Caribbean-On-Line

Share:  


Search for
 

Travel Insurance

Get a FREE no obligation quote!





col hurricane blog

AddThis Feed Button

email notifications

Enter your email address to add or remove yourself from our notification list:

 
 

Tropical Storm Ike entries

caribbean-on-line

Caribbean Travel & Life
FREE ISSUE!
Caribbean Travel & Life Magazine

West Indies Maps
Tourist Islands of
the West Indies
$12.95

hurricane blog archives

Travel Blogs - Blog Top Sites

Blog Flux Directory

caribbean-on-line   hurricane season 2008

Tropical Storm Ike

September 3, 2008

Ike is a hurricane

This is not looking like good news for the Turks & Caicos and Bahamas at the moment. Ike is now a hurricane, and the already double drenched T&C Islands seem to be pretty close to the latest projected path.

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 500 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008

AS ANTICIPATED...IKE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AND ALL SATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATES SAY IT HAS BECOME A HURRICANE. SINCE THE 1800 UTC DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KT...AN EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN LATE-DAY VISIBLE IMAGERY...SO THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT. THE CYCLONE IS INTENSIFYING WITHIN A COCOON OF NEARLY ZERO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...IN BETWEEN THE DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLIES ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE EASTERN TROUGH ARE STARTING TO JUST SLIGHTLY RESTRICT IKE'S OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO INCREASE FROM THE EAST...BUT PROBABLY NOT QUICKLY ENOUGH TO HALT IKE'S INTENSIFICATION TREND IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS AN INTERMEDIATE INTENSITY PEAK AT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE SHEAR...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT WEAKENING UNTIL THE SHEAR ABATES AFTER IKE GETS FARTHER WEST. BY THAT TIME...IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...OCEAN AND ATMOSPHERIC FACTORS BECOME QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS GFDL AND HWRF...FORECAST A MAJOR HURRICANE BY DAYS 4 AND 5...WHICH IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE RATHER UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER...AND THE INTENSITY PROBABILITY TABLE INCLUDED IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE INDICATES THAT THERE IS ROUGHLY A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IKE WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE FOUR AND FIVE DAYS FROM NOW. IF IKE IS WEAKER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT DAYS 3-5...THEN THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS SHIPS AND LGEM WILL TURN OUT TO BE MORE ACCURATE.

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290/16. AS THE LARGE AND DEEP-LAYER LOW CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL PUSH IKE GENERALLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UNDULATIONS IN THE TRACK ARE LIKELY THOUGH. IKE SHOULD CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE FORMS...AFTER WHICH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY ROUND THAT RIDGE. THE BIG QUESTION AT LONGER RANGES IS IF AND WHEN IKE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THAT RIDGE...WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER IKE DIRECTLY AFFECTS ANY LAND AREAS. THE MODELS DO NOT PROVIDE AN UNANIMOUS ANSWER...WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. ALL OF THE MODELS DO SHOW THE BEGINNINGS OF A MOTION NORTH OF DUE WEST BY DAY 5...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THIS IS THE START OF RECURVATURE...OR IF ENOUGH RIDGING WILL REMAIN BEYOND DAY 5 TO KEEP IKE MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD.

Link: Ike is a hurricane | Comments (0)

AddThis Social Bookmark Button

September 2, 2008

TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6

Ike described as "chugging away":

TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

AFTER LOOKING CONVECTIVELY ASYMMETRIC THIS MORNING...IKE HAS WRAPPED A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION MOST OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER EXCEPT FOR SMALL BREAK OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. CONSEQUENTLY... DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RISEN TO 3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE.

IKE CONTINUES TO CHUG ALONG WITHIN THE TRADES AT 280/15. THE MID-LEVEL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED NORTH-NORTHEAST OF IKE...STEERING IT WESTWARD...IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC AND RESULT IN VERY LITTLE POLEWARD MOTION IN THE COMING DAYS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CLUSTERED THROUGH DAY 5...THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE FROM THIS MORNING IS THE TRACK OF THE UKMET... WHICH CURVES IKE TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 65W IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKER WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISREGARDS THE UKMET AND FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS...SHOWING A SLIGHT SOUTH-OF-DUE-WEST MOTION IN ABOUT 48-72 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE EXACT STEERING REGIME AT DAY 5 REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RECONCILES THIS BY SHOWING A MORE OR LESS WESTWARD TRACK WITHIN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY AGREEABLE IN THE SHORT-TERM... BRINGING IKE TO A HURRICANE WITHIN ABOUT 12 HOURS. BEYOND THAT...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE A BIT RESERVED AND SHOW PEAK INTENSITIES OF 70-80 KT BEFORE MODEST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SETS IN BY 48 HOURS. THE HWRF MODEL IS WELL ABOVE ALL THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND IN GENERAL ITS SOLUTION IS NOT COUNTED AT THIS TIME. STILL...THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE REASON THAT INTENSIFICATION SHOULD NOT OCCUR SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS AND LGEM...BUT IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND NEAR THE GFDL.

Link: TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 | Comments (0)

AddThis Social Bookmark Button

Tropical Update, Monday September 2, 2008

Here is our update on the current named storms:

Gustav is winding down over land - it will probably be a TD when the NHC comes out with their morning update:

THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF GUSTAV HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE THIS EVENING AS THE STORM HAS MOVED INLAND OVER LOUISIANA. RECENT MAXIMUM DOPPLER VELOCITIES FROM THE LAKE CHARLES RADAR HAVE BEEN AROUND 65-70 KT AT ABOUT 4500 FT. THIS EQUATES TO ABOUT 50 KT AT THE SURFACE...THEREFORE GUSTAV IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. GUSTAV SHOULD CONTINUE WEAKENING AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT IT WILL BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON TUESDAY... AND A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

Hanna seems to have drifted to the south a bit - it must be soaking the Turks & Caicos islands. It is also closer to Cuba and Hispaniola which can not be good news for those islands that are already drenched. Max sustained winds are 70 miles an hour. The NHC still has this heading north west at some point soon. Only time will tell.

CONVENTIONAL AND PASSIVE MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE HANNA HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WHILE MAINTAINING A PRONOUNCED EYE FEATURE IN A 02/203Z AMSU OVERPASS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.0/65 KT AND T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS UNCHANGED AT 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

Ike is making a brisk move westward:

THE STRUCTURE OF IKE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING WITH SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE BANDING EMBEDDED IN A LARGE SURFACE CIRCULATION. THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 3.0 OR 45 KT...WHICH IS THE CURRENT INTENSITY.

AN AMSU PASS AT 0020Z PROVIDED SOME CONFIDENCE IN ESTIMATING A TRACK AT 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE MOVING BRISKLY OFF TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.

And... TD 10 (!) has formed way out in the open Atlantic:

ROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102008 0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2008

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 23.9W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

You can find all the latest NHC updates on these systems in the left hand navigation on the Hurricane blog home page.

In short - the Turks & Caicos, the Bahamas, Cuba, Hispaniola, and the US east coast from Florida to at least South Carolina need to be on alert for these next couple of storms - Hanna and Ike. TD 10 is a little too far out yet but the initial path looks to take it towards Ike's path if not a little more to the north. Again though, it is early and you never know. The NHC didn't have the jog to the south for Gustav that took it to the south coast of Jamaica, and they also had not imagine Hanna stalling around the T&C for a couple of days. The models do what they can - but every scenario is a new one. The only thing we know for sure is that the hurricane season is in full swing. Stay safe.


Link: Tropical Update, Monday September 2, 2008 | Comments (0)

AddThis Social Bookmark Button

September 1, 2008

Tropical Storm Ike forms, seen growing into hurricane

From Reuters:

MIAMI (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Ike, the ninth of a busy Atlantic hurricane season, formed on Monday midway between Africa and the Caribbean and was expected to grow rapidly into a hurricane that could threaten the United States or the Caribbean.

Ike was churning across the Atlantic on the heels of Hurricane Gustav, which pounded New Orleans on Monday as it came ashore on the U.S. Gulf Coast, and Hurricane Hanna, which strengthened as it neared the south-eastern Bahamas islands.

The peak of the six-month Atlantic hurricane season usually occurs around September 10, and an average season spawns 10 tropical storms. Six of those strengthen into hurricanes.

Ike's formation, and the possibility of another tropical depression developing in its wake in the coming days, means the storm activity this year is well above normal, bad news for U.S. oil and natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico and for the millions living in the Caribbean and on U.S. coasts.

Link: Tropical Storm Ike forms, seen growing into hurricane | Comments (0)

AddThis Social Bookmark Button

Tropical Storm Ike open thread

Tropical Storm Ike formed on September 1, 2008. Use this post to ask questions or leave comments about Ike.

Link: Tropical Storm Ike open thread | Comments (0)

AddThis Social Bookmark Button

Tropical Storm IKE 5 Day Cone

Link: Tropical Storm IKE 5 Day Cone | Comments (0)

AddThis Social Bookmark Button

TD 9 forms in the Atlantic

Well - I hope if anyone was traveling next week, especially to the Bahamas, they took my trip insurance post seriously. The NHC has just proclaimed TD 9, which will probably end up being Ike at some point (the track already shows it becoming a hurricane but that is a ways off).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED PLENTLY OF CONVECTION..NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS AND A WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AT THIS TIME BUT I WOULD RATHER WAIT TO SEE IF THE DEEP CONVECTION HOLDS FOR WHILE TO CALL IT A TROPICAL STORM...PROBABLY IN THE NEXT ADVISORY. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THE WARM OCEAN ALONG ITS PATH AND THE LOW SHEAR...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.

SINCE THE DEPRESSION HAS JUST FORMED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A LITTLE BIT UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 275 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS BUILDING AND EXPANDING WESTWARD ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREFATER...AS THE HIGH BUILDS FARTHER WESTWARD...THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SINCE THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS RATHER TIGHT...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH.



Search for

About Us | Advertising | FAQ | Feedback | Privacy Policy | © 1995 - 2016 Caribbean-On-Line