FORECAST AS HANNA ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.

DESPITE HAVING AIRCRAFT FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION IS HARD TO GAGE...PROBABLY DUE TO THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/10. HANNA SHOULD ROUND THE BUILDING WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND ROUGHLY HUG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...BUT PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ALONG THE WAY. PERHAPS DUE IN PART TO THE BENEFIT OF DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET MISSION LAST NIGHT...THE LATEST MODEL TRACKS HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE TIGHTER AGREEMENT...AND IN GENERAL THEY HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...TO BE CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS. AS ALWAYS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST OF THE CENTER...ESPECIALLY SINCE MUCH OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA IS WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.



Tropical Storm Hanna Batters Haiti; Ike Strengthens

Published on September 4, 2008 7:13 AM | Comments

This is really horrible news from Haiti - I see we are sending a billion dollars to Georgia to help them recover - are we doing anything in Haiti?

Hanna has already killed at least 25 people in Haiti, where rains inundated Gonaives, a city of 300,000 north of the Haitian capital, Port-au-Prince, Elisabeth Byrs, spokeswoman for the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, said today in a telephone interview. Agence France- Presse said 61 had died.

"I don't know how much longer we will remain alive," Germain Michelet, a priest who is stranded by floodwaters on the second floor of a building in Gonaives, told AFP. "If we are forced to go through another night under these conditions, there will not be many survivors."



Hanna death toll climbs to 26

Published on September 3, 2008 5:21 PM | Comments

From the Herald Sun:

TROPICAL storm Hanna has claimed at least 26 lives in Haiti, a toll officials fear will climb during the search for survivors in the debris from damaged and destroyed homes.

Officials said thousands of people here were left homeless or with damaged dwellings following the storm.

Meanwhile, the neighbouring Dominican Republic, which shares the island of Hispaniola with Haiti, evacuated more than 7500, but suffered no loss of life, officials said.

Among the hardest hit areas was Gonaives, a city of of 300,000 north of Port-au-Prince, which was left totally submerged after being drenched by Hanna's torrential rains.

"The situation in Gonaives is extremely urgent. I appeal for help," said the city's mayor Stephen Moise.



Hanna Hammers Haiti

Published on September 3, 2008 5:20 PM | Comments



Report from the Turks & Caicos on Hanna

Published on September 3, 2008 12:33 PM | Comments

The bloggers we mentioned the other day just made a new post - they got hit "pretty hard":

Just a quick note to let you all know we are ok. Hanna hit us again pretty hard and apparently has not had enough and will hit us again this evening.

We've lost our Cay Lime - the photo of Gringo checking up on her is probably the last you will see. Those docks you see in the photo completely let go and at least a dozen nice boats were lost. More details on the next post.

Not too sure when we'll be able to touch base again. Hanna is on her way back and we're looking down the line at Ike which all by all predictions will cruise right over us.

We are currently on borrowed eletricity just to let everyone know we are ok and recharge some things. Then we'll be headed back out to our place.

thanks for the prayers and comments!!

Living in the tropics isn't just sunshine and cocktails - at least they are okay!



Turks & Caicos Hanna photos

Published on September 3, 2008 11:56 AM | Comments

We found some photos of the Turks & Caicos from September 2:



Hanna to move across Bahamas

Published on September 3, 2008 11:49 AM | Comments

From CNN:

MIAMI, Florida (CNN) -- Tropical Storm Hanna took a slow, meandering path through the Caribbean on Wednesday, creeping toward the Bahamas with a U.S. landfall expected as soon as Friday.

At 11 a.m. ET, the storm was about 95 miles east-southeast of Great Inagua Island in the Bahamas, the National Hurricane Center said.

Hanna's winds were at 60 mph, but it was expected to strengthen and could regain hurricane status by Thursday, the center said.

The storm's erratic path frustrated meteorologists who'd like to narrow their predictions of where it will hit the U.S.



Hanna expected to move over the Bahamas

Published on September 3, 2008 6:54 AM | Comments

From the AP:

SAINT-MARC, Haiti (AP) -- A day after sending Haitian families scrambling onto rooftops to avoid flooding, Tropical Storm Hanna was meandering off the country's northern coast Wednesday, dumping heavy rain on much of Hispaniola.

But Hanna was expected to begin moving over the Bahamas later in the day.

A day earlier, Hanna added to the misery in Haiti, a country still recovering from drenchings by Hurricane Gustav and Tropical Storm Fay in the past two weeks.

In all, floods and mudslides from the three storms have killed more than 100 people as Haiti's deforested hills melted away in torrential rains.

Families screamed for help from rooftops Tuesday in a flooded city as U.N. peacekeepers and rescue convoys tried in vain to reach them.

By Tuesday night, Hanna claimed 21 lives in Haiti, including 12 dead in the state containing the cutoff city of Gonaives, said Marie Alta Jean-Baptiste of the country's civil protection office in Port-au-Prince, the capital.



5:00 AM Updates

Published on September 3, 2008 6:50 AM | Comments

The 5:00 AM EST updates are out from the NHC - you can find them in the links on the left. Hanna looks like she will not regain hurricane strength before making landfall, possibly in South Carolina.



Hanna may just blow apart

Published on September 2, 2008 6:07 PM | Comments

According to the latest from the NHC there is a slight chance Hanna may not get herself together again - not as a hurricane at least:

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING HANNA CONFIRMS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED. THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 850 MB WAS 66 KT WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 55 KT AT THE SURFACE. HANNA WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER STRONG SHEAR FOR ANOTHER 12-24 HOURS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. BY TOMORROW...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO CUT OFF JUST WEST OF HANNA AND THEN DROP SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IF THIS EVOLUTION MATERIALIZES...AND ASSUMING HANNA IS ABLE TO FIGHT OFF THE SHEAR...THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR HANNA TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A DAY OR SO...IN LINE WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY MODELS. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO IS COMPLEX...WHICH RESULTS IN LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.


Hurricane Hanna Poses Threat to U.S.

Published on September 2, 2008 4:26 PM | Comments



Hanna May Regain Hurricane Strength, Aim at East U.S.

Published on September 2, 2008 4:19 PM | Comments

Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Hanna is forecast to regain hurricane strength this week as it crosses the Bahamas and then is likely to take aim at the southeast coast of the U.S.

The system weakened to a tropical storm today and drenched the Bahamas and the island of Hispaniola, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said on its Web site. Two tropical storms trailed Hanna further out in the Atlantic. Ike formed yesterday and Josephine became the season's 10th named system today, the center said.

"Some strengthening is possible on Wednesday and Thursday" for Hanna, the Miami-based center said. "Hanna will move over the southeastern Bahamas tonight and into the central Bahamas tomorrow."

The center's computer models project Hanna will become a hurricane again within the next two days and approach the northeast coast of Florida on Sept. 5.



TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23

Published on September 2, 2008 12:46 PM | Comments

So Hanna was affected by shear and is blown apart a bit. The NHC discussion doesn't sound too confident of whether it will actually get back to hurricane strength or not but it is possible. Either way it is dumping a ton of rain on the area and still needs to be watched closely.

TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

HANNA HAS FINALLY SUCCUMBED TO THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A SHRINKING CDO FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THIS MIGHT BE A BIT GENEROUS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE HANNA THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE A BETTER INTENSITY ESTIMATE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP EDGE OR DEFORMATION AXIS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CIRRUS CANOPY SUGGESTING THAT THE SHEAR WILL PERSIST IN THE SHORT-TERM...AND SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SHEAR WEAKENING AND THIS COULD ALLOW HANNA TO RESTRENGTHEN. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW HOW MUCH STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT SHOWS HANNA BECOMING A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IN FACT...IF ONE CONSULTS THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INCLUDED IN THIS PACKAGE...IT CAN BE SEEN THAT THERE IS NEARLY AN EQUAL PROBABILITY OF HANNA BEING A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE AT DAY 3.

HANNA CONTINUES TO MEANDER BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF AN INITIAL MOTION IS 250/05. SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT HANNA SHOULD START MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LIFTS NORTHWARD AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN. HANNA SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD AT DAYS 2 TO 3 AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...HANNA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... GEORGIA...OR SOUTH CAROLINA IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT THE EXPECTED ANGLE OF APPROACH AND TRACK UNCERTAINTY MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE TO NARROW DOWN THE POTENTIAL IMPACT AREA. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND ALONG THE ENTIRE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.



...HANNA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Published on September 2, 2008 8:33 AM | Comments

Looks like Hanna has not been able to hold up against the shear and other atmospheric forces for the moment.

TROPICAL STORM HANNA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008 800 AM AST TUE SEP 02 2008

...HANNA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTING THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND HAITI...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST OR VERY NEAR GREAT INAGUA ISLAND AND ABOUT 385 MILES...615 KM...SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

HANNA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER...HANNA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...HANNA WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TODAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HANNA COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN CUBA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING MUDSLIDES AND FLASH FLOODING.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...21.2 N...73.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.



Surface wind field of Hurricane Hanna

Published on September 2, 2008 6:35 AM | Comments

In the image below you can see how Hanna has been meandering southward:

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Tropical Update, Monday September 2, 2008

Published on September 2, 2008 5:04 AM | Comments

Here is our update on the current named storms:

Gustav is winding down over land - it will probably be a TD when the NHC comes out with their morning update:

THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF GUSTAV HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE THIS EVENING AS THE STORM HAS MOVED INLAND OVER LOUISIANA. RECENT MAXIMUM DOPPLER VELOCITIES FROM THE LAKE CHARLES RADAR HAVE BEEN AROUND 65-70 KT AT ABOUT 4500 FT. THIS EQUATES TO ABOUT 50 KT AT THE SURFACE...THEREFORE GUSTAV IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. GUSTAV SHOULD CONTINUE WEAKENING AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT IT WILL BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON TUESDAY... AND A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

Hanna seems to have drifted to the south a bit - it must be soaking the Turks & Caicos islands. It is also closer to Cuba and Hispaniola which can not be good news for those islands that are already drenched. Max sustained winds are 70 miles an hour. The NHC still has this heading north west at some point soon. Only time will tell.

CONVENTIONAL AND PASSIVE MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE HANNA HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WHILE MAINTAINING A PRONOUNCED EYE FEATURE IN A 02/203Z AMSU OVERPASS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.0/65 KT AND T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS UNCHANGED AT 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

Ike is making a brisk move westward:

THE STRUCTURE OF IKE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING WITH SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE BANDING EMBEDDED IN A LARGE SURFACE CIRCULATION. THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 3.0 OR 45 KT...WHICH IS THE CURRENT INTENSITY.

AN AMSU PASS AT 0020Z PROVIDED SOME CONFIDENCE IN ESTIMATING A TRACK AT 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE MOVING BRISKLY OFF TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.

And... TD 10 (!) has formed way out in the open Atlantic:

ROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102008 0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2008

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 23.9W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

You can find all the latest NHC updates on these systems in the left hand navigation on the Hurricane blog home page.

In short - the Turks & Caicos, the Bahamas, Cuba, Hispaniola, and the US east coast from Florida to at least South Carolina need to be on alert for these next couple of storms - Hanna and Ike. TD 10 is a little too far out yet but the initial path looks to take it towards Ike's path if not a little more to the north. Again though, it is early and you never know. The NHC didn't have the jog to the south for Gustav that took it to the south coast of Jamaica, and they also had not imagine Hanna stalling around the T&C for a couple of days. The models do what they can - but every scenario is a new one. The only thing we know for sure is that the hurricane season is in full swing. Stay safe.




Hurricane Hanna threatens US southeast coast

Published on September 2, 2008 4:55 AM | Comments

From the AP:

PROVIDENCIALES, Turks and Caicos (AP) -- Hurricane Hanna stalled for hours over the southeastern Bahamas on Monday, lashing the islands with fierce winds and rain. Forecasters said it could threaten the southeast United States by midweek.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Ike emerged as a new threat in the open sea, as the National Hurricane Center in Miami monitored three weaker weather systems moving westward across the Atlantic.

Hanna, with maximum sustained winds near 80 mph (130 kmh), lingered for much of the day near Mayaguana and nearby islands in the southeast Bahamas.

There were no immediate reports of injuries or major damage, but emergency teams were standing by and would begin assessing the situation once the storm has cleared, said Stephen Russell, interim director of the Bahamas National Emergency Management Agency.

"I'm quite certain there is going to be damage, particularly in Mayaguana," he said.
Hanna also was bringing strong winds, heavy rain and pounding surf to nearby islands, including Inagua and Crooked Island, and Turks and Caicos Islands to the south. It was expected to hit the southeastern U.S. later in the week.

So it looks like Hanna basically was stalled yesterday and just got stronger and stronger as it sat there. Will be interesting to see just what direction this thing takes off into.



2 GRINGOS IN THE CARIBBEAN

Published on September 2, 2008 4:39 AM | Comments

Here is a blog, "2 GRINGOS IN THE CARIBBEAN", from a couple in the Turks & Caicos. They have a lot of photos up and have been blogging about Hanna. (Of course technically the T&C are not in the Caribbean - they are in the Atlantic Ocean... but I bet they know that now after living there for a couple of years - it is mistake a lot people make.)



Disney Cruise Line Special Message

Published on September 1, 2008 8:04 PM | Comments

As of Monday, September 1, 2008

The safety of our guests and crew is always our first priority at Disney Cruise Line and we are closely monitoring Hurricane Hanna through the National Weather Service.

At this time, we have not made any changes to the September 4th voyage of the Disney Wonder.

Should weather conditions change, our Captain can alter the ship's course or itinerary for the safety and well being of our guests.



Tropical Weather Notice from NCL

Published on September 1, 2008 8:01 PM | Comments

Miami - Aug 31, 2008

Norwegian Cruise Line is closely monitoring the path of Tropical Storm Hanna as the safety and security of our guests and crew is of the utmost importance.

Because of the current expected path of Tropical Storm Hanna, forecasted to pass near the islands of the Bahamas, NCL has altered the itinerary of Norwegian Spirit's six-day Bahamas & Florida sailing, departing New York on August 31, 2008. Norwegian Spirit will now call on the island of Bermuda for this sailing.

NCL has also altered the itinerary for Norwegian Sky's four-day Bahamas sailing, departing Miami on September 1, 2008. The ship will sail a Western Caribbean itinerary, with stops in Cozumel, Mexico and Key West, Fla.

NCL will update this information as necessary. We thank our guests for their cooperation and understanding.



Hurricanes Gustav and Hanna disrupt cruise plans in the Caribbean

Published on September 1, 2008 7:58 PM | Comments

Check out this article from the LA Times if you have any cruise plans:

If you plan to take a cruise anywhere in the Caribbean, Florida or the Gulf Coast this week, call your cruise line. Nearly all of them are changing itineraries, ports and departure dates. Expect major disruptions, not just because of Hurricane Gustav but also Hurricane Hanna right behind it.


Hanna Heading Toward Southeast Coast

Published on September 1, 2008 7:56 PM | Comments



Hanna report

Published on September 1, 2008 1:33 PM | Comments

A quick note from a friend in the Turks & Caicos:

We are doing OK. Highest tide I have ever seen but winds are manageable @ 40mph. Internet OUT at home but OK at work!


Hanna in the Bahamas

Published on September 1, 2008 12:25 PM | Comments

Here is a camera from Rocky Bay in the Bahamas:

rock-bay-hanna.jpg

The Rocky Bay webcam is located at White Sound, Elbow Cay, Abaco, The Bahamas (26.5N, 077W). The camera is facing roughly south.



Hanna in Provo

Published on September 1, 2008 11:48 AM | Comments

The webcam at the Provo Golf Club is still working - it looks dark, windy, and rainy at the moment - but you can tell by the palms that it isn't too bad:

provo-gustav.jpeg




Tropical Storms Hanna and Gustav August 29, 2008

Published on August 29, 2008 9:10 PM | Comments

From the NOAA:

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TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5

Published on August 29, 2008 7:33 AM | Comments

The 5:00 AM EST updates are out from the NHC. Hanna looks like a interesting storm. The models are not in agreement about the track or intensity at the moment:

TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008 500 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF HANNA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE AWAY...IT IS STILL PRODUCING SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. ONCE AGAIN THE CENTER HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS NOW CONFINED TO A CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS...BUT WITH THE CURRENT SHEARED PATTERN...THIS ESTIMATE COULD BE GENEROUS. THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO BE THE KEY PLAYER FOR BOTH THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF HANNA FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. IF THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY AS INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS...THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES A GOOD SOLUTION FROM GLOBAL MODELS AND CALLS FOR A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION FROM 24 TO 72 HOURS. THE FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL BUT DOES NOT SHOWS AS MUCH STRENGTHENING AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL AND HWRF.

HANNA HAS BEEN MOVING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BEYOND 3 DAYS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE CARVING A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND DEVELOPING A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE HANNA ON A SLOW SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK BEYOND THREE DAYS...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE BIT OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION BUT DOES NOT GO AS FAR SOUTH AS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE MODELS. IN FACT...THE GFS HAS JOINED THE REST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IN BRINGING THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD. I PREFER TO WAIT FOR MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE FORECAST SUCH A RARE BUT NOT UNIQUE TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.



Tropical Storm Hanna forms as Gustav soaks Jamaica

Published on August 28, 2008 5:55 PM | Comments

From McClatchy:

Tropical Storm Gustav closed in on Jamaica Thursday at near-hurricane strength while Tropical Storm Hanna formed in the Atlantic.

Hanna, the eighth named storm of the 2008 hurricane season, is spinning about 1,500 miles east-southeast of Miami with 40 mph winds. Forecasters said Hanna could grow into a hurricane by Labor Day but likely wouldn't threaten the U.S. coast until later next week, if at all.

Meanwhile, Gustav's winds increased to 70 mph from 45 mph overnight as it took a turn toward Jamaica. The center of Gustav was moving over the island's eastern shoreline at 2 p.m., about 40 miles east of Kingston.



Tropical Storm Hanna Open Thread

Published on August 28, 2008 1:22 PM | Comments

Use this thread to ask a question or leave a comment about Tropical Storm/Hurricane Hanna.



Tropical Storm Hanna 5 Day Cone

Published on August 28, 2008 1:14 PM | Comments



TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2

Published on August 28, 2008 11:06 AM | Comments

Hanna has been named - it is already forecast to become a hurricane:

TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS IMPROVED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS AND LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 35 KT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM HANNA. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT HANNA'S LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION INDICATING WESTERLY SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST IS IMPACTING THE SYSTEM. SINCE THE OCEAN IS PLENTY WARM...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PRIMARILY A FUNCTION OF HOW HANNA INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PLACING HANNA IN A LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH AMPLE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT WOULD FAVOR INTENSIFICATION SHOULD IT MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...THERE IS A FINE LINE BETWEEN A FAVORABLE AND UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT SPACING BETWEEN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND HANNA TO PROMOTE STRENGTHENING. BY DAY 5...UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM GUSTAV COULD IMPART NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER HANNA POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE INTENSITY.

HANNA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...OR 300/10...DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS HANNA MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...THE TRACK BECOMES MUCH LESS CERTAIN AS IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW HANNA WILL INTERACT WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW HANNA BEING LEFT BEHIND IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING. HOWEVER...THE TRADITIONALLY GOOD PERFORMING GFS FORECASTS HANNA TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THE FORMER OF THOSE SCENARIOS AND SHOWS A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK.