August 2008 | Main | October 2008
September 26, 2008
Tropical Storm Kyle
Tropical Storm Kyle is in the Atlantic - this doesn't look like it will affect the Caribbean at all - although Bermuda may be impacted.
...KYLE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES REGION SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST OR ABOUT 510 MILES...820 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND ON SATURDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF KYLE AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF BERMUDA.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND KYLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM ...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA THROUGH SATURDAY.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...25.6 N...68.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM AST.
September 25, 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2008
This system (#2) is still hanging around -
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE AND HAS NOT YET ACQUIRED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS OCCURS...STRONG WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SURF...AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INTERESTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR STATEMENTS FROM THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES...AND ALSO HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND WARNINGS.
2. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
September 24, 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD. THE LOW IS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR AN AREA OF WINDS TO HURRICANE FORCE WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SURF...AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON D.C. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND WARNINGS. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND THE SYSTEM LACKS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO TODAY AND TONIGHT.
September 23, 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM.
September 22, 2008
High Potential for Tropical Cyclone formation today
Another system that might affect the western Caribbean:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED NEAR WESTERN PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...IT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO TUESDAY. REPORTS FROM PUERTO RICO INDICATE THAT 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN ON PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND...AND THESE RAINS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE DOMINICAN REPBULIC...HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.
September 12, 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008
Ike is the main story at the moment, but this site focusses on Caribbean weather - at the moment the NHC is watching two areas, but neither look to be that significant a threat:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE IKE...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...INCLUDING SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE...IS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Hurricane policies in place for worried travelers
From CNN - some tips from the article:
- Most airlines allow one ticket change without penalty for hurricane-affected fliers
- Airlines outline specific dates and parameters for fee-free changes
- Hotels in hurricane-prone areas usually have re-booking or refund policies in place
- Cruise ships often can be re-routed to avoid major storms
Galveston Evacuating As Ike Nears
September 11, 2008
Galveston Boards Up As Ike Nears
Turks & Caicos is open for business!
We just got a press release from the T&C hotel and tourism board:
More here.
Hurricane Ike Heads Toward Texas, Strengthens in Gulf
From Bloomberg:
Turks Islanders Glad To Be Alive
From the Bahamas Journal:
Many of the seven thousand residents of Grand Turk recounted how they clung to anything and anyone as Ike battered and pummeled the island - ripping off roofs, tossing vehicles and trailers around, and bashing in the walls of many homes.
Wow - they really got hit hard.
Storm-ravaged Grand Turk closed to cruises for now
From the USA Today Cruise Log:
While the island's two-year-old cruise pier, designed to withstand a Category 5 hurricane, appears to have survived intact, just about every other structure on the island suffered damage that in some cases was catastrophic, and it's unlikely cruises will be able to return for some time.
Turks journalist Deandra Hamilton tells the Bahamas Journal this morning that the early reports that 80% to 95% of homes and buildings on the island suffered damage aren't accurate. In fact, it's worse, she says.
September 10, 2008
Photos from the Turks & Caicos II
Some more photos from the Turks & Caicos on these two sites:
http://www.myalbum.com/Album-IQNH3LUA-Photos-of%20-News.html
http://web.me.com/piratesofsaltcay/Site/ike1.html
Hurricane Ike Enters Gulf, Heads for Coast of Texas
From Bloomberg:
Ike's eye was 145 miles (233 kilometers) north of the western tip of Cuba and moving northwest at 8 miles per hour, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said just before 8 a.m. Miami time today. The system's sustained winds strengthened to 85 mph from 80 mph earlier today.
Ike may become a "major hurricane," the center said, a term it uses when wind speeds reach 111 mph. It is forecast to bypass New Orleans and the offshore Louisiana oil and natural gas fields and make landfall on the south-central Texas coast on Sept. 13.
There's "a significant chance that Ike will be the worst hurricane to hit Texas in 40 years," Jeff Masters, the director of meteorology at private forecaster Weather Underground Inc., said. "I am giving it a 50 percent chance of being a major hurricane at landfall."
Hurricane Appeal, British Red Cross
For UK residents who want to help:
More Hurricane Ike video
Audio is in Spanish:
Hurricane Ike update
Hurricane Ike is finally free of Cuba and is showing better organization. The NHC now forecasts Ike to perhaps regain category 3, or possible 4 status (or maybe just category 2). At this point Texas looks most likely for the next landfall of Ike. Oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico are shutting down in anticipation of this storm.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. AN AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER AND THERE ARE NUMEROUS OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS. IKE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND A PORTION OF THE WESTERMOST FLORIDA KEYS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY SAMPLING THE HURRICANE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 963 MB AND SFMR WINDS OF 73 KNOTS. THE MAXIMIUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SO FAR IS 81 KNOTS. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UP TO 75 KNOTS. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT IKE HAS BEGUN TO RECOVER FROM THE MANY HOURS OF INTERACTION WITH LAND. A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS IKE MOVES OVER A COUPLE OF WARM EDDIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOOP CURRENT AND MOVES WITHIN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES IKE A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE BASED ON A BLEND BETWEEN STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL HURRICANE MODELS. HOWEVER...THE INTENISITY FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AND IKE COULD END UP BEING A CATEGORY HIGHER OR LOWER THAN FORECAST.
RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD AND EXPAND WESTWARD FORCING IKE TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT TREE DAYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHWARD TURN WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY INLAND. I HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 24 TO 48 HOUR FORECAST TRACK SINCE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. THEREAFTER...THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT SO HIGH BECAUSE THE MODELS ARE MORE SPREAD OUT...BUT THEY ALL BRING THE HURRICANE ASHORE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
September 9, 2008
AP Photo, Ike in Cuba
A vehicle sits under rubble during heavy rains produced by hurricane Ike in Camaguey, Monday, Sept. 8, 2008. (AP / Javier Galeano)
Ike weakens to a category 1 - track still unsure
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT IKE HAS A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BUT THE INNER CORE OR EYE IS VERY SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED...ABOUT 6 TO 8 NM. THE EYE CAN BE SEEN FROM CUBAN AND KEY WEST RADARS. ALTHOUGH THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN AROUND 963-965 MB...THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS MEASURED SO FAR WERE ONLY 69 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KNOTS ASSUMING THAT THE PLANE HAS NOT SAMPLED THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION...BUT THIS VALUE APPEARS QUITE GENEROUS AT THIS TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...GIVEN THE WELL DEFINED STRUCTURE ON RADAR AND SATELLITE AND THE FACT THAT IKE HAS SEVERAL MORE HOURS OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS SOUTH OF CUBA...THE WINDS WINDS COULD INCREASE SOME NEAR THE CORE BEFORE MOVING OVER WESTERN CUBA. ONCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IKE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE...AND THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER SEVERAL AREAS OF HIGH HEAT CONTENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES IKE A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AND THIS VALUE IS IN BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS.
FIXES FROM CUBAN AND KEY WEST RADARS AS WILL AS PENETRATIONS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE SMALL EYE OF IKE IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS...VERY CLOSE TO THE ZAPATA PENINSULA ON THE SOUTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE SOUTH COAST OF HAVANA PROVINCE SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THEN...THE CENTER SHOULD CROSS WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY. UNFORTUNATELY... IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY NEAR TO WHERE HURRICANE GUSTAV CROSSED CUBA A WEEK OR SO AGO. THE STEERING PATTERN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE AND IKE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN AND SHOULD FORCE IKE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. IN FACT...UNANIMOUSLY...GUIDANCE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND ONCE AGAIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND STILL IS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
IT CANNOT BE OVEREMPHASIZED THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST POINTS SINCE THESE CAN BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL ERRORS. DO NOT FORGET THAT FEW DAYS AGO...THE GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY HAD IKE NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED THE DANGER TOWARD WESTERN CUBA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
Ike kills 4 in Cuba, takes aim at Mexico, US Gulf
From the AP:
Residents in Texas and northern Mexico braced for Ike's next wallop.
Winds howled and heavy rains fell across Havana, where streets were empty of cars and people Tuesday morning.
Cuba, which has carried out well-executed evacuations over the years, ordered hundreds of thousands of people -- more than a tenth of its 11 million people -- to seek safety with friends and relatives or at government shelters, state television reported.
"I feel safe here, above all for my granddaughters who are the most important thing in my life," said Marta Molas, who evacuated to a government shelter in Havana with seven relatives. "They take good care of us, we have television and food. ... When the electricity goes out we have a radio."
Ike Targets Havana As Category 1
September 8, 2008
Photos from the Turks & Caicos
Here is a page with links to photos from Provo on the 7th of September: http://www.wiv.tc/web-ike/index.htm
Ike slams Cuba, readies for another hit
From the AFP:
Nearly two million of Cuba's 11 million population were being evacuated and all 14 provinces were on maximum alert as the storm hammered its way across the southern end of the Caribbean island.
The storm drove seven-meter (23-foot) waves onto Cuba's eastern coastline as it came ashore late Sunday Monday, destroying a yet to-be-counted number of homes.
Cuban authorities said seven people had been injured but none killed in the storm.
"I'm 59, I have seen a lot of hurricanes, but I have never seen one that caused so much destruction," an unnamed resident of Camaguey told Cuban television by phone.
Hurricane Ike Brings 5-story Waves to Cuba
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
Ike has weakened over Cuba, but is forecast to emerge in the Gulf and gain strength again.
CUBAN RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF IKE CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL CUBA. THE EYE IS STILL VISIBLE BUT THE EYEWALL IS NOW ENTIRELY OVER LAND AND ITS STRUCTURE HAS DEGRADED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 90 KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN SHOWS LESS WEAKENING OVER LAND THAN INDICATED BY THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...IN THE EVENT THAT THE CENTER EMERGES OVER WATER SOONER THAN FORECAST. IF IKE FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK IT WILL BE OVER LAND FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND WOULD ALMOST SURELY BE WEAKER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF THAN SHOWN HERE. NEVERTHELESS...THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY CONDUCIVE TO RESTRENGTHENING WITH A VERY DIFLUENT LIGHT SHEAR UPPER WIND PATTERN AND WARM WATERS BELOW. THE MAJOR UNKNOWN IS HOW DISRUPTED IKE WILL BE WHEN IT EMERGES.
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. IKE'S TRAJECTORY IS EXPECTED TO BEND GRADUALLY TO THE RIGHT AS THE STORM NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN CALLING FOR A SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON DAYS 4-5. THE GFDL AND HWRF...WHICH USE THE GFS FOR BOUNDARY CONDITIONS...MAY BE PICKING UP ON THAT AND SHOW A BEND TO THE RIGHT AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...SUCH AS THE ECMWF...SHOW MUCH MORE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT THOSE RANGES AND HAVE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. EVEN THOUGH THE GFDL HAS PERFORMED VERY WELL WITH IKE SO FAR...I'VE CHOSEN NOT TO ADJUST THE TRACK EASTWARD GIVEN THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FIELDS IN THE GFS HAVE NO SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER MODELS. IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO KNOW WHAT PORTION OF THE GULF COAST WILL ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY IKE.
Hurricane Ike weakens over Cuba
From ABC News, image from AFP:
Ike pounded north-east Cuba with 165 kilometres per hour winds, torrential rains and massive waves, and it could slow further to a Category 1 storm on the five-step Saffir-Simpson intensity scale as it runs the 1,125 kilometre island, the US National Hurricane Centre said.
Cuba's state-run television showed angry waves slamming into the sea wall and surging as high as nearby five-story apartment buildings before flooding the streets of the city of Baracoa near the eastern tip of the communist-ruled island.
Hurricane Ike Smashes West Through Caribbean
From the NY Times:
In Haiti, where the fourth-largest city, Gonaïves, remained underwater from Hurricane Gustav, rain fell Sunday and at least 10 more people died of drowning, according to reports from news services. By early Monday the number of people reported killed in Haiti just from the effects of Hurricane Ike reached at least 61, according to news services. The total of those killed in Haiti in the recent storms was in the hundreds.
In Cuba, where relief efforts from Hurricane Gustav were under way in the west, the government evacuated vulnerable communities as the new hurricane bore down on the island with heavy winds and rain that could total 10 inches.
September 7, 2008
More Ike video from the Turks & Caicos
Hurricane Ike, Providenciales, Turks and Caicos
This is not looking good:
Ike update
Just a horrible time for the Turks & Caicos from Ike, parts of the Bahamas, Hispaniola (again) and now Cuba where at about 6:45 PM EST Ike looks to be nearing landfall. The only good news in any of this is that Ike has for the moment weakened slightly.
THE LATEST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INDICATES THAT IKE HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE. THE PLANE FOUND A PEAK SFMR OF 91 KT AND 107 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL. AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE SUGGESTED SURFACE WINDS AROUND 100 KT BUT THE DROP MAY NOT HAVE SAMPLED THE HIGHEST WINDS. WHILE THESE OBSERVATIONS WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY LOWER INTENSITY...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FELL TO 945 MB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED ONLY TO 105 KT. A RECENT SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES AND REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CONFIRM THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL HAS FORMED...BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL COMPLETE PRIOR TO IKE REACHING CUBA. ACCORDINGLY...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ONCE INLAND OVER CUBA...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BUT THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW LONG THE CENTER STAYS OVER LAND. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS IKE INLAND FOR APPROXIMATELY 24-36 HOURS SO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS SHOWN. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OR THE SOUTH COULD RESULT IN THE CENTER OF IKE MOVING BACK OVER WATER SOONER. IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 2 DAYS WHERE THE WATERS ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW. IKE'S POTENTIAL FOR RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL DEPEND ON ITS STRUCTURE ONCE IT EMERGES FROM CUBA.
IKE HAS BEEN WOBBLING WESTWARD DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/12. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH WEAKENS. IN 2-3 DAYS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES CAUSING ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND A REDUCTION IN IKE'S FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW SHOW THE TROUGH BYPASSING IKE TO THE NORTH WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. THIS PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT LEFT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT DAYS 4 AND 5. TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHWARD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT. HOWEVER...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS TOO MUCH ON SMALL CHANGES IN THE TRACK...AND IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO ANTICIPATE WHICH AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM.
The Turks & Caicos seems to have got hit pretty bad - anyone with travel plans there needs to be in contact with wherever it is they were planning to stay. We don't know from news reports yet and I hate to speculate but it is hard to say after a storm like this if things can back to normal in days, weeks, or months. We will just have to wait and see.
Hurricane Ike: Royal Navy heads for Turks and Caicos Islands with aid
From the Times UK:
Killer Ike blasts Bahamas, aims at Cuba
From the AP:
Slamming into the southern Bahamas, Ike bore down on Cuba on a path that could hit Havana head-on, and hundreds of thousands evacuated to shelters or higher ground. To the north, residents of the Florida Keys fled up a narrow highway, fearful that the "extremely dangerous" hurricane could hit them Tuesday.
At least 48 people died as Ike's winds and rain swept Haiti, and a Dominican man was crushed by a falling tree. It was too early to know of deaths on other islands where the most powerful winds were still blowing.
Raw Video: Ike Pounds Turks and Caicos
Ike bears down on Haiti
Ike hits Turks and Caicos
Ike blasts Turks and Caicos as Category 4 storm
From the AP:
Turks and Caicos premier Michael Misick said Ike damaged more than 80 percent of the homes on Grand Turk and South Caicos islands. Hundreds lost their roofs and all the fishermen lost boats as the hurricane made a near-direct hit.
Hundreds took refuge in shelters. Others have been cowering in closets and under stairwells and "just holding on for life. They got hit really, really bad," Misick said Sunday morning. "A lot of people have lost their house, and we will have to see what we can do to accommodate them."
At 8 a.m. EDT, Ike's eye was just east of Great Inagua Island in the southeastern Bahamas, with maximum sustained winds of 135 mph (215 kph). It was moving west-southwest at 14 mph (24 kph) and was expected to remain a major hurricane as it approaches eastern Cuba.
"It's looking terrible," said reserve police officer Henry Nixon from inside a shelter on the Bahamas' Great Inagua Island, where about 85 people huddled around a radio. "All we can do is hunker down and pray."
Raw footage from Haiti
Hard to say when this video was taken - but this is from Hanna, not Ike:
'Extremely dangerous' Ike pounds Turks and Caicos
From CNN:
The outer bands of the storm brought fierce, palm-bending winds and a scattering of rain to the British crown colony that had already been pummeled this week for four days by Tropical Storm Hanna.
"People are losing roofs by the second," said Audley Astwood, a reporter at a radio station in Grand Turk said. "Close to 50 percent of the homes on Grand Turk have been destroyed or lost roofs."
In fact, Astwood said his own home lost its roof and his family was huddled in a bathroom.
Power was out over the whole island of Grand Turk, he said.
'Dangerous' Ike Aims for Turks and Caicos
From before Ike has hit, obviously:
Ike over the Turks & Caicos
This NHC update sounds very ominous:
September 6, 2008
Tropical update, Saturday September 7, 2008
Ike is a major hurricane on the doorstep of the Turks & Caicos - this is a dangerous storm and will be making landfall eventually on Cuba and then perhaps Louisiana (hurts just to write this):
...IKE HEADING TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH 135 MPH WINDS...
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND HOLGUIN.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS... CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
Hanna is racing up the east coast as a tropical storm with 50 MPH winds -
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...ALL OF CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE TIDAL POTOMAC... WASHINGTON D.C...DELAWARE BAY...NEW YORK HARBOR...LONG ISLAND SOUND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
Josephine is just a remnant low now -
Ike threatens battered Haiti
Tourists, residents scramble to flee Caribbean as Ike strengthens
From CNN:
At 5 p.m. ET Saturday, Ike's center was 90 miles east of Grand Turk Island, moving west-southwest at 15 mph.
The British government arranged extra flights to move visitors to Turks and Caicos, a British crown colony, out of harm's way before the Providenciales airport was forced to close about noon.
In the path of Hurricane Ike
'Hundreds' killed by Haiti storm
More horrific news from Haiti:
Many flee Turks and Caicos as 'Ike' approaches
Ike does seem like the type of storm where you should evacuate - the T&C are low lying islands - a direct hit from a hurricane could just about swamp most of the islands I would think. I hope everyone can get out. If you have any travel planned there, it is probably going to be out off by the hotel or resort or whatever if this thing hits like it looks like it is going. I would imagine just about everything at ground level will be flooded. The woman quoted in the article says "I've been here 13 years and Hanna was the strongest thing we've had," Dierin Longmire said as she checked in at the airport. "It shook me up." - well, Ike it looking to be lot worse unfortunately:
Turks and Caicos and the southern Bahamas appeared to be first in line to take a hit from Ike, and many people decided they would be better off elsewhere.
"I don't remember ever seeing a mass exodus like this," said Tracy Paradis, a longtime resident of Providenciales who was heading to Seattle with her 19-month-old twins to wait out the storm.
Hanna-Ike-Josephine storm trio isn't an anomaly
From the LA Times:
"We're in peak season in an active hurricane cycle, and this is one of the results of that," said Dennis Feltgen, a meteorologist and public affairs officer with the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
"We've had incidents where four or five storms have been stacked up."
Tropical Storm Hanna kills more than 130 people in Haiti
Raw footage from the DR of Hanna
Tropical Storm Hanna Charges for Carolinas
Hanna roars ashore
From the AP:
The National Hurricane Center said Hanna came on shore at about 3:20 a.m. Saturday. The storm had winds near 70 mph before it roared onto land.
The storm is expected to race up the Eastern Seaboard and dump heavy rain over the weekend from Virginia to New England.
Emergency officials are already looking past Hanna to Hurricane Ike several hundreds miles out in the Atlantic. Ike is more powerful than Hanna and could be approaching southern Florida by Monday as Hanna spins away over the North Atlantic.
It looks like it is raining all the way up to NJ already -
September 5, 2008
Hanna, Ike update
It looks like Hanna is now an east coast issue - but Ike could come straight through the Turks and Caicos, The Bahamas, and brush by Cuba before turning north towards Florida's west coast. We will keep a close eye on Ike over the weekend. The next update from the NHC is due out soon and we will post that also (you can find the latest in the left hand navigation). For now, here are some news links:
• Fierce Hurricane Ike targets Gulf
• Fierce Hurricane Ike targets Miami, Hanna nears
As usual, there is more news for the US than for the islands which are in the direct path of the storm -
Here are the relevant links to the cruise lines for their updates:
• Carnival
Josephine thankfully looks like it is meandering in the open Atlantic.
TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE from Carnival Cruise Lines
We are closely monitoring the progress of Tropical Storm Hanna and Hurricane Ike. All of Carnival's ships will continue to operate at a safe distance from these storms. Our number one priority is the safety of our guests and crew.
We have made itinerary changes for several departures in order to provide our guests with an enjoyable shore experience, while operating the ships in the safest and most comfortable conditions:
Carnival Miracle: 8/29 departure from New York: The ship will visit Port Canaveral (Mon), Freeport (Tue) and Newport, Rhode Island (Fri).
Carnival Glory: 8/30 departure from Pt. Canaveral: The ship will visit St. Thomas (Tue) and St. Maarten (Wed)
Carnival Liberty: 8/30 departure from Miami: The ship will visit the ports of call in reverse order Ocho Rios (Mon), Grand Cayman (Tue), Cozumel (Thur).
Carnival Conquest: 8/31 departure from Galveston: The ship will visit Progreso, (Tue), Cozumel (Wed) and Grand Cayman (Thur).
Carnival Legend: 8/31 departure from Tampa: The ship will visit Key West (Mon), Cozumel (Wed), Belize (Thur) and Isla Roatan (Fri).
Carnival Triumph: 8/31 departure from Miami: The ship will cancel the calls to Half Moon Cay (Mon) and Grand Turk (Fri); and visit the scheduled ports of call of St. Thomas (Wed) and San Juan (Thur).
Carnival Sensation: 9/4 departure from Port Canaveral: The ship will replace the scheduled call in Nassau with Freeport (Sat.).
We are looking forward to welcoming our guests aboard all of the Carnival "Fun Ships." The officers, staff and crew on each of our ships are dedicated to delivering a great cruise vacation experience.
NCL Tropical Storm Update - September 5, 2008 9:00 am EST
Norwegian Cruise Line is closely monitoring the path of Hurricane Ike and Tropical Storm Hanna as the safety and security of our guests and crew is of the utmost importance.
At this time, we are not altering any of our ships' itineraries. However, we will continue to closely monitor the weather situation and depending on the projected paths of the storms, we may be required to modify some itineraries, including Norwegian Sky's itinerary for Monday, September 8, 2008.
NCL will continue to closely monitor the weather conditions and will update this information as necessary.
Tropical Weather Update from Royal Caribbean, September 4
The safety of our guests and crew members is always our foremost concern.
Given the locations and projected path of Tropical Storm Hanna, we are altering the itineraries of three ships:
Ships sailing from Port Canaveral
Sovereign of the Seas, which departed Port Canaveral Monday, September 1, will sail a revised itinerary. The ship will visit Nassau, Bahamas, Tuesday; and Key West, Florida, Wednesday, spending the night and departing Thursday morning.
The next sailing, departing Port Canaveral Friday, September 5, is expected to sail as scheduled.
Mariner of the Seas, which departed Port Canaveral Sunday, August 31, will sail a modified itinerary. The ship will not visit Coco Cay, Bahamas, Monday, but will makes its scheduled port calls in St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands, Wednesday; and Philipsburg, St. Maarten, Thursday.
Ships sailing from the Port of Miami
Majesty of the Seas, which departed the Port of Miami Monday, September 1, will sail a revised itinerary. The ship will visit Nassau, Bahamas, Tuesday; and visit Key West, Florida, Wednesday, spending the night and departing Thursday evening.
At this time, no other Royal Caribbean International ships are being adversely impacted by tropical weather.
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
The models are not all in agreement about the strength and track, but Ike is a hurricane and will most likely come through the Bahamas as a hurricane:
THE EYE OF IKE HAS LOST A LITTLE OF ITS DEFINITION...AND CLOUD TOPS OF THE EYEWALL HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN SLIGHTLY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 110 KT. MICROWAVE IMAGERY JUST RECEIVED FROM THE AMSR-E DOES NOT REVEAL ANY SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE...NOR DOES IT DEPICT CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...SO RAPID WEAKENING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ABOUT TO OCCUR. THAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL...AND GIVEN THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME WEAKENING IN THE SHORT TERM. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO LESSEN BEYOND 24 HOURS...AS IKE REMAINS OVER WATERS NEAR 29 CELSIUS...SO RESTRENGTHENING IS THEN FORECAST. THE HWRF FORECASTS IKE TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT DAYS 3-5...BUT THE GFDL DOES NOT SINCE ITS TRACK GOES OVER CUBA. MEANWHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM FORECAST A WEAKER HURRICANE...ALTHOUGH THE LGEM PREDICTION APPEARS MORE REALISTIC SINCE IT DOES A BETTER JOB OF TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE EVENTUAL LESSENING OF THE SHEAR. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS OVER WATER THROUGH 96 HOURS...A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND LGEM SEEMS TO BE REASONABLE...AND IKE IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LONGER RANGES. THE ONLY REASON FOR THE WEAKENING AT THE END IS THAT THE FIVE-DAY POINT IS OVER LAND...WHICH IS NOT A CERTAINTY.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE HAS SETTLED IN DIRECTLY NORTH OF IKE...AS THE HIGH-LATITUDE TROUGH DEPARTS ATLANTIC CANADA...AND THE HURRICANE IS NOW HEADED DUE WESTWARD OR 270/13. NEXT TO DEPART THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SCENE WILL BE HANNA...AND ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS SAY THAT IN ITS PLACE THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD TO FLORIDA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. A KEY UNKNOWN FOR THE 3-5 DAY FORECAST IS HOW STRONG THAT RIDGE WILL BE AND HOW LONG IT WILL REMAIN INTACT. IN GENERAL DURING THE LAST DAY OR TWO THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD THE RIDGE STAYING IN PLACE LONGER...RESULTING IN TRACKS MAINTAINING THE GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION LONGER AND DELAYING ANY POTENTIAL TURN TO THE NORTH. THAT TREND HAS CONTINUED SOMEWHAT ON THIS CYCLE...BUT THE CONSENSUS HAS ONLY SHIFTED WEST SLIGHTLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 HOURS...IS JUST NUDGED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS BEYOND THAT TIME...AND GIVES THE MOST WEIGHT TO THE GFS AND HWRF. IT CANNOT BE SAID ENOUGH THAT FIVE-DAY TRACK FORECASTS CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS...AND COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT THE MODEL SPREAD IS STILL NOTABLE BEYOND 72 HOURS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.
Hanna Eyes Coast, Ike Possibly Following
Relief Web
Relief Web is:
They have a lot of good, up to date information on their site, and documents about what happens after these storms pass, and how you can help.
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
The good news on Hanna from our perspective is that it is finally clear of the Caribbean islands, the Turks & Caicos, and nearly clear of the Bahamas. That is our focus here since we are a Caribbean travel website. Unfortunately, the east coast of the US now has to deal with this storm - the good news for them is that it seems that it will not regain hurricane strength. I can imagine property damage, but hopefully there won't be any loss of life in the US like there was in Haiti with all this time to prepare.
A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY SAMPLING HANNA RECENTLY FOUND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 73 KT. THIS WOULD NORMALLY CORRESPOND TO SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 60 KT USING THE STANDARD REDUCTION. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WERE FOUND IN AN AREA ABSENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ONLY SHOWED ABOUT 51 KT IN THE SAME AREA. IN ADDITION...A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE AREA HAD A SURFACE WIND OF 57 KT. THESE DATA SUGGEST THE INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR 55 KT. HANNA HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO GENERATE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER DUE TO SHEAR AND DRY AIR...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT BURST WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WHILE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...ALL BUT ONE OF THE INTENSITY MODELS KEEP HANNA JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. STILL...THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...AND HANNA COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
HANNA IS BEING STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RESULTING IN A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320/17. HANNA IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH TODAY THEN NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THEREAFTER...HANNA IS EXPECTED TO RACE NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. TRACK MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD THE WEST AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT THROUGH 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN HANNA'S LARGE SIZE...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AS THE INCLEMENT WEATHER EXTENDS WELL BEYOND THE CENTER.
September 4, 2008
Hanna, Ike and Josephine: Triple Storm Threat
This isn't that old, but the NHC seems to think that Hanna will not become a hurricane again. Also - Ike will probably weaken a bit, and they describe it here as a "monster" storm when in fact at this point the footprint of Ike is rather small for a category 4 storm. Sort of distressing that they have to hype the news like this and can't just report the facts. And no mention in this report of the number of dead in Haiti - just the phrase "wreaked havoc":
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF IKE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. IKE IS MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED EYE...THOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOME IN THE EYEWALL RECENTLY. IT IS INTERESTING THAT WHILE IKE STARTED OUT AS A LARGE SYSTEM...THE CLOUD CANOPY HAS NOTICEABLY SHRUNK TODAY WITH FEW OUTER BANDS. THERE HAS BEEN ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY TO 115 KT. STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL RESPONDS TO THE SHEAR BY WEAKENING THIS SYSTEM TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...THOUGH THE GFDL/HWRF ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER. IN A COUPLE DAYS...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND...COMBINED WITH RATHER WARM WATER WATERS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...SHOULD RESULT IN RESTRENGTHENING. THE HURRICANE'S EXACT TRACK IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT COULD BE IMPACTED BY COOLER WATERS UPWELLED BY HANNA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS A LITTLE LOWER FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS. IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12...SLOWER THAN BEFORE AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT. RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE... CAUSING A WEST...AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION OF IKE BY LATE TOMORROW. THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING BETWEEN IKE AND HANNA WILL BE CRITICAL TO WHEN AN EVENTUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR IN THE LONG-RANGE. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE WESTWARD SHIFT IN ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY...WITH THE GFDL/ECMWF EVEN TAKING THE SYSTEM AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS CUBA. THE OTHER MODELS ARE PRETTY CLUSTERED ON A TRACK NEAR OR THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE HWRF MODEL.
ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST POSITIONS BECAUSE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THOSE TIMES.
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING HANNA IS FINDING THE CIRCULATION CENTER AT 850 MB DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MEAN CENTER OF ROTATION APPARENT IN THE LOW CLOUD LINES. THERE ARE ALSO MULTIPLE SWIRLS...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS JUMPED A LITTLE BIT TO THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY. ALTHOUGH A COUPLE MORE SHIFTS ARE POSSIBLE...THE ORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME...THAT IS...MORE ALONG THE TRACK...AND THEN HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT ON THE TRACK. THE BASIC FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT LEFTWARD SHIFT...AND IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
RECONNAISSANCE DATA THUS FAR DO NOT SUPPORT ANY INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY AIR IMPINGING ON HANNA FROM THE SOUTHEAST...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH A LITTLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...NONE OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE MODELS NOW MAKE HANNA A HURRICANE AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW TOPS OUT AT 60 KT. HURRICANE WATCHES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT HANNA BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST...AND PEOPLE ARE REMINDED THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A MINIMAL HURRICANE.
In pictures: Haiti reels from storms
Some photos from Haiti here from the BBC.
Hanna looking weaker - for now
From the NHC:
It looks like there just isn't any more moisture around in the atmosphere for Hanna to get a hold of - the storm still looks pretty organized in the satellite images.
Carnival Cruise Lines tropical update
We are closely monitoring the progress of Tropical Storm Hanna and Hurricane Ike. All of Carnival's ships will continue to operate at a safe distance from this storm at all times. Our number one priority is the safety of our guests and crew.
We have made some itinerary changes for several departures this week in order to provide our guests with an enjoyable shore experience, while operating the ships in the safest and most comfortable conditions possible. These are listed below:
Carnival Ecstasy Wed., 9/3 departure from Galveston: The ship will sail on a 3 Day Cruise-To-Nowhere
Carnival Fantasy Thur., 8/28 departure from Mobile: The ship was delayed arriving back into Mobile. The U.S. Coast Guard would not allow any ship traffic to enter the Port until they had completed a full evaluation of the impact from Hurricane Gustav to the channel and important navigation aids. We expect the Carnival Fantasy to dock in Mobile at about 5:00 PM.
Carnival Fantasy Wed., 9/3 departure from Mobile: The ship will sail on a 4 Day Cruise visiting Progreso, Yucatan (Fri) and returning Sun., 9/7
Carnival Miracle Fri., 8/29 departure from New York: The ship will visit Port Canaveral (Mon), Freeport (Tue) and Newport, Rhode Island (Fri)
Carnival Inspiration Sat., 8/30 departure from Tampa: The ship will visit Cozumel (Tue)
Carnival Glory Sat., 8/30 departure from Pt. Canaveral: The ship will visit St. Thomas (Tue) and St. Maarten (Wed)
Carnival Liberty Sat., 8/30 departure from Miami: The ship will visit the ports of call in reverse order Ocho Rios (Mon), Grand Cayman (Tue), Cozumel (Thur)
Carnival Conquest Sun. 8/31 departure from Galveston: The ship will visit Progreso, Yucatan (Tue), Cozumel (Wed) and Grand Cayman (Thur).
Carnival Legend Sun. 8/31 departure from Tampa: The ship will visit Key West (Mon), Cozumel (Wed), Belize (Thur) and Isla Roatan (Fri)
Carnival Sensation Sun. 8/31 departure from Port Canaveral: The ship will shorten her call to Nassau (Tue) to 5:00 PM instead of staying overnight until Wednesday 6:00 AM
Carnival Triumph Sun. 8/31 departure from Miami: The ship will cancel her call to Half Moon Cay (Mon) and Grand Turk (Fri) and visit the scheduled ports of call of St. Thomas (Wed) and San Juan (Thur)
We are looking forward to welcoming our guests aboard all of the Carnival "Fun Ships". The officers, staff and crew on each of our ships are dedicated to delivering a great cruise vacation experience.
Celebrity Cruises
Celebrity Cruises says:
The safety of our guests and crew members is always our foremost concern.
Currently, Celebrity Cruises has no ships sailing in the Caribbean and will not have to alter any itineraries due to tropical weather.
Royal Caribbean Tropical Weather Update
This is from yesterday:
The safety of our guests and crew members is always our foremost concern.
Given the location and projected path of Tropical Storm Hanna, we are altering the itinerary of four ships:
Ships sailing from Port Canaveral
UPDATE -- Sovereign of the Seas, which departs Port Canaveral Friday, September 5, is expected to sail as scheduled. Guests booked on this sailing should continue to monitor these postings for further updates.
Sovereign of the Seas, which departed Port Canaveral Monday, September 1, will sail a revised itinerary. The ship will visit Nassau, Bahamas, Tuesday; and Key West, Florida, Wednesday, spending the night and departing Thursday morning.
Mariner of the Seas, which departed Port Canaveral Sunday, August 31, will sail a modified itinerary. The ship will not visit Coco Cay, Bahamas, Monday, but will makes its scheduled port calls in St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands, Wednesday; and Philipsburg, St. Maarten, Thursday.
Ships sailing from the Port of Miami
Majesty of the Seas, which departed the Port of Miami Monday, September 1, will sail a revised itinerary. The ship will visit Nassau, Bahamas, Tuesday; and visit Key West, Florida, Wednesday, spending the night and departing Thursday evening.
Liberty of the Seas, which departed the Port of Miami Saturday, August 30, will sail a revised itinerary, with its ports of call simply reordered. The ship will visit Labadee, Haiti, Monday; San Juan, Puerto Rico, Tuesday; and Philipsburg, St. Maarten, Wednesday.
At this time, no other Royal Caribbean International ships are being adversely impacted by tropical weather.
We will continue to closely monitor weather conditions and will update this information Wednesday, September 4, at 10:30 a.m.
But their itinerary update page says, "There are currently no significant itinerary changes.".
Norwegian Cruise Lines update
We were in touch with Norwegian Cruise Lines this morning and their spokesperson says that they:
So this news is up to date as of 10:40 AM EST. The two NCL ships mentioned in the Cruise Critic article from yesteday already had their itineraries changed before they left port.
Cruise Line update
I wish I had more news, and I am somewhat surprised that the cruise lines aren't making it easier to find on their websites. We have an inquiry in with RCL and are searching the web for more. I would advise anyone traveling a Bahamas, Bermuda, DR route to call their cruise line company and make sure you have the latest.
There is a story on this website but it is from yesterday:
In the latest change, Royal Caribbean said two Florida-based ships that normally stop at CocoCay, the line's private island in the Bahamas, will instead head to Key West, Florida this week.
Mariner of the Seas also is skipping CocoCay this week but will not substitute another port.
The ship will go ahead with its scheduled calls in St.Thomas and St. Maarten.
Another Royal Caribbean ship, Liberty of the Seas, based in Miami, also is being affected by the storm, stating that it is switching the order of its port calls.
Also switching gears due to Hanna, is Norwegian Cruise Line's New York based Norwegian Spirit, which is heading to Bermuda this week instead of the Bahamas.
Another Norwegian ship, the Miami-based Norwegian Sky, will skip the Bahamas in favour of the Western Caribbean.
Ah - here you go - Cruise Critic has a page with updates.
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
LOOKS CAN CERTAINLY BE DECEIVING. HANNA HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING VERY MUCH DEEP CONVECTION SINCE AN EARLIER STRONG BURST DIED AFTER ABOUT 04Z...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST CONTINUES TO IMPOSE STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR. NEVERTHELESS...HANNA HAS A LARGE AND ROBUST CIRCULATION...AND A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 990 MB. FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB HAVE BEEN AS STRONG AS 65 KT...AND NUMEROUS SFMR VALUES OF 55-60 KT HAVE BEEN RETRIEVED. I HAVE NO GOOD REASON TO DISCOUNT THE SFMR WINDS...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT. GIVEN THAT THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO PERSIST OVER HANNA EVEN AS IT GAINS LATITUDE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...STRENGTHENING WOULD AT FIRST GLANCE SEEM UNLIKELY. CONSISTENT WITH THAT THINKING...THE GFDL AND HWRF SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OR EVEN SOME WEAKENING...EXCEPT MUCH LATER WHEN HANNA BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE SHIPS AND LGEM...DESPITE DIAGNOSING LITTLE CHANGE IN SHEAR...FORECAST A LITTLE STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STATUS. A CONSENSUS OF THESE VARIOUS MODELS WOULD YIELD A FLAT 60 KT INTENSITY FORECAST UNTIL HANNA PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE CAROLINAS...BUT FOR CONTINUITY AND SINCE HANNA IS ALREADY PRODUCING WINDS JUST SHY OF HURRICANE STRENGTH....65 KT IS STILL SHOWN EXPLICITLY IN THE FORECAST. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS THEN FORECAST AS HANNA ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.
DESPITE HAVING AIRCRAFT FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION IS HARD TO GAGE...PROBABLY DUE TO THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/10. HANNA SHOULD ROUND THE BUILDING WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND ROUGHLY HUG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...BUT PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ALONG THE WAY. PERHAPS DUE IN PART TO THE BENEFIT OF DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET MISSION LAST NIGHT...THE LATEST MODEL TRACKS HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE TIGHTER AGREEMENT...AND IN GENERAL THEY HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...TO BE CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS. AS ALWAYS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST OF THE CENTER...ESPECIALLY SINCE MUCH OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA IS WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.
Ike is now a major hurricane
...IKE EVEN STRONGER AS IT CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.8 WEST OR ABOUT 550 MILES...885 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT LAND AREAS MIGHT EVENTUALLY BE AFFECTED BY IKE.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IKE HAS INTENSIFIED SOME MORE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. IT IS EXPECTED THAT IKE WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORY FOUR OR CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.
Tropical Storm Hanna Batters Haiti; Ike Strengthens
This is really horrible news from Haiti - I see we are sending a billion dollars to Georgia to help them recover - are we doing anything in Haiti?
"I don't know how much longer we will remain alive," Germain Michelet, a priest who is stranded by floodwaters on the second floor of a building in Gonaives, told AFP. "If we are forced to go through another night under these conditions, there will not be many survivors."
After Gustav, Two More Storms Take Aim at U.S.
This piece is a little dated already - we know now that Ike is a major hurricane:
September 3, 2008
Tropical storm Ike grows into Atlantic hurricane
From Reuters:
The storm was moving west-northwest on a path that would take it north of the Leeward Islands by Friday. It was too early to tell whether it would threaten the United States or the oilfields in the Gulf of Mexico.
Hanna death toll climbs to 26
From the Herald Sun:
Officials said thousands of people here were left homeless or with damaged dwellings following the storm.
Meanwhile, the neighbouring Dominican Republic, which shares the island of Hispaniola with Haiti, evacuated more than 7500, but suffered no loss of life, officials said.
Among the hardest hit areas was Gonaives, a city of of 300,000 north of Port-au-Prince, which was left totally submerged after being drenched by Hanna's torrential rains.
"The situation in Gonaives is extremely urgent. I appeal for help," said the city's mayor Stephen Moise.
Hanna Hammers Haiti
Ike is a hurricane
This is not looking like good news for the Turks & Caicos and Bahamas at the moment. Ike is now a hurricane, and the already double drenched T&C Islands seem to be pretty close to the latest projected path.
AS ANTICIPATED...IKE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AND ALL SATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATES SAY IT HAS BECOME A HURRICANE. SINCE THE 1800 UTC DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KT...AN EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN LATE-DAY VISIBLE IMAGERY...SO THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT. THE CYCLONE IS INTENSIFYING WITHIN A COCOON OF NEARLY ZERO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...IN BETWEEN THE DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLIES ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE EASTERN TROUGH ARE STARTING TO JUST SLIGHTLY RESTRICT IKE'S OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO INCREASE FROM THE EAST...BUT PROBABLY NOT QUICKLY ENOUGH TO HALT IKE'S INTENSIFICATION TREND IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS AN INTERMEDIATE INTENSITY PEAK AT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE SHEAR...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT WEAKENING UNTIL THE SHEAR ABATES AFTER IKE GETS FARTHER WEST. BY THAT TIME...IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...OCEAN AND ATMOSPHERIC FACTORS BECOME QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS GFDL AND HWRF...FORECAST A MAJOR HURRICANE BY DAYS 4 AND 5...WHICH IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE RATHER UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER...AND THE INTENSITY PROBABILITY TABLE INCLUDED IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE INDICATES THAT THERE IS ROUGHLY A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IKE WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE FOUR AND FIVE DAYS FROM NOW. IF IKE IS WEAKER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT DAYS 3-5...THEN THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS SHIPS AND LGEM WILL TURN OUT TO BE MORE ACCURATE.
THE HURRICANE CONTINUES HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290/16. AS THE LARGE AND DEEP-LAYER LOW CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL PUSH IKE GENERALLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UNDULATIONS IN THE TRACK ARE LIKELY THOUGH. IKE SHOULD CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE FORMS...AFTER WHICH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY ROUND THAT RIDGE. THE BIG QUESTION AT LONGER RANGES IS IF AND WHEN IKE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THAT RIDGE...WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER IKE DIRECTLY AFFECTS ANY LAND AREAS. THE MODELS DO NOT PROVIDE AN UNANIMOUS ANSWER...WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. ALL OF THE MODELS DO SHOW THE BEGINNINGS OF A MOTION NORTH OF DUE WEST BY DAY 5...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THIS IS THE START OF RECURVATURE...OR IF ENOUGH RIDGING WILL REMAIN BEYOND DAY 5 TO KEEP IKE MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD.
Report from the Turks & Caicos on Hanna
The bloggers we mentioned the other day just made a new post - they got hit "pretty hard":
We've lost our Cay Lime - the photo of Gringo checking up on her is probably the last you will see. Those docks you see in the photo completely let go and at least a dozen nice boats were lost. More details on the next post.
Not too sure when we'll be able to touch base again. Hanna is on her way back and we're looking down the line at Ike which all by all predictions will cruise right over us.
We are currently on borrowed eletricity just to let everyone know we are ok and recharge some things. Then we'll be headed back out to our place.
thanks for the prayers and comments!!
Living in the tropics isn't just sunshine and cocktails - at least they are okay!
Turks & Caicos Hanna photos
We found some photos of the Turks & Caicos from September 2:
Hanna to move across Bahamas
From CNN:
At 11 a.m. ET, the storm was about 95 miles east-southeast of Great Inagua Island in the Bahamas, the National Hurricane Center said.
Hanna's winds were at 60 mph, but it was expected to strengthen and could regain hurricane status by Thursday, the center said.
The storm's erratic path frustrated meteorologists who'd like to narrow their predictions of where it will hit the U.S.
Hanna expected to move over the Bahamas
From the AP:
But Hanna was expected to begin moving over the Bahamas later in the day.
A day earlier, Hanna added to the misery in Haiti, a country still recovering from drenchings by Hurricane Gustav and Tropical Storm Fay in the past two weeks.
In all, floods and mudslides from the three storms have killed more than 100 people as Haiti's deforested hills melted away in torrential rains.
Families screamed for help from rooftops Tuesday in a flooded city as U.N. peacekeepers and rescue convoys tried in vain to reach them.
By Tuesday night, Hanna claimed 21 lives in Haiti, including 12 dead in the state containing the cutoff city of Gonaives, said Marie Alta Jean-Baptiste of the country's civil protection office in Port-au-Prince, the capital.
5:00 AM Updates
The 5:00 AM EST updates are out from the NHC - you can find them in the links on the left. Hanna looks like she will not regain hurricane strength before making landfall, possibly in South Carolina.
September 2, 2008
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
JOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A RATHER IMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH THE INFRARED CLOUD TOPS ARE STILL NOT ALL THAT COLD...WITH SOLID AND FAIRLY SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE BANDING AND WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS. LACKING ACTUAL WIND DATA ANYWHERE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 45 KT. SOME DVORAK ESTIMATES AND AN EARLIER AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE SUGGEST THE STORM COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER...BUT WE CAN WAIT UNTIL THE VARIOUS ESTIMATES PERHAPS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. NEVER MIND THE DETAILS...JOSEPHINE APPEARS POISED TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER RATHER WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 28 CELSIUS...AND THE WATERS WILL REMAIN THAT WARM FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COMBINE THAT WITH THE COMPLETE ABSENCE OF WIND SHEAR...AND STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM. ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE HWRF FORECAST A HURRICANE...AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS IS AT 65 KT AT 24 HOURS. THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST... WHICH IS AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A WEAKENING TREND AT DAYS 3-5...HOWEVER...IN RESPONSE TO JOSEPHINE PASSING OVER COOLER SSTS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. GIVEN THIS GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A WEAKER CYCLONE AT FIVE DAYS...AND EVEN 55 KT IS ABOVE NEARLY ALL OF THE MODEL PREDICTIONS.
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTHWEST OF JOSEPHINE IS USHERING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 290/12. MODELS ARE CLUSTERED FAIRLY TIGHTLY AROUND THIS SAME HEADING AND SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST A FASTER MOTION THAT EVENTUALLY BECOMES NORTHWESTWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP-LAYER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE EITHER SLOWER OR FARTHER SOUTH. SINCE THE GFDL AND HWRF SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE INITIAL MOTION...THOSE SOLUTIONS ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
Ike described as "chugging away":
AFTER LOOKING CONVECTIVELY ASYMMETRIC THIS MORNING...IKE HAS WRAPPED A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION MOST OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER EXCEPT FOR SMALL BREAK OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. CONSEQUENTLY... DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RISEN TO 3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE.
IKE CONTINUES TO CHUG ALONG WITHIN THE TRADES AT 280/15. THE MID-LEVEL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED NORTH-NORTHEAST OF IKE...STEERING IT WESTWARD...IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC AND RESULT IN VERY LITTLE POLEWARD MOTION IN THE COMING DAYS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CLUSTERED THROUGH DAY 5...THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE FROM THIS MORNING IS THE TRACK OF THE UKMET... WHICH CURVES IKE TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 65W IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKER WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISREGARDS THE UKMET AND FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS...SHOWING A SLIGHT SOUTH-OF-DUE-WEST MOTION IN ABOUT 48-72 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE EXACT STEERING REGIME AT DAY 5 REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RECONCILES THIS BY SHOWING A MORE OR LESS WESTWARD TRACK WITHIN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY AGREEABLE IN THE SHORT-TERM... BRINGING IKE TO A HURRICANE WITHIN ABOUT 12 HOURS. BEYOND THAT...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE A BIT RESERVED AND SHOW PEAK INTENSITIES OF 70-80 KT BEFORE MODEST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SETS IN BY 48 HOURS. THE HWRF MODEL IS WELL ABOVE ALL THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND IN GENERAL ITS SOLUTION IS NOT COUNTED AT THIS TIME. STILL...THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE REASON THAT INTENSIFICATION SHOULD NOT OCCUR SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS AND LGEM...BUT IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND NEAR THE GFDL.
Hanna may just blow apart
According to the latest from the NHC there is a slight chance Hanna may not get herself together again - not as a hurricane at least:
Hurricane Hanna Poses Threat to U.S.
Hanna May Regain Hurricane Strength, Aim at East U.S.
The system weakened to a tropical storm today and drenched the Bahamas and the island of Hispaniola, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said on its Web site. Two tropical storms trailed Hanna further out in the Atlantic. Ike formed yesterday and Josephine became the season's 10th named system today, the center said.
"Some strengthening is possible on Wednesday and Thursday" for Hanna, the Miami-based center said. "Hanna will move over the southeastern Bahamas tonight and into the central Bahamas tomorrow."
The center's computer models project Hanna will become a hurricane again within the next two days and approach the northeast coast of Florida on Sept. 5.
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
So Hanna was affected by shear and is blown apart a bit. The NHC discussion doesn't sound too confident of whether it will actually get back to hurricane strength or not but it is possible. Either way it is dumping a ton of rain on the area and still needs to be watched closely.
HANNA HAS FINALLY SUCCUMBED TO THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A SHRINKING CDO FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THIS MIGHT BE A BIT GENEROUS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE HANNA THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE A BETTER INTENSITY ESTIMATE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP EDGE OR DEFORMATION AXIS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CIRRUS CANOPY SUGGESTING THAT THE SHEAR WILL PERSIST IN THE SHORT-TERM...AND SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SHEAR WEAKENING AND THIS COULD ALLOW HANNA TO RESTRENGTHEN. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW HOW MUCH STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT SHOWS HANNA BECOMING A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IN FACT...IF ONE CONSULTS THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INCLUDED IN THIS PACKAGE...IT CAN BE SEEN THAT THERE IS NEARLY AN EQUAL PROBABILITY OF HANNA BEING A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE AT DAY 3.
HANNA CONTINUES TO MEANDER BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF AN INITIAL MOTION IS 250/05. SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT HANNA SHOULD START MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LIFTS NORTHWARD AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN. HANNA SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD AT DAYS 2 TO 3 AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...HANNA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... GEORGIA...OR SOUTH CAROLINA IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT THE EXPECTED ANGLE OF APPROACH AND TRACK UNCERTAINTY MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE TO NARROW DOWN THE POTENTIAL IMPACT AREA. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND ALONG THE ENTIRE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
So Josephine is pretty organized and could intensify rapidly to a point - and then the various computer models tend to disagree as to what happens. We need to keep and eye on this one.
VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN THE CYCLONE'S ORGANIZATION...WITH VERY WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND EVEN A DECEPTIVE CENTRAL FEATURE DISGUISED AS AN EYE. THE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD IN THE INFRARED...BUT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 35 KT...SO THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM...THE TENTH OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON. JOSEPHINE IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 28 CELSIUS...AND THE WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL REMAIN AT LEAST THAT WARM FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND SHEAR IS ESSENTIALLY NON-EXISTENT OVER THE CYCLONE...SO STEADY STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM...AND COULD BE RAPID GIVEN THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION AND THAT THE SHIPS-BASED RI INDEX GIVES A 50% CHANCE OF AN INTENSITY INCREASE OF 30 KT OR MORE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND 24 HOURS...JOSEPHINE WILL TRAVERSE SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS...AND DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY INCREASE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. EVEN THOUGH ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A WEAKENING TREND TO START BY 72 HOURS...TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SIMPLY SHOWS AN INTENSITY PLATEAU AT 60 KT IN THE LONGER TERM.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS BRISK ALONG A HEADING JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST...OR 280/13...BUT THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS. A MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IS CURRENTLY THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM...BUT THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO PROCEED WESTWARD AND SHIFT TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN A FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE...THE DEEP-LAYER LOW JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND ERODE THE RIDGE NORTH OF JOSEPHINE...WHICH WILL PROBABLY JUST CAUSE A SLIGHT BEND TO THE RIGHT AND A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION AT DAYS 3-5. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT THEN DIVERGE MARKEDLY...WITH THE GFS TURNING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD AND THE GFDL AND HWRF TAKING IT NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS...WHICH IS JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
Tropical Storm Josephine Open Thread
Use this post to ask questions or post comments about Tropical Storm Josephine.
Eastern Atlantic Infrared Image
Tropical Storm Josephine 5 Day Cone
TD 10
If TD 10 does (and it is forecast to) become a named storm it will be "Josephine".
...HANNA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
Looks like Hanna has not been able to hold up against the shear and other atmospheric forces for the moment.
...HANNA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTING THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND HAITI...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST OR VERY NEAR GREAT INAGUA ISLAND AND ABOUT 385 MILES...615 KM...SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.
HANNA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER...HANNA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...HANNA WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TODAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HANNA COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN CUBA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING MUDSLIDES AND FLASH FLOODING.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...21.2 N...73.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.
Surface wind field of Hurricane Hanna
In the image below you can see how Hanna has been meandering southward:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LARGE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND FEATURES TO BE CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T2.0/30 KT AND T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/14. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW A LITTLE BIT AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 30N-40 LONGITUDE IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY 72-96 HOURS...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO SLOWLY BUILD BACK IN AND TURN THE CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A POLEWARD BIAS BY THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO DUE TO A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. HOWEVER...BY 36-48 HOURS...ALL OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OF 20-30 KT WILL DEVELOP...WHICH COULD DISRUPT OR EVEN HALT THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS. SOME OF THE MODELS LIKE THE GFS COMPLETELY DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE...WHICH SEEMS UNREASONABLE AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE LARGE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THEN HIGHER AT 96 AND 120 HOURS DUE TO THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF 20N LATITUDE OVER WARMER WATER AND UNDER LESS SHEAR THAN THE SHIPS MODEL IS DEPICTING.
Tropical Update, Monday September 2, 2008
Here is our update on the current named storms:
Gustav is winding down over land - it will probably be a TD when the NHC comes out with their morning update:
Hanna seems to have drifted to the south a bit - it must be soaking the Turks & Caicos islands. It is also closer to Cuba and Hispaniola which can not be good news for those islands that are already drenched. Max sustained winds are 70 miles an hour. The NHC still has this heading north west at some point soon. Only time will tell.
Ike is making a brisk move westward:
AN AMSU PASS AT 0020Z PROVIDED SOME CONFIDENCE IN ESTIMATING A TRACK AT 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE MOVING BRISKLY OFF TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.
And... TD 10 (!) has formed way out in the open Atlantic:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 23.9W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
You can find all the latest NHC updates on these systems in the left hand navigation on the Hurricane blog home page.
In short - the Turks & Caicos, the Bahamas, Cuba, Hispaniola, and the US east coast from Florida to at least South Carolina need to be on alert for these next couple of storms - Hanna and Ike. TD 10 is a little too far out yet but the initial path looks to take it towards Ike's path if not a little more to the north. Again though, it is early and you never know. The NHC didn't have the jog to the south for Gustav that took it to the south coast of Jamaica, and they also had not imagine Hanna stalling around the T&C for a couple of days. The models do what they can - but every scenario is a new one. The only thing we know for sure is that the hurricane season is in full swing. Stay safe.
Hurricane Hanna threatens US southeast coast
From the AP:
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Ike emerged as a new threat in the open sea, as the National Hurricane Center in Miami monitored three weaker weather systems moving westward across the Atlantic.
Hanna, with maximum sustained winds near 80 mph (130 kmh), lingered for much of the day near Mayaguana and nearby islands in the southeast Bahamas.
There were no immediate reports of injuries or major damage, but emergency teams were standing by and would begin assessing the situation once the storm has cleared, said Stephen Russell, interim director of the Bahamas National Emergency Management Agency.
"I'm quite certain there is going to be damage, particularly in Mayaguana," he said.
Hanna also was bringing strong winds, heavy rain and pounding surf to nearby islands, including Inagua and Crooked Island, and Turks and Caicos Islands to the south. It was expected to hit the southeastern U.S. later in the week.
So it looks like Hanna basically was stalled yesterday and just got stronger and stronger as it sat there. Will be interesting to see just what direction this thing takes off into.
NY Times Gustav coverage
Here is a good feature from the NY Times on Gustav as it hit Louisiana.
2 GRINGOS IN THE CARIBBEAN
Here is a blog, "2 GRINGOS IN THE CARIBBEAN", from a couple in the Turks & Caicos. They have a lot of photos up and have been blogging about Hanna. (Of course technically the T&C are not in the Caribbean - they are in the Atlantic Ocean... but I bet they know that now after living there for a couple of years - it is mistake a lot people make.)
September 1, 2008
Disney Cruise Line Special Message
As of Monday, September 1, 2008
The safety of our guests and crew is always our first priority at Disney Cruise Line and we are closely monitoring Hurricane Hanna through the National Weather Service.
At this time, we have not made any changes to the September 4th voyage of the Disney Wonder.
Should weather conditions change, our Captain can alter the ship's course or itinerary for the safety and well being of our guests.
Tropical Weather Update from Royal Caribbean
Royal Caribbean International continues to closely monitor the path and progress of Hurricane Hanna to ensure our guests enjoy safe and comfortable cruises, and to make certain our ships steer clear of the storm.
The safety of our guests and crew members is always our foremost concern.
Given the location and projected path of Hurricane Hanna, we are altering the itinerary of four ships:
Ships sailing from Port Canaveral
Sovereign of the Seas, which departs Port Canaveral Monday, September 1, will sail a revised itinerary. The ship will visit Nassau, Bahamas, Tuesday; and Key West, Florida, Wednesday, spending the night and departing Thursday morning.
Mariner of the Seas, which departs Port Canaveral Sunday, August 31, will sail a modified itinerary. The ship will not visit Coco Cay, Bahamas, Monday, but will makes its scheduled port calls in St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands, Wednesday; and Philipsburg, St. Maarten, Thursday.
Ships sailing from the Port of Miami
Majesty of the Seas, which departs the Port of Miami Monday, September 1, will sail a revised itinerary. The ship will visit Nassau, Bahamas, Tuesday; be at sea Wednesday and visit Key West, Florida, Thursday.
Liberty of the Seas, which departs the Port of Miami Saturday, August 30, will sail a revised itinerary, with its ports of call simply reordered. The ship will visit Labadee, Haiti, Monday; San Juan, Puerto Rico, Tuesday; and Philipsburg, St. Maarten, Wednesday.
At this time, no other Royal Caribbean International ships are being adversely impacted by tropical weather.
We will continue to closely monitor weather conditions and will update this information Tuesday, September 2, at 10:30 a.m.
Tropical Weather Notice from NCL
Norwegian Cruise Line is closely monitoring the path of Tropical Storm Hanna as the safety and security of our guests and crew is of the utmost importance.
Because of the current expected path of Tropical Storm Hanna, forecasted to pass near the islands of the Bahamas, NCL has altered the itinerary of Norwegian Spirit's six-day Bahamas & Florida sailing, departing New York on August 31, 2008. Norwegian Spirit will now call on the island of Bermuda for this sailing.
NCL has also altered the itinerary for Norwegian Sky's four-day Bahamas sailing, departing Miami on September 1, 2008. The ship will sail a Western Caribbean itinerary, with stops in Cozumel, Mexico and Key West, Fla.
NCL will update this information as necessary. We thank our guests for their cooperation and understanding.
Hurricanes Gustav and Hanna disrupt cruise plans in the Caribbean
Check out this article from the LA Times if you have any cruise plans:
Hanna Heading Toward Southeast Coast
Tropical Storm Ike forms, seen growing into hurricane
From Reuters:
Ike was churning across the Atlantic on the heels of Hurricane Gustav, which pounded New Orleans on Monday as it came ashore on the U.S. Gulf Coast, and Hurricane Hanna, which strengthened as it neared the south-eastern Bahamas islands.
The peak of the six-month Atlantic hurricane season usually occurs around September 10, and an average season spawns 10 tropical storms. Six of those strengthen into hurricanes.
Ike's formation, and the possibility of another tropical depression developing in its wake in the coming days, means the storm activity this year is well above normal, bad news for U.S. oil and natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico and for the millions living in the Caribbean and on U.S. coasts.
Tropical Round Up
So you got out for a couple of hours and look what happens. We have been following hurricanes since we started Caribbean-On-Line in 1995 and not much in memory comes close to this. Three named storms at once, one potential huge storm all the way across the Atlantic, and a couple of other tropical waves thrown in for good measure.
The pattern seems pretty set for September here - the tropics are hot, the water is warm, and the tropical waves keep coming off of Africa at a fairly steady clip.
Gustav is drawing to an end after making landfall today, but Hanna looks like a sleeper storm - it became better organized today and grew into a hurricane while the world was watching Gustav. Hanna could be trouble for the Bahamas and eventually the east coast of the US.
And Ike is already forecast to become a hurricane in several days and take a path somewhere across the Bahamas. We will be keeping you up to speed on it all here on the hurricane blog.
Tropical Storm Ike open thread
Tropical Storm Ike formed on September 1, 2008. Use this post to ask questions or leave comments about Ike.
Goes Floater 4 Infrared
Goes Floater 4 Infrared
Tropical Storm IKE 5 Day Cone
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2008
September is usually the peak of the hurricane season - you are seeing why:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUSTAV...LOCATED ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA...ON RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE STORM HANNA...LOCATED VERY NEAR MAYAGUANA ISLAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND ON RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE LOCATED HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.
1. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
3. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
Hanna report
A quick note from a friend in the Turks & Caicos:
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
Of course they may change that when they crunch the data later...
Hurricane Gustav downgraded to category two
So the NHC did downgrade the storm to a Category 2 before it made land fall. That is a huge difference - it could have been much worse. From the Guardian:
The National Hurricane Centre said Gustav had weakened to a category two hurricane by 8am (2pm BST) -- a storm with winds of 155-180kph (95-110 mph), which can generate a storm surge of around 2-3 metres.
Morgan City, La. Nearly Empty As Gustav Hits
Raw Video: Gustav Lashes Houma, La.
Hurricane Gustav hits US coast
From AFP, it seems like Gustav did lose a little steam before land fall:
Hurricane Gustav slide show
A slide show of Gustav images from the NY Times:
Hanna in the Bahamas
Here is a camera from Rocky Bay in the Bahamas:
The Rocky Bay webcam is located at White Sound, Elbow Cay, Abaco, The Bahamas (26.5N, 077W). The camera is facing roughly south.
Hanna in Provo
The webcam at the Provo Golf Club is still working - it looks dark, windy, and rainy at the moment - but you can tell by the palms that it isn't too bad:
The Eye of Gustav
Looks like the eye on Gustav is dead in the middle of the coast now - at about 11:45 AM EST:
The Size of the Caribbean
We are getting a lot of questions about the proximity of Gustav to Caribbean destinations - even Central American ones. It is important to note that the "Caribbean" is a large region. A big, powerful hurricane may only affect a small portion or a couple of the many major islands. The Gulf of Mexico is not the Caribbean, and the Gulf Coast of the US is not even close. Once a storm passes the "Caribbean" you can be pretty sure that no Caribbean islands are then in harms way.
The Bahamas is actually not the Caribbean either, but just a region of the Atlantic Ocean. Most storms, once they are close enough to garner TV and newspaper coverage (i.e. once the general public has heard of them), are on a pretty decided path (not always the case of course!). All you need to do is become a little familiar with the region to know whether a potential storm is going to be on a track that could spoil your vacation.
We are hearing a lot about Gustav because of the recent history of New Orleans with Katrina no doubt, and the heightened awareness is welcome. We should all be just as interested in Hanna, which could also make landfall on Georgia as a hurricane. This storm is currently in the area of the Turks and Caicos (moving away from - sort of on top of at the moment) and the Bahama Islands (moving towards). It is not much of a threat to the "Caribbean" outside of Hispaniola and Cuba.
TD 9 forms in the Atlantic
Well - I hope if anyone was traveling next week, especially to the Bahamas, they took my trip insurance post seriously. The NHC has just proclaimed TD 9, which will probably end up being Ike at some point (the track already shows it becoming a hurricane but that is a ways off).
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED PLENTLY OF CONVECTION..NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS AND A WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AT THIS TIME BUT I WOULD RATHER WAIT TO SEE IF THE DEEP CONVECTION HOLDS FOR WHILE TO CALL IT A TROPICAL STORM...PROBABLY IN THE NEXT ADVISORY. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THE WARM OCEAN ALONG ITS PATH AND THE LOW SHEAR...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.
SINCE THE DEPRESSION HAS JUST FORMED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A LITTLE BIT UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 275 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS BUILDING AND EXPANDING WESTWARD ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREFATER...AS THE HIGH BUILDS FARTHER WESTWARD...THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SINCE THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS RATHER TIGHT...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH.
Travel Insurance during Hurricane Season
I know this is a commercial plug, but it just makes a lot of sense right now. The hurricane season is very hot at the moment - there are two actively named storms, and two serious looking tropical waves/lows making their way across the Atlantic. I know from the comments that many of you are traveling to the Caribbean during the next month or so. September is the height of hurricane season - and it just makes a lot of sense to insure your trip. The prices are reasonable, and the peace of mind (not to mention the financial protection) it affords is unmeasurable. But remember - you have to have your insurance purchased before a system becomes named. With these two large unnamed systems in the Atlantic, that means if you are traveling in the next couple of weeks, the time to buy your travel insurance is NOW! We are not just trying to shamelessly plug this insurance - we really think it is worth it. We do get a commission on sales through this site and we do appreciate your business - it helps to keep the site going. Thanks and good luck if you are traveling in September.
(PS - here is a real testimonial left on one of forums just last week.)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GUSTAV...LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF MAYAGUANA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 MPH.
2. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
Gustav update, September 1, 2008
At about 9 AM EST Gustav was just a bit off the coast of Lousiana: 
Gustav does not seem to be strengthening at all, and will now degrade as it goes over land. It looks like the Gulf Coast got a little bit of break right now (relatively - this is still a major storm) - Gustav is definitely not as strong as it once was and could have been:
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
Hanna is looking very organized this morning on the satellite images. This is a tricky one so far - the NHC seems to be changing the possible intensity from update to update. It does appear to be headed for an East Coast landfall - the only question is how powerful a storm it will be:
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...A LARGE MASS OF INTENSE CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -87C HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF HANNA. NOAA BUOY 41046 JUST EAST OF THE ALLEGED CENTER HAS REPORTED 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 KT... WHICH EASILY SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT...AND HANNA COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE STRONGER BASED ON AN EARLIER PRESSURE OF 997.1 MB FROM THE SAME BUOY. A RECON AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE HANNA LATER TODAY AND PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF INTENSITY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 260/02...DUE MAINLY TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER. A 01/0224Z ASCAT OVERPASS SUGGESTED THE CENTER OF HANNA WAS FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION. IF THAT IS THE CASE...HANNA WOULD EASILY BE A 55-KT OR STRONGER TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...EARLIER PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THE MOST RECENT NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND THE CURRENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR PATTERN ALL SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION RATHER THAN EMBEDDED WITHIN IT. IN CONTRAST TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOCATION OF HANNA...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NEARLY IDENTICAL FORECAST SCENARIOS OF THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS. THE BERMUDA HIGH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY DAYS 3-5...WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND SPLITS...WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION DIGGING SOUTH OF HANNA AND THE NORTHERN PORTION LIFTING OUT AND ALLOWING RIDGING TO FILL IN BEHIND THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF HANNA. THIS COMBINED FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE HANNA TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST BY 72-96 HOURS/DAYS 3-4. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS HOW THEY HANDLE THE SIZE OF HANNA BETWEEN NOW AND 72 HOURS. THE ECMWF AND UKMET KEEP HANNA ABOUT 100 NMI IN DIAMETER SMALLER AT 500 MB THAN THE OTHER MODELS DO...WHICH RESULTS IN MORE RIDGING TO EXIST ON THE EAST SIDE OF HANNA...AND WHICH FORCES THE CYCLONE CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND LEANS A LITTLE TOWARD THE ECMWF-UKMET SCENARIOS BASED ON HANNA'S CURRENT SIZE.
LITTLE...IF ANY...STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO HOSTILE NORTHERLY SHEAR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS... ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE ALMOST IDENTICAL 200 MB FLOW PATTERNS INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REGIMES SURROUNDING HANNA. THIS TYPE OF DUAL JET PATTERN WOULD FAVOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...AND HANNA COULD EASILY BE A HURRICANE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT REMAINS BELOW ALL OF THE AVAILABLE NHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
ALL INTERESTS IN FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECASTS FOR HANNA SINCE ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE WEST OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER OF HANNA MUCH CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.
