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August 31, 2009
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
Area 1 is looking better organized and the conditions appear favorable:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
You can get travel insurance and still be covered up until a system is formed - so if you are on the fence about it and have a Caribbean trip coming up, now would be a good time! CSA Travel Insurance insurance
August 28, 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009
This is still looking like it will develop - and now another large pulse seems to be right behind it:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM DANNY...LOCATED ABOUT 355 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
August 27, 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2009
Area 1 is looking like it could become an issue. There isn't much information on the potential track however at this point. We'll be watching it closely:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANNY...LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
1. A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT
350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
August 26, 2009
TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
This is looking like an east coast U.S. or Canadian storm as far as who has to worry - it is disorganized at the moment, but the forecast models do have it becoming a hurricane.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT DANNY IS VERY DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE IN A BAND 100-150 N MI FROM THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 1500 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 49 KT AND ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 40-45 KT FROM THE SFMR. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT. THE AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 300/10...UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THE STORM SEEMS TO BE DECELERATING...AND THE CENTER MAY BE OCCASIONALLY RE-FORMING DUE TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. DANNY IS NORTH OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA AND SOUTHWEST OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTER EAST OF BERMUDA. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER DANNY GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO. AFTER THAT...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES MOVING EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE DANNY TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES. WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE SCENARIO...THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT LAND AREA DANNY MAY AFFECT. THE ECMWF... UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST THE CENTER TO PASS NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AND THEN MAKE LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS AND GFDL SHOW THE CENTER PASSING EAST OF HATTERAS AND THEN PASSING NEAR OR OVER CAPE COD. THE HWRF AND NOGAPS...AS WELL AS THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODELS...SHOW THE CENTER PASSING EAST OF CAPE COD AND NEAR OR OVER NOVA SCOTIA. OVERALL..THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE U. S. EAST COAST...AND ANY DEVIATION FROM THE TRACK COULD MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN WHAT AREAS GET IMPACTED BY DANNY. THEREFORE...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS TOO MUCH ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL LOWS NORTH AND SOUTH OF DANNY CONNECTED BY A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS. THIS IS NOT A IDEAL PATTERN FOR STRENGTHENING...AND IT MAY TAKE 24 HR OR MORE FOR THE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. IN ADDITION...THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE STORM FAVORS SLOW STRENGTHENING AT BEST. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 36 HR. IT THEN SHOWS A FASTER STRENGTHENING FROM 36-48 HR AS CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. AFTER 48 HR...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN U. S. TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE INCREASED SHEAR AND INITIATE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WHICH COULD START BEFORE DANNY REACHES THE LATITUDE OF NEW ENGLAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DANNY TO REACH 65 KT IN 72 HR...THEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 96 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS WEAKER THAN THE FORECASTS OF THE GFDL AND HWRF.
Tropical Storm Danny 5 Day Cone
Tropical Storm Danny Open Thread
Tropical Storm Danny has formed north of the Caribbean region. This storm looks like it will track in between the Bahamas and Bermuda, just like Hurricane Bill did. Use this thread to discuss Danny.
August 25, 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2009
It is looking like area 1 from the previous post is going to become a named storm - the models seem to think so. Good news is that is looks like it will be clear of the Caribbean:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE WAVE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 20 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST AT THE BORDER BETWEEN COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Disturbance in the Atlantic
The are marked #1 is a little better organized and the chances of it becoming a TD have been upgraded by the NHC:
August 22, 2009
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
Bill is now a non issue for the Caribbean and past Bermuda also. This was a big storm and it was amazing that the forecast track was pretty spot on from several days ago, and that it didn't cause any major damage to the region. Heavy surf on the east coast of the US seems to be the next potential bad news from this storm until it possibly hits land somewhere in Canada before veering back out over the Atlantic.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT BILL HAS JUST ABOUT FINISHED ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE... AND NOW HAS A 48 N MI WIDE EYE. THE AIRCRAFT ENCOUNTERED 120 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL...AND A DROPSONDE IN THE AREA SUGGESTS SURFACE WINDS OF 90 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 960 MB. BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 90 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.
BILL HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 345/19. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE. BILL IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR BETWEEN A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AFTER 48 HR...THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD IN THE WESTERLIES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 48 HR DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE NEW FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
BILL SHOULD REMAIN IN LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...AND THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME. AFTER 24 HR...COLDER SSTS AND INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE BILL TO WEAKEN. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT ABOUT THE 48 HR PERIOD AND BE COMPLETE BY 72 HR...AND THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF BILL ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY CROSS THE ATLANTIC.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY BILL ARE BEGINNING TO ARRIVE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...CAUSING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE MASSACHUSETTS COAST...AND THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT NOW SHOWS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THAT AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL TRACK DEVIATIONS TO THE WEST WOULD REQUIRE ADDITIONAL WARNINGS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
August 19, 2009
Bill a monster Category Four Hurricane
Hurricane Bill is a large storm, and very powerful at the moment - but the good news is that it is still tracking into relatively open waters:
A NOAA P-3 PLANE ON A RESEARCH MISSION HAS BEEN PROVIDING EXCELLENT DATA FROM BILL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE WAS A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 132 KNOTS TWO HOURS AGO AND THE SFMR REPORTED PEAK WINDS AROUND 105 KNOTS. DATA FROM THE PLANE ALSO SHOW THAT BILL HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD AND A 30 NMI WIDE EYE. THE LATEST EXTRAPOLATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 950 MB. ALTHOUGH THE RING OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE T-NUMBERS REMAIN AROUND 6.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115 KT IN THIS ADVISORY. THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION SINCE BILL IS HEADING FOR A WARMER OCEAN AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. HOWEVER...MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY IN THIS PERIOD CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE OCEAN IS COOLER AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN... BUT BILL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH FIVE DAYS.
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING CURRENTS AND BILL CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS AROUND THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...FORCING BILL TO TURN NORTHWARD A GOOD DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...WHICH IN FACT HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT IN TURNING BILL NORTHWARD FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
BECAUSE BILL IS A LARGE AND STRONG HURRICANE...SWELLS TRIGGERED BY THE HURRICANE SHOULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...BERMUDA AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
August 18, 2009
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
Bill is moving along the forecast track - the Caribbean looks like it will be spared. Bermuda may be in trouble in the coming days however.
...BILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.7 WEST OR ABOUT 810 MILES... 1305 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND BILL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION... LOCATION...15.5N 49.7W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.
August 17, 2009
Hurricane Bill to Be Major, But Projected Path Is Hazy
From National Geographic: Hurricane Bill to Be Major, But Projected Path Is Hazy
BILL NOW A HURRICANE
...BILL NOW A HURRICANE...THE FIRST OF THE 2009 ATLANTIC SEASON...
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1160 MILES ...1870 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
BILL IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND BILL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION... LOCATION...13.8N 44.0W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 22 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.
Looking better for the Caribbean
Tropical Storm Ana has been downgraded again to a tropical depression and is blowing through the region south of St. Croix early Monday morning.
And Tropical Storm Bill, while still forecast to become a major storm, looks like it is tracking to miss the Caribbean basin. So while still not out of the woods totally the situation is looking much better than it did 36 hours ago.
Note - Bill is now a Hurricane:
August 16, 2009
BILL STRENGTHENING
...BILL STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1555 MILES...2500 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND BILL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION... LOCATION...12.1N 38.4W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.
ANA POORLY ORGANIZED
CORRECTED FOR SPACING IN SUMMARY SECTION
...AIRCRAFT FINDS ANA POORLY ORGANIZED...BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...MONTSERRAT... ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...ST. MARTIN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...DOMINICA...GUADELOUPE...AND ST. BARTHELEMY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES ...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.8 WEST OR ABOUT 240 MILES...385 KM...EAST OF THE DOMINICA.
ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 25 MPH...40 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK ANA SHOULD REACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ANA IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND COULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
...SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST INFORMATION... LOCATION...14.9N 57.8W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 25 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.
Two Tropical Storms Heading West in Atlantic
Tropical Storm Bill 5 Open Thread
Use this thread to ask questions or leave comments on Tropical Storm (or hurricaen) Bill.
Tropical Storm Bill 5 Day Cone
August 15, 2009
...ANA FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
The first tropical storm of 2009 is born:
...ANA FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.8 WEST OR ABOUT 1010 MILES...1630 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK ANA COULD BE APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41041 IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION... LOCATION...14.6N 46.8W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.
Northern Caribbean islands potential threat from tropical cyclone
From Caribbean360.com:
The National Hurricane Centre has advised the northern Leeward Islands to closely follow the progress of the system which is expected to become a tropical storm on Saturday.
Looks like a busy couple of weeks ahead for the Caribbean after a very slow start to the season.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
TD 2 now appears to have reorganized and is tracking to cause havoc in the Caribbean and Bahamas:
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO REGENERATES OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO.
AT 1230 AM AST...0430 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.8 WEST OR ABOUT 1075 MILES...1735 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS WEEKEND.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON NOAA BUOY 41041 IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1230 AM AST INFORMATION... LOCATION...14.6N 45.8W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST.
August 14, 2009
TD2 and the thing behind it...
TD2 has revved up again, and the rather large disturbance behind it is expected to become stronger also.
Don't forget travel insurance if you are traveling to the region in the next few weeks - these storms do have the potential to impact the Caribbean region.
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...SLOW REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
3. A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
August 13, 2009
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 9
TD 2 isn't well organized, but it still has potential and the track has been coming more to the south, which could eventually become an issue for the Caribbean:
...DEPRESSION WEAKENS...
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.9 WEST OR ABOUT 840 MILES...1350 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL BEND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THE DEPRESSION COULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION... LOCATION...14.0N 36.9W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.
August 12, 2009
Weak TD continues west, other disturbances form
There is lots going on but nothing serious yet:
And as the anaemic cyclone gets carried in the steering currents across the Atlantic, forecasters at the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) are also monitoring a strong tropical wave just off the west African coast which is showing signs of development.
TD 2 2009 Open Thread
Use this thread to discuss and post comments on Tropical Depression 2
TD 2 2009 5 Day Cone
Tropical Depression 2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
ROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009 1100 AM AST WED AUG 12 2009
...DEPRESSION REMAINING JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.8 WEST OR ABOUT 630 MILES...1015 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION... LOCATION...14.3N 33.8W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.
August 11, 2009
More storms in the pipeline?
Some interesting comments in this article - along with this fact:
The Tropics start to heat up
The first real action of the season - there are a couple of tropical waves out there this morning - one in the Caribbean and one near it - and then there is TD 2:
...SECOND TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
FORMS...
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER
THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
AT 600 AM AST...1000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.6 WEST OR ABOUT 280
MILES...455 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN A DAY OR TWO.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 600 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.4N 28.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
The good news on TD 2 is as early as it is the track does seem to be well north of the Caribbean basin for now. We'll be keeping a close eye on all of this activity this week however.
August 10, 2009
Tropical disturbance becomes better organised
It is just off the African coast, but it seems that this system is organized enough already to be on the radar of the NHC. Again - this is a long way off and a lot can happen, but the conditions at the moment seem favorable for intensification:
The Tropical Prediction Centre (TPC) in Miami says there is a 1008MB low pressure area located along a tropical wave at 14 north and 23 west that is generating clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong showers.
"Satellite imagery indicates a well defined low/mid level cyclonic circulation," the TPC says.
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