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August 31, 2008
National Hurricane Center Gustav Forecast
Carnival cruise extended by Gustav
If you were looking forward to seeing friends or family from this ship, you'll have to wait a couple of more days:
The Carnival Ecstasy, which visited Progreso in the Mexican state of Yucatan, will "remain at sea at a safe distance away from the storm" and will return to Galveston on Wednesday, the cruise line said in a written statement.
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SUGGESTS THAT GUSTAV IS GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A HINT OF AN EYE RETURNING. ADDITIONALLY...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER HAS FALLEN TO 957 MB. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 105 KT WHILE THE MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS WERE 93 KT. ALSO...THE CONVECTION...WHILE VIGOROUS...IS STILL RATHER ASYMMETRIC AROUND THE 30 NM WIDE EYE THAT IS OPEN TO THE SE. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 100 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS WOBBLING BETWEEN 315 AND 320 DEGREES AT 15-16 KT...WITH 320/16 BEING THE ADVISORY MOTION. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXPECTED TO STEER GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE NEW GUIDANCE RUNS...MOST NOTABLY THE HWRF...SHOW A SLIGHT LEFT TURN AFTER 12 HR WITH A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE LANDFALL POINT ON THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND SINCE IT LIES NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SOME ADDITIONAL SMALL SHIFTS MAY BE NECESSARY LATER. AFTER 48-72 HR...THERE REMAINS MAJOR DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON WHETHER GUSTAV WILL RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES...SHEAR APART AND STALL OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS...OR TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HR FOLLOWS THE SHEAR-APART-AND-STALL SCENARIO...CALLING FOR GUSTAV TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS OVER LAND.
ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT GUSTAV REMAINS IN ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR...WITH A LOT OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE EYE HAS MOVED NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP WARM WATER OF THE LOOP CURRENT...AND THAT COMBINED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED SHEAR REDUCES THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS NO STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL...WHILE THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST ABOUT 10 KT OF STRENGTHENING. GIVEN THE FALLING PRESSURES AND THE COLD CONVECTION...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO 110 KT BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. GUSTAV SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 120 HR.
Category 5 Hurricane Gustav Hits Cuba
Gulf Coast Prepares As Gustav Slams Cuba
"Officials measured gusts of 212 mph"
Wow - not much is usually left at that point (from the NY Times):
A Cuban television reporter on the Isla de la Juventud said the storm had felt like ''the blast wave from a bomb.''
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008
Gustav, Hanna, and two more systems out in the Atlantic - a very busy Sunday for the NHC:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE GUSTAV...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 155 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALSO HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
Tropical Update, Sunday August 31, 2008
As of Sunday morning TS Hanna is looking somewhat disorganized. The NHC has made radical changes to the path of this storm in the last couple of days, and the atmosphere surrounding it seems very unstable - so a lot could still change, from it getting sheared apart, to it becoming better organized again. We'll just have to wait and see what mother nature is up to with this one.
Hurricane Gustav came off of Cuba looking weaker than expected. Any weakness now is good news for the US Gulf Coast:
August 30, 2008
Photos from Cayman as Gustav passed through
Here are some pictures from Ann in the Cayman Islands from Friday, August 29:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUSTAV...LOCATED NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 265 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.
1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1025 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DECREASED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SHOWERS AND SQUALLS FROM THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
Gustav update
Gustav is now a category 4 and could become a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. This already deadly storm is now at a much higher danger level than it was when it came through Hispaniola and the Cayman Islands. Western Cuba, and eventually the Gulf Coast need to be prepared for the severity of Gustav.
Gustav Swells to 'Dangerous' Category 3
Gustav becomes a hurricane
Living in Grand Cayman
Living in Grand Cayman is a blog by someone... living in Grand Cayman. Check out their recent posts, many that are about Gustav. Thankfully it is looking like the Caymans didn't get hit that hard.
Gustav swells to dangerous Cat 3 storm off Cuba
From the AP:
The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami called the storm, which has already killed 71 people in the Caribbean, ''dangerous'' and said it had become the second major hurricane of the Atlantic season, following Bertha in July.
Cuban state television announced that all buses and trains to and from Havana were suspended, as was ferry service to the Isla de Juventud, the outlying Cuban island next in Gustav's path.
Authorities announced they were prepared to ''protect'' the 20,000 tourists in Matanzas province, which includes the famous beach resort of Varadero.
Gustav rolled over the Cayman Islands Friday with fierce winds that tore down trees and power lines.
At first light Saturday, Associated Press journalists found that Grand Cayman island was spared major damage. Big surging waves pounded at the island, but there was little flooding, and wind damage was limited because islanders had removed signs and other items that could blow away.
Stormpulse
Stormpulse is a pretty cool website - they have some nice representations of satellite images, like the one below:
Gustav swells to dangerous Cat 3 storm off Cuba
From the AP:
The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami called the storm "dangerous" and said it had reached the status of a major hurricane, the second one of this Atlantic season after Bertha in July.
Gustav, which killed 71 people in the Caribbean, rolled over the Cayman Islands Friday with fierce winds that tore down trees and power lines. It was expected to cross Cuba's cigar country Saturday and head into the Gulf of Mexico by Sunday.
Gustav first struck Cayman Brac and Little Cayman, the smaller easternmost "Sister Islands" in the chain. Storm surge and heavy rains flooded the streets.
August 29, 2008
Tropical Storms Hanna and Gustav August 29, 2008
From the NOAA:
A hurricane again, Gustav plows toward Caymans
From the AP:
Gustav, which killed 71 people in the Caribbean, was expected to swirl through the Cayman Islands, a tiny offshore tax haven studded with resorts and cruise-ship souvenir shops, before crossing Cuba's cigar country and heading into the Gulf of Mexico by Sunday.
Well-heeled tourists fled Cayman hotels by air, while Katrina victims in Mississippi still living in emergency cottages and trailers were told to evacuate beginning this weekend.
Hotels on the Cayman Islands asked guests to leave, then after the airport closed prepared to shelter those who remained. Chris Smith, of Frederick, Maryland, said his hotel handed out wrist bands marked with guests' names and room numbers so that "if something happens they can quickly identify us."
"That was a little bit sobering," he said, standing outside the hotel with his luggage.
Gustav Set to Batter Cuba, Enter Gulf of Mexico
Collapsed bridge in Kingston
Dramatic photo from the AP - (Collin Reid/Associated Press) of a bridge collapsed in Kingston, Jamaica, on Friday after heavy rains from Tropical Storm Gustav.
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 20
...GUSTAV BECOMES A HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE WESTERN CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...AND FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...AND GRANMA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES... 160 KM...EAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 380 MILES...610 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT...OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA ON SATURDAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND GUSTAV COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE NEAR THE TIME IT CROSSES WESTERN CUBA.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH 8 TO 13 FEET POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INCLUDING ISLA DE JUVENTUD.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN CUBA.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...19.2 N...79.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT.
Gustav Grows Stronger, Aims for Cayman Islands, Western Cuba
From the VOA:
Gustav was expected to pass near or over the Cayman Islands later Friday and western Cuba on Saturday. Forecasters say the storm that has already caused at least 72 deaths could produce more than half a meter of rain in some areas.
The Miami-based National Hurricane Center said Gustav had sustained winds of up to 120 kilometers per hour mid-afternoon Friday. The center says the Category one storm is likely to grow into a major hurricane over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
Cayman Webcams for Gustav
We have a Cayman Islands webcam up courtesy of Cayman Chillin, a rental villa in the Cayman Islands. The owner has several webcams on the property - it is a good chance to get a look at Gustav, as long as the electricity and the web server can hold out!
Gustav morning news
Looks like the center of Gustav is nearly clear of Jamaica this morning. There is still lots of wind and rain, and reading some of the first hand reports it sounds like the back side of the storm was worse than the front.
Some headlines:
Gustav batters Jamaica, expected to strengthen
Hurricane Gustav kills nearly 70 in Caribbean
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
Gustav is looking tricky - the track could still go almost anywhere - and the NHC is expecting to strengthen rapidly into a hurricane:
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT GUSTAV HAS AN EXPANDING CLOUD SHIELD AND IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURES. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE THAT HAS BEEN SAMPLING THE STORM'S CIRCULATION FOUND THAT THE SIZE OF GUSTAV HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED. ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO SAMPLE THE CENTER...PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 52 KT WERE OBSERVED...ALONG WITH SIMILAR VALUES FOR THE SFMR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 285/7. THERE IS A COMPLICATED EVOLUTION TO THE STEERING CURRENTS AROUND GUSTAV DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA THAT HAS BEEN STEERING THE STORM WESTWARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TODAY. THE BERMUDA HIGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CAUSE GUSTAV TO MOVE MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. ONE BIG QUESTION IS THE EVOLUTION OF A MID- TO UPPER- LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. SOME OF THE MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS/GFDL/HWRF...ARE SHOWING THIS LOW CREATING ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE BERMUDA HIGH TO ALLOW A MOTION MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES CUBA. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THAT TRACK BRIEFLY OCCURRED...BUT IN THE LONGER-TERM...A HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE GUSTAV TO GRADUALLY BEND TO THE LEFT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE BEND. THE UKMET AND GFS HAVE HAD LARGE CHANGES TO THEIR FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS...AND GIVEN THE INCREASING MODEL SPREAD...WE'VE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. HOPEFULLY A G-IV MISSION LATER TODAY WILL HELP RESOLVE SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES.
AFTER THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM JAMAICA...SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE VERY LIGHT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND COMBINED WITH THE DEEP WARM CARIBBEAN WATERS...COULD PRODUCE A STRONG HURRICANE VERY QUICKLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW RAPID INTENSIFICATION BEFORE IT REACHES WESTERN CUBA AND COULD BE CONSERVATIVE AS SOME MODELS SHOW CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH AT THAT TIME. A LARGE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS TROUGH MAY IMPART SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON GUSTAV AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST SHOWS SOME WEAKENING DUE TO THE SHEAR...GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
The 5:00 AM EST updates are out from the NHC. Hanna looks like a interesting storm. The models are not in agreement about the track or intensity at the moment:
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF HANNA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE AWAY...IT IS STILL PRODUCING SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. ONCE AGAIN THE CENTER HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS NOW CONFINED TO A CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS...BUT WITH THE CURRENT SHEARED PATTERN...THIS ESTIMATE COULD BE GENEROUS. THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO BE THE KEY PLAYER FOR BOTH THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF HANNA FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. IF THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY AS INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS...THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES A GOOD SOLUTION FROM GLOBAL MODELS AND CALLS FOR A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION FROM 24 TO 72 HOURS. THE FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL BUT DOES NOT SHOWS AS MUCH STRENGTHENING AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL AND HWRF.
HANNA HAS BEEN MOVING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BEYOND 3 DAYS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE CARVING A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND DEVELOPING A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE HANNA ON A SLOW SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK BEYOND THREE DAYS...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE BIT OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION BUT DOES NOT GO AS FAR SOUTH AS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE MODELS. IN FACT...THE GFS HAS JOINED THE REST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IN BRINGING THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD. I PREFER TO WAIT FOR MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE FORECAST SUCH A RARE BUT NOT UNIQUE TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.
August 28, 2008
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
Gustav could become a major hurricane:
It appears from various news reports that Jamaica is having wind and rain but not getting hit too hard, and currently Gustav is only classified as a tropical storm. It has a long way to go and could lose more steam than expected traveling the length of Jamaica, but if it makes it to the other side a lot of warm water (fuel) will be waiting for it - and the Cayman Islands unfortunately look to be directly in line at the moment.
Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management
The Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management of Jamaica press release page can be found here.
They are issuing releases regarding storm status and evacuation plans, etc.
Tropical Storm Hanna forms as Gustav soaks Jamaica
From McClatchy:
Hanna, the eighth named storm of the 2008 hurricane season, is spinning about 1,500 miles east-southeast of Miami with 40 mph winds. Forecasters said Hanna could grow into a hurricane by Labor Day but likely wouldn't threaten the U.S. coast until later next week, if at all.
Meanwhile, Gustav's winds increased to 70 mph from 45 mph overnight as it took a turn toward Jamaica. The center of Gustav was moving over the island's eastern shoreline at 2 p.m., about 40 miles east of Kingston.
51 Haitians die in Hurricane Gustav
Just terrible news from Haiti:
Civil protection department director Marie Alta Jean-Baptiste says the death count increased fivefold on Thursday as news reached officials from remote areas.
At least 25 people were killed near Jacmel, on the country's southern peninsula, where Gustav came ashore Tuesday as a Category 1 hurricane.
Civil protection official Jean-Michel Sabbat says most of those people were killed by landslides and falling trees in the mountains.
Wow!
The tropics are very active at the moment. This is a heck of an image if you are a weather buff:
If you are planning any travel in the Caribbean, Central America, the Gulf Coast, Florida, etc. in the next week or two you better be paying attention to the weather. I am going to take this opportunity to plug travel insurance again also - remember - you have to be covered before a storm is named to be covered!
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV...LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF JAMAICA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 305 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
1. A CONCENTRATED AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS PERSISTED TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO EVIDENCE YET OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION OVER WATER. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE MOVING VERY SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO TODAY AND FRIDAY.
2. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS SPARSE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
3. A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND IS ABOUT TO EMERGE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
Tourists flee as Gustav churns toward Jamaica
From the AP:
Gustav moved away from the island of Hispaniola, where it killed 23 people in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and inched toward Jamaica's low-lying capital, 80 miles (130 kilometers) to the west. Forecasters predicted it would hug Jamaica's southern shore before making a near-direct hit on Grand Cayman.
Even as tourists searched for flights off the islands, officials urged calm. Theresa Foster, one of the owners of the Grand Caymanian Resort, said Gustav didn't look as threatening as Hurricane Ivan, which destroyed 70 percent of Grand Cayman's buildings four years ago.
"Whatever was going to blow away has already blown away," she said.
Tropical Storm Hanna Open Thread
Use this thread to ask a question or leave a comment about Tropical Storm/Hurricane Hanna.
Tropical Storm Hanna 5 Day Cone
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
Hanna has been named - it is already forecast to become a hurricane:
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS IMPROVED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS AND LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 35 KT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM HANNA. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT HANNA'S LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION INDICATING WESTERLY SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST IS IMPACTING THE SYSTEM. SINCE THE OCEAN IS PLENTY WARM...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PRIMARILY A FUNCTION OF HOW HANNA INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PLACING HANNA IN A LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH AMPLE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT WOULD FAVOR INTENSIFICATION SHOULD IT MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...THERE IS A FINE LINE BETWEEN A FAVORABLE AND UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT SPACING BETWEEN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND HANNA TO PROMOTE STRENGTHENING. BY DAY 5...UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM GUSTAV COULD IMPART NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER HANNA POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE INTENSITY.
HANNA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...OR 300/10...DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS HANNA MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...THE TRACK BECOMES MUCH LESS CERTAIN AS IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW HANNA WILL INTERACT WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW HANNA BEING LEFT BEHIND IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING. HOWEVER...THE TRADITIONALLY GOOD PERFORMING GFS FORECASTS HANNA TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THE FORMER OF THOSE SCENARIOS AND SHOWS A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK.
Tropical Storm Gustav shifts track to the south
From Reuters:
"The re-formation of the center has caused a big southward change ... and Gustav is now forecast to pass near the south coast of Jamaica," the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.
While the storm's eventual U.S. landfall could be anywhere from the Florida Panhandle to Texas, one of its likely tracks was west of New Orleans, the southern U.S. city devastated by Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
Gustav was projected to hit the U.S. Gulf Coast around Monday, two days after the third anniversary of Katrina, which killed 1,500 people and caused at least $80 billion in damage in several Gulf Coast states.
The NHC basically lost track of this storm overnight. The shift south is a pretty major move. It just reinforces the fact that you have to be prepared for anything when these storms are within a few hundred miles of your location.
New Orleans Watching Gustav's Path
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands need to be prepared for Gustav:
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS FOUND MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 67 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 60 KT AT THE SURFACE. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY FORECAST TO REFLECT THE CURRENT AND FORECAST INTENSITY. THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. THE STRENGTHENING OF GUSTAV HAS PROMPTED THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA TO ISSUE A HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA.
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE ISSUANCE OF AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 800 AM EDT.
UPDATE
Area 1 just become TD 8 - this will probably become Hanna as the day goes on -
Tropical Storm Gustav Satellite Image
Here is a picture from yesterday:
Gustav nears Jamaica as New Orleans keeps watch
Another update, this one from the AP - they have a death toll of 23:
A day after stalling off Haiti's coast, the tropical storm was centered about 80 miles (130 kilometers) east-northeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 kph) at 2 a.m. EDT.
The storm was expected to pass very close to Jamaica later in the day, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. It's maximum sustained winds were near 45 mph (75 kph). But was forecast to regain strength and the hurricane center said it could become a hurricane again by Friday.
Gustav Heads Past Cuba for Gulf After Drenching Haiti
Gustave took a pretty large toll of life on Hispaniola - 22 people - always sad to to see this kind of news. Here is and update from Bloomberg:
"The potential we see in this thing is pretty high," Dan Kottlowski, a meteorologist with private forecaster AccuWeather.com, said in an interview yesterday. "It would not take too much to make this a category 5 hurricane."
Gustav killed at least 22 people in Haiti and the Dominican Republic as it passed over the island of Hispaniola, which they share, the Associated Press reported yesterday. A tropical storm warning is in effect for parts of southern Cuba.
The eye of Gustav, where sustained winds are almost 45 miles (75 kilometers) per hour, was 105 miles south-southwest of Guantanamo, Cuba, and 80 miles east-northeast of Kingston, Jamaica, just before 2 a.m. Miami time yesterday, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said in its latest advisory.
It was moving west-southwest at about 8 mph on a path that should take it between Jamaica and Cuba today and tomorrow, the advisory said. Gustav may regain hurricane strength by tomorrow before 8 p.m. Miami time.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008
Area 1 is looking very ripe at the moment. Looks like we will have two named storms at the same time soon:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV...LOCATED ABOUT 80 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
1. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY BE FORMING ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.
2. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 750 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MILES PER HOUR.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
August 27, 2008
Gustav kills 22; US Gulf Coast prepares
From the AP:
Oil prices jumped above US$119 a barrel as workers began to evacuate from the offshore rigs responsible for a quarter of U.S. crude production and much of America's natural gas.
"We know it's going to head into the Gulf. After that, we're not sure where it's heading," said Rebecca Waddington, a meteorologist at the Miami-based National Hurricane Center. "For that reason, everyone in Gulf needs to be monitoring the storm. At that point, we're expecting it to be a Category 3 hurricane."
On Wednesday, Gustav was moving off of Haiti's southwestern peninsula into the waters between Cuba and Jamaica. Its tentative track pointed directly at the Cayman Islands, an offshore banking center where residents boarded up homes and stocked up on emergency supplies in preparation for a possible direct hit Friday.
Cayman Airways Gustav update
GEORGE TOWN, GRAND CAYMAN - AUGUST 26, 2008 - Cayman Airways would like to advise the public of the following flight operations update due to the current projected path of Hurricane Gustav.
All flights are presently expected to operate according to the normal schedule with the exception of the following cancellations:
• KX792 GCM-JFK (Aug 27, Aug 28, Aug 29)
• KX793 JFK-GCM (Aug 28, Aug 29, Aug 30)
• KX832 GCM-HAV (Aug 28, Aug 29)
• KX833 HAV-GCM (Aug 28, Aug 29)
Passengers are advised to contact their travel agents or Cayman Airways Ticket Office for alternate travel arrangements.
In addition the following flights will be added:
Wednesday, 27th August
Flight # Depart Arrive
3404 from Cayman Brac 3:30p 4:00p
3401 to Cayman Brac 6:05p 6:35p
3402 from Cayman Brac 7:15p 7:45p
3606 to Kingston 5:30p 6:25p
3607 from Kingston 7:05p 8:00p
3102 to Miami 8:00a 10:20a
3103 from Miami 11:20a 11:40a
3114 to Miami 8:45a 11:05a
3115 from Miami 12:05p 12:25p
3104 to Miami 12:40p 3:00p
3105 from Miami 4:00p 4:20p
3116 to Miami 1:25p 3:45p
3117 from Miami 4:45p 5:05p
3108 to Miami 4:00p 6:20p
3109 from Miami 7:20p 7:40p
3110 to Miami 8:40p 11:00p
3118 to Miami 8:45p 11:05p
3106 to Miami 9:00p 11:20p
3112 to Miami 10:20p 12:40a (next day)
Thursday, 28th August
Flight # Depart Arrive
3401 to Cayman Brac 6:30a 7:00a
3402 from Cayman Brac 7:30a 8:00a
3600 to Kingston 11:45a 12:40p
3601 from Kingston 1:30p 2:25p
3102 to Miami 8:00a 10:20a
3103 from Miami 11:20a 11:40a
3114 to Miami 8:45a 11:05a
3115 from Miami 12:05p 12:25p
3104 to Miami 12:40p 3:00p
3105 from Miami 4:00p 4:20p
3116 to Miami 1:25p 3:45p
3117 from Miami 4:45p 5:05p
3106 to Miami 7:40p 10:00p
3110 to Miami 8:40p 11:00p
3118 to Miami 9:20p 11:40p
3112 to Miami 10:20p 12:40a (next day)
3200 to Tampa 4:00p 6:40p
3201 from Tampa 7:40p 8:20p
Further, the following flights have been added to/from the Sister Islands on 27th August:
EXPRESS
4421 to Cayman Brac/Little Cayman 7:10a 7:50a
4421 to Grand Cayman (from Cayman Brac) 8:10a 9:00a
4422 to Little Cayman/Cayman Brac 9:15a 9:50a
4422 to Grand Cayman (from Cayman Brac) 10:30a 11:10a
4423 to Little Cayman/Cayman Brac 12:30p 1:05p
4423 to Grand Cayman (from Cayman Brac) 2:20p 3:00p
The City Ticket Office and Reservations Departments will remain open tonight (Tuesday) until 7:00pm and tomorrow (Wednesday) until 9:00pm. Because of the uncertainty surrounding the date of resumption of normal operations, return tickets are currently not being confirmed between August 30 - September 5. Passengers wishing to confirm return flights are able to do so outside of these dates at the published hurricane fare. Please note that the hurricane fare will be available at 12:01am August 27.
Change fees/penalties are being waived for all passengers travelling to or from any Cayman Airways gateway between August 26 - 31, 2008. Only two changes per ticket are permitted. For passengers who decide to cancel their reservations, a travel voucher for the full value of the ticket may be issued. This voucher must be issued before departure of original travel date and is valid for travel only on Cayman Airways for a year from the date of issuance.
Passengers are asked to ensure that all travel documents are in order, which include: visas, re-entry stamps and all other immigration requirements.
Due to the uncertainty of the weather situation surrounding Hurricane Gustav, for the latest and most accurate flight information passengers are advised to check the Cayman Airways website at www.caymanairways.com or with the Cayman Airways Reservations Department at 949-2311.
For further information, please contact:
Corporate Communications
1-345-743-8228
Gustav Poised to Strengthen, Head to Gulf
Hurricane Gustav forces cruise ships to scramble
The USA Today Cruise Log has new of several cruise ship diversions due to Gustav:
Carnival, meanwhile, says it has tinkered with this week's itinerary of the 2,974-passenger Carnival Conquest to avoid the hurricane's path. Carnival spokesman Vance Gulliksen tells USA TODAY the ship will call in Progreso, Mexico instead of Montego Bay, Jamaica, and the line also is switching the order of the ship's port calls in Grand Cayman and Cozumel.
Carnival is changing the itinerary of another ship in the Western Caribbean today as Hurricane Gustav bears down on the region. Instead of heading west to the Cayman Islands and Jamaica as scheduled, the Miami-based, 2,758-passenger Carnival Triumph has turned eastward and will instead call later this week at Half Moon Cay and Nassau in the Bahamas.
Gustav downgraded - for now
Gustav was downgraded to a tropical storm, but intensification is forecast and it still looks like it will become at least a category 2 or 3 hurricane at some point:
GUSTAV HAS BEEN HUGGING THE NORTH COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN HAITI THIS MORNING WITH STRONG BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 998 MB AND RELIABLE SFMR WINDS OF 45-50 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 50 KT. LITTLE INTENSIFICATION IS FORESEEN UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HAITI. THEREAFTER...A STEADY INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY... ESPECIALLY AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INTO THE MORE OPEN WATERS NORTHWEST OF JAMAICA. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT...AND COMBINED WITH THE DEEP WARM WATERS...RAPID INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE CENTER IS NEAR OR SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM EARLIER DUE TO THE INITIAL WEAKENING BUT STILL SHOWS THE STORM BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE LONGER-TERM... THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF UPPER-WIND PATTERNS...BUT IN GENERAL THE UPPER WINDS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE STORM HAS NOT BEEN MOVING MUCH RECENTLY BUT AN AVERAGED OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS YIELDS AN ESTIMATE OF 300/4. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS LIKELY TODAY AS THE STORM BUMPS INTO A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. GUSTAV SHOULD THEN BE STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE GFS IS AN EXTREME OUTLIER EARLY ON...TAKING THE STORM NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...WHICH IS CONSIDERED VERY UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
Hurricane Hits Haiti, Drives Up Oil Prices
August 26, 2008
Hurricane Gustav Roars Over Haiti
Raw video of Gustav from the AP:
Hurricane Gustav slams Haiti
From AFP:
Gustav was a Category One hurricane, the lowest on the five-scale Saffir-Simpson scale, but still packing sustained winds of 150 kilometers (90 miles) per hour, with higher gusts, the Miami-based National Hurricane Center said in a statement.
The Atlantic heats up
Lots of action popping up this afternoon across the Atlantic as the dog days of August draw to an end:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUSTAV...LOCATED JUST INLAND ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI...AND THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY...LOCATED NEAR THE ALABAMA/TENNESSEE BORDER.
1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST- NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...THEY ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.
2. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
3. CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Hurricane Gustav
TD 7 quickly went from a tropical depression, to a tropical storm, to Hurricane Gustav. It is on track at the moment to skirt along in the Caribbean off the south shore of Cuba before eventually making it into the Gulf of Mexico. Cuba and Haiti are already swamped from Fay, and Jamaica and some of the Cayman Islands could also see weather from this system. Overall not a great situation.
The other system on the NHC radar is also looking a bit more favorable for development this morning:
Looks like a busy week in the Caribbean.
Gustav becomes hurricane, threatens Haiti
From AFP:
Earlier, the Haitian government urged its population to take precautions and appealed for international help to deal with the storm's aftermath, some 10 days after Tropical Storm Fay left about 47 people dead or missing on the island.
HURRICANE GUSTAV FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS... GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. ALSO THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS HAITI. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 71.9W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT
August 25, 2008
Hurricane Gustav Open Thread
Use this post to ask questions or leave comments about Hurricane Gustav.
Tropical Depression 7 forms in Caribbean
From Reuters:
An Air Force Reserve unit's reconnaissance aircraft was expected to investigate the area, about 260 miles southeast of Port au Prince, Haiti, later Monday.
However, based on satellite data and surface observations, the NHC determined that the system had become better organized, and was packing winds near 35 miles per hour.
When wind speeds reach 39 mph, the system will become Tropical Storm Gustav.
Hurricane Gustav 5 Day Cone
Hurricane Gustav 5 Day Cone
TD 7 (Gustav)
Looks like rained soaked Haiti, Cuba, and Florida are in for some more:
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF HAITI.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PORT-AU-PRINCE WESTWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI FROM NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE CARIBBEAN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.1 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES...415 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER SOUTHWESTERN HAITI ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE INTENSE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...15.5 N...70.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.
$$
New system could be a tropical storm at any time
The tropical wave that the NHC has been tracking is looking more organized this morning and it seems they expect it to become a named storm at any time:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
1. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF SANTO DOMINGO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT. WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY.
2. DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
August 22, 2008
Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
The NHC is now watching two areas for potential tropical activity. The one closer to the islands well definitely bring wind and rain with it, even if it doesn't develop into a named storm:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM FAY...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 40 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.
1. A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.
2. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SOME DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 20 TO 25 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
August 21, 2008
Fay still kicking around
Fay is just off the Florida coast and nearly stationary according to the NHC at 5:00 AM EST. The slow movement has intensified flood risk for the Florida communities it will pass through.
There is a disorganized band of weather out in the Atlantic that at the moment does not seem to pose much of a threat.
August 19, 2008
Fay is now Florida's problem
Unfortunately for Floridians this storm now looks like it will cross the state from west to east. I guess the only good news is that it is only a tropical storm and never achieved hurricane status (even though it did unfortunately bring death and destruction to Hispaniola and Cuba). The forecast for this to become a hurricane, after crossing Cuba, always seemed a stretch to me. It isn't too often that a storm can cross so much land and maintain strength - but I guess the meteorologists at the NHC have to rely on their models. Now that Fay is totally out of the Caribbean region, this will probably be our last post on this storm. We are keeping an eye on the other system that is in the open Atlantic now and will follow up on that if anything develops.
August 18, 2008
Fay churns on, another area of concern pops up.
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM FAY...CENTERED ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Tropical Storm Fay update
Tropical Storm Fay is a somewhat weak and scattered mess at the moment, but still forecast to come off the north coast of Cuba at some point and become a hurricane. The track of this storm could definitely change so those in the area should be paying attention:
Fay is already responsible for at least 8 deaths:
One person was killed and three were missing in the Dominican Republic due to the heavy rains Sunday, while thousands of people were evacuated to avoid the storm, local media reported.
In Haiti, the heavy rains killed seven people and left another three missing, civil protection officials told AFP.
August 17, 2008
Fay churns toward Cuban coast, Florida
Fay is on track to cross over Cuba as a tropical storm, and eventually strengthen. Here is a report from Reuters:
The storm was just off Cuba's lightly populated Cabo Cruz, which juts out into the Caribbean Sea, and moving northwest at 13 miles per hour (20 km per hour), the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Florida said.
August 16, 2008
Fay Soaks Haiti Could Hit U.S. As a Hurricane
Tropical Storm Fay leaves 4 dead in Haiti, DR
Sad news from the DR and Haiti - from the AP:
Florida's Gov. Charlie Crist declared a state of emergency and said Fay threatened the state with a "major disaster." Forecasters said Fay could bring hurricane-force winds to the Florida Keys as soon as Monday.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said that on Saturday afternoon the storm was located about 60 miles (100 kilometers) south of Guantanamo, Cuba. It was heading west at about 16 mph (26 kph), and maximum sustained winds had decreased slightly to 40 mph (65 kph).
A man died Saturday in Haiti while trying to cross a river in Leogane, south of Port-au-Prince, said Marie Alta Jean-Baptiste, head of Haiti's civil protection department. No further information was immediately available.
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
...FAY CONTINUING WESTWARD OVER HISPANIOLA...
AT 200 AM AST...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS BEEN EXTENDED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND FOR THE SOUTH COAST EAST OF SAN PEDRO DE MACORIS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM...EAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 260 MILES...415 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL MOVE ACROSS HAITI THIS MORNING...AND WILL BE MOVING NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FAY COULD WEAKEN SOME WHILE MOVING OVER HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND ON SUNDAY AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...18.7 N...71.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST.
August 15, 2008
Tropical Storm Fay Open Thread
Use this post to ask a question or leave a comment about Tropical Storm Fay.
Tropical Storm Fay 5 Day Cone
Tropical Storm Fay 5 Day Cone
GOES Atlantic Floater 1
GOES Atlantic Floater 1
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
Tropical Storm Fay is out there - right now the DR, Haiti, and Cuba need to be concerned:
...TROPICAL STORM FAY FORMS...SIXTH ATLANTIC STORM OF THE SEASON...
REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE MONA PASSAGE BECAME A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVED INTO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND FOR THE SOUTH COAST EAST OF SAN PEDRO DE MACORIS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM GONAIVES NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...EAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 395 MILES...635 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND PASS NEAR OR OVER EASTERN CUBA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY OVER WATER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...18.5 N...69.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST.
Tropical Development Soon?
AccuWeather thinks this current system will become Tropical Storm Fay - soon:
Once away from Hispaniola, this system will probably quickly increase in strength to become Tropical Storm Fay, going from a depression to a tropical storm in mere hours. Also, its track will turn to the northwest, and its forward speed will slow. The southeastern Bahamas will begin to feel its effects Saturday morning. Again, the center of this system may be centered over land at times Saturday, this time the Bahamas. However, the Bahamas are not as large or as mountainous as Hispaniola, so their effects on this storm will not be nearly as strong, and intensification may occur.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008
The system over Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands looks like a tropical storm - guess we will have to wait for the next update from the NHC:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH AND IS LOCATED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A CONCENTRATED AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT... HOWEVER...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.
2. A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
August 11, 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
The NHC is looking at two areas currently that may effect the Caribbean:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 825 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AT THIS TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
2. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
