Caribbean-On-Line's Caribbean Hurricane Blog



Hanna may just blow apart

Published on September 2, 2008 6:07 PM | Comments

According to the latest from the NHC there is a slight chance Hanna may not get herself together again - not as a hurricane at least:

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING HANNA CONFIRMS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED. THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 850 MB WAS 66 KT WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 55 KT AT THE SURFACE. HANNA WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER STRONG SHEAR FOR ANOTHER 12-24 HOURS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. BY TOMORROW...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO CUT OFF JUST WEST OF HANNA AND THEN DROP SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IF THIS EVOLUTION MATERIALIZES...AND ASSUMING HANNA IS ABLE TO FIGHT OFF THE SHEAR...THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR HANNA TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A DAY OR SO...IN LINE WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY MODELS. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO IS COMPLEX...WHICH RESULTS IN LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.


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