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July 22, 2008
HURRICANE DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
...DOLLY A LITTLE STRONGER...MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.0 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES... 175 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A FURTHER REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...25.1 N...96.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 AM CDT.
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
Dolly is approaching hurricane strength:
...DOLLY NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO PORT O'CONNOR HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES...370 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE ENXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CORE OF DOLLY NEAR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...24.0 N...94.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT.
July 21, 2008
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...
AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM BROWNSVILLE TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 10 PM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 10 PM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES.
AT 10 PM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.8 WEST OR ABOUT 320 MILES...515 KM...EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 435 MILES...695 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4-6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...23.1 N...92.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 AM CDT.
July 20, 2008
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 3
We added some links to images of the gulf to help you follow Dolly. This storm is about to exit the Caribbean in the next day or two, but is currently forecast to become a hurricane. Should be an interesting week for oil prices.
...DOLLY APPROACHES THE YUCATAN...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES...290 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 95 MILES...150 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. THE CENTER OF DOLLY IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER DOLLY ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TONIGHT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND IN WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...19.6 N...85.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT.
GOES Atlantic Floater 2
Gulf of Mexico Infrared Satellite
Tropical Storm DOLLY
Dolly has finally turned into a named storm and is heading towards the Yucatan Peninsula:
...DOLLY HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES...350 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 165 MILES...265 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TONIGHT...EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF ON TUESDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEFORE DOLLY REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTER DOLLY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TONIGHT.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF UP TO 8 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...18.9 N...85.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT.
July 19, 2008
Cayman webcams
The still un-named system in the Caribbean basin is nonetheless bringing lots of wind and rain to the area. We just found this excellent page of webcams that show what is happening on Grand Cayman.
The latest from the NHC on that system:
Tropical Depression THREE
This storm is on the east coast of the US - so it really isn't something that is going to garner a lot of attention from us. Still more worried about the system currently coming through the Caribbean basin:
July 18, 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.
1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE. A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. ALL INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS JAMAICA TONIGHT. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS... NICARAGUA...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
3. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST OFF THE COASTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT... AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE COAST. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Bertha
We won't be monitoring Bertha much anymore unless she someone makes a turn to the south and moves toward the Caribbean again (not likely!). You can follow Bertha at the NHC website: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#BERTHA
Once this storm is dead that link won't work but you will be able to use our archives and the NHC archives.
Area 1 looking more organized today...
July 17, 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2008
Still a lot of unsettled weather in the region. Area 1 is still of concern for the Caribbean.
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 455 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
1. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
FOUND A BROAD CLOSED CIRCULATION BUT NO WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION
CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME
A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20-25 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
2. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BEFORE MOVING INLAND TONIGHT OR FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.
THIS ACTIVITY COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.
3. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
REMAINS LIMITED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...ESPECIALLY IF THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS
OFFSHORE...AS IT DRIFTS TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
BERTHA TURNS TOWARD THE EAST
Just amazing that Bertha is still chugging along:
...BERTHA TURNS TOWARD THE EAST...
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.2 WEST OR ABOUT 455 MILES...730 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 905 MILES... 1455 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.
BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...34.0 N...57.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST.
July 16, 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2008
This thing around Barbados (1) still could turn into a system:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED A SHORT DISTANCE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BARBADOS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY COMPLETED ITS MISSION IN THE DISTURBANCE...AND FOUND A BROAD CLOSED CIRCULATION BUT NO WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT AS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS EARLIER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20-25 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
2. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES CENTRAL AMERICA IN A DAY OR SO. REGARDLESS...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS TOMORROW...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
3. DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED IN THIS AREA.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
NHC: THE TROPICS ARE VERY BUSY FOR THE MIDDLE OF JULY.
Things are - busy:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE TROPICS ARE VERY BUSY FOR THE MIDDLE OF JULY.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 380 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
1. DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WATERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE RISING AND DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THIS AREA TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
3. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF NICARAGUA IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BEFORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA LATE TOMORROW. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS TOMORROW...WITH FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Water vapor satellite...
...image - of the yet to be named system:
Looks pretty intense at the moment.
Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 2 closeup
This doesn't look so good:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2008
It looks like the Caribbean needs to be concerned about this again, especially area 2:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 335 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
1. DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND.
2. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 53
Bertha is still chugging along out in the Atlantic:
...BERTHA TURNS EASTWARD...
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.0 WEST OR ABOUT 355 MILES...575 KM...NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...36.4 N...61.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.
July 15, 2008
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 50
...LONG-LIVED BERTHA TO HANG AROUND FOR A FEW MORE DAYS...
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES...415 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. BERTHA IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...35.6 N...62.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.
Tropical weather update
Bertha is still chugging along out in the open Atlantic. She is not longer any threat to the Caribbean and since she has passed Bermuda we will not be putting too much focus on this storm any more.
Good news this morning from the NHC regarding the disturbance east of the Lesser Antilles:
We will continue to monitor this one closely.
July 14, 2008
CENTER OF BERTHA PULLING AWAY FROM BERMUDA
...CENTER OF BERTHA PULLING AWAY FROM BERMUDA...
AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA...BUT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...195 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...BERTHA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND BERTHA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER.
EARLIER TODAY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH...80 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 68 MPH...109 KM/HR...WERE REPORTED AT L.F. WADE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN BERMUDA.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
BERTHA COULD PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. L.F. WADE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN BERMUDA REPORTED 4.68 INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THE 24 HOURS ENDING AT 800 PM AST MONDAY.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...33.8 N...63.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 85 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME AT TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
This other system brewing up looks like it has the potential to affect the Caribbean:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS INCREASED A LITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
I am worried about this one...
The NHC seems concerned about area 1 - and I am too since I am on St. Thomas for some business this week!
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
1. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED AT THE PRESENT TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE AFFECTING BERMUDA
Bertha is pestering Bermuda:
...WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE AFFECTING BERMUDA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST EAST OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY.
BERTHA IS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 68 MPH...WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT COMMISSIONER'S POINT IN BERMUDA.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...31.6 N...63.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.
July 13, 2008
More areas of concern
The NHC is also looking at two more areas for potential tropical activity this Sunday morning. One off the east coast of the US and another, larger, area that is currently in the Atlantic off the coast of South America. We will be traveling today but will keep an eye on these and post whatever updates we can as soon as we can.
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY-DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
2. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
BERTHA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM
...BERTHA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES...355 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
BERTHA IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY. A DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE MOTION COULD BE ERRATIC AT TIMES AND COULD BRING THE CENTER OF BERTHA CLOSER TO BERMUDA THAN THE FORECAST TRACK INDICATES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...115 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...29.8 N...62.5 W. MOVEMENT... STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.
July 12, 2008
Bermuda expects slight punch from hurricane
From CNN:
Hurricane Bertha spins in the Atlantic. Cuba, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico are at lower left.
At 5 p.m. ET the center of Bertha was about 210 miles (340 km) southeast of Bermuda. Its maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph, barely Category 1 hurricane strength, with higher gusts.
A tropical storm warning, meaning tropical storm conditions including winds of at least 39 mph are expected within 24 hours, remained in effect for Bermuda.
CATEGORY ONE BERTHA SITTING STATIONARY SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA
Not much new in the Bertha news:
...CATEGORY ONE BERTHA SITTING STATIONARY SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.
AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES... 345 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
BERTHA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE DAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A NORTHWARD DRIFT LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY THAT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL BE VERY SLOWLY PASSING SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE MOTION COULD OCCASIONALLY BE ERRATIC.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.
LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...29.9 N...62.5 W. MOVEMENT...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST.
July 11, 2008
BERTHA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE
...BERTHA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
INTERESTS ON BERMUDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR THE ISLAND LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES... 565 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...BERTHA WILL SLOWLY APPROACH BERMUDA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...28.0 N...61.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.
Hurricane Bertha chugs toward Bermuda
From CNN:
Forecasters could not predict how close Bertha's strong winds would come to Bermuda, but a tropical storm watch may be issued there Friday, the National Hurricane Center said.
As of 5 a.m. Friday, Bertha's center was about 350 miles (565 kilometers) south-southeast of Bermuda, moving northwest at near 7 mph (11 kph). The storm's maximum sustained winds had decreased slightly to about 85 mph (140 kph) with higher gusts, forecasters said.
The storm is expected to slow down its forward progress and turn toward the north and northeast in the next two days, the hurricane center said.
July 10, 2008
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
...WEAKER BERTHA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...SWELLS NOW AFFECTING BERMUDA...
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT TO WHICH BERTHA COULD IMPACT BERMUDA. INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.2 WEST OR ABOUT 485 MILES... 785 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH... 150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING BERTHA A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WHILE BERTHA HAS WEAKENED THIS MORNING...IT COULD RE-INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.
LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF HAVE STARTED TO AFFECTED BERMUDA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...26.5 N...60.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.
July 9, 2008
BERTHA STRENGTHENS BACK TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
Bertha has regained some strength, but the Caribbean appears to have been spared.
...BERTHA STRENGTHENS BACK TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.1 WEST OR ABOUT 560 MILES... 900 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 660 MILES...1060 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BERTHA COULD AGAIN BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF COULD BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF BERMUDA TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...24.8 N...58.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST.
July 8, 2008
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
Bertha continues to weaken:
BERTHA WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
Looks like Bertha is weakening, and also forecast to pass wide of Bermuda. Not an all clear yet - but looks like this storm will be just a footnote to this hurricane season:
...BERTHA WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.8 WEST OR ABOUT 620 MILES... 1000 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 900 MILES...1450 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF BERMUDA LATE TOMORROW.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...22.7 N...54.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST.
Powerful Hurricane Bertha May Weaken Over Atlantic, Center Says
This is from Bloomberg:
Bertha's maximum sustained winds were blowing at 120 miles (195 kilometers) an hour, the center said in an advisory posted on its Web site shortly after 4:30 a.m. Miami time. The system strengthened yesterday from a tropical storm.
"Some fluctuations in intensity may occur today, but a gradual weakening trend is expected to begin within the next couple of days," the center said.
So the conditions are not expected to have Bertha continue strengthening at this point.
POWERFUL BERTHA MAINTAINING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS
Wow - Bertha has picked up substantial strength over night and is now a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale:
...POWERFUL BERTHA MAINTAINING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.3 WEST OR ABOUT 675 MILES... 1085 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1035 MILES...1660 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY MAY OCCUR TODAY... BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...21.4 N...53.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.
The good news on Bertha is that current tracking models seem to keep it in the Atlantic, which will make it a concern for shipping but hopefully spare Bermuda.
July 7, 2008
Visible Satellite of Hurricane Bertha
Here is a visible satellite shot of Bertha - you can find more images like this here.
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
...CORRECTED PRESSURE...
...BERTHA STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...COULD REACH CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY LATER TODAY...
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.3 WEST OR ABOUT 775 MILES... 1250 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BERTHA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...19.6 N...51.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.
Hurricane Bertha is First of the 2008 Season
From VOA:
Hurricane Bertha is moving across the waters of the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Forecasters said Monday it is too early to determine if Bertha poses a threat to any land areas.
As of this Monday morning, Bertha had maximum sustained winds of nearly 120 kilometers-per-hour. Forecasters say some additional strengthening is expected during the next few days.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30."
BERTHA BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON
Well Bertha is a hurricane and as of this morning it is looking like Bermuda could be in the path of this storm.
...BERTHA BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON...
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST OR ABOUT 845 MILES... 1365 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS BERTHA REMAINS OVER THE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF BERTHA WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT ANY LAND AREAS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...19.3 N...50.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.
July 6, 2008
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
...BERTHA STRENGTHENING...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE...
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1055 MILES...1700 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF BERTHA WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT ANY LAND AREAS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND BERTHA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...18.1 N...47.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST.
July 5, 2008
Tropical Storm Bertha 5 open thread
Please use this post to discuss Tropical Storm Bertha.
Tropical Storm Bertha 5 day cone
Click the image for a larger version:
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
Sorry for our lack of updates so far on Bertha - we had to help a friend out over the holiday weekend and we also lost our Internet connection for a while. Bertha is now forecast on a much more southerly track, between Bermuda and the Bahamas, and also to become a hurricane. It is still early days for this storm and the NHC is being cautious, but this may become an issue for the Caribbean. We will be watching closely this coming week and trying to post as much news and information as we can for this storm.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BERTHA CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A CONVECTIVE BURSTING PATTERN WITH THE CENTER CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND SO IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY...45 KT. BERTHA IS BEGINNING TO ENCOUNTER WARMER WATERS AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE 27 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM IN 36-48 HOURS. SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD...SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN BEYOND 48 HOURS DUE TO SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODELS AND THE RESULTING DIFFERENCES IN THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS BERTHA MIGHT EXPERIENCE. A TRACK MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH WOULD ALLOW MORE STRENGTHENING WHILE A TRACK MORE TOWARDS THE WEST WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. SINCE THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST TAKES BERTHA INTO AN AREA WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST BEYOND 72 HOURS. THIS NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY MODELS.
BERTHA CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 280/18. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS COURTESY OF A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THEREAFTER... THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TRACK MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. IN FACT...THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODELS SPAN NEARLY 1300 MILES AT DAY 5 WITH THE UKMET MODEL KEEPING BERTHA HEADED WESTWARD AND THE HWRF TURNING THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK MODEL ENVELOPE.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS LARGER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS OF BERTHA. ACCORDINGLY...IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF BERTHA WILL OR WILL NOT POSE A THREAT TO ANY LAND AREAS.
July 4, 2008
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
...BERTHA MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.3 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES...505 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING OF BERTHA IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...14.2 N...28.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.
July 3, 2008
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
...BERTHA INTENSIFIES SLIGHTLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.0 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES...300 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
OUTER RAINBANDS COULD CONTINUE TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...13.4 N...27.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST.
SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS IN THE ATLANTIC
Folks - we have Bertha:
...SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... ...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.7 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES...310 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
WHILE THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY...OUTER RAINBANDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...13.3 N...24.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 1
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 22.7 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES...405 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...12.6 N...22.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT.
July 2, 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
The NHC is definitely watching this system that is still on the other side of the Atlantic. But now there is also a small disturbance very near the Caribbean islands:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10-15 MPH.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS ALSO BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO AN AREA OF UPPER- LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE NOT CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR OVER THE LEEWARD AND NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2008
The NHC is definitely on top of this system even though it is so far away:
...CORRECTED TIME OF PRODUCT...
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 150 MILES WEST OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
July 1, 2008
NHC watching a tropical wave
This thing is very far away but it has already caught the attention of the NHC:
We will keep a close eye on any development and keep you posted.
