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Tropical Storm Dolly

HURRICANE DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 11

Published on July 22, 2008 11:12 PM | Comments

HURRICANE DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 1000 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...DOLLY A LITTLE STRONGER...MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.0 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES... 175 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A FURTHER REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...25.1 N...96.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 AM CDT.



TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 9

Published on July 22, 2008 11:27 AM | Comments

Dolly is approaching hurricane strength:

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 1000 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...DOLLY NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO PORT O'CONNOR HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES...370 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE ENXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CORE OF DOLLY NEAR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...24.0 N...94.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT.



TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 7

Published on July 21, 2008 11:30 PM | Comments

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 1000 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM BROWNSVILLE TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 10 PM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 10 PM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES.

AT 10 PM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.8 WEST OR ABOUT 320 MILES...515 KM...EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 435 MILES...695 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4-6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...23.1 N...92.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 AM CDT.



TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 3

Published on July 20, 2008 11:28 PM | Comments

We added some links to images of the gulf to help you follow Dolly. This storm is about to exit the Caribbean in the next day or two, but is currently forecast to become a hurricane. Should be an interesting week for oil prices.

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

...DOLLY APPROACHES THE YUCATAN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES...290 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 95 MILES...150 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. THE CENTER OF DOLLY IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER DOLLY ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND IN WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...19.6 N...85.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT.



Tropical Storm DOLLY

Published on July 20, 2008 6:21 PM | Comments

Dolly has finally turned into a named storm and is heading towards the Yucatan Peninsula:

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 500 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

...DOLLY HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES...350 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 165 MILES...265 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TONIGHT...EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF ON TUESDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEFORE DOLLY REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTER DOLLY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TONIGHT.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF UP TO 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...18.9 N...85.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT.