Caribbean-On-Line » Caribbean Hurricanes » Caribbean Weather News » Tropical Update, Sunday August 31, 2008
August 31, 2008
Tropical Update, Sunday August 31, 2008
As of Sunday morning TS Hanna is looking somewhat disorganized. The NHC has made radical changes to the path of this storm in the last couple of days, and the atmosphere surrounding it seems very unstable - so a lot could still change, from it getting sheared apart, to it becoming better organized again. We'll just have to wait and see what mother nature is up to with this one.
Hurricane Gustav came off of Cuba looking weaker than expected. Any weakness now is good news for the US Gulf Coast:
APPARENTLY...THE INTERACTION WITH WESTERN CUBA TOOK MORE OF A TOLL ON THE HURRICANE THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED. DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER SHOW THAT GUSTAV HAS WEAKENED WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 112 KT...SFMR WINDS OF 98 KT...AND A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 958 MB. SATELLITE IMAGES CONFIRM THIS WEAKENING TREND AS THE EYE NO LONGER VISIBLE. AIRCRAFT AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE EYE HAS EXPANDED TO AROUND 25 N MI IN DIAMETER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 110 KT...AND GUSTAV MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE WEAKER FOR THE MOMENT. HOWEVER THIS WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE HURRICANE TRAVERSES THE RELATIVELY HIGH HEAT CONTENT OF THE GULF LOOP CURRENT. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE HEAT CONTENT DECREASES AND MOST MODELS INCREASE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR GUSTAV DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF. IN ADDITION...NONE OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOW SIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING OF GUSTAV...ALTHOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE SKILL OF THESE MODELS IS RATHER LOW. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE EARLIER ONE...BUT STILL SHOWS GUSTAV AS A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.
