October 15, 2008
Hurricane Omar taking aim at Caribbean islands
From the AP:
Hurricane warnings have been issued for the U.S. Virgin islands, Puerto Rico's Vieques and Culebra islands and other islands in the region.
Officials in Puerto Rico, already soaked from several days of rain, are warning residents to prepare for a lot more.
Omar's maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 kph) early Wednesday. But the National Hurricane Center in Miami says the hurricane is expected to strengthen.
October 14, 2008
Storm batters Aruba, heads for US islands
From the AP:
Officials in Puerto Rico warned residents of the U.S. Caribbean territory, already soaked from several days of rain, to prepare for lots more. Medical authorities appealed for blood donations for possible casualties of the storm.
Omar's expected path could take it over Puerto Rico overnight Wednesday, or it could drift further east over the nearby U.S. and British Virgin Islands.
Omar has rapidly intensified
This is not looking good for the Virgin Islands - the storm is now much more powerful than was forecast just this morning:
SATELLITE...RADAR...AND AIR FORCE RECON DATA INDICATE THAT OMAR HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OBSERVED HAVE ONLY BEEN 63 KT...RELIABLE SFMR SURFACE WIND DATA HAVE BEEN AS HIGH 57-60 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE LOWEST CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A DROPSONDE WAS 986 MB...BUT THE SURFACE WIND WAS 46 KT. THEREFORE... THE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 982 MB AND THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO A CONSERVATIVE 60 KT. OMAR CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED IN BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS OF -80C TO -87C PERSIST OVER AND NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ON THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF OMAR...THE FLIGHT CREW REPORTED A 10-15 NMI DIAMETER EYE WAS FORMING. OUTFLOW ALSO CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND EXPAND IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT TO THE NORTHWEST WHERE IT IS SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED.
TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
Omar getting better organized:
Tropical Storm Omar Open Thread
Use this post to ask questions and discuss Tropical Storm Omar.
Tropical Storm Omar 5 Day Cone
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN LOCAL STATEMENT
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 542 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2008
...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND FOR ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND FOR ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
.AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...OR ABOUT 270 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PONCE...OR ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST CROIX...OR ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST THOMAS.
THE DEPRESSION WAS DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH. A TURN TO THE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-150945- /O.CON.TJSJ.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR- NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST- WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES- ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX- 542 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT... ...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
DEPRESSION LOCATION. FORECAST TRACK.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN... PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN...WILL LIFT NORTHWARDS AND BRING OCCASIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ALL OF PUERTO RICO...THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING. RESIDENTS...VISITORS AND MOTORISTS SHOULD THEREFORE EXPECT AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND 30 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY TURN TOWARDS THE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST...AND MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE REST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL STORM EARLY THURSDAY. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RAPID RIVER RISES AND FLASH FLOODING...ALONG WITH MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOW.
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IT IS RECOMMENDED YOU PREPARE YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS AND REVIEW YOUR TROPICAL STORM PLAN.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
ITS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT LOCATIONS OF ANY SPECIFIC STORM TIDES TO BE CAUSED BY THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL MAY OCCUR MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...AND ALONG THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS OF CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE EXPECTED TIMES OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES THROUGHOUT THE LOCAL AREA...
IN PLAYA DE PONCE... 1.0 FEET AT 9:47 AM AST WEDNESDAY 1.1 FEET AT 10:48 AM AST THURSDAY
IN LIME TREE BAY SAINT CROIX... 1.0 FEET AT 10:13 AM AST WEDNESDAY 1.0 FEET AT 11:18 AM AST THURSDAY
IN CHARLOTTE AMALIE SAINT THOMAS... 1.1 FEET AT 9:35 AM AST WEDNESDAY 1.2 FEET AT 10:32 AM AST THURSDAY
...WINDS...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BY WEDNESDAY...AND WILL THEN CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ALL OF PUERTO RICO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EXPOSED AREAS.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THERE IS A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE THAT PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH.
...INLAND FLOODING...
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER FRINGES OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE FREQUENT BANDS THEN SPREADING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 930 AM AST THIS TUESDAY MORNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
So TD 15 is sitting in the middle of the Caribbean basin and forecast to take an unusual track and head over PR as a tropical storm (and very close to the Virgin Islands) in the next couple of days. We will be keeping a close eye on this one - slow moving storms of this size, while not packing hurricane force winds, can be very devastating to the area with the amount of rain they are capable of dropping.
ALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED THE AREA. THEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...INDICATIVE OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NONETHELESS THE CONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THIS CONSENSUS.
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD...OR 130/2. OBVIOUSLY THE STEERING WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE VERY WEAK AT THIS TIME. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH DEEPENING TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND A RIDGE BUILDING TO ITS EAST. THESE DEVELOPMENTS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN EASTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS ALSO QUITE CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
RADAR IMAGES FROM CURACAO SHOW RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION PASSING OVER THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THESE ISLANDS TODAY.
