Caribbean-On-Line » Caribbean Hurricanes » Caribbean Weather News » TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2008
July 16, 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2008
This thing around Barbados (1) still could turn into a system:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED A SHORT DISTANCE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BARBADOS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY COMPLETED ITS MISSION IN THE DISTURBANCE...AND FOUND A BROAD CLOSED CIRCULATION BUT NO WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT AS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS EARLIER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20-25 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
2. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES CENTRAL AMERICA IN A DAY OR SO. REGARDLESS...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS TOMORROW...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
3. DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED IN THIS AREA.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
