Caribbean-On-Line » Caribbean Hurricanes » Caribbean Weather News » TD2 and the thing behind it...
August 14, 2009
TD2 and the thing behind it...
TD2 has revved up again, and the rather large disturbance behind it is expected to become stronger also.
Don't forget travel insurance if you are traveling to the region in the next few weeks - these storms do have the potential to impact the Caribbean region.
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...SLOW REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
3. A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
It's the blob behind the remnants of TD2 that have me a bit concerned. The models all want to track it right across the USVI. But it's still very early and it's not even a TD yet, so things can change. Hope so...
Posted on August 14, 2009 10:42 AM
Yes that thing has the potential to be a monster it seems - but it is very far off. We'll see I guess :)
Posted on August 14, 2009 10:53 AM
Going to Cancun on Tuesday Aug. 18th. Should I be worried about what's forming behind TD2. Any learned opinions on the likely hood of it heading west/north along the Mayan Riviera?
Posted on August 14, 2009 6:22 PM
Jim that storm, if it ever was to make into the Gulf, is probably weeks away. And it doesn't seem likely from any early guidance to be near that area. If anything the path would most likely be similar to the current TD2 which is now forecast to become at least a tropical storm and head towards the Bahamas. Of course - anything can still happen!
Posted on August 15, 2009 2:03 AM