August 31, 2010
Hurricane Earl Time Lapse Video, Villa Serendipity, St. John
This cam is located at Villa Serendipity on St. John:
August 30, 2010
Hurricane Earl Targets Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
Images of Hurricane Earl
Here are a few images from Hurricane Earl around 5 PM EST on Monday, August 30 from the US and British Virgin Islands:
From St. John Spice:
From the Soggy Dollar Bar:
From Villa Serendipity on St. John:
And from our cam at the Crystal Palace on St. Thomas - the hurricane shutter shot! Hang in there Ronnie and everyone in the islands:
RSS Feed Hurricane Earl Threatens North Caribbean
From the VOA:
Islanders have set up emergency shelters and airlines have canceled flights as Hurricane Earl continues to churn toward the northern Caribbean. Cruise lines have diverted ships to avoid the storm's path.
Hardware stores have done a brisk business in plywood and boards as residents and hotel employees prepare to safeguard windows and doors against Earl.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said late Sunday Earl has strengthened into a category two hurricane with winds of 160 kilometers per hour. The storm is expected strengthen further.
Weather forecasters predict Earl will be a major hurricane by late Monday as it approaches the northernmost Leeward Islands.
August 29, 2010
Hurricane Earl 5 Day Cone
Hurricane Earl Open Thread
Use this thread to ask questions and leave comments about Hurricane Earl.
OUTER RAINBANDS OF EARL APPROACHING THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
2:00 PM AST Sun Aug 29
Location: 17.4°N 58.9°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 978 mb
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010
...OUTER RAINBANDS OF EARL APPROACHING THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA AND
BARBUDA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 58.9W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
BY A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE
58.9 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...
24 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
TUESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
Earl becomes hurricane, warning issued for Leeward Islands
From CNN:
Miami, Florida (CNN) -- Forecast to gain "major" Category 3 status, Hurricane Earl was bearing down on the northern Leeward Islands Sunday, the National Hurricane Center said.
Earl became a Category 1 hurricane on Sunday. As of 11 a.m. ET, its center was located about 225 miles (360 kilometers) east of Antigua and about 315 miles (510 kilometers) east of St. Martin. Packing maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 kph) and higher gusts, Earl was heading westward at near 17 mph (28 kph).
August 28, 2010
EARL HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN A HURRY
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010
...EARL HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN A HURRY...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 54.2W
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENTS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...AND
ANGUILLA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND FOR
THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.2 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL APPROACH
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE
ON SUNDAY. A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE AREA SOON AND GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY
AND SIZE OF EARL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
Earl is expected to become a hurricane within 24 hours. Here are the latest watches and warnings:
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010
...EARL CONTINUES HEADING WESTWARD AT A GOOD CLIP...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 51.2W
ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.2 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EARL COULD APPROACH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
August 25, 2010
Tropical Storm Earl Tracking Map
This is from Plymouth State University - they put a tracking forecast out earlier than the NHC:
Tropical Storm Earl
The tropics are heating up - this storm arrived ahead of forecast:
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010
THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...TROPICAL STORM EARL...HAS
FORMED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...ONE WEEK EARLIER THAN CLIMATOLOGY.
HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS
CONTINUE TO GROW AND THE CONVECTION...BOTH IN CLUSTERS AND CURVED
BANDS HAS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB
AND SAB HAVE REACHED 3.0 AND 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE INDICATING
THAT THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 35 KNOTS. MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS SHIPS GUIDANCE DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT OF
RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE LOW SHEAR
COMBINED WITH UNUSUALLY WARM OCEAN WOULD FAVOR A GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR EARL TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN ABOUT TWO DAYS.
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/14 KNOTS. MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM AFRICA TO NEAR 60 DEGREES WEST. THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL
LIKELY KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3
TO 4 DAYS. A GRADUAL TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE REACHES THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FIVE DAY FORECAST
POSITION WAS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT...AND IS BASICALLY ON
TOP OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF LOCATION FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. THIS WAS
BASED ON THE REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF THESE TWO RELIABLE MODELS
IN FIVE DAYS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A
LITTLE BIT...THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS TO
THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. LETS SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN THE
NEXT MODEL CYCLE.
