Caribbean Hurricanes: Tropical Storm Fay

August 21, 2008

Fay still kicking around

Fay is just off the Florida coast and nearly stationary according to the NHC at 5:00 AM EST. The slow movement has intensified flood risk for the Florida communities it will pass through.

There is a disorganized band of weather out in the Atlantic that at the moment does not seem to pose much of a threat.

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August 19, 2008

Fay is now Florida's problem

Unfortunately for Floridians this storm now looks like it will cross the state from west to east. I guess the only good news is that it is only a tropical storm and never achieved hurricane status (even though it did unfortunately bring death and destruction to Hispaniola and Cuba). The forecast for this to become a hurricane, after crossing Cuba, always seemed a stretch to me. It isn't too often that a storm can cross so much land and maintain strength - but I guess the meteorologists at the NHC have to rely on their models. Now that Fay is totally out of the Caribbean region, this will probably be our last post on this storm. We are keeping an eye on the other system that is in the open Atlantic now and will follow up on that if anything develops.

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August 18, 2008

Fay churns on, another area of concern pops up.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM FAY...CENTERED ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

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Tropical Storm Fay update

Tropical Storm Fay is a somewhat weak and scattered mess at the moment, but still forecast to come off the north coast of Cuba at some point and become a hurricane. The track of this storm could definitely change so those in the area should be paying attention:

AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS NEAR 0000 UTC SHOWED LITTLE MOTION SINCE THE EARLIER FIXES. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CUBAN RADAR DATA IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS ILL-DEFINED AT THE MOMENT...AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION IS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED FROM EAST TO WEST. STRONGEST CONVECTION IS OCCURRING JUST TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 305/9. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM EARLIER TODAY. FAY IS LIKELY TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. NOAA G-IV JET DATA SHOW MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH. SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL MODEL HAVE SHIFTED...ONCE AGAIN...TO THE EAST. THERE HAVE OBVIOUSLY BEEN SOME RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY PROBLEMS WITH OUR TRACK GUIDANCE...BUT THIS IS OFTEN THE CASE FOR WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE MODEL INITIAL CONDITIONS. I HAVE NOT MADE MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH REMAINS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

Fay is already responsible for at least 8 deaths:

HAVANA (AFP) -- Tropical storm Fay dumped heavy rains on the Dominican Republic and Haiti, leaving eight people dead and six missing, as US weather experts forecast the system will strengthen to hurricane force as it approaches Cuba.

One person was killed and three were missing in the Dominican Republic due to the heavy rains Sunday, while thousands of people were evacuated to avoid the storm, local media reported.

In Haiti, the heavy rains killed seven people and left another three missing, civil protection officials told AFP.

Link: Tropical Storm Fay update | Comments (0)

August 17, 2008

Fay churns toward Cuban coast, Florida

Fay is on track to cross over Cuba as a tropical storm, and eventually strengthen. Here is a report from Reuters:

HAVANA, Aug 17 (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Fay churned along Cuba's southeastern coast on Sunday with 50 mile per hour (80 km per hour) winds and was expected to hit land overnight before heading toward Florida as a likely hurricane.

The storm was just off Cuba's lightly populated Cabo Cruz, which juts out into the Caribbean Sea, and moving northwest at 13 miles per hour (20 km per hour), the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Florida said.

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August 16, 2008

Fay Soaks Haiti Could Hit U.S. As a Hurricane

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Tropical Storm Fay leaves 4 dead in Haiti, DR

Sad news from the DR and Haiti - from the AP:

PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti--Flooding from Tropical Storm Fay killed four people in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and authorities warned Saturday that the storm could reach hurricane strength as it barreled toward Cuba.

Florida's Gov. Charlie Crist declared a state of emergency and said Fay threatened the state with a "major disaster." Forecasters said Fay could bring hurricane-force winds to the Florida Keys as soon as Monday.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said that on Saturday afternoon the storm was located about 60 miles (100 kilometers) south of Guantanamo, Cuba. It was heading west at about 16 mph (26 kph), and maximum sustained winds had decreased slightly to 40 mph (65 kph).

A man died Saturday in Haiti while trying to cross a river in Leogane, south of Port-au-Prince, said Marie Alta Jean-Baptiste, head of Haiti's civil protection department. No further information was immediately available.

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TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A

TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 200 AM AST SAT AUG 16 2008

...FAY CONTINUING WESTWARD OVER HISPANIOLA...

AT 200 AM AST...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS BEEN EXTENDED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND FOR THE SOUTH COAST EAST OF SAN PEDRO DE MACORIS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM...EAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 260 MILES...415 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL MOVE ACROSS HAITI THIS MORNING...AND WILL BE MOVING NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FAY COULD WEAKEN SOME WHILE MOVING OVER HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND ON SUNDAY AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...18.7 N...71.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST.

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August 15, 2008

Tropical Storm Fay Open Thread

Use this post to ask a question or leave a comment about Tropical Storm Fay.

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Tropical Storm Fay 5 Day Cone

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TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 1

Tropical Storm Fay is out there - right now the DR, Haiti, and Cuba need to be concerned:

TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 500 PM AST FRI AUG 15 2008

...TROPICAL STORM FAY FORMS...SIXTH ATLANTIC STORM OF THE SEASON...

REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE MONA PASSAGE BECAME A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVED INTO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND FOR THE SOUTH COAST EAST OF SAN PEDRO DE MACORIS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM GONAIVES NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...EAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 395 MILES...635 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND PASS NEAR OR OVER EASTERN CUBA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY OVER WATER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...18.5 N...69.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST.

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