Caribbean-On-Line's Caribbean Hurricane Blog



Hurricane Bill

HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 28

Published on August 22, 2009 9:50 AM | Comments

Bill is now a non issue for the Caribbean and past Bermuda also. This was a big storm and it was amazing that the forecast track was pretty spot on from several days ago, and that it didn't cause any major damage to the region. Heavy surf on the east coast of the US seems to be the next potential bad news from this storm until it possibly hits land somewhere in Canada before veering back out over the Atlantic.

HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009 500 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2009

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT BILL HAS JUST ABOUT FINISHED ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE... AND NOW HAS A 48 N MI WIDE EYE. THE AIRCRAFT ENCOUNTERED 120 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL...AND A DROPSONDE IN THE AREA SUGGESTS SURFACE WINDS OF 90 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 960 MB. BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 90 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.

BILL HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 345/19. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE. BILL IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR BETWEEN A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AFTER 48 HR...THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD IN THE WESTERLIES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 48 HR DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE NEW FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

BILL SHOULD REMAIN IN LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...AND THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME. AFTER 24 HR...COLDER SSTS AND INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE BILL TO WEAKEN. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT ABOUT THE 48 HR PERIOD AND BE COMPLETE BY 72 HR...AND THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF BILL ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY CROSS THE ATLANTIC.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY BILL ARE BEGINNING TO ARRIVE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...CAUSING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE MASSACHUSETTS COAST...AND THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT NOW SHOWS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THAT AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL TRACK DEVIATIONS TO THE WEST WOULD REQUIRE ADDITIONAL WARNINGS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.



Bill a monster Category Four Hurricane

Published on August 19, 2009 3:47 PM | Comments

Hurricane Bill is a large storm, and very powerful at the moment - but the good news is that it is still tracking into relatively open waters:

HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009 1100 AM AST WED AUG 19 2009

A NOAA P-3 PLANE ON A RESEARCH MISSION HAS BEEN PROVIDING EXCELLENT DATA FROM BILL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE WAS A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 132 KNOTS TWO HOURS AGO AND THE SFMR REPORTED PEAK WINDS AROUND 105 KNOTS. DATA FROM THE PLANE ALSO SHOW THAT BILL HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD AND A 30 NMI WIDE EYE. THE LATEST EXTRAPOLATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 950 MB. ALTHOUGH THE RING OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE T-NUMBERS REMAIN AROUND 6.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115 KT IN THIS ADVISORY. THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION SINCE BILL IS HEADING FOR A WARMER OCEAN AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. HOWEVER...MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY IN THIS PERIOD CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE OCEAN IS COOLER AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN... BUT BILL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH FIVE DAYS.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING CURRENTS AND BILL CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS AROUND THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...FORCING BILL TO TURN NORTHWARD A GOOD DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...WHICH IN FACT HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT IN TURNING BILL NORTHWARD FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

BECAUSE BILL IS A LARGE AND STRONG HURRICANE...SWELLS TRIGGERED BY THE HURRICANE SHOULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...BERMUDA AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.



HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 12

Published on August 18, 2009 10:13 AM | Comments

Bill is moving along the forecast track - the Caribbean looks like it will be spared. Bermuda may be in trouble in the coming days however.

HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009 500 AM AST TUE AUG 18 2009

...BILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.7 WEST OR ABOUT 810 MILES... 1305 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND BILL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION... LOCATION...15.5N 49.7W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.



Hurricane Bill to Be Major, But Projected Path Is Hazy

Published on August 17, 2009 3:47 PM | Comments

From National Geographic: Hurricane Bill to Be Major, But Projected Path Is Hazy



BILL NOW A HURRICANE

Published on August 17, 2009 6:08 AM | Comments

HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009 500 AM AST MON AUG 17 2009

...BILL NOW A HURRICANE...THE FIRST OF THE 2009 ATLANTIC SEASON...

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1160 MILES ...1870 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

BILL IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND BILL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION... LOCATION...13.8N 44.0W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 22 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.



BILL STRENGTHENING

Published on August 16, 2009 4:19 PM | Comments

TROPICAL STORM BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009 1100 AM AST SUN AUG 16 2009

...BILL STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1555 MILES...2500 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND BILL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION... LOCATION...12.1N 38.4W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.



Tropical Storm Bill 5 Open Thread

Published on August 16, 2009 4:05 PM | Comments

Use this thread to ask questions or leave comments on Tropical Storm (or hurricaen) Bill.



Tropical Storm Bill 5 Day Cone

Published on August 16, 2009 4:02 PM | Comments