Caribbean-On-Line's Caribbean Hurricane Blog



TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4

Published on October 14, 2008 5:13 AM | Comments

So TD 15 is sitting in the middle of the Caribbean basin and forecast to take an unusual track and head over PR as a tropical storm (and very close to the Virgin Islands) in the next couple of days. We will be keeping a close eye on this one - slow moving storms of this size, while not packing hurricane force winds, can be very devastating to the area with the amount of rain they are capable of dropping.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008 500 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

ALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED THE AREA. THEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...INDICATIVE OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NONETHELESS THE CONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THIS CONSENSUS.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD...OR 130/2. OBVIOUSLY THE STEERING WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE VERY WEAK AT THIS TIME. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH DEEPENING TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND A RIDGE BUILDING TO ITS EAST. THESE DEVELOPMENTS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN EASTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS ALSO QUITE CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

RADAR IMAGES FROM CURACAO SHOW RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION PASSING OVER THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THESE ISLANDS TODAY.



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