Caribbean-On-Line's Caribbean Hurricane Blog



Tropical Storm Fay update

Published on August 18, 2008 3:19 AM | Comments

Tropical Storm Fay is a somewhat weak and scattered mess at the moment, but still forecast to come off the north coast of Cuba at some point and become a hurricane. The track of this storm could definitely change so those in the area should be paying attention:

AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS NEAR 0000 UTC SHOWED LITTLE MOTION SINCE THE EARLIER FIXES. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CUBAN RADAR DATA IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS ILL-DEFINED AT THE MOMENT...AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION IS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED FROM EAST TO WEST. STRONGEST CONVECTION IS OCCURRING JUST TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 305/9. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM EARLIER TODAY. FAY IS LIKELY TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. NOAA G-IV JET DATA SHOW MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH. SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL MODEL HAVE SHIFTED...ONCE AGAIN...TO THE EAST. THERE HAVE OBVIOUSLY BEEN SOME RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY PROBLEMS WITH OUR TRACK GUIDANCE...BUT THIS IS OFTEN THE CASE FOR WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE MODEL INITIAL CONDITIONS. I HAVE NOT MADE MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH REMAINS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

Fay is already responsible for at least 8 deaths:

HAVANA (AFP) -- Tropical storm Fay dumped heavy rains on the Dominican Republic and Haiti, leaving eight people dead and six missing, as US weather experts forecast the system will strengthen to hurricane force as it approaches Cuba.

One person was killed and three were missing in the Dominican Republic due to the heavy rains Sunday, while thousands of people were evacuated to avoid the storm, local media reported.

In Haiti, the heavy rains killed seven people and left another three missing, civil protection officials told AFP.



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