Caribbean-On-Line » Caribbean Hurricanes » Caribbean Weather News » TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2009
August 25, 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 800 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2009
It is looking like area 1 from the previous post is going to become a named storm - the models seem to think so. Good news is that is looks like it will be clear of the Caribbean:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE WAVE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 20 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST AT THE BORDER BETWEEN COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
