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September 25, 2009
Tropical Depression 8 forms in the Atlantic
TD 8 has formed but at the moment the forecast has it meandering harmlessly in the open Atlantic. We'll keep an eye on it and send out more alerts if the situation changes.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED SUFFICIENT CONVECTION AND CIRCULATION TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES BASED ON BANDING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND 25 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO GOOD IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING 10-15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AFTER 12 HR OR SO...WITH THE FORECAST TRACK LIKELY TAKING THE CYCLONE NEAR AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BY 48 HR. THIS...COMBINED WITH A TONGUE OF COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE ENCOUNTERING CONDITIONS THAT SHOULD CAUSE DISSIPATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 12 HR...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HR AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 96 HR.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/12. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS GENERAL MOTION TOWARD AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAKNESS IN THE LOW/MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO...THEN TURN NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS BEFORE DISSIPATION.
September 19, 2009
Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Area 2 looking like more of an issue:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED... CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.
2. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
3. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL SOON BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
September 18, 2009
A little noise to end the week
It has been very quiet this week for the "heart" of hurricane season - but a couple of things have popped back on the radar of the NHC today. Area 1 is the remains of Fred and is outside the Caribbean - area 2 is looking a little better organized though and the track is not really projected as yet. If you are heading to the Caribbean or the Bahamas in the next few days, it probably bears watching:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED IS
CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
September 14, 2009
Vacation
Sorry we were on our own vacation when the last couple of storms kicked through and were not able to update as usual. Thankfully for the region Erika and Fred were both not that big a deal. We are in the heart of the season now, and things are looking relatively quiet at the moment - just the remnants of Fred still far off in the Atlantic are on the radar.
And thanks to the posters who stepped up with some local updates from the US Virgin Islands!
September 1, 2009
Tropical Storm Erika 5 Day Cone
Tropical Storm Erika Open Thread
Use this post to discuss and ask questions about Tropical Storm Erika.
Tropical Storm Erika forms
Best case scenario for the Caribbean is that the initial track is just north of the region and along a similar route of this years storms - even north of the T&C and The Bahamas.
...ERIKA FORMS EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES ISSUED...
AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF ST. MAARTEN.
AT 5 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST.
KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA.
AT 5 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...U.S. AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST OR ABOUT 390
MILES...625 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.2N 57.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
Early track of what could be Erika
Notice the disclaimer at the bottom of this image. These are all the computer weather models at the moment. The NHC usually takes a composite view of the various models or the two or three they like best and throw out the outliers.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2009
This needs to be paid attention to:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS COULD BE DEVELOPING A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM TO SEE IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS FORMED. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR...MORE LIKELY...A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE... GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THOSE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
2. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 200 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2009
Area #1 is looking quite organized at the moment. The NHC definitely thinks this thing has potential and that the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico could be in it's path. Anyone living in the Leeward Islands should be aware of this system - the forward movement has slowed to 10 MPH currently:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...BUT IT
STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION
CENTER. HOWEVER...SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
