September 12, 2008
Galveston Evacuating As Ike Nears
September 11, 2008
Galveston Boards Up As Ike Nears
Turks & Caicos is open for business!
We just got a press release from the T&C hotel and tourism board:
More here.
Hurricane Ike Heads Toward Texas, Strengthens in Gulf
From Bloomberg:
Turks Islanders Glad To Be Alive
From the Bahamas Journal:
Many of the seven thousand residents of Grand Turk recounted how they clung to anything and anyone as Ike battered and pummeled the island - ripping off roofs, tossing vehicles and trailers around, and bashing in the walls of many homes.
Wow - they really got hit hard.
Storm-ravaged Grand Turk closed to cruises for now
From the USA Today Cruise Log:
While the island's two-year-old cruise pier, designed to withstand a Category 5 hurricane, appears to have survived intact, just about every other structure on the island suffered damage that in some cases was catastrophic, and it's unlikely cruises will be able to return for some time.
Turks journalist Deandra Hamilton tells the Bahamas Journal this morning that the early reports that 80% to 95% of homes and buildings on the island suffered damage aren't accurate. In fact, it's worse, she says.
September 10, 2008
Photos from the Turks & Caicos II
Some more photos from the Turks & Caicos on these two sites:
http://www.myalbum.com/Album-IQNH3LUA-Photos-of%20-News.html
http://web.me.com/piratesofsaltcay/Site/ike1.html
Hurricane Ike Enters Gulf, Heads for Coast of Texas
From Bloomberg:
Ike's eye was 145 miles (233 kilometers) north of the western tip of Cuba and moving northwest at 8 miles per hour, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said just before 8 a.m. Miami time today. The system's sustained winds strengthened to 85 mph from 80 mph earlier today.
Ike may become a "major hurricane," the center said, a term it uses when wind speeds reach 111 mph. It is forecast to bypass New Orleans and the offshore Louisiana oil and natural gas fields and make landfall on the south-central Texas coast on Sept. 13.
There's "a significant chance that Ike will be the worst hurricane to hit Texas in 40 years," Jeff Masters, the director of meteorology at private forecaster Weather Underground Inc., said. "I am giving it a 50 percent chance of being a major hurricane at landfall."
More Hurricane Ike video
Audio is in Spanish:
Hurricane Ike update
Hurricane Ike is finally free of Cuba and is showing better organization. The NHC now forecasts Ike to perhaps regain category 3, or possible 4 status (or maybe just category 2). At this point Texas looks most likely for the next landfall of Ike. Oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico are shutting down in anticipation of this storm.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. AN AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER AND THERE ARE NUMEROUS OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS. IKE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND A PORTION OF THE WESTERMOST FLORIDA KEYS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY SAMPLING THE HURRICANE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 963 MB AND SFMR WINDS OF 73 KNOTS. THE MAXIMIUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SO FAR IS 81 KNOTS. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UP TO 75 KNOTS. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT IKE HAS BEGUN TO RECOVER FROM THE MANY HOURS OF INTERACTION WITH LAND. A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS IKE MOVES OVER A COUPLE OF WARM EDDIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOOP CURRENT AND MOVES WITHIN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES IKE A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE BASED ON A BLEND BETWEEN STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL HURRICANE MODELS. HOWEVER...THE INTENISITY FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AND IKE COULD END UP BEING A CATEGORY HIGHER OR LOWER THAN FORECAST.
RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD AND EXPAND WESTWARD FORCING IKE TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT TREE DAYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHWARD TURN WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY INLAND. I HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 24 TO 48 HOUR FORECAST TRACK SINCE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. THEREAFTER...THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT SO HIGH BECAUSE THE MODELS ARE MORE SPREAD OUT...BUT THEY ALL BRING THE HURRICANE ASHORE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
September 9, 2008
AP Photo, Ike in Cuba
A vehicle sits under rubble during heavy rains produced by hurricane Ike in Camaguey, Monday, Sept. 8, 2008. (AP / Javier Galeano)
Ike weakens to a category 1 - track still unsure
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT IKE HAS A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BUT THE INNER CORE OR EYE IS VERY SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED...ABOUT 6 TO 8 NM. THE EYE CAN BE SEEN FROM CUBAN AND KEY WEST RADARS. ALTHOUGH THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN AROUND 963-965 MB...THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS MEASURED SO FAR WERE ONLY 69 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KNOTS ASSUMING THAT THE PLANE HAS NOT SAMPLED THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION...BUT THIS VALUE APPEARS QUITE GENEROUS AT THIS TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...GIVEN THE WELL DEFINED STRUCTURE ON RADAR AND SATELLITE AND THE FACT THAT IKE HAS SEVERAL MORE HOURS OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS SOUTH OF CUBA...THE WINDS WINDS COULD INCREASE SOME NEAR THE CORE BEFORE MOVING OVER WESTERN CUBA. ONCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IKE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE...AND THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER SEVERAL AREAS OF HIGH HEAT CONTENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES IKE A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AND THIS VALUE IS IN BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS.
FIXES FROM CUBAN AND KEY WEST RADARS AS WILL AS PENETRATIONS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE SMALL EYE OF IKE IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS...VERY CLOSE TO THE ZAPATA PENINSULA ON THE SOUTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE SOUTH COAST OF HAVANA PROVINCE SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THEN...THE CENTER SHOULD CROSS WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY. UNFORTUNATELY... IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY NEAR TO WHERE HURRICANE GUSTAV CROSSED CUBA A WEEK OR SO AGO. THE STEERING PATTERN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE AND IKE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN AND SHOULD FORCE IKE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. IN FACT...UNANIMOUSLY...GUIDANCE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND ONCE AGAIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND STILL IS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
IT CANNOT BE OVEREMPHASIZED THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST POINTS SINCE THESE CAN BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL ERRORS. DO NOT FORGET THAT FEW DAYS AGO...THE GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY HAD IKE NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED THE DANGER TOWARD WESTERN CUBA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
Ike kills 4 in Cuba, takes aim at Mexico, US Gulf
From the AP:
Residents in Texas and northern Mexico braced for Ike's next wallop.
Winds howled and heavy rains fell across Havana, where streets were empty of cars and people Tuesday morning.
Cuba, which has carried out well-executed evacuations over the years, ordered hundreds of thousands of people -- more than a tenth of its 11 million people -- to seek safety with friends and relatives or at government shelters, state television reported.
"I feel safe here, above all for my granddaughters who are the most important thing in my life," said Marta Molas, who evacuated to a government shelter in Havana with seven relatives. "They take good care of us, we have television and food. ... When the electricity goes out we have a radio."
Ike Targets Havana As Category 1
September 8, 2008
Photos from the Turks & Caicos
Here is a page with links to photos from Provo on the 7th of September: http://www.wiv.tc/web-ike/index.htm
Ike slams Cuba, readies for another hit
From the AFP:
Nearly two million of Cuba's 11 million population were being evacuated and all 14 provinces were on maximum alert as the storm hammered its way across the southern end of the Caribbean island.
The storm drove seven-meter (23-foot) waves onto Cuba's eastern coastline as it came ashore late Sunday Monday, destroying a yet to-be-counted number of homes.
Cuban authorities said seven people had been injured but none killed in the storm.
"I'm 59, I have seen a lot of hurricanes, but I have never seen one that caused so much destruction," an unnamed resident of Camaguey told Cuban television by phone.
Hurricane Ike Brings 5-story Waves to Cuba
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
Ike has weakened over Cuba, but is forecast to emerge in the Gulf and gain strength again.
CUBAN RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF IKE CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL CUBA. THE EYE IS STILL VISIBLE BUT THE EYEWALL IS NOW ENTIRELY OVER LAND AND ITS STRUCTURE HAS DEGRADED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 90 KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN SHOWS LESS WEAKENING OVER LAND THAN INDICATED BY THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...IN THE EVENT THAT THE CENTER EMERGES OVER WATER SOONER THAN FORECAST. IF IKE FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK IT WILL BE OVER LAND FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND WOULD ALMOST SURELY BE WEAKER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF THAN SHOWN HERE. NEVERTHELESS...THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY CONDUCIVE TO RESTRENGTHENING WITH A VERY DIFLUENT LIGHT SHEAR UPPER WIND PATTERN AND WARM WATERS BELOW. THE MAJOR UNKNOWN IS HOW DISRUPTED IKE WILL BE WHEN IT EMERGES.
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. IKE'S TRAJECTORY IS EXPECTED TO BEND GRADUALLY TO THE RIGHT AS THE STORM NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN CALLING FOR A SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON DAYS 4-5. THE GFDL AND HWRF...WHICH USE THE GFS FOR BOUNDARY CONDITIONS...MAY BE PICKING UP ON THAT AND SHOW A BEND TO THE RIGHT AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...SUCH AS THE ECMWF...SHOW MUCH MORE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT THOSE RANGES AND HAVE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. EVEN THOUGH THE GFDL HAS PERFORMED VERY WELL WITH IKE SO FAR...I'VE CHOSEN NOT TO ADJUST THE TRACK EASTWARD GIVEN THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FIELDS IN THE GFS HAVE NO SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER MODELS. IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO KNOW WHAT PORTION OF THE GULF COAST WILL ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY IKE.
Hurricane Ike weakens over Cuba
From ABC News, image from AFP:
Ike pounded north-east Cuba with 165 kilometres per hour winds, torrential rains and massive waves, and it could slow further to a Category 1 storm on the five-step Saffir-Simpson intensity scale as it runs the 1,125 kilometre island, the US National Hurricane Centre said.
Cuba's state-run television showed angry waves slamming into the sea wall and surging as high as nearby five-story apartment buildings before flooding the streets of the city of Baracoa near the eastern tip of the communist-ruled island.
Hurricane Ike Smashes West Through Caribbean
From the NY Times:
In Haiti, where the fourth-largest city, Gonaïves, remained underwater from Hurricane Gustav, rain fell Sunday and at least 10 more people died of drowning, according to reports from news services. By early Monday the number of people reported killed in Haiti just from the effects of Hurricane Ike reached at least 61, according to news services. The total of those killed in Haiti in the recent storms was in the hundreds.
In Cuba, where relief efforts from Hurricane Gustav were under way in the west, the government evacuated vulnerable communities as the new hurricane bore down on the island with heavy winds and rain that could total 10 inches.
September 7, 2008
More Ike video from the Turks & Caicos
Hurricane Ike, Providenciales, Turks and Caicos
This is not looking good:
Ike update
Just a horrible time for the Turks & Caicos from Ike, parts of the Bahamas, Hispaniola (again) and now Cuba where at about 6:45 PM EST Ike looks to be nearing landfall. The only good news in any of this is that Ike has for the moment weakened slightly.
THE LATEST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INDICATES THAT IKE HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE. THE PLANE FOUND A PEAK SFMR OF 91 KT AND 107 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL. AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE SUGGESTED SURFACE WINDS AROUND 100 KT BUT THE DROP MAY NOT HAVE SAMPLED THE HIGHEST WINDS. WHILE THESE OBSERVATIONS WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY LOWER INTENSITY...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FELL TO 945 MB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED ONLY TO 105 KT. A RECENT SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES AND REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CONFIRM THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL HAS FORMED...BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL COMPLETE PRIOR TO IKE REACHING CUBA. ACCORDINGLY...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ONCE INLAND OVER CUBA...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BUT THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW LONG THE CENTER STAYS OVER LAND. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS IKE INLAND FOR APPROXIMATELY 24-36 HOURS SO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS SHOWN. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OR THE SOUTH COULD RESULT IN THE CENTER OF IKE MOVING BACK OVER WATER SOONER. IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 2 DAYS WHERE THE WATERS ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW. IKE'S POTENTIAL FOR RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL DEPEND ON ITS STRUCTURE ONCE IT EMERGES FROM CUBA.
IKE HAS BEEN WOBBLING WESTWARD DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/12. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH WEAKENS. IN 2-3 DAYS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES CAUSING ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND A REDUCTION IN IKE'S FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW SHOW THE TROUGH BYPASSING IKE TO THE NORTH WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. THIS PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT LEFT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT DAYS 4 AND 5. TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHWARD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT. HOWEVER...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS TOO MUCH ON SMALL CHANGES IN THE TRACK...AND IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO ANTICIPATE WHICH AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM.
The Turks & Caicos seems to have got hit pretty bad - anyone with travel plans there needs to be in contact with wherever it is they were planning to stay. We don't know from news reports yet and I hate to speculate but it is hard to say after a storm like this if things can back to normal in days, weeks, or months. We will just have to wait and see.
Hurricane Ike: Royal Navy heads for Turks and Caicos Islands with aid
From the Times UK:
Killer Ike blasts Bahamas, aims at Cuba
From the AP:
Slamming into the southern Bahamas, Ike bore down on Cuba on a path that could hit Havana head-on, and hundreds of thousands evacuated to shelters or higher ground. To the north, residents of the Florida Keys fled up a narrow highway, fearful that the "extremely dangerous" hurricane could hit them Tuesday.
At least 48 people died as Ike's winds and rain swept Haiti, and a Dominican man was crushed by a falling tree. It was too early to know of deaths on other islands where the most powerful winds were still blowing.
Raw Video: Ike Pounds Turks and Caicos
Ike bears down on Haiti
Ike hits Turks and Caicos
Ike blasts Turks and Caicos as Category 4 storm
From the AP:
Turks and Caicos premier Michael Misick said Ike damaged more than 80 percent of the homes on Grand Turk and South Caicos islands. Hundreds lost their roofs and all the fishermen lost boats as the hurricane made a near-direct hit.
Hundreds took refuge in shelters. Others have been cowering in closets and under stairwells and "just holding on for life. They got hit really, really bad," Misick said Sunday morning. "A lot of people have lost their house, and we will have to see what we can do to accommodate them."
At 8 a.m. EDT, Ike's eye was just east of Great Inagua Island in the southeastern Bahamas, with maximum sustained winds of 135 mph (215 kph). It was moving west-southwest at 14 mph (24 kph) and was expected to remain a major hurricane as it approaches eastern Cuba.
"It's looking terrible," said reserve police officer Henry Nixon from inside a shelter on the Bahamas' Great Inagua Island, where about 85 people huddled around a radio. "All we can do is hunker down and pray."
'Extremely dangerous' Ike pounds Turks and Caicos
From CNN:
The outer bands of the storm brought fierce, palm-bending winds and a scattering of rain to the British crown colony that had already been pummeled this week for four days by Tropical Storm Hanna.
"People are losing roofs by the second," said Audley Astwood, a reporter at a radio station in Grand Turk said. "Close to 50 percent of the homes on Grand Turk have been destroyed or lost roofs."
In fact, Astwood said his own home lost its roof and his family was huddled in a bathroom.
Power was out over the whole island of Grand Turk, he said.
'Dangerous' Ike Aims for Turks and Caicos
From before Ike has hit, obviously:
Ike over the Turks & Caicos
This NHC update sounds very ominous:
September 6, 2008
Ike threatens battered Haiti
Tourists, residents scramble to flee Caribbean as Ike strengthens
From CNN:
At 5 p.m. ET Saturday, Ike's center was 90 miles east of Grand Turk Island, moving west-southwest at 15 mph.
The British government arranged extra flights to move visitors to Turks and Caicos, a British crown colony, out of harm's way before the Providenciales airport was forced to close about noon.
Many flee Turks and Caicos as 'Ike' approaches
Ike does seem like the type of storm where you should evacuate - the T&C are low lying islands - a direct hit from a hurricane could just about swamp most of the islands I would think. I hope everyone can get out. If you have any travel planned there, it is probably going to be out off by the hotel or resort or whatever if this thing hits like it looks like it is going. I would imagine just about everything at ground level will be flooded. The woman quoted in the article says "I've been here 13 years and Hanna was the strongest thing we've had," Dierin Longmire said as she checked in at the airport. "It shook me up." - well, Ike it looking to be lot worse unfortunately:
Turks and Caicos and the southern Bahamas appeared to be first in line to take a hit from Ike, and many people decided they would be better off elsewhere.
"I don't remember ever seeing a mass exodus like this," said Tracy Paradis, a longtime resident of Providenciales who was heading to Seattle with her 19-month-old twins to wait out the storm.
September 5, 2008
Hanna, Ike update
It looks like Hanna is now an east coast issue - but Ike could come straight through the Turks and Caicos, The Bahamas, and brush by Cuba before turning north towards Florida's west coast. We will keep a close eye on Ike over the weekend. The next update from the NHC is due out soon and we will post that also (you can find the latest in the left hand navigation). For now, here are some news links:
• Fierce Hurricane Ike targets Gulf
• Fierce Hurricane Ike targets Miami, Hanna nears
As usual, there is more news for the US than for the islands which are in the direct path of the storm -
Here are the relevant links to the cruise lines for their updates:
• Carnival
Josephine thankfully looks like it is meandering in the open Atlantic.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
The models are not all in agreement about the strength and track, but Ike is a hurricane and will most likely come through the Bahamas as a hurricane:
THE EYE OF IKE HAS LOST A LITTLE OF ITS DEFINITION...AND CLOUD TOPS OF THE EYEWALL HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN SLIGHTLY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 110 KT. MICROWAVE IMAGERY JUST RECEIVED FROM THE AMSR-E DOES NOT REVEAL ANY SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE...NOR DOES IT DEPICT CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...SO RAPID WEAKENING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ABOUT TO OCCUR. THAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL...AND GIVEN THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME WEAKENING IN THE SHORT TERM. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO LESSEN BEYOND 24 HOURS...AS IKE REMAINS OVER WATERS NEAR 29 CELSIUS...SO RESTRENGTHENING IS THEN FORECAST. THE HWRF FORECASTS IKE TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT DAYS 3-5...BUT THE GFDL DOES NOT SINCE ITS TRACK GOES OVER CUBA. MEANWHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM FORECAST A WEAKER HURRICANE...ALTHOUGH THE LGEM PREDICTION APPEARS MORE REALISTIC SINCE IT DOES A BETTER JOB OF TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE EVENTUAL LESSENING OF THE SHEAR. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS OVER WATER THROUGH 96 HOURS...A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND LGEM SEEMS TO BE REASONABLE...AND IKE IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LONGER RANGES. THE ONLY REASON FOR THE WEAKENING AT THE END IS THAT THE FIVE-DAY POINT IS OVER LAND...WHICH IS NOT A CERTAINTY.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE HAS SETTLED IN DIRECTLY NORTH OF IKE...AS THE HIGH-LATITUDE TROUGH DEPARTS ATLANTIC CANADA...AND THE HURRICANE IS NOW HEADED DUE WESTWARD OR 270/13. NEXT TO DEPART THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SCENE WILL BE HANNA...AND ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS SAY THAT IN ITS PLACE THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD TO FLORIDA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. A KEY UNKNOWN FOR THE 3-5 DAY FORECAST IS HOW STRONG THAT RIDGE WILL BE AND HOW LONG IT WILL REMAIN INTACT. IN GENERAL DURING THE LAST DAY OR TWO THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD THE RIDGE STAYING IN PLACE LONGER...RESULTING IN TRACKS MAINTAINING THE GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION LONGER AND DELAYING ANY POTENTIAL TURN TO THE NORTH. THAT TREND HAS CONTINUED SOMEWHAT ON THIS CYCLE...BUT THE CONSENSUS HAS ONLY SHIFTED WEST SLIGHTLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 HOURS...IS JUST NUDGED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS BEYOND THAT TIME...AND GIVES THE MOST WEIGHT TO THE GFS AND HWRF. IT CANNOT BE SAID ENOUGH THAT FIVE-DAY TRACK FORECASTS CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS...AND COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT THE MODEL SPREAD IS STILL NOTABLE BEYOND 72 HOURS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.
Hanna Eyes Coast, Ike Possibly Following
September 4, 2008
Hanna, Ike and Josephine: Triple Storm Threat
This isn't that old, but the NHC seems to think that Hanna will not become a hurricane again. Also - Ike will probably weaken a bit, and they describe it here as a "monster" storm when in fact at this point the footprint of Ike is rather small for a category 4 storm. Sort of distressing that they have to hype the news like this and can't just report the facts. And no mention in this report of the number of dead in Haiti - just the phrase "wreaked havoc":
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF IKE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. IKE IS MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED EYE...THOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOME IN THE EYEWALL RECENTLY. IT IS INTERESTING THAT WHILE IKE STARTED OUT AS A LARGE SYSTEM...THE CLOUD CANOPY HAS NOTICEABLY SHRUNK TODAY WITH FEW OUTER BANDS. THERE HAS BEEN ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY TO 115 KT. STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL RESPONDS TO THE SHEAR BY WEAKENING THIS SYSTEM TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...THOUGH THE GFDL/HWRF ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER. IN A COUPLE DAYS...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND...COMBINED WITH RATHER WARM WATER WATERS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...SHOULD RESULT IN RESTRENGTHENING. THE HURRICANE'S EXACT TRACK IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT COULD BE IMPACTED BY COOLER WATERS UPWELLED BY HANNA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS A LITTLE LOWER FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS. IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12...SLOWER THAN BEFORE AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT. RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE... CAUSING A WEST...AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION OF IKE BY LATE TOMORROW. THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING BETWEEN IKE AND HANNA WILL BE CRITICAL TO WHEN AN EVENTUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR IN THE LONG-RANGE. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE WESTWARD SHIFT IN ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY...WITH THE GFDL/ECMWF EVEN TAKING THE SYSTEM AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS CUBA. THE OTHER MODELS ARE PRETTY CLUSTERED ON A TRACK NEAR OR THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE HWRF MODEL.
ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST POSITIONS BECAUSE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THOSE TIMES.
Ike is now a major hurricane
...IKE EVEN STRONGER AS IT CONTINUES WEST-N