Caribbean-On-Line's Caribbean Hurricane Blog



TD 9 forms in the Atlantic

Published on September 1, 2008 11:24 AM | Comments

Well - I hope if anyone was traveling next week, especially to the Bahamas, they took my trip insurance post seriously. The NHC has just proclaimed TD 9, which will probably end up being Ike at some point (the track already shows it becoming a hurricane but that is a ways off).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED PLENTLY OF CONVECTION..NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS AND A WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AT THIS TIME BUT I WOULD RATHER WAIT TO SEE IF THE DEEP CONVECTION HOLDS FOR WHILE TO CALL IT A TROPICAL STORM...PROBABLY IN THE NEXT ADVISORY. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THE WARM OCEAN ALONG ITS PATH AND THE LOW SHEAR...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.

SINCE THE DEPRESSION HAS JUST FORMED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A LITTLE BIT UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 275 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS BUILDING AND EXPANDING WESTWARD ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREFATER...AS THE HIGH BUILDS FARTHER WESTWARD...THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SINCE THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS RATHER TIGHT...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH.



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