Caribbean-On-Line's Caribbean Hurricane Blog



Tropical Storm Colin

Tropical Storm Colin

Published on August 7, 2010 6:18 PM | Comments

Tropical Storm Colin is a weak tropical storm, but it is forecast to track fairly close to Bermuda, bring windy conditions and probably some significant rainfall. As most followers of our site know, we usually don't track storms once they are out of the Caribbean region - but - since this storm is so near the island of Bermuda we decided to post this update.

TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 PM AST SAT AUG 07 2010

IT HAS BEEN INTERESTING TO OBSERVE THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER AND THE DEEP CONVECTION TODAY. DURING THE MORNING THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS COMPLETELY EXPOSED AND AS NEW CONVECTION
FORMED...THE CENTER SHIFTED EASTWARD AND BECAME TUCKED INTO THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EVEN THE OUTFLOW BEGAN TO EXPAND...GIVING THE
IMPRESSION THAT THERE WAS A DEVELOPING TREND. HOWEVER...DATA
FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS RISEN AND THE WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED. IN FACT...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT GENEROUSLY AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON ONE
SFMR OBSERVATION OF 34 KNOTS. SHIPS MODEL AS WELL AS THE GFDL/HWRF
PAIR SUGGEST THAT COLIN WILL AT LEAST KEEP ITS TROPICAL STORM
STATUS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW SHEAR FOR A DAY OR SO...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST ALSO KEEPS COLIN AS A TROPICAL STORM A LITTLE LONGER.
HOWEVER...THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. AFTER 48
HOURS...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND ABSORBED BY A
LARGER MID-LATITUDE LOW. IN FACT...MOST OF THE MODELS DO NOT EVEN
TRACK COLIN BEYOND 3 DAYS.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN MEANDERING ALL MORNING BUT LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES
AND DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT COLIN IS
BEGINNING A SLOW NORTHERLY TRACK AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS OR LESS. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IT SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE
TO THE NORTHEAST EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
CONSISTENTLY TAKES COLIN NORTHWARD AND INDEED ALL MODELS BRING THE
CENTER JUST WEST OF BERMUDA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND SO DOES THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. ON THIS TRACK...MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND SQUALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH COLIN WILL BE AFFECTING BERMUDA SINCE THEY ARE IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.



TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 6

Published on August 3, 2010 4:42 PM | Comments

Colin seems weak and disorganized at the moment - as well as on a track north of the Caribbean. So for now, good news all around:

TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010

...RAPIDLY MOVING COLIN DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE
AREA....


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 53.8W
ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF COLIN.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM COLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.8
WEST. THE REMNANTS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 35
MPH...56 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE REMNANTS OF COLIN ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.