TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 455 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

1. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
FOUND A BROAD CLOSED CIRCULATION BUT NO WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION
CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME
A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20-25 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

2. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BEFORE MOVING INLAND TONIGHT OR FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.
THIS ACTIVITY COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

3. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
REMAINS LIMITED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...ESPECIALLY IF THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS
OFFSHORE...AS IT DRIFTS TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.