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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN LOCAL STATEMENT

Published on October 14, 2008 9:17 AM | Comments

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 542 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND FOR ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 542 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND FOR ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...

.AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...OR ABOUT 270 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PONCE...OR ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST CROIX...OR ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST THOMAS.

THE DEPRESSION WAS DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH. A TURN TO THE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-150945- /O.CON.TJSJ.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR- NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST- WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES- ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX- 542 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT... ...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

DEPRESSION LOCATION. FORECAST TRACK.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN... PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN...WILL LIFT NORTHWARDS AND BRING OCCASIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ALL OF PUERTO RICO...THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING. RESIDENTS...VISITORS AND MOTORISTS SHOULD THEREFORE EXPECT AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND 30 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY TURN TOWARDS THE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST...AND MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE REST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL STORM EARLY THURSDAY. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RAPID RIVER RISES AND FLASH FLOODING...ALONG WITH MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOW.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IT IS RECOMMENDED YOU PREPARE YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS AND REVIEW YOUR TROPICAL STORM PLAN.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

ITS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT LOCATIONS OF ANY SPECIFIC STORM TIDES TO BE CAUSED BY THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL MAY OCCUR MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...AND ALONG THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS OF CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE EXPECTED TIMES OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES THROUGHOUT THE LOCAL AREA...

IN PLAYA DE PONCE... 1.0 FEET AT 9:47 AM AST WEDNESDAY 1.1 FEET AT 10:48 AM AST THURSDAY

IN LIME TREE BAY SAINT CROIX... 1.0 FEET AT 10:13 AM AST WEDNESDAY 1.0 FEET AT 11:18 AM AST THURSDAY

IN CHARLOTTE AMALIE SAINT THOMAS... 1.1 FEET AT 9:35 AM AST WEDNESDAY 1.2 FEET AT 10:32 AM AST THURSDAY

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BY WEDNESDAY...AND WILL THEN CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ALL OF PUERTO RICO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EXPOSED AREAS.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE THAT PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH.

...INLAND FLOODING...

BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER FRINGES OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE FREQUENT BANDS THEN SPREADING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 930 AM AST THIS TUESDAY MORNING.



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